Week 8 - Bears (4-2) @ Commanders (5-2), 3:25 p.m. Sunday 10/27

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

To me it's immaterial who's at QB for the Commanders, the Bears have a better chance of getting enough stops on defense to win.

I like the Bears, but I think having Mariota instead of Daniels gives them a lot more margin for error.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Brisker and Gordon still out of practice today, which definitely is worrisome.

[BigSlick]

I don't love potentially being down 2 of our best DBs again against one of the better offenses in the league. Even if they have to go with Mariota, I think they have tremendous ability to move the ball pretty well. 

I foresee a shoot out, honestly. 

[raw]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

To me it's immaterial who's at QB for the Commanders, the Bears have a better chance of getting enough stops on defense to win.

I like the Bears chances either way. But I think the difference between Daniels and Mariota is like 24-20 or 31-13. The Bears D should make Mariota's life miserable and he doesn't have the deep ball or athleticism (still very athletic, but not to Daniels' level) to really threaten the Bears defense at all levels.

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

I'm going to preface this by saying I don't actually care about this all that much, and I'm sorry for adding to the punting discussion when I don't think anyone cares.  So I will spoiler it below:

Spoiler

"But you're actually getting into exactly *why* there's no such thing as a special punter... That's why everyone ends up around 43 net and no one is special."

I don't think what I said shows that.  What I said was that the stats all end up bunched together, but that the stats don't show the context.  Just because everyone's net ends up in the same ballpark doesn't show that one guy had punts that might have really flipped the field in important situations, while his other punts where he couldn't kick it as hard as he can made his average come out similar to everyone else.  And to me, I would think the ability to pin the ball inside the 10 or 5 is more important than the distance anyway.  And statistics like your average yardage or net don't really show that.  

"The wind has been a factor, in the sense that his two spectacular punts against the Rams that everyone wants to focus on were both wind-aided. Still count, though.  But so did the shank against the Texans."

I honestly don't remember it being the rams game with the strong wind, but it may have been.  Even so, he had multiple punts traveling 60+ yards that game and they happened in both directions.  

" he's shown no special ability to spin the ball a certain way,"

I was just looking up his rams game highlights to see if he kicked big punts both ways and in those highlights, 4 punts hit the ground.  Every punt bounced in a way that was what you would want out of a punt as to not go into the end zone.  3 of the 4 were downed inside the 10 (one inside the 5) and the fourth traveled over 60 yards in the air and bounced mostly upward but barely carried into the endzone, just out of reach of the bears player.  These are the kind of things I was hoping he would be able to do when they drafted him.  Highlights in the spoiler below:

Spoiler

 

Anyway, my main point isn't that Taylor is so much more special than every other punter.  I just thought it was funny that so many people think you absolutely cannot draft a punter in the 4th round (the 21st pick in the 4th round in a bad draft, even).  Like, because most punters are probably undrafted free agents or 6th/7th rounders, picking one any higher just can't happen unless they are not just better than other options, but someone who is so much better we label him as special.  And even if that is true, that is what the Bears GM/scouts think.  He has a group of people whose job it is to decide if that player can make a difference over an undrafted punter and they thought he does (and apparently other teams were going to take him soon as well).  I was fine with them picking him there. 

The thing he seemed to be really good at in college was the thing I think makes the most difference in a punter (pinning teams inside the 20/10/5).  And I do think they can affect games.  Just like how one sack by a defender might derail a drive that otherwise would have scored a touchdown, one punt in a game that is pinned inside the 5 instead of rolling into the endzone for a touchback might derail the ensuing drive.  He also happens to be pretty good at distance as well (I had forgotten with the rams punts how they were both long and deadened where they landed--those were impressive).  And maybe there are like 30 guys who all do those things just as well, but we have had punters in the recent past who have not been good at those things.  Or maybe we see every punter do those things once in a while, but some might do them more consistently.  And hearing reporters like Adam Hoge in training camp say that it looks a lot different with him, that he would see punt after punt bounce out of bounds inside the 5, or Jaylon Johnson saying "I haven't been that pumped up for a punt in a long time. He's definitely special, man" makes it seem like maybe he might be different.

I know, take that with a grain of salt. Teammates like to talk up their teammates.  Maybe he is just better than Gill.  I'm not saying he is the best, but I am fine with using a 4th on a guy who was a definite upgrade, and may be one of the better punters for like 10+ years, especially when you look back at how many 4th rounders don't do much at all.  I don't think hearing he is around middle of the pack in average distance/net yards changes that.  

