Non-Soto FA thread

[Crusader]

47 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Killian is probably like. 8th, or 9th most likely to get starts. He's not very good. He's not very young. In fact, I still think it's fairly likely he's not on the 40-man come opening day. 

I feel like it depends on how they project him to recover. It seemed like Counsel was giving him the edge on being our 5th SP until he got injured. If he’s already broken though, then someone else gets a shot. He’s kind of the equivalent for SP to Ethen Roberts. Roberts looked nasty in ST that one year when he was bringing it 95 with that slider, and much less nasty this year when it was sitting closer to 92.

Edited December 3, 2024 by Crusader

[Post Count Padder]

The Rangers scooped up Higashioka. I know there are other catchers out there but he was a good fit here. Bummer. 

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Crusader said:

I feel like it depends on how they project him to recover. It seemed like Counsel was giving him the edge on being our 5th SP until he got injured. If he’s already broken though, then someone else gets a shot. He’s kind of the equivalent for SP to Ethen Roberts. Roberts looked nasty in ST that one year when he was bringing it 95 with that slider, and much less nasty this year when it was sitting closer to 92.

I have no idea where you would get the feeling that he was being set up by Counsel to jump Wicks and Assad as the presumptive 5th starter. I guess we all see what we see, but I'm fairly certain you're on your own there. 

Caleb Killian is far closer to being DFA'd than the opening day roster, let alone a rotational spot, IMO. 

And I dont think he's akin to Robert's at this stage. Killian has a heavy fastball but he's never added any other chase and whiff pitch. He's going to be 28. He might find success as a mid bullpen arm somewhere, sometime, but I'm not interested in the Cubs having him in the rotation any time soon. They'd be in dire straits with Wicks, Assad, Brown, Horton, Birdsell and potentially Pearson as more interesting and/or reliable MLB arms as of today.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That's a pretty hot take, Stratos. Would I have? I don't know, it's kind of hard to pretend we know what the big picture free agent plan looks like. We don't know what the pitching department is looking at with his pitch mix and what they think they can do. We don't have access to his medicals. Clearly predictions on his contract were right in that ballpark, so acting like "nobody" would have signed that deal is...extreme. It's like $2m AAV different from many predictions. Hoyer doesn't really seem like a guy who looks at a market and adds a 0 to the end of it, so I think it's also a bit hasty to act like Hoyer's out here overpaying on Boyd. This is probably exactly where his market is. 

I've said a few times I don't get this contract yet, and that I'm perplexed, but there's outcomes that make sense here. Like the Cubs feel internally good about how they stack up for Sasaki for some reason and Boyd's a great 6-man-guy, or like they think even if Boyd misses time, that they'll eventually have guys like Brown and Horton who can jump in more full time. There's almost assuredly another SP coming. If it's a Bryce Miller, yeah I'll be a little bummed by the rotation as I think there's too much of a risk there in thinking Boyd's going to give you 130+ IP and I'm not a massive Miller-upside-guy. But if they get someone who is clearly good enough to slot int the top-3, and you have Boyd's upside in the 4/5 spot? Yeah, that's not bad. 

There's plenty of middle ground between considering this to be flat-out stupid and thinking this is an absolute win. I'll be waiting a bit to see how the off-season plays out. It's probably best we continue to do this on every deal.

I've tried to give the benefit of the doubt on Hoyer transactions i was iffy about in past off-seasons, but my instincts have usually turned out to be correct on them.  I can't give him the benefit of the doubt here anymore.  End of the day he's got solid stuff but only putting up reliever innings with a career 4.85 ERA at age 34, so not sure what kind of late-career miracle they're looking for here.  The contract isn't particularly good even if they acquire someone else.  Maybe Lance Brozdowski will do a piece on him or something.

If he can manage something like a 3.85 ERA over 110 IP then at least he's better than Hendricks was last year, so there's that LOL

Edited December 3, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

The Rangers scooped up Higashioka. I know there are other catchers out there but he was a good fit here. Bummer. 

He's too old for me especially at catcher.  They got him fairly cheap though.  The only catcher FA I even remotely like is Jansen.  Kelly if he came cheap.  I wouldn't be shocked if Thaiss ends up our 2nd catcher.

[muntjack]

Late to the party here,  but this move is so bizarre.  Even if you accept that an injury- plagued, low-velo, 34 yr old who twice led the league in HR allowed is worth this contract, why the Cubs?  SP depth is a strength here, and while adding precious payroll to the top makes tons of sense,  adding it to the bottom is confounding.   

Are they going to move another arm? 

