Non-Soto FA thread

[Stratos]

Any non-Soto FA's you guys would like the Cubs to target?

I like Max Fried a lot, especially with our INF defense and his high GB%.  Snell got 5/125 last year, Nola got 6/150, Rodon got 6/162, so Fried will be in that range. 

Wicks could try out as our #5 and Assad/Brown in the pen.  If Wicks struggles a bit we can try one of those other 2 in the #5 slot.

[Cuzi]

Max Fried isn't a big enough upgrade to tempt the Cubs to pull the trigger on a QO free agent, especially with the additional penalties this year.

Outside of Soto and relief pitchers I dont really care. There's nothing besides catcher that the team can offer a spot to start, and I'd rather use some of these prospects to trade for one than go the FA route.

AJ Minter and Jose Leclerc are a couple under the radar relievers I'd like the Cubs to go after.

[Backtobanks]

After getting a top SP, I would like them to sign Bieber for 2026 (or maybe late 2025).

[squally1313]

8 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Max Fried isn't a big enough upgrade to tempt the Cubs to pull the trigger on a QO free agent, especially with the additional penalties this year.

 

It’s a fifth round pick and $500k of international money for a GM that everyone believes needs to make the playoffs or he’s gone. I can’t imagine that would be the line in the sand. 

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It’s a fifth round pick and $500k of international money for a GM that everyone believes needs to make the playoffs or he’s gone. I can’t imagine that would be the line in the sand. 

You realize just a 2nd round pick has been a line in the sand, correct?

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You realize just a 2nd round pick has been a line in the sand, correct?

 

it wasn't for signing Dansby Swanson, and Fried's likely going to end up in that neighborhood monetarily.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

it wasn't for signing Dansby Swanson, and Fried's likely going to end up in that neighborhood monetarily.

Dansby Swanson was arguably the best defensive SS in the game. He was the 6th best in fWAR over the span of the previous 2 seasons with only 1 SS being more than 1 WAR better. 3 of the SS's ahead of him were Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. Outside of that FA and a rumored offer to Ohtani, the Cubs haven't been linked to QO FAs.

There's also a handful of SP in this FA that was in the same tier of pitcher that Max Fried is and won't be offered a QO for varying reasons like Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty. Then you have guys that are better coming off TJS like Shane Bieber who happened to pitch for our lovely small market GMs team.

Dansby Swanson was one of the best SS's in baseball. The Cubs already have 2 Max Fried's.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Dansby Swanson was arguably the best defensive SS in the game. He was the 6th best in fWAR over the span of the previous 2 seasons with only 1 SS being more than 1 WAR better. 3 of the SS's ahead of him were Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. Outside of that FA and a rumored offer to Ohtani, the Cubs haven't been linked to QO FAs.

There's also a handful of SP in this FA that was in the same tier of pitcher that Max Fried is and won't be offered a QO for varying reasons like Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty. Then you have guys that are better coming off TJS like Shane Bieber who happened to pitch for our lovely small market GMs team.

Dansby Swanson was one of the best SS's in baseball. The Cubs already have 2 Max Fried's.

I like Kikuchi and Eovaldi fine as targets, but they aren't the same caliber of pitcher as Fried, who has shown greater peak production and (crucially for a multi-year contract) consistency, especially relative to 2025+ expectations given the ages of the players.

Also the Cubs had an elite defensive SS already when they signed Swanson! Hoerner was 2nd in SS OAA/FRV in 2022, and there's way more opportunity to have additional impact from a 'redundant' SP than there is a middle infielder.

If you want a more legitimate reason a QO FA may not be coming, it's that Jed(and most of the front offices folks admire) generally do not sign one without having one of their own to mitigate the pick cost.  But either way it is not an uncrossable line in the sand.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I like Kikuchi and Eovaldi fine as targets, but they aren't the same caliber of pitcher as Fried, who has shown greater peak production and (crucially for a multi-year contract) consistency, especially relative to 2025+ expectations given the ages of the players.

Also the Cubs had an elite defensive SS already when they signed Swanson! Hoerner was 2nd in SS OAA/FRV in 2022, and there's way more opportunity to have additional impact from a 'redundant' SP than there is a middle infielder.

If you want a more legitimate reason a QO FA may not be coming, it's that Jed(and most of the front offices folks admire) generally do not sign one without having one of their own to mitigate the pick cost.  But either way it is not an uncrossable line in the sand.

Max Fried's peak was 4.9 fWAR. Nathan Eovaldi's peak was 5.7 fWAR.

Fried is a 3 WAR pitcher and he's going to be 31. He's no spring chicken.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Dansby Swanson was arguably the best defensive SS in the game. He was the 6th best in fWAR over the span of the previous 2 seasons with only 1 SS being more than 1 WAR better. 3 of the SS's ahead of him were Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. Outside of that FA and a rumored offer to Ohtani, the Cubs haven't been linked to QO FAs.

There's also a handful of SP in this FA that was in the same tier of pitcher that Max Fried is and won't be offered a QO for varying reasons like Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty. Then you have guys that are better coming off TJS like Shane Bieber who happened to pitch for our lovely small market GMs team.

