Non-Soto FA thread

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Jed was hoping and praying Bellinger opted out so they could likely just use his money to add 2 mid players. 

Now they'll likely trade him for a couple of prospects, but because it might take time to move him, they may be looking at the lessers of the mid players in FA as you said.

So why not just keep him and get one mid tier player they might want now? If they were getting two after trading him why not just one and keep him? Don’t understand why he holds anything up. 

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, CubinNY said:

They want to reallocate the money toward pitching for reasons (they think their league average or slightly below offense is good). Who is to say the wind blowing in isn't the new normal with climate change? But I get it. 

The problem for Jed is that Bellinger will likely not have a market until Soto signs. So, by the time he's moved the pitching they are looking for may not be available in a trade or free agency. Jed 3D chessed himself into a nice box. 

Glad we didn't sign Bellinger to a 5+ year deal.

[Rcal10]

42 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Glad we didn't sign Bellinger to a 5+ year deal.

If they had it would have probably been for $115M or something like that. And that wouldn’t be such a big deal.  Honestly, this “Bellinger must be moved because he is ruining the entire off season narrative” is being way overblown here. 

[KCCub]

 

[Cuzi]

That's definitely the winning recipe for a 90 win team.

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

Not sure I would choose those exact 4, but it does put in perspective how it can be done within the budget. They can even add someone like Grichik for a bench bat and still be under the $53M they can spend. And this isn’t even considering a trade. I honestly think there has been way too much overreaction to the idea of having to trade Bellinger as well as the defeatist attitude that the Cubs aren’t going to do anything this off season. If they do spend what they have available they can still build a good team, even with everyone coming back in the line up. 

[UMFan83]

27 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

yeah that will save our inconsistent offense that fails to hit for months at a time.

[DrCub]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

yeah that will save our inconsistent offense that fails to hit for months at a time.

Exactly.  I wish someone smarter than myself could explain why we’re more concerned about our pitching than this mediocre offense that goes missing all the time.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, DrCub said:

Exactly.  I wish someone smarter than myself could explain why we’re more concerned about our pitching than this mediocre offense that goes missing all the time.  

 

1. Planned upgrades can make a big difference when replacing poor production.  Non-Amaya catchers combined for a 45 wRC+, forty-five!  Replacing them with a 85 wRC+(Jansen's career: 100, Kelly: 85, Higashioka: 81) is roughly equivalent to upgrading from 2024 Michael Busch to 2024 Freddie Freeman(to say nothing of Amaya improving on his own line).  Similarly, 2024 Morel to Paredes' career/2024 wRC+ is roughly equivalent to upgrading from 2024 Ian Happ to 2024 Bryce Harper.  To that end, the Cubs had largely closed any holes by midseason, they were 9th in wRC+ after the All-Star break.  They've lost essentially nothing from that lineup and had little in the way of extreme over-performance.

 

2. The 'missing offense' is largely a function of Wrigley being an extreme pitcher's park last year.  The Cubs were 24th in wRC+ at home and 6th on the road.  As far as consistency goes, last year the Cubs did not go 3 straight road games without reaching 4+ runs. At home that happened EIGHT times.  Thankfully there's little reason for this to continue, the renovations appear to have made Wrigley more pitcher friendly, but in the sense it went from a slight hitter's park to a neutral park, not one we'd expect to be at the bottom of park factors with regularity.  This is a big part of why pitching is the focus, because the pitching staff will be harmed by that reversion to norms like the offense will be helped.

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So why not just keep him and get one mid tier player they might want now? If they were getting two after trading him why not just one and keep him? Don’t understand why he holds anything up. 

Probably has alot to do with Caissie and if reports are accurate, shedding payroll.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaredwyllys/2024/11/25/chicago-cubs-cutting-payroll-is-moving-the-wrong-direction/

 

 

[ToolDRT]

 

Dodgers continue to be the best organization in baseball 

Edited November 27, 2024 by ToolDRT

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Probably has alot to do with Caissie and if reports are accurate, shedding payroll.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaredwyllys/2024/11/25/chicago-cubs-cutting-payroll-is-moving-the-wrong-direction/

 

 

Two points. First, if Ricketts wants the team to shed salary without them adding it back in, he needs to sell the team. He is an awful owner. This team makes a lot of money. If anything he should be adding payroll. Next, even if that is true Bellinger isn’t holding up other moves they can make. They can still get a mid tier starting pitcher, either via trade or FA. They can still look for a pen arm or a catcher. Even if they think Cassie or Shaw can come up and fill Bellknger’s spot there are moves that can be made. 