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

I've tried to give the benefit of the doubt on Hoyer transactions i was iffy about in past off-seasons, but my instincts have usually turned out to be correct on them.  I can't give him the benefit of the doubt here anymore.  End of the day he's got solid stuff but only putting up reliever innings with a career 4.85 ERA at age 34, so not sure what kind of late-career miracle they're looking for here.  The contract isn't particularly good even if they acquire someone else.  Maybe Lance Brozdowski will do a piece on him or something.

If he can manage something like a 3.85 ERA over 110 IP then at least he's better than Hendricks was last year, so there's that LOL

So, I'll ask you this: do you think the Chicago Cubs are unaware of his career ERA? Because I'm fairly sure the Chicago Cubs have at, the very least, heard of mlb.com and know this. So maybe we should ask "why don't the Cubs care?" and that answer is almost assuredly "because they believe the 2024 version of Mathew Boyd is the version of Mathew Boyd that they're buying". 

Cleveland pitch-labbed Boyd last year and the post-TJS version of Boyd was a different beast. He displayed a much improved slider, better location, and a lower arm angle than he had most of his career. He used his very funky mechanics coupled with these new pitches to be a very effective starter. We're talking small samples of 40 IP here, but on a per-rate basis, there's nothing that stood out as "unrepeatable" if you buy into the new pitches sticking. He didn't have insane LOB% or relied on luck where he gave up a lot of hard contact that just resulted in outs. If we look at who he most compared to last year, it was Yuki Matsui, who was also really good. Now, Matsui came out of the pen, but I think the point remains - it isn't like what Boyd was doing was some smoke mirrors game. 

At $14.5m there is risk that Boyd will not pitch enough, I get that. He's managed <80 IP since pre-covid and we shouldn't just wash over that. But if we look at his IL history it's entirely tied to the elbow that he had fixed. While it's possible that he's just prone to getting hurt, it's also possible that all of this stemmed from an elbow that was never right, and now it is. But we need to stop acting like this is some horrendous contract, too. It's two years, it's pretty much align with predictions of his market, and if you get 2024 Boyd, even for like 110 innings, he's going to crush it. 

I'll wrap it up this way: Blake Snell just got $180m this offseason from the Dodgers. Sure, it's the Dodgers, but let's put that aside for a moment. He got $180m, and he pitched 104 innings last year. He's topped 130 IP once since 2018. His career line isn't very far off (30 K%, 11 BB%, 3.19 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.57 xFIP) than what Boyd did in 2024 (27.7 K%, 7.8 BB%, 3.29 FIP, 3.89 xFIP). If you really believe in Boyd, and even if he comes in at 105 IP, you get Blake Snell at $150m as your discount. That's a dream. There's reason why Matt Boyd got $29m over 2 years and Blake Snell got what he got, mind you (the risk of injury and limited sample size) but that is another way to look at this contract. This is a bit of a gamble, and I reiterate that I don't think it can be the big addition to the rotation...but the risk here is likely worth the gamble and then some.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

Late to the party here,  but this move is so bizarre.  Even if you accept that an injury- plagued, low-velo, 34 yr old who twice led the league in HR allowed is worth this contract, why the Cubs?  SP depth is a strength here, and while adding precious payroll to the top makes tons of sense,  adding it to the bottom is confounding.   

Are they going to move another arm? 

Boyd was *very* good last year in limited time.  And it came with some pitch design changes so it would seem likely to be at least mostly permanent.

So the glass half full is this is the lesser of two SP adds, and this replaces Assad with someone a lot better on a per inning basis.  That both A) improves the MLB team and B) frees up a young SP to trade.  Also since Boyd's bugaboo is durability not talent, it should provide opportunities for Brown/Horton to get some starts.

The glass half empty is that Jed made the singular SP add this winter a speculative upside play.  He spent less on it than we expected, but not by a ton so it doesn't suddenly open up a significant number of new avenues to fill other holes.

[thawv]

11 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Who have we cut from the 40 for boyd?

There was 2 openings on the 40.  Now there's one.

[thawv]

10 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I have no idea where you would get the feeling that he was being set up by Counsel to jump Wicks and Assad as the presumptive 5th starter. I guess we all see what we see, but I'm fairly certain you're on your own there. 

Caleb Killian is far closer to being DFA'd than the opening day roster, let alone a rotational spot, IMO. 

And I dont think he's akin to Robert's at this stage. Killian has a heavy fastball but he's never added any other chase and whiff pitch. He's going to be 28. He might find success as a mid bullpen arm somewhere, sometime, but I'm not interested in the Cubs having him in the rotation any time soon. They'd be in dire straits with Wicks, Assad, Brown, Horton, Birdsell and potentially Pearson as more interesting and/or reliable MLB arms as of today.

