Week 8 - Bears (4-2) @ Commanders (5-2), 3:25 p.m. Sunday 10/27

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Jayden Daniels did not practice today.  Commanders coach says "next update Friday" which I assume means he's not practicing Thursday either 

 

It's tea-leaf reading but I think it's less than 50/50 he plays 

The part of me that wants the Bears to see the playoffs is cheering for him to sit out a week. The non rational part of me wants him to start so Caleb can absolutely stick it to the Commanders and shut down this nonsense that the Bears made a mistake at #1.

[minnesotacubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The part of me that wants the Bears to see the playoffs is cheering for him to sit out a week. The non rational part of me wants him to start so Caleb can absolutely stick it to the Commanders and shut down this nonsense that the Bears made a mistake at #1.

if Daniels starts battling injuries and Caleb stays healthy, that might be all the arguement we need

 

 

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Tory Taylor update. Spoilered for any delicate eyes that don't want to see it

 

  Hide contents

t13th in average
t16h in net average
t15th inside20/t13th most touchbacks 
18th in average hang time
t24th in returned percentage 

There's no such thing as a special punter

 

Meh, Trenton Gill was cut after 3 disastrous games with the Bucs this year.  He might not be special and there might have been better usage of that 4th round pick but at least he's an upgrade.  Not saying that makes it ok to use one of our 4 (later 5) draft picks in the draft on a punter but it could probably be worse?

[UMFan83]

I just realized that the next 2 games are on the road.  This coming after a game in London (considered a home game) and a bye.  So the Bears will have gone from October 6th to November 10th without playing a game at Soldier Field.  We are at the exact midpoint of that 34 day stretch today.

The high on October 6th was 76 degrees.  The average high on November 10th is 43.  So basically it will have gone from summer to almost winter between true home games.

Edited October 23, 2024 by UMFan83

[NorthsideAvenger]

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Tory Taylor update. Spoilered for any delicate eyes that don't want to see it

 

  Reveal hidden contents

t13th in average
t16h in net average
t15th inside20/t13th most touchbacks 
18th in average hang time
t24th in returned percentage 

There's no such thing as a special punter

 

Do not need him to be special for him to contribute to the Bears.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Stevenson practiced, Brisker and Gordon did not.

Pickens also made his return to practice, but I assume he'll need some buildup before returning to games 

[Bertz]

There's been a lot going around about the Bears' tough schedule going forward.  But it looks like we are getting the Commanders without Daniels, the 49ers after their skill player group has gone through 'Homer at Bat' levels of attrition, and the Vikings after Sam Darnold's pixie dust wore off.

It'll still be tough of course but is looking less gauntlet-y than it did a week or two ago.

[BigSlick]

Absolutely feel no need to see Jayden Daniels this weekend. I'll take every advantage we can get and if its the Mariota Commanders, all the better. Bears'll have plenty of chance to prove how real they are throughout the rest of the season. Given how tough the division is, stacking wins ain't bad at all. 

Little nervous about the Brisker news. Given he's had 3 full weeks off football activity, I was pretty optimistic he'd be back in action. Concerned that this could be something more serious. 

[WrigleyField 22]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

There's been a lot going around about the Bears' tough schedule going forward.  But it looks like we are getting the Commanders without Daniels, the 49ers after their skill player group has gone through 'Homer at Bat' levels of attrition, and the Vikings after Sam Darnold's pixie dust wore off.

It'll still be tough of course but is looking less gauntlet-y than it did a week or two ago.

The tough schedule is a whole heck a lot of the division being tough.  Which it is.  But also the way people measure SOS (winning%) will come down as the division plays games against each other.

 

So it's hard but they also have a 2x chance against most of what's making the schedule hard and will have an outsized impact in playoff odds.

 

Sooo, meh?

[minnesotacubsfan]

49 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

The tough schedule is a whole heck a lot of the division being tough.  Which it is.  But also the way people measure SOS (winning%) will come down as the division plays games against each other.

 

So it's hard but they also have a 2x chance against most of what's making the schedule hard and will have an outsized impact in playoff odds.

 

Sooo, meh?

its simple: let caleb throw a bunch of TDs and then let our D hurt the other guys QB

its win-win, we all get to see caleb grow and become a god and I get to watch the other qb's get destroyed

 

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by minnesotacubsfan

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Tory Taylor update. Spoilered for any delicate eyes that don't want to see it

 

  Reveal hidden contents

t13th in average
t16h in net average
t15th inside20/t13th most touchbacks 
18th in average hang time
t24th in returned percentage 

There's no such thing as a special punter

 

Are punting stats all that great at telling who are the best punters?  

