Non-Soto FA thread

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Jansen - 1/$8.5m to Rays. Done deal

per Robert Murray

 

About where all projections had him in terms of AAV. Interesting that the Cubs couldn't get it done for that price. Either they like someone better or he just wasn't interested in Chicago. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Seriously! WTF!!!! That was a very reasonable deal. Are we really going with that bum we signed from the Angels as a back up catcher. Why is this happening? Why does it seem they are going to trim the budget more than to just a bit below the LT line. I don’t understand it. Between talks of moving Nico and Bellinger and now even Suzuki mentioned, WTF!!!!! 

Suzuki thing has been refuted a few times various places. It's almost assuredly bad info Sherman is working on. We should probably let that one go. 

The Jansen thing is a bit frustrating but could signal that the Cubs are focused on other things at the position.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

About where all projections had him in terms of AAV. Interesting that the Cubs couldn't get it done for that price. Either they like someone better or he just wasn't interested in Chicago. 

I am going to go out on a limb here and say if the Cubs offered what TB offered him he would pick the Cubs. He is from Chicago area and was a Cubs fan growing up. Besides that who goes to a team that might play home games attended by 2,000 people instead of playing in front of 30,000+ a night. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Suzuki thing has been refuted a few times various places. It's almost assuredly bad info Sherman is working on. We should probably let that one go. 

The Jansen thing is a bit frustrating but could signal that the Cubs are focused on other things at the position.

I didn’t realize that Suzuki thing was refuted. Yes, that is a good thing. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

I didn’t realize that Suzuki thing was refuted. Yes, that is a good thing. 

Yeah, George Offman said it wasn't happening and a few people have suggested the Cubs aren't trading Suzuki. I have zero concern they're trying to trade Seiya. He also has a NTC. Sherman is probably just confused, or working on bad information. It's been the only report on it. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Guess Thaiss really is their guy

[Bertz]

I wonder if Jansen didn't want to go somewhere with such a capable counterpart to fight for playing time.

Sign Kelly and it's not harm no foul.  I liked Jansen better but not appreciably.  Miss on Kelly and there's a big drop to the next guy (Elias Diaz probably?).

[KCCub]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I am going to go out on a limb here and say if the Cubs offered what TB offered him he would pick the Cubs. He is from Chicago area and was a Cubs fan growing up. Besides that who goes to a team that might play home games attended by 2,000 people instead of playing in front of 30,000+ a night. 

You just never know. 

[Tryptamine]

Jed never fails to disappointment and how the owner who brought the Cubs their first championship in a century managed to completely destroy all that goodwill in less than 10  years is just impressive.

[Bertz]

The FA catcher market basically broke down like this

- d'Arnaud is the best bat but the glove is getting dicey and he's old

- Higashioka's probably got the best glove, and he had a good '24 with the bat.  He's also old

- Jansen actually has the upside to be an impact player, but he's made of glass and was kind of ass this past year

- Kelly's generally well rounded and had the best '24.  He was a mess in '22 and '23 though which obviously was not that long ago

If none of these descriptions sound amazing it's because they're not.  The worrying thing is this is the top tier of guys, things get bleak the next tier down.  We're pretty much Kelly or bust at this point unless there's a trade option we're not considering.

[Stratos]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I wonder if Jansen didn't want to go somewhere with such a capable counterpart to fight for playing time.

Sign Kelly and it's not harm no foul.  I liked Jansen better but not appreciably.  Miss on Kelly and there's a big drop to the next guy (Elias Diaz probably?).

Make sense if he wanted to be the #1 catcher somewhere to get playing time.

Amaya started 107 games at catcher.  Matt Thaiss is not going to be our 3rd catcher with no options left.  He's either our #2 or he's going to traded/DFA'd.

Edited December 6, 2024 by Stratos

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Make sense if he wanted to be the #1 catcher somewhere to get playing time.

Amaya started 107 games at catcher.  Matt Thaiss is not going to be our 3rd catcher with no options left.  He's either our #2 or he's going to traded/DFA'd.

He's on a split contract so this is verifiably inaccurate.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Amaya started 107 games at catcher.  Matt Thaiss is not going to be our 3rd catcher with no options left.  He's either our #2 or he's going to traded/DFA'd.

Thaiss' contract is specifically structured to incentivize him accepting outright assignment.  Unless a team has an injury and they really want him to be their backup catcher on opening day, Thaiss will make more by staying in Iowa off the 40 man roster.

[squally1313]

This is the same guy, right?

 

[Tryptamine]

Starting to feel like there's a pretty decent chance the Cubs enter 2025 worse on paper than when they entered 2024.

[Jason Ross]

I think there's a little too much fear and panic. I don't want to get into defending "we trieds" but it's December 6th and the WM's haven't even happened. @Matthew Truebloodconfirmed that the Crochet stuff wasn't a nothing burger (if you haven't read his first page article on it, it's worthwhile) and that there was some real work done in that area. Clearly the Cubs were attempting to get a good (possibly very good) player into the fold. It hasn't worked out so far, but there's also a lot of time to go. That type of creativity is good to see. Hope he can continue to use it.

