Non-Soto FA thread

[Cuzi]

Just now, CubinNY said:

then they will have to stop counting money long enough to look for a new one. I would not be one bit surprised if Jed already signed an extension that will be announced at the conventions. 

Think about how much more money they could count if they actually had a $240M roster that made the playoffs.

[Tryptamine]

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think we have to remember that his job is on the line. I don't think there's a world where Jed Hoyer is so flippant about his job security or so deluded into thinking that Boyd can get to 150 innings that that will be the opening day rotation. It's really easy to be kind of down on where the Cubs see themselves in the pecking order of teams and their aspirations, but at some point there's going to be self preservation from Jed.

Where I think we can debate on whether or not Jed Hoyer will be aggressive enough on whatever he adds to the rotation. Like, I could see him adding a cost-controlled pitcher who looks more like a #4 on paper, thinking that with the Cubs pitch lab they can fix 'em up to be better than that and save on the cost of prospects (Bryce Miller?). Jed sometimes has the feeling that he's trying to play 4D chess and I can see outcomes of whatever comes next being an example of that. I can also see him getting more self aware and really going and getting a better player, too.  But I am confident that the Cubs aren't done adding to the rotation. 

The fact that Thaiss stands a pretty good shot at being your opening day back up catcher and 1/3 of the FA money was spent on a guy who you're going to be lucky to get 100 innings from, makes me think he's not going to be too urgent about anything. 

[Bertz]

At the deadline Jed traded for Isaac Paredes and reportedly offered multiple top 100 prospects to try and add Logan O'Hoppe as well.

I think we can be clear eyed that Jed won't be as aggressive as we like while also not pretending like he's going to have his foot so far off the pedal that this was the big move of the winter.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

The fact that Thaiss stands a pretty good shot at being your opening day back up catcher and 1/3 of the FA money was spent on a guy who you're going to be lucky to get 100 innings from, makes me think he's not going to be too urgent about anything. 

Thaiss is on a split contract and I don't think that's an accident. That reads "if I can't get a better 2nd catcher, I have one" moreso than "The Cubs are definitely viewing me as the backup". If they tendered him fully with an MLB contract maybe that was the case. But I think people are way over reacting to that. It's a contract the Cubs can shed with little financial issue and can easy improve on throughout the offseason. He'd be a pretty good 3rd C in Iowa. 

Boyd...well we'll have to see. 100 innings of Boyd as a #5 could be a great thing. I remain perplexed, but the 2nd SP will make or break that signing to me. 

Offseason is early. The trades will be the deciding factor. There's a lot of time. I expect at least one trade will be made within the next two weeks.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, CubinNY said:

They will use Boyd in the pen/spot start. There is power in numbers and we saw last year, the health of pitching is not bankable. The signing is only head scratching in terms of dollars and years. 

14.5m AAV for a Smyly pen/spot starter makes no sense.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, CubinNY said:

This is a guy who gets a one-year deal worth a few million and vesting options. This is not a guy you give $15M a year to. I don't get it al all. 

Yeah maybe like 1/9m deal with team option.  2/29 is a joke.

I've defended Jed on a lot of things and have been rooting for him, but I'm tired of these types of signings instead of signing quality players. It's so easy for this deal to turn out bad.  He's 34 y/o on top of it.

I've never said i wanted Jed fired but If I owned the Cubs I'd fire Jed ASAP based on this move because its a pattern of low-level waste on fringe players.  Enough is enough.

Edited December 2, 2024 by Stratos

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Contract crowdsourcing estimated Boyd would get 2/18.  Of the estimates they made for SP that signed FA deals, they've been low by 3-4 million AAV on average.  You don't have to love Boyd, but there's not much support for him getting significantly less than he did.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, chibears55 said:

They may add one or two more arms for depth, who would they be looking to replace from the depth they have currently. 

 

 

Good to hear they're in on pen arms, not surprising.  There's a few names there I'd have no issues cutting.

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Contract crowdsourcing estimated Boyd would get 2/18.  Of the estimates they made for SP that signed FA deals, they've been low by 3-4 million AAV on average.  You don't have to love Boyd, but there's not much support for him getting significantly less than he did.

2/24 is understandable based on what guys have been getting so far.   2/29 is just nuts.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

2/24 is understandable based on what guys have been getting so far.   2/29 is just nuts.

This is very silly, you see why this is silly, right?

[Bertz]

Like there's no situation where your opinion on a move should flip like this

Over $2-3M AAV

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Contract crowdsourcing estimated Boyd would get 2/18.  Of the estimates they made for SP that signed FA deals, they've been low by 3-4 million AAV on average.  You don't have to love Boyd, but there's not much support for him getting significantly less than he did.

MLBTR had him listed as the 23rd best FA and getting 2/$25M. So not far off at all. 

Edited December 2, 2024 by Rcal10

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

If there's any positive it's that the smoke on the Cubs FA dealings has been suggesting this was going to be the case. The real moves will probably happen via trade. 