Dansby Swanson was one of the best SS's in baseball. The Cubs already have 2 Max Fried's.

I understand the impulse because the fanbase craps on him constantly but I'm not badmouthing Dansby Swanson.  Fried is likely to end up in that 7/$175 like Swanson two years ago or Aaron Nola last year.  That's a tier of player where you don't really sweat a second rounder, and we saw that with Jed signing Dansby.

And Fried is better than those free agent pitchers.  Not by a ton in '24, but he has a track record of pitching at this level while those other guys still have some fear of regression.  We already saw it with Flaherty, pitched like a legitimate ace in Detroit then came back down to earth as a Dodger.  On the other hand among pitchers with at least 300 innings the last three years Fried is 2nd in ERA behind Michael King (a reliever for half that stretch), 4th in FIP, and 5th in xFIP.  I'm a bit worried about his elbow, but performance wise he is a true ace by all but the absolute strictest of definitions.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As for the FA I want, I'm most interested in Clay Holmes and Danny Jansen.  I'm not enamored with the options for the 2 main additions(bat and SP), so I'd like one of those to come via trade(both would be great but probably unrealistic). What that trade is informs what the other FA target would be, for example trading for Brent Rooker means different things for the resources to use on a SP than Josh Naylor.

[Rcal10]

I think Eovaldi/Flahery is way more likely than Fried. Besides the QO, I think the length of the contract needed for Fried versus Eovaldi comes into play. Maybe not with Flaherty. I  also think they would rather have a right handed starter. I don’t see the top 3 pitchers in the rotation being left handed. Plus Wicks will get some starts. For me, there are too many reasons Jed would go after Fried. If not Eovaldi/Flaherty I would guess a trade for a starter is more likely than Fried, as well. 

[Cuzi]

27 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I understand the impulse because the fanbase craps on him constantly but I'm not badmouthing Dansby Swanson.  Fried is likely to end up in that 7/$175 like Swanson two years ago or Aaron Nola last year.  That's a tier of player where you don't really sweat a second rounder, and we saw that with Jed signing Dansby.

And Fried is better than those free agent pitchers.  Not by a ton in '24, but he has a track record of pitching at this level while those other guys still have some fear of regression.  We already saw it with Flaherty, pitched like a legitimate ace in Detroit then came back down to earth as a Dodger.  On the other hand among pitchers with at least 300 innings the last three years Fried is 2nd in ERA behind Michael King (a reliever for half that stretch), 4th in FIP, and 5th in xFIP.  I'm a bit worried about his elbow, but performance wise he is a true ace by all but the absolute strictest of definitions.

I'm not comfortable calling a guy an ace who's only standout trait is limiting hard contact while being league average in literally every other measure. There's a reason why he famously implodes in the playoffs.

[squally1313]

50 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

There's a reason why he famously implodes in the playoffs.

Is it small sample size?

[thawv]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

It’s a fifth round pick and $500k of international money for a GM that everyone believes needs to make the playoffs or he’s gone. I can’t imagine that would be the line in the sand. 

For the Cubs, it's a 2nd, 5th and 1 million in IFA money. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

For the Cubs, it's a 2nd, 5th and 1 million in IFA money. 

I was focusing on the 'additional penalties' part of the original statement, but, fair, I didn't do a good job of separating those two. 

[Cuzi]

36 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Is it small sample size?

That's generally how it works in the playoffs. But he's been as consistently bad in the playoffs as he's been good in the regular season.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

I was focusing on the 'additional penalties' part of the original statement, but, fair, I didn't do a good job of separating those two. 

No big deal.  But this hasn't been something that Jed has ever done.  He feel the picks and IFA money are more important than paying for a great player for some reason. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

No big deal.  But this hasn't been something that Jed has ever done.  He feel the picks and IFA money are more important than paying for a great player for some reason. 

He's signed a guy with a QO, Dansby, as mentioned above. If you're specifically talking about the additional penalties, sure, but to my knowledge we've never faced this additional incremental penalty (setting aside how punitive people view it as), so saying it's something he's never done before doesn't mean anything. Unless I'm missing something. 

[Bertz]

Some assorted player groups in FA that I like:

Lefty Mashers (Bellinger Replacements):

If Bellinger leaves we need a full time player to replace him.  Ideally he'd be a RF or DH to serve as a 1 for 1 replacement, and ideally he'd be more offensively minded (specifically against lefties). 

Over the last three years, Tyler O'Neill has been the 8th best hitter in the league against lefties, more or less tied with Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt.  He's also a roughly average corner outfielder (his numbers this year a bit rough because LF in Fenway takes some getting used to) so you could leave Seiya Suzuki as a nearly full time DH. 

Teoscar Hernandez is similar, 19th best against lefties but better against righties to make up for it.  Defensively he grades out well in right and very poorly in left which is...weird.

Lefty Mashers (Bellinger Compliments):

If Bellinger stays, we still need a much much better option than Wisdom as our designated lefty killing bench bat.  A few that stands out to me are Ryan Mountcastle (likely but not certain to be non-tendered), Carlos Santana. and Mark Canha.