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

 

Dodgers continue to be the best organization in baseball 

Dodgers are playing with a crazy money advantage over every other team. Add that to them being the destination of choice for the top Japaneses players and their advantage over every other organization in baseball grows. Honestly, it is easy for them to be the best organization in baseball. They have all the advantages from the start. It’s like running a 100 yard dash against someone, except that get to start at the 50 yard line. Of course they are going to win. 

[BigbadB]

31 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Two points. First, if Ricketts wants the team to shed salary without them adding it back in, he needs to sell the team.  

Exactly. Imagine yourself being a billionaire and treating your play toy as the Oakland A's/Pittsburgh Pirates of big market teams. What's the point? I don't expect him to blow the luxury tax line out of the water or to go over at all. Just stay within the confines of that extra expense, just spend what's within reason to field a winning team. If at the trade deadline, you have a playoff caliber team, do what's necessary to get to the playoffs.

 

[CubinNY]

47 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Exactly. Imagine yourself being a billionaire and treating your play toy as the Oakland A's/Pittsburgh Pirates of big market teams. What's the point? I don't expect him to blow the luxury tax line out of the water or to go over at all. Just stay within the confines of that extra expense, just spend what's within reason to field a winning team. If at the trade deadline, you have a playoff caliber team, do what's necessary to get to the playoffs.

 

The point is to make dump trucks full of money that they can give .00005% to their hand-picked politician so they can get bigger dump trucks, which they're going to need. 

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Dodgers are playing with a crazy money advantage over every other team. Add that to them being the destination of choice for the top Japaneses players and their advantage over every other organization in baseball grows. Honestly, it is easy for them to be the best organization in baseball. They have all the advantages from the start. It’s like running a 100 yard dash against someone, except that get to start at the 50 yard line. Of course they are going to win. 

True.  In 5 years they might suck though when some of these guys get old, unless they just spend wads more.  In the meantime they're going to dominate.

The next CBA needs to clean some of this up.

 

[chibears55]

I dont disagree with you, hell they can add alot if they wanted to.

Im just saying that if all these reports are accurate,  Bellinger is likely to be traded and they aren't expected to bring in any top FA players because they are looking to be under the Threshold.

 

[JHBulls]

17 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It’s celebrated, wide and far, when even slightly successful. Horsefeathers books are written! An award winning movie even! Folks at home love a cheap winner - will redefine winning to include the cheapest even - more than they love a winner. Heck, even Cubs fans think literally everyone’s some degree of overpayz (the popular one I see is everyone’s at least a *slight* overpayz) whether its Bellinger or Taillon or Neris or Thaiss or Paredes (edit) or Ian Happ etc etc. After all these guys are just playing a game for a living, not a real job like sitting in an office in front of a screen working on how to kill poor people or whatever the avg American is hired for these days 

I feel like this post took a bit of a dark turn that I wasn’t expecting. 

Edited November 28, 2024 by JHBulls

[Tank]

Happy Thanksgiving everybody! Hopefully we will soon be thankful for a Roki Sasaki press conference. 

[Rcal10]

12 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I dont disagree with you, hell they can add alot if they wanted to.

Im just saying that if all these reports are accurate,  Bellinger is likely to be traded and they aren't expected to bring in any top FA players because they are looking to be under the Threshold.

 

True. But actually the reports sound like a bunch of nothing really. As 1908 pointed out, it sounded like the Cubs were not in on any of the high end FA, BUT if they traded Bellinger that could change. That said, I doubt they would be in on the top tier (Soto, Burnes, Fried, Snell) anyway. So really that isn’t even a story. It also does not signal they are dropping salary. It just explains why they were looking to move Bellinger. They may still move Bellinger (I personally don’t care either way- as long as they then spend the money they save by trading him).