It's not been the most exciting start to the offseason in Cubland but the trades will make or break it.

I just hope they dont trade their top prospects to get players that are over 30 and on downside of career, but have a friendly contract for remaining years left on it.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

This is very silly, you see why this is silly, right?

No, the contract isnt good.  2/24 is already a lot for this guy and well above the predictions.  I don't think flushing 5-10m dollars early in the offseason for an intelligent spending GM is "silly" and i don't appreciate the condescension of your comment

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Stratos said:

No, the contract isnt good.  2/24 is already a lot for this guy and well above the predictions.  I don't think flushing 5-10m dollars early in the offseason for an intelligent spending GM is "silly" and i don't appreciate the condescension of your comment

It's really not

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

And I'm sorry but being okay with a deal at $12M per and wanting the GM fired at $14.5 is very silly.  None of the data we work with is even close to being precise enough to get worked up over that amount.

[Stratos]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's really not

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

And I'm sorry but being okay with a deal at $12M per and wanting the GM fired at $14.5 is very silly.  None of the data we work with is even close to being precise enough to get worked up over that amount.

It's not based on 1 deal if you read my post.  It's a pattern of incompetence, every offseason.  They overpay for mediocre players instead of investing in quality players.

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

It's not based on 1 deal if you read my post.  It's a pattern of incompetence, every offseason.  They overpay for mediocre players instead of investing in quality players.

I get the feeling I could that for every GM in baseball if I also just chose to willfully ignore all the good deals they did

[Stratos]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I get the feeling I could that for every GM in baseball if I also just chose to willfully ignore all the good deals they did

Hoyers done lots of good deals.  Virtually all his smaller guaranteed FA signings are trash.  Literally nobody on this forum would have signed Boyd on that contract because its stupid.

[chibears55]

Isn't this the Catcher most were hoping or thinking they'd sign?

 

https://x.com/Rangers/status/1863753881785602059?t=KFwC9agMl3HR-1ZnHlffEw&s=19

[Crusader]

I don't mind the signing at all. I could see how there could be some high upside. The concern that I have though right now is that the starting rotation still doesn't have much velo and that's a lot of lefties. It's nice that all the lefties do something different, and they all have different arm slots to give them different looks, but they still need more velo, and preferably RHP velo.

It would be nice to see Killian stepping up and taking that last spot. When he was topping out at 101 during ST he was down right nasty - you know before his arm fell off for the rest of the year. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Hoyers done lots of good deals.  Virtually all his smaller guaranteed FA signings are trash.  Literally nobody on this forum would have signed Boyd on that contract because its stupid.

That's a pretty hot take, Stratos. Would I have? I don't know, it's kind of hard to pretend we know what the big picture free agent plan looks like. We don't know what the pitching department is looking at with his pitch mix and what they think they can do. We don't have access to his medicals. Clearly predictions on his contract were right in that ballpark, so acting like "nobody" would have signed that deal is...extreme. It's like $2m AAV different from many predictions. Hoyer doesn't really seem like a guy who looks at a market and adds a 0 to the end of it, so I think it's also a bit hasty to act like Hoyer's out here overpaying on Boyd. This is probably exactly where his market is. 

I've said a few times I don't get this contract yet, and that I'm perplexed, but there's outcomes that make sense here. Like the Cubs feel internally good about how they stack up for Sasaki for some reason and Boyd's a great 6-man-guy, or like they think even if Boyd misses time, that they'll eventually have guys like Brown and Horton who can jump in more full time. There's almost assuredly another SP coming. If it's a Bryce Miller, yeah I'll be a little bummed by the rotation as I think there's too much of a risk there in thinking Boyd's going to give you 130+ IP and I'm not a massive Miller-upside-guy. But if they get someone who is clearly good enough to slot int the top-3, and you have Boyd's upside in the 4/5 spot? Yeah, that's not bad. 

There's plenty of middle ground between considering this to be flat-out stupid and thinking this is an absolute win. I'll be waiting a bit to see how the off-season plays out. It's probably best we continue to do this on every deal.

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, Crusader said:

I don't mind the signing at all. I could see how there could be some high upside. The concern that I have though right now is that the starting rotation still doesn't have much velo and that's a lot of lefties. It's nice that all the lefties do something different, and they all have different arm slots to give them different looks, but they still need more velo, and preferably RHP velo.

It would be nice to see Killian stepping up and taking that last spot. When he was topping out at 101 during ST he was down right nasty - you know before his arm fell off for the rest of the year. 

Killian is probably like. 8th, or 9th most likely to get starts. He's not very good. He's not very young. In fact, I still think it's fairly likely he's not on the 40-man come opening day. 

[LBiittner]

Who have we cut from the 40 for boyd?

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Who have we cut from the 40 for boyd?

They don't have to cut anyone until the deal is official but Kilian or Zastryzny would be the heavy favorites.

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

They don't have to cut anyone until the deal is official but Kilian or Zastryzny would be the heavy 

Thanks