Personally, I'd DFA all 4 guys that are out of options before I DFA Kilian.  I'd hang on to him until I have to make a 26 man roster decision with him. 

Edited December 3, 2024 by thawv

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, thawv said:

Personally, I'd DFA all 4 guys that are out of options before I DFA Kilian.  I'd hang on to him until I have to make a 26 man roster decision with him. 

I mean, there are some people I'd DFA before Killian, but there aren't many. Canario is out of options but he has more immediate need (the Cubs don't have a 4th OF'er once they dropped Tauchmann). I'm not a big Canario guy, but there's a lot quicker pathways to being MLB relevent for him than Caleb Killian at this point, and probably will only exacerbate this once the Cubs add to their bullpen (Jon Morosi tweeted yesterday that the Cubs are among the most active in that market). 

We have to divorce ourselves from the Top-100 prospect Killian looked like he was at the tail end of the 2021 season and accept that the 2025 version is a 28 year old middle relief prospect who hasn't shown a ton of growth. He might one day figure some things out, but we've been waiting years for him to develop chase and whiff pitches and it hasn't come yet. Don't DFA him immediately, but he's a lot closer to being DFA'd than he is making the Cubs OD-26. 

[thawv]

17 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I mean, there are some people I'd DFA before Killian, but there aren't many. Canario is out of options but he has more immediate need (the Cubs don't have a 4th OF'er once they dropped Tauchmann). I'm not a big Canario guy, but there's a lot quicker pathways to being MLB relevent for him than Caleb Killian at this point, and probably will only exacerbate this once the Cubs add to their bullpen (Jon Morosi tweeted yesterday that the Cubs are among the most active in that market). 

We have to divorce ourselves from the Top-100 prospect Killian looked like he was at the tail end of the 2021 season and accept that the 2025 version is a 28 year old middle relief prospect who hasn't shown a ton of growth. He might one day figure some things out, but we've been waiting years for him to develop chase and whiff pitches and it hasn't come yet. Don't DFA him immediately, but he's a lot closer to being DFA'd than he is making the Cubs OD-26. 

I agree with this.  All I'm saying is, if I need to DFA pitching to make room for other pitchers, he would be the 5th guy on my list. 

 

I think they need to cut ties with at the very leas 2-3 of pitchers before the season starts regardless of whether or not they add pitching.  I don't see any chance that of all of Merryweather, Miller, Keegan, and Rob Z being on the active roster.  Maybe only one is on the roster, and the other 3 get DFA.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, thawv said:

I agree with this.  All I'm saying is, if I need to DFA pitching to make room for other pitchers, he would be the 5th guy on my list. 

 

I think they need to cut ties with at the very leas 2-3 of pitchers before the season starts regardless of whether or not they add pitching.  I don't see any chance that of all of Merryweather, Miller, Keegan, and Rob Z being on the active roster.  Maybe only one is on the roster, and the other 3 get DFA.

Tyson Miller was very good last year, that's insane. He's a lock for 7th inning stuff.  Merryweather was signed to a split deal, and suspect the team trusts him far more as a potential MLB arm if he can get back to being healthy - we're a year removed from him being a really solid 7thj/8th guy. I'd probably rather have Keegan as well - he's had much more success at the MLB level in his time and isn't like he's much older.  Counsell seems to trust Keegan to a degree.

Rob Z is a near lock to be DFA'd. But past that, Killian doesn't have much of an argument over any other pitcher there and would be 0% surprised to see the team pick any or all over him.

[thawv]

13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Tyson Miller was very good last year, that's insane. He's a lock for 7th inning stuff.  Merryweather was signed to a split deal, and suspect the team trusts him far more as a potential MLB arm if he can get back to being healthy - we're a year removed from him being a really solid 7thj/8th guy. I'd probably rather have Keegan as well - he's had much more success at the MLB level in his time and isn't like he's much older.  Counsell seems to trust Keegan to a degree.

Rob Z is a near lock to be DFA'd. But past that, Killian doesn't have much of an argument over any other pitcher there and would be 0% surprised to see the team pick any or all over him.

Wow!!!  I can't imagine any scenario where all of Merryweather, Miller, and Keegan are on the active roster.  I'm seeing the last 3 innings as Pearson, Brown/Hodge, Hodge/Brown.  I see Morgan in the mix also.  And there's talk of them looking to add pen guys also.  Only having 8 spots is going to make it tough for these guys to hang on I believe.  I guess we'll see.

