Week 8 - Bears (4-2) @ Commanders (5-2), 3:25 p.m. Sunday 10/27

[gflore34]

30 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Brisker still being out suuuuucks and bodes really poorly for him. Please don't be a repeat of Mike Brown's career. 

I'm confident Gordon will return, Brisker not so much, complications due to concussions have ended careers.

[UMFan83]

Interesting, Velus is finally gone

 

 

[BigSlick]

33 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Interesting, Velus is finally gone

 

 

I feel bad for Khari, but my god - I'm gonna throw a party for the Velus Jones release news. There are very few players have done such damage to a team's fortunes with so little playing time. I was terrified he'd be activated and muff another kick. 

I think Poles has been excellent for the most part over the last 3 years but his inability to cut ties with Velus shows a level of favoritism I find just a teensy bit upsetting. There was no reason for him to make the team this year, and he should have been cut at some point last year. 

Edited October 25, 2024 by BigSlick

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Interesting, Velus is finally gone

 

 

Which means they wanted 2 active roster spots.

Borom, Martin and Homer all practiced the last two days and are eligible to return from IR.

PIckens also practiced in full the last two days, but he wasn't IR, so he won't need a spot cleared to become active.
 

Edited October 25, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[bukie]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Interesting, Velus is finally gone

 

 

Bears really dropped the ball on that draft pick.

[WrigleyField 22]

I only am annoyed because of Poles Hard Knocks comment lol

 

If I never knew there was actual interest in him and that Poles anchor value for him was a 4th the Velus experiment ending would practically be non-news.  Knowing Poles valued him that high 8 weeks ago was hilarious, but I wanted to be proven wrong on that.

[WrigleyField 22]

44 minutes ago, bukie said:

Bears really dropped the ball on that draft pick.

Oh I get it now lol

[BigbadB]

There is no guarantee that Velus won't find his way to the practice squad, so don't celebrate too loudly. 

I remember in that draft that the need for a legit WR was so loud, and George Pickens was still available with that second of two 2nd round picks (Brisker). The drop off in decent receivers even then was significant, and looking back now, yikes, what a really bad year for WR's in general. 

Drake London, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were the darlings of the draft. 

As a refresher, Darnell Mooney led all WR's in receptions with 40. Kmet did lead the team in receptions and yards. Of the receivers on the entire 2022 Bears roster, only Darnell Mooney and Velus Jones have caught a pass in the NFL in 2024. 

[Soul]

At one point this offseason I could’ve sworn I heard Velus was gone.  But he wasn’t.  Maybe it was just me thinking that the logical thing happened.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I find the Jone hate to be a bit over the top. Every fan base needs a scapegoat.  He's fine for what he is as a fringe roster guy and it doesn't hurt anything to have him around or to cut him.

[BigSlick]

10 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I find the Jone hate to be a bit over the top. Every fan base needs a scapegoat.  He's fine for what he is as a fringe roster guy and it doesn't hurt anything to have him around or to cut him.

I have a very powerful emotional reaction to muffing kicks, and I make no apology for it 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I have a very powerful emotional reaction to muffing kicks, and I make no apology for it 

They should definitely have stopped having him return kicks before they did.

[gflore34]

27 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I find the Jone hate to be a bit over the top. Every fan base needs a scapegoat.  He's fine for what he is as a fringe roster guy and it doesn't hurt anything to have him around or to cut him.

I thought with more competence at QB he might look serviceable, wasn't given much of a chance and probably rightly so.  Just too mistake prone to take a chance on him.

[We Got The Whole 9]

4 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

They should definitely have stopped having him return kicks before they did.

Yeah I was hoping they'd keep working the Deebo role with him but he absolutely should have been taken off returning well before they cut him.

[David]

11 hours ago, gflore34 said:

I thought with more competence at QB he might look serviceable, wasn't given much of a chance and probably rightly so.  Just too mistake prone to take a chance on him.

Doesn't matter who throws to him.  He has horrific catching technique.  It pretty much looks like he's trying to drop it while making it look like he's trying to catch it.

[Brian707]

 

[raw]

With it looking like Daniels will be at QB today, the Bears job just got a bit tougher. Obviously, still a winnable game, but on the road against a good offense team with the betting line trending toward even, this game is as much of a toss up as the Bears have had in a long time.

On offense, the formula is the same as it was against Jacksonville. Throw the ball quickly. Get it to your playmakers. I'll guess the gameplan will be much different that last year when the Commanders were just like, "OK, we're going to line up in man and dare you to beat us". And Justin Fields and DJ Moore continuously did as they stubbornly tried to stop DJ on an island. They do have a new HC/defense with Dan Quinn. Quinn will likely try to bring the blitz. And if they don't get home, I have the confidence that Caleb can pick them apart through the air or with the scramble. 

Washington does not cover well. Mike Sainristil, a rookie, has been their best cover guy, but the Bears have 3 guys that are pretty tough to cover. I don't think Sainristil can handle the veteran nuance that DJ and Keenan bring, and I don't think he can handle Rome's size. Odunze has shown he can get open, even though that connection with Caleb hasn't quite been there since the Colts game in Week 3 while trying to focus on getting the veterans more involved. 