The backup catcher thing is...a bit worrisome simply because of the lack of options. Jansen was horrid last year and saw a lot of his hitting metrics drop off significantly. Wouldn't be the craziest thing to think injuries caught up a catcher. He's a worthwhile gamble I'd have taken, but alas, I'll survive without him. They do need to fix that spot, and I too hope it's not a Matt Thaiss situation. Based on his split deal, it feels like the Cubs don't want to go that route if they don't have to (they were reportedly in on Danny Jansen).

I'll let Jed cook here a bit longer before I'm afraid that the man headed into his contract season is running it back with the same ol' same ol'.

[Stratos]

57 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Thaiss' contract is specifically structured to incentivize him accepting outright assignment.  Unless a team has an injury and they really want him to be their backup catcher on opening day, Thaiss will make more by staying in Iowa off the 40 man roster.

Nice, thank you.

[Bertz]

The team already projects back in the same ~83 win range they've been stuck in.  Unless they trade Bellinger and just call it a winter they're going to be ahead of last year on paper.  It's probably not going to be by as much as we'd like but it'll be a noticeably better roster.

[Stratos]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The team already projects back in the same ~83 win range they've been stuck in.  Unless they trade Bellinger and just call it a winter they're going to be ahead of last year on paper.  It's probably not going to be by as much as we'd like but it'll be a noticeably better roster.

Yeah, they get a full year from Parades over Morel, and Boyd and whatever RP and catcher they sign can't only do better than Hendricks, Neris, and Gomes.

If they make a trade they may add wins as well.  There's definitely a path to 85-88 wins.  But Busch/Imanaga could regress a bit as should Taillon, plus Nico from the injury.  I'd peg them at 85 wins.

Edited December 6, 2024 by Stratos

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Stratos said:

Yeah, they get a full year from Parades over Morel, and Boyd and whatever RP and catcher they sign can't only do better than Hendricks, Neris, and Gomes.

If they make a trade they may add wins as well.  There's definitely a path to 85-88 wins.  But Busch/Imanaga could regress a bit as should Taillon, plus Nico from the injury.  I'd peg them at 85 wins.

I'd definitely take the under.

[bddavidson]

21 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Other than Kelly, James McCann is a passable FA option IIRC. Another one year guy probably…I don’t even really hate Grandal, maybe the single most underrated player of the 2010s 

Not that it likely matters, but I'm pretty sure Grandal is a verifiable bag in the clubhouse.  

[Post Count Padder]

I said in another thread this is a bummer, as I really wanted Higashioka or Jansen. There are some other options out there but kinda meh. Now I'm thinking Carson Kelly is going elsewhere. I really want to believe Thaiss was just a safeguard in case the catching market didn't shape up well and he wasn't intended to be our No. 2.

As an aside, the Rays did really well here. One year prove it deal for a reasonable salary and they consistently have among the worst hitting catchers in baseball. This helps them a bit in that division.

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Yeah, they get a full year from Parades over Morel, and Boyd and whatever RP and catcher they sign can't only do better than Hendricks, Neris, and Gomes.

If they make a trade they may add wins as well.  There's definitely a path to 85-88 wins.  But Busch/Imanaga could regress a bit as should Taillon, plus Nico from the injury.  I'd peg them at 85 wins.

85 is probably the auto-pilot number, what they'll hit without really taking any big swings.  They're at 82-83 wins right now, and have ~$30M to spend.  That $30M buys you on average about 4 WAR on the FA market, but because the Cubs (thankfully) don't have a lot of replacement level players on the roster 4 WAR does not cleanly net out to 4 Wins.

87-88 wins takes a trade of substance or two, but it's doable.  I don't see a path to the mythical 90 win projection without Jed really going outside himself, but 88 wins with a loaded Iowa roster in this division would have me pretty happy heading into the year.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

85 is probably the auto-pilot number, what they'll hit without really taking any big swings.  They're at 82-83 wins right now, and have ~$30M to spend.  That $30M buys you on average about 4 WAR on the FA market, but because the Cubs (thankfully) don't have a lot of replacement level players on the roster 4 WAR does not cleanly net out to 4 Wins.

87-88 wins takes a trade of substance or two, but it's doable.  I don't see a path to the mythical 90 win projection without Jed really going outside himself, but 88 wins with a loaded Iowa roster in this division would have me pretty happy heading into the year.

Really it's Sasaki to get to 90. We got 2.8 fWAR from the starters not named Steele/Shota/Taillon last year (in 388 innings). Boyd helps. Another top line guy in the rotation is still the best bang for your buck in terms of replacement value.  

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Seriously! WTF!!!! That was a very reasonable deal. Are we really going with that bum we signed from the Angels as a back up catcher. Why is this happening? Why does it seem they are going to trim the budget more than to just a bit below the LT line. I don’t understand it. Between talks of moving Nico and Bellinger and now even Suzuki mentioned, WTF!!!!! 

How about a couple of trades:

Trade 1 -Hoerner, Wicks, Wesneski, Thaiss, and Murray for Woo and Garver.

Trade 2- Triantos, Alcantara, + Palencia for Lowe + Fairbanks.

(Added benefit - Woo's last name added to Imanaga and Suzuki helps convince Sasaki to sign with the Cubs)