Back to the dropping salary comment I think that could also mean they spend closer to $42M-$45M to stay clear of the LT so that they don’t go a little over again this year due to some accounting mistake. I don’t expect them to come $30M short of the LT line and pocket the money they could save by trading Bellinger. I also don’t think they will only add $20 to the budget if they keep Bellinger. But who knows🤷 Maybe that is their plan. If it is, the plan sucks and Ricketts needs to sell the team. At the very least they should always be right up against the LT line. And if they are having a good year at the deadline they need to add, regardless if it brings them over. 

[LBiittner]

If THE RICKETTs are unwilling to let the 32,000 acre Grizzly Ridge Bison Ranch go back to the Blackfeet Tribe from whence it came, I seriously have reservations they let go of the cash cow known as the wrigleyville experience 

Edited November 28, 2024 by LBiittner

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

True. But actually the reports sound like a bunch of nothing really. As 1908 pointed out, it sounded like the Cubs were not in on any of the high end FA, BUT if they traded Bellinger that could change. That said, I doubt they would be in on the top tier (Soto, Burnes, Fried, Snell) anyway. So really that isn’t even a story. It also does not signal they are dropping salary. It just explains why they were looking to move Bellinger. They may still move Bellinger (I personally don’t care either way- as long as they then spend the money they save by trading him).

Back to the dropping salary comment I think that could also mean they spend closer to $42M-$45M to stay clear of the LT so that they don’t go a little over again this year due to some accounting mistake. I don’t expect them to come $30M short of the LT line and pocket the money they could save by trading Bellinger. I also don’t think they will only add $20 to the budget if they keep Bellinger. But who knows🤷 Maybe that is their plan. If it is, the plan sucks and Ricketts needs to sell the team. At the very least they should always be right up against the LT line. And if they are having a good year at the deadline they need to add, regardless if it brings them over. 

I wasn't suggesting they won't spend, just not spending on guys that are above mid range and yes go over the Threshold.

Im just not expecting much of an offseason  from them as far as any significant upgrades, i do see them adding better options to the pitching and bench players.

I feel as the season goes on we may just see more of the ready prospects coming up  added to the roster then we will see any new players they'll add from outside transactions this offseason. 

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

If THE RICKETTs are unwilling to let the 32,000 acre Grizzly Ridge Bison Ranch go back to the Blackfeet Tribe from whence it came, I seriously have reservations they let go of the cash cow known as the wrigleyville experience 

Oh, I am fully aware they won’t let go of the team. It just sucks if they actually cut payroll and cry broke again. But let’s not put the carriage before the horse. Maybe cutting payroll just means a little less than the LT line. Like $6M ish less. So basically same philosophy as always. I have come to terms with that philosophy, and that isn’t going to change. But dropping down well below the line would be a whole new level of suckage. . 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I wasn't suggesting they won't spend, just not spending on guys that are above mid range and yes go over the Threshold.

Im just not expecting much of an offseason  from them as far as any significant upgrades, i do see them adding better options to the pitching and bench players.

I feel as the season goes on we may just see more of the ready prospects coming up  added to the roster then we will see any new players they'll add from outside transactions this offseason. 

You are kind of saying what I am saying, I think. Is adding someone like Eovaldi to the rotation a significant upgrade over Hendricks? I would say yes. Is adding a FA catcher like Kelly, Jansen or Yankees catcher an upgrade of the catcher position? Again, I would say yes. Does adding another pen arm upgrade the pen? That arm and Morgan added, I would say yes. Does maybe adding Grichek to the bench to replace Wisdom provide an upgrade? Again, yes. Maybe not one move is significant by itself, but 4 decent moves does make for a significant upgrade to the roster. And that doesnt Include a possible trade for another starting pitcher. Do you think all of this is possible? Not the exact moves. But similar moves? I do. And I would call that significant. They may not do it. But I am asking you, if they did, would that be significant?

[imb]

8 hours ago, JHBulls said:

I feel like this post took a bit of a dark turn that I wasn’t expecting. 

sorry but he got banned from social and he's your guys' problem now. have fun