Average distance: Punters don't always try to kick their hardest.  They might be trying to pin a punt inside the 20, they might not want to outkick their coverage, etc.  

Number of Touchbacks or number of punts downed inside the 20: One punter may have more/less opportunities than others.  Looking right now, the total number of punts between punters in the league varies quite a bit, with some more than twice as many than others (not even counting the ones that have only played 2 or 3 games).  

Inside 20%: I'm pretty sure all punts are lumped into this, so you could be kicking from your endzone with zero chance of having it land inside the 20 but it will hurt your % in this department.  I might be wrong on this, but it seems like Taylor hasn't had a ton of chances to punt from close to mid-field.  Seems like he is usually punting from farther back in Bears territory.  He does have a 10:2 ratio of punts inside the 20 versus touchbacks though.  

Net punt yards/attempt: Besides the same issues that average distance has, this also depends on how good your punt coverage team is. Yes, it also depends on if the punter out-kicks his coverage, but maybe you learn more about what your coverage team can do as you play more games with them.

He also is punting in Chicago where the wind and cold weather can have an effect.  We saw that he punted well at Iowa in winter conditions.  I know at least one of the games the wind was pretty strong this year.  

We have already seen Taylor have a game where he had a pretty decent effect on the Bears winning.  Switch him out for Gill and I don't think they win the Rams game.  I'm not saying he is the best in the league after 6 games, but I don't know if the stats really show much one way or the other.  I also wouldn't expect him to be the best in the league after 6 games, or that he needs to be in order to use a 4th rounder on him--in a year that was widely considered to have very little depth after the 1st/2nd round.  I just expect him to be really good.  I looked back at the bears draft history and over the last 20 years or so, there have been very few fourth rounders who did much at all (Eddie Jackson was probably the best one, and even he had only a couple of good years and a lot of mediocre to bad). Roschon was a 4th from a year ago and he is the epitome of replaceable, but no one cares about taking those types of players in the 4th.  Most of the players were nobodies.  Drafting a punter that will most likely be a good one for 10 years or more doesn't seem like that big of a deal.  Also, we are still at a relatively small sample size.  I know when you made a post about this a few weeks ago, I looked up the punting stats.  The player leading the league in average had a "longest punt" of 84 yards.  At that point in the season, one punt that takes a fortuitous bounce and rolls 30 yards will raise your average by 1-2 yards or so.  

Taylor was described as a punter that has multiple clubs in his bag.  He can hit it far, but he can also punt it where he wants pretty well if he is trying to pin it.  He is good at having it not bounce into the endzone.  Are there other punters that can do that well?  Probably.  Do all of them?  Probably not, as the Bears saw for the past few years.  I can only remember 1 punt this year where it was a shank type disappointment.  Gill had 1 or 2 a game it seemed.  

[WrigleyField 22]

Sorry Kyle, actually Die Hard Chicago Bears on the Facebook.com says otherwise 

 

[jumbo]

10 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

The tough schedule is a whole heck a lot of the division being tough.  Which it is.  But also the way people measure SOS (winning%) will come down as the division plays games against each other.

 

So it's hard but they also have a 2x chance against most of what's making the schedule hard and will have an outsized impact in playoff odds.

 

Sooo, meh?

The division games are going to be tough. I'm concerned mainly about the OL performance allowing for a good enough running game and pressure pick up. 

Watching Green Bay hold Stroud to 86 passing yards gives me some unease. The Vikings D can easily confuse our OL if not Caleb. Detroit is just a beast of a team right now. Winning 2 out of 6 would feel like an accomplishment to me. I just don't trust that any improvement we've seen in the OL will translate when facing a legitimate DL/pressure front. 

 

[Derwood]

10 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Sorry Kyle, actually Die Hard Chicago Bears on the Facebook.com says otherwise 

 

That group is so miserable. It's week 8 and Fields has been benched but they still make daily posts about how Fields was wronged by the Bears. Build a bridge...

[WrigleyField 22]

Yea I mean it's a Facebook fan page.  Have some self decency and put all your bad takes on Twitter next to the uh free speech nazis or whatever

[CubinNY]

I'd love to see them step up, but I think they are pretty easily the worst team in the division. Minnesota's defense is among the best in the league, Goff has more touchdowns than incomplete passes in the last few games, and the Packers, well horsefeathers the Packers, but they are still the Packers. A lot can happen from now until the end of the season, but the Bears will have to prove it. I don't trust the OL. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

15 hours ago, PosterToBeNamedLater said:

Spoiler

Are punting stats all that great at telling who are the best punters?  