 

To pick your brain, if they don't add any other pen guys, who are your 8 guys off the current 40, and their roles?  Thanks.

[Cuzi]

Caleb Kilian sucks dude. He also has no options left. Why are we sitting here crying over him?

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, thawv said:

Wow!!!  I can't imagine any scenario where all of Merryweather, Miller, and Keegan are on the active roster.  I'm seeing the last 3 innings as Pearson, Brown/Hodge, Hodge/Brown.  I see Morgan in the mix also.  And there's talk of them looking to add pen guys also.  Only having 8 spots is going to make it tough for these guys to hang on I believe.  I guess we'll see.

 

To pick your brain, if they don't add any other pen guys, who are your 8 guys off the current 40, and their roles?  Thanks.

Active roster? I didn't say that, I was talking likelihood they make it individually. All of them may not survive the winter, but Miller is as much of a lock as any to make OD, and the other two probably are more likely to be kept over Killian based on past MLB performance. Killian isn't very good. The idea that the Cubs will keep Killian over any of them is at best a tossup. I think he's among the most likely DFA's out there. 

[thawv]

20 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Caleb Kilian sucks dude. He also has no options left. Why are we sitting here crying over him?

He has 1 option left.  If he was out of options, this wouldn't be a topic.

[thawv]

20 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Active roster? I didn't say that, I was talking likelihood they make it individually. All of them may not survive the winter, but Miller is as much of a lock as any to make OD, and the other two probably are more likely to be kept over Killian based on past MLB performance. Killian isn't very good. The idea that the Cubs will keep Killian over any of them is at best a tossup. I think he's among the most likely DFA's out there. 

Well, they have to be on the active roster if they're out of options.  So who are you putting on the active roster besides Miller from that group of 4 guys that are out of options? 

again, who are your 8 pen guys on the active roster from the current 40?

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

He has 1 option left.  If he was out of options, this wouldn't be a topic.

He has 0.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Arizona Phil is the gold standard on this stuff and he says Kilian has 1 left: https://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

Well, they have to be on the active roster if they're out of options.  So who are you putting on the active roster besides Miller from that group of 4 guys that are out of options? 

again, who are your 8 pen guys on the active roster from the current 40?

You are having a very different conversation now. This is about how likely they are to survive the winter. It's very possible none do. The likelihood that Killian does over Miller, Merriweather or Thompson is probably a coinflip at best, as the Cubs will probably add at least another SP, one to three relievers, a backup catcher and possibly another backup in the Wisdom mold. That would be three to six 40-man slots opening with no guarantee anyone on the 40-man leaves. If the Cubs would rather have Julian Merriweather on the OD roster than have Killian in Iowa, it would result in the Cubs DFA'ing the latter. 

I don't know who my 8 is. It's likely 1-3 of those aren't even on the roster today. I'm not really interested in going down that rabbit hole, it'll change so much between now and then it's not a worthwhile line of inquiry. 

[thawv]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

He has 0.

He is eligible for a 4th minor league option. 

[Bertz]

None of us wanted him back but likely a good sign that part of the market is about to start moving

 

[thawv]

12 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You are having a very different conversation now. This is about how likely they are to survive the winter. It's very possible none do. The likelihood that Killian does over Miller, Merriweather or Thompson is probably a coinflip at best, as the Cubs will probably add at least another SP, one to three relievers, a backup catcher and possibly another backup in the Wisdom mold. That would be three to six 40-man slots opening with no guarantee anyone on the 40-man leaves. If the Cubs would rather have Julian Merriweather on the OD roster than have Killian in Iowa, it would result in the Cubs DFA'ing the latter. 

I don't know who my 8 is. It's likely 1-3 of those aren't even on the roster today. I'm not really interested in going down that rabbit hole, it'll change so much between now and then it's not a worthwhile line of inquiry. 

As you know, the 4 guys mentioned can't be on the 40 and not be on the 26.  I was always referring to the active roster, and assumed that you understood that due to the options situation. 

[Cuzi]

17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Arizona Phil is the gold standard on this stuff and he says Kilian has 1 left: https://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster

I can see where the 4th year opens up for Kilian. I'm assuming he didn't accumulate enough time in 2019 when he was drafted and 2020 didn't count so 2021-24 becomes 4.??? service time.

But how does someone like Alcantara earn a 4th year option like he says? Alcantara is in the same boat as Kilian but with one of his 3 option years left, which will get used up this season with this season being his 5th year. So next year he will have accrued 5 full seasons, making him ineligible.

Edited December 3, 2024 by Cuzi