Old Relievers:

Kenley Jansen and David Robertson are two of the best most consistent relief pitchers in the world.  Kirby Yates and Chris Martin have lesser resumes but are not that far behind.  Purely because of their age they will all settle for 1 or maybe 2 year deals, and I'm of the opinion that pitcher risk is only nominally higher for older players.  Especially if Bellinger opts out and money is fairly plentiful I'd try and grab two of these four

Old-ish SPs:

Similar to the RPs above, Nate Eovaldi is a consistently strong SP who is effective, healthy, and playoff battle-tested.  He will likely be limited to a 3 year deal purely for age reasons, but his ability and velocity would compliment our rotation nicely.

Yusei Kikuchi is very much NOT a model of consistency.  But he made some straightforward tweaks after his mid season trade to the Astros and pitched like a full blown ace immediately after the trade.  He'll be 34 next year and two months of ace-itude isn't definitive, but he feels like a guy who could get 4/$100 and as early as July have everyone going "that's it!?"

[Rcal10]

41 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

He's signed a guy with a QO, Dansby, as mentioned above. If you're specifically talking about the additional penalties, sure, but to my knowledge we've never faced this additional incremental penalty (setting aside how punitive people view it as), so saying it's something he's never done before doesn't mean anything. Unless I'm missing something. 

I would like to believe Jed will not care about the penalty for signing a guy with a QO. And as you said, he did so with Dansby. However that was also the year he lost Contreras and got a pick back for him signing elsewhere. That will not be the case this year. While not wanting to lose the pick(s) without gaining an pick back, might not be the only reason not to go after Fried, that on top of having to give him a longer contract, higher AAV, and him being a 3rd lefty at the top of the rotation might be reason enough to look into Eovaldi over Fried. Eovaldi doesn’t come with the QO penalty, is a righty, will sign for less years, a lower AAV and fits what they don’t have in the rotation. A hard thrower. And he is pretty good as well. Seems to be more the type of guy Jed targets. 

[champaignchris]

I don’t love this free agent class for the Cubs outside of Soto. I don’t see much that moves the needle, especially on the position player side. 
 

They’ll probably sign a catcher like Jansen or Diaz. 
 

if Bellinger walks, maybe they sign someone like Santander or Alonso, but I suspect Bellinger stays. 
 

Adames or Bregman might be fun if they move Busch or Hoerner in a Vlad Jr or Rooker trade. 
 

After that, you’re talking about bottom of the bench back-filling to replace Wisdom, Mastrobuoni, etc. 

On the pitching side, I think they have to sign one proven starter. As much as I’d like them to make a play for Burnes, I have a hard time seeing Hoyer going after him when Flaherty and Snell will be available with no QO attached. 
 

As for relievers, the market is yuck, unless the Brewers let Williams walk for some strange reason. I’m not particularly enthusiastic about any of Estevez, Holmes or Scott. I guess I probably prefer Scott. 

Edited October 22, 2024 by champaignchris

[squally1313]

I think the overly summarized version of where I'm at right now, in a non-Soto world, is sign Flaherty, trade prospects for a somewhat controlled starting pitcher (Seattle, Miami, etc), sign a catcher, Jenson, Kelly, whatever, and then get a somewhat cheap RH bat that hits lefties. Your bullpen upgrades become Assad, Brown, and Horton and the increased likelihood that the rotation won't crap out and lead to the bullpen being overworked by May. If Bellinger opts in, that's about your $50m ($20m for Flaherty, $10m for a catcher, $5m for a bench bat, I guess go get another bullpen arm?). If he opts out, go get Teoscar or Santander at some 4/100 type deal. 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think the overly summarized version of where I'm at right now, in a non-Soto world, is sign Flaherty, trade prospects for a somewhat controlled starting pitcher (Seattle, Miami, etc), sign a catcher, Jenson, Kelly, whatever, and then get a somewhat cheap RH bat that hits lefties. Your bullpen upgrades become Assad, Brown, and Horton and the increased likelihood that the rotation won't crap out and lead to the bullpen being overworked by May. If Bellinger opts in, that's about your $50m ($20m for Flaherty, $10m for a catcher, $5m for a bench bat, I guess go get another bullpen arm?). If he opts out, go get Teoscar or Santander at some 4/100 type deal. 

Pretty much my thoughts. Maybe I pick Eovaldi over Flaherty and maybe add O’Neill in your potential bat signings if Bellinger opted out. But for the most part, this is about what I would expect too. If he opts in I would like to see Mountcastle as that right handed bench bat.
Of course they can also trade prospects for a bat and sign or trade for a second pitcher if Bellinger opts out. They have enough minor league assets to use for bigger trades IMO. And if there ever was a year to do it, this would be the year. 

[thawv]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

He's signed a guy with a QO, Dansby, as mentioned above. If you're specifically talking about the additional penalties, sure, but to my knowledge we've never faced this additional incremental penalty (setting aside how punitive people view it as), so saying it's something he's never done before doesn't mean anything. Unless I'm missing something. 

Did they not get Stl pick for Willy that season?  I could be wrong, but I thought they didn't lose a pick that season.