Average distance: Punters don't always try to kick their hardest.  They might be trying to pin a punt inside the 20, they might not want to outkick their coverage, etc.  

Number of Touchbacks or number of punts downed inside the 20: One punter may have more/less opportunities than others.  Looking right now, the total number of punts between punters in the league varies quite a bit, with some more than twice as many than others (not even counting the ones that have only played 2 or 3 games).  

Inside 20%: I'm pretty sure all punts are lumped into this, so you could be kicking from your endzone with zero chance of having it land inside the 20 but it will hurt your % in this department.  I might be wrong on this, but it seems like Taylor hasn't had a ton of chances to punt from close to mid-field.  Seems like he is usually punting from farther back in Bears territory.  He does have a 10:2 ratio of punts inside the 20 versus touchbacks though.  

Net punt yards/attempt: Besides the same issues that average distance has, this also depends on how good your punt coverage team is. Yes, it also depends on if the punter out-kicks his coverage, but maybe you learn more about what your coverage team can do as you play more games with them.

He also is punting in Chicago where the wind and cold weather can have an effect.  We saw that he punted well at Iowa in winter conditions.  I know at least one of the games the wind was pretty strong this year.  

We have already seen Taylor have a game where he had a pretty decent effect on the Bears winning.  Switch him out for Gill and I don't think they win the Rams game.  I'm not saying he is the best in the league after 6 games, but I don't know if the stats really show much one way or the other.  I also wouldn't expect him to be the best in the league after 6 games, or that he needs to be in order to use a 4th rounder on him--in a year that was widely considered to have very little depth after the 1st/2nd round.  I just expect him to be really good.  I looked back at the bears draft history and over the last 20 years or so, there have been very few fourth rounders who did much at all (Eddie Jackson was probably the best one, and even he had only a couple of good years and a lot of mediocre to bad). Roschon was a 4th from a year ago and he is the epitome of replaceable, but no one cares about taking those types of players in the 4th.  Most of the players were nobodies.  Drafting a punter that will most likely be a good one for 10 years or more doesn't seem like that big of a deal.  Also, we are still at a relatively small sample size.  I know when you made a post about this a few weeks ago, I looked up the punting stats.  The player leading the league in average had a "longest punt" of 84 yards.  At that point in the season, one punt that takes a fortuitous bounce and rolls 30 yards will raise your average by 1-2 yards or so.  

Taylor was described as a punter that has multiple clubs in his bag.  He can hit it far, but he can also punt it where he wants pretty well if he is trying to pin it.  He is good at having it not bounce into the endzone.  Are there other punters that can do that well?  Probably.  Do all of them?  Probably not, as the Bears saw for the past few years.  I can only remember 1 punt this year where it was a shank type disappointment.  Gill had 1 or 2 a game it seemed.  

 

Spoiler

Are punting stats perfect and non-contextual? No, all football stats are contextual. 

But you're actually getting into exactly *why* there's no such thing as a special punter.  All that context you are talking about severely dilutes the punter's ability to impact.games. Beyond the already limited impact that comes from being a punter.  There's no point in kicking it into the end zone, there's no point in outkicking your coverage (though Taylor does do that a lot).    That's why everyone ends up around 43 net and no one is special.

The wind has been a factor, in the sense that his two spectacular punts against the Rams that everyone wants to focus on were both wind-aided. Still count, though.  But so did the shank against the Texans.

Put away the pre-draft hype and actually watch Taylor's punts? They're really nothing special.  His directional kicking has been inconsistent at best, he's shown no special ability to spin the ball a certain way, and he tends to kick low line drives that outkick his coverage with poor hang time.  He's not particularly good at finding the sideline.  Can he occasionally boom one?  Sure, so can 25 other guys in the NFL. Legs are getting stronger, same reason everyone has placekickers who can go 50+ routinely now.

We needed a punter, he's a punter, a 4th rounder isn't *that* much, sure.  But he's not a special punter no matter how much Iowa fans loved him.  Because there's no such thing as a special punter.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

15 hours ago, PosterToBeNamedLater said:

Are punting stats all that great at telling who are the best punters?  

Average distance: Punters don't always try to kick their hardest.  They might be trying to pin a punt inside the 20, they might not want to outkick their coverage, etc.  

Number of Touchbacks or number of punts downed inside the 20: One punter may have more/less opportunities than others.  Looking right now, the total number of punts between punters in the league varies quite a bit, with some more than twice as many than others (not even counting the ones that have only played 2 or 3 games).  