Washington also hasn't been anything special in the run game either. They are 27th in yards per attempt allowed. So the Bears also have the ability to sustain drives by mixing up the run and quick passing game.

Conversely, the Commanders have been really good both on the ground and in the air. Brian Robinson isn't a Jonathan Taylor level runningback, and their OL isn't Colts level, but the combination of the 2 plus the QB run has been top 3-5 in the league. And that will likely give the Bears trouble. Even if Daniels isn't 100%, you have to account for him, which means one fewer player in the box on zone reads and 1 less man in coverage if you have to use a spy on him. 

In the pass game, it's a lot of Scary Terry. I do like the Bears secondary to hold him in check. They have faced each other the last 2 years and the Bears have held him to a combined 7 catches for 90 yards, with 46 of those yards coming last year after they got down 16+. Daniels does spread the ball around a decent bit though as there's just enough Ekeler out of the backfield, Ertz at TE, Noah Brown on 3rd down, and Dyami Brown down the field to keep teams honest. Ertz against a backup safety and Noah Brown vs a backup nickel will be key matchups that the Commanders may try to exploit. 

If Daniels is behind center, the Bears need to hit him, and hit him a lot. He has shown in college that he isn't good at protecting himself. Their tackles are weak, so there will be chances to get after him off the edge. I expect them to move the pocket a bunch, but that can also lead to extra hits.

Again, the oddsmakers think this is a pretty even game. Considering the game is in Washington, that's a slight nod to the Bears here. The Bears are coming off a bye week, but the Commanders are coming off playing the Panthers so not much difference there. The Caleb Williams homecoming and Montez Sweat revenge factors are big potential momentum shifters. This figures to be a 1-score game and the Bears have played more close games than the Commanders, though it's been a while. The Bears haven't really gone out and won a close game with their offense taking a late lead. The Commanders have. This is easily the best defense Washington has faced, but also the best offense the Bears have seen. If the Bears can continue their streak of holding teams below 21 points, they should score enough to win this game.

[David]

10 hours ago, David said:

Doesn't matter who throws to him.  He has horrific catching technique.  It pretty much looks like he's trying to drop it while making it look like he's trying to catch it.

Not even joking.  This is a catch and he looks terrible. 

 

 

[cl smooth]

i get to watch the game on paramount+ this afternoon and not have to wad through porn popups via methstreams. good times!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

With Daniels in, I think the Bears' odds of winning dip below 50/50.

The Washington offense has been incredibly efficient and reliable. They don't turn the ball over, they don't let you get off the field for free with bad throws.   That's exactly the kind of offense that can negate our defense.

The Bears offense is capable of doing the same thing, but they've had enough miscues that I don't fully trust them. To win this game, we need something like the jags game. There can't be rookie turnovers, there can't be a bunch of missed bombs, there can't be confusion over what routes are being run.
 

[raw]

32 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

With Daniels in, I think the Bears' odds of winning dip below 50/50.

The Washington offense has been incredibly efficient and reliable. They don't turn the ball over, they don't let you get off the field for free with bad throws.   That's exactly the kind of offense that can negate our defense.
 

Same thing was said about the Houston offense, and the Bears held them under 20. Granted, they had Brisker and Gordon then. But if the Bears can keep Washington under 20 they win. And Daniels hasn't practiced. I don't think 7 games is enough of a sample size where he can take a week off and be right back without missing a beat. Which may just mean early struggles, but again, that could be enough if that keeps them under 20.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If Daniels plays, holding this offense under 20 would be the greatest accomplishment of the eberflus era 

[Soul]

27-23 Washington.

[David]

37 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

If Daniels plays, holding this offense under 20 would be the greatest accomplishment of the eberflus era 

This is very quick and dirty, but FWIW

Commanders Opponents (that Daniels has actually played against), Defensive DVOA Rank, and Points Scored

Tampa - 14th - 20 points

NYG - 16th - 21 points

Cincinnati - 20th - 33 points

Arizona - 26th - 42 points

Cleveland - 17th - 34 points

Baltimore - 13th - 23 points

 

Bears are 7th in DVOA

[BigSlick]

This is the kind of game I *expect* to Bears to lose. It’s a game where they will most likely have to score quite a bit to keep up, something the Bears as a franchise has never been able to do. Yeah yeah, the defense is pretty good, but we have to view good or even great defenses as *mitigating* offenses, not shutting people down. If the goal for the Bears winning is to hope to hold the Redskins under 20 points - we’ve already lost. It’s certainly possible, but it’s not something to count on. 
 

We’re, hopefully, entering an era where our QB can continuously go toe to toe with the opponents offense. I have a sinking feeling about the game but I’m also hopeful to see something I haven’t really seen before : answering scores for scores, driving late for a chance to win, etc.

We’re gonna learn a lot in any case!