Inside 20%: I'm pretty sure all punts are lumped into this, so you could be kicking from your endzone with zero chance of having it land inside the 20 but it will hurt your % in this department.  I might be wrong on this, but it seems like Taylor hasn't had a ton of chances to punt from close to mid-field.  Seems like he is usually punting from farther back in Bears territory.  He does have a 10:2 ratio of punts inside the 20 versus touchbacks though.  

Net punt yards/attempt: Besides the same issues that average distance has, this also depends on how good your punt coverage team is. Yes, it also depends on if the punter out-kicks his coverage, but maybe you learn more about what your coverage team can do as you play more games with them.

He also is punting in Chicago where the wind and cold weather can have an effect.  We saw that he punted well at Iowa in winter conditions.  I know at least one of the games the wind was pretty strong this year.  

We have already seen Taylor have a game where he had a pretty decent effect on the Bears winning.  Switch him out for Gill and I don't think they win the Rams game.  I'm not saying he is the best in the league after 6 games, but I don't know if the stats really show much one way or the other.  I also wouldn't expect him to be the best in the league after 6 games, or that he needs to be in order to use a 4th rounder on him--in a year that was widely considered to have very little depth after the 1st/2nd round.  I just expect him to be really good.  I looked back at the bears draft history and over the last 20 years or so, there have been very few fourth rounders who did much at all (Eddie Jackson was probably the best one, and even he had only a couple of good years and a lot of mediocre to bad). Roschon was a 4th from a year ago and he is the epitome of replaceable, but no one cares about taking those types of players in the 4th.  Most of the players were nobodies.  Drafting a punter that will most likely be a good one for 10 years or more doesn't seem like that big of a deal.  Also, we are still at a relatively small sample size.  I know when you made a post about this a few weeks ago, I looked up the punting stats.  The player leading the league in average had a "longest punt" of 84 yards.  At that point in the season, one punt that takes a fortuitous bounce and rolls 30 yards will raise your average by 1-2 yards or so.  

Taylor was described as a punter that has multiple clubs in his bag.  He can hit it far, but he can also punt it where he wants pretty well if he is trying to pin it.  He is good at having it not bounce into the endzone.  Are there other punters that can do that well?  Probably.  Do all of them?  Probably not, as the Bears saw for the past few years.  I can only remember 1 punt this year where it was a shank type disappointment.  Gill had 1 or 2 a game it seemed.  

 

Spoiler

Are punting stats perfect and non-contextual? No, all football stats are contextual. 

But you're actually getting into exactly *why* there's no such thing as a special punter.  All that context you are talking about severely dilutes the punter's ability to impact.games. Beyond the already limited impact that comes from being a punter.  There's no point in kicking it into the end zone, there's no point in outkicking your coverage (though Taylor does do that a lot).    That's why everyone ends up around 43 net and no one is special.

The wind has been a factor, in the sense that his two spectacular punts against the Rams that everyone wants to focus on were both wind-aided. Still count, though.  But so did the shank against the Texans.

Put away the pre-draft hype and actually watch Taylor's punts? They're really nothing special.  His directional kicking has been inconsistent at best, he's shown no special ability to spin the ball a certain way, and he tends to kick low line drives that outkick his coverage with poor hang time.  He's not particularly good at finding the sideline.  Can he occasionally boom one?  Sure, so can 25 other guys in the NFL. Legs are getting stronger, same reason everyone has placekickers who can go 50+ routinely now.

We needed a punter, he's a punter, a 4th rounder isn't *that* much, sure.  But he's not a special punter no matter how much Iowa fans loved him.  Because there's no such thing as a special punter.

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[BigSlick]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I'd love to see them step up, but I think they are pretty easily the worst team in the division. Minnesota's defense is among the best in the league, Goff has more touchdowns than incomplete passes in the last few games, and the Packers, well horsefeathers the Packers, but they are still the Packers. A lot can happen from now until the end of the season, but the Bears will have to prove it. I don't trust the OL. 

Maybe its wishcasting, but I don't "believe" in the Vikings. The whole Sam Darnold Thing I can't see working indefinitely and we're seeing cracks in it. And I also think we tend to play Goff and the Lions well. They gotta play the games, and I think there's a good chance there's some regression in play from the other NFC North teams. (There's also a good chance of regression by the Bears). I don't see any of them as worldbeaters, but they're all very strong teams with, generally, good coaching. 

I think it's more likely than not we end up 4th place in the division, and that would be unfortunate, but if we keep up the quality of play and end up with a winning record and out of the playoffs, so it goes. It would also be deceptively awesome to have a 4th place schedule for 2025 when we can really slap some people around. 

The Packers...well....if we don't get swept by them for a 6th year in a row I'll consider it a minor miracle. They have the St. Louis Cardinals magic pixie dust and will befuddle us until the end of time, for sins that the Chicago Bears have committed in some previous generation, I have no other explanation for it. The best I can say is Jordan Love turns the ball over a lot, so there's something there. Here's hoping that as Caleb Williams smashes the glass ceiling of Bears QBs, he also smashes, irrevocably, the last 4 decades of Packers ownage of us 

Edited October 24, 2024 by BigSlick

[BigSlick]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

 

  Hide contents

Are punting stats perfect and non-contextual? No, all football stats are contextual. 

But you're actually getting into exactly *why* there's no such thing as a special punter.  All that context you are talking about severely dilutes the punter's ability to impact.games. Beyond the already limited impact that comes from being a punter.  There's no point in kicking it into the end zone, there's no point in outkicking your coverage (though Taylor does do that a lot).    That's why everyone ends up around 43 net and no one is special.

The wind has been a factor, in the sense that his two spectacular punts against the Rams that everyone wants to focus on were both wind-aided. Still count, though.  But so did the shank against the Texans.

Put away the pre-draft hype and actually watch Taylor's punts? They're really nothing special.  His directional kicking has been inconsistent at best, he's shown no special ability to spin the ball a certain way, and he tends to kick low line drives that outkick his coverage with poor hang time.  He's not particularly good at finding the sideline.  Can he occasionally boom one?  Sure, so can 25 other guys in the NFL. Legs are getting stronger, same reason everyone has placekickers who can go 50+ routinely now.

We needed a punter, he's a punter, a 4th rounder isn't *that* much, sure.  But he's not a special punter no matter how much Iowa fans loved him.  Because there's no such thing as a special punter.

 

I would argue that if you could produce a punter who could coffin corner on every single punt and get the ball inside the 10 or 5 every single time he punted he would be special. That would do enough to make him valuable enough for a 4th round pick. But that's not realistic or possible. 

Given what NFL kickers have been able to do in the last 5 or so years, where they make a 50 yarder look routine and anything short of 60+ yards a decent gamble....well who knows. There may be some revolutionizing possible in punting.

But also punting has never mattered less in the NFL. Even if this year is a slight down year in offense, the overall trajectory is towards more points, points, points (no matter how much I dislike it), and more 4th down attempts. Field position has never mattered less. So who's to say. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

20 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

  Hide contents

Are punting stats perfect and non-contextual? No, all football stats are contextual. 

But you're actually getting into exactly *why* there's no such thing as a special punter.  All that context you are talking about severely dilutes the punter's ability to impact.games. Beyond the already limited impact that comes from being a punter.  There's no point in kicking it into the end zone, there's no point in outkicking your coverage (though Taylor does do that a lot).    That's why everyone ends up around 43 net and no one is special.

The wind has been a factor, in the sense that his two spectacular punts against the Rams that everyone wants to focus on were both wind-aided. Still count, though.  But so did the shank against the Texans.

Put away the pre-draft hype and actually watch Taylor's punts? They're really nothing special.  His directional kicking has been inconsistent at best, he's shown no special ability to spin the ball a certain way, and he tends to kick low line drives that outkick his coverage with poor hang time.  He's not particularly good at finding the sideline.  Can he occasionally boom one?  Sure, so can 25 other guys in the NFL. Legs are getting stronger, same reason everyone has placekickers who can go 50+ routinely now.

We needed a punter, he's a punter, a 4th rounder isn't *that* much, sure.  But he's not a special punter no matter how much Iowa fans loved him.  Because there's no such thing as a special punter.

 

Maynard was underrated. I think he had to be among the lead in his Bears career for fewest return yards and TDs. He was the master at the 42 yard unreturnable punt.

[UMFan83]

For the record, here is Puntalytics updated metrics for punters:

[gflore34]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I'd love to see them step up, but I think they are pretty easily the worst team in the division. Minnesota's defense is among the best in the league, Goff has more touchdowns than incomplete passes in the last few games, and the Packers, well horsefeathers the Packers, but they are still the Packers. A lot can happen from now until the end of the season, but the Bears will have to prove it. I don't trust the OL. 

The Vikings are weakest in the division at the most import position - QB, I don't see how the Bears are easily the worst team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Daniels is going to "try" to practice Friday.

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Daniels is going to "try" to practice Friday.

To me it's immaterial who's at QB for the Commanders, the Bears have a better chance of getting enough stops on defense to win.