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by PosterToBeNamedLater

[SpongeWorthy]

the athletic floated our 2025 and 2026 FRP and Austin booker for Myles Garrett 

“Per Spotrac, his cap hit is reasonable ($800K in 2024, $19.5M in 2025 and $25.5M in 2026) and — though his nagging foot injuries are concerning — teams rarely get a chance to add the NFL’s best defender in his prime. And of course, Cleveland would need to be willing to part with the future Hall of Famer. Remember what they made Joe Thomas endure?

If this unfolds, the Bears would still hold the Panthers’ 2025 second-round pick, which could be as good as No. 33, and have $72 million in cap space next year, two reasons why this wouldn’t be a Khalil Mack-style gamble for Chicago. At 28, Garrett should remain one of the league’s best for another three to four years, which fits into the Bears’ Super Bowl window with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze on rookie contracts. Capitalize, Chicago!”

Edited October 24, 2024 by SpongeWorthy

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hard pass 

[raw]

Hardest of passes. Talking prime Dan Marino in a tight window hard.

[UMFan83]

Still waiting on that Sam Darnold regression 

[minnesotacubsfan]

(2) 1st rds? helllllls no

 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

My fear of the Vikings is dropping, as long as Williams doesn't get overwhelmed by the looks 

[UMFan83]

Now just need to beat Washington, have the Lions lose to Tennessee and the Packers lose to Jacksonville and we’ll be tied for 1st after this weekend. Super easy 😂

[Derwood]

Thank you, Rams

[bukie]

That was the first time anyone in the NFC North lost to a team under .500.

[BigSlick]

10 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Still waiting on that Sam Darnold regression 

You asked for regression and you got defensive regression at least. 
 

this looks like a completely different Rams team than the one we played a few weeks back. Wild how getting their receivers back turns them from hapless to insanely dangerous 

[BigbadB]

12 hours ago, SpongeWorthy said:

the athletic floated our 2025 and 2026 FRP and Austin booker for Myles Garrett 

“Per Spotrac, his cap hit is reasonable ($800K in 2024, $19.5M in 2025 and $25.5M in 2026) and — though his nagging foot injuries are concerning — teams rarely get a chance to add the NFL’s best defender in his prime. And of course, Cleveland would need to be willing to part with the future Hall of Famer. Remember what they made Joe Thomas endure?

If this unfolds, the Bears would still hold the Panthers’ 2025 second-round pick, which could be as good as No. 33, and have $72 million in cap space next year, two reasons why this wouldn’t be a Khalil Mack-style gamble for Chicago. At 28, Garrett should remain one of the league’s best for another three to four years, which fits into the Bears’ Super Bowl window with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze on rookie contracts. Capitalize, Chicago!”

If Dexter is as good as advertised, then you probably don't need a Myles Garrett type DE to improve dramatically. I'd rather get the kid from Jacksonville for a much lesser draft pick cost. I'd rather save those first round picks and continue building from within. We honestly don't know how well this Bears team stacks up against the better teams in the league, and we probably won't know before the trade deadline. So making a big splash trade wouldn't be something I would want to see them do. I also think this is all just speculation.

All these social media sites are creating trade scenarios to generate hits, and most of them are laughable. I can't tell you how many trade Robinson, Davis, Herbert and Borom trade scenarios I saw just yesterday. None of those guys are bringing any value in return, so it's just a bunch of noise/nonsense. And how many trades actually happen each year before the deadline? Half a dozen? A dozen? That's still less than 1 per team that still has a chance at the playoffs. A defense that hasn't allowed more than 21 points since last season some time isn't where they need the most help if they want to take the next step. That OLine has more holes than a pasta callender. I'm not about to start pretending that it all of a sudden got good because they whooped by  the Jaguars and Panthers. If you really want to improve and make a playoff run, that's probably where you focus your energy. But, I'm not sure the cost would be worth it. Might be better to let a season where you've played well and are still in last place play out and make more improvements in the offseason with every resource available. 

No rookie QB has ever gotten their team to a Super Bowl. If it happens this year, it should be based on the current roster plus maybe a minor upgrade here or there, but not by mortgaging the future.

[Rex Buckingham]

Fitting in a new OL mid-season seems very difficult. A run stuffing DT might be the best addition without giving up too much in terms of draft picks

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's not a bad market to pick up second-tier DE that would still be an upgrade and presumably cost a lot less. Although we might have already used our budget for that kind of stuff on Allen.  I really don't care for any of our DEs besides Sweat all that much (yes, I know booker has some long-term upside, but I mean for the near future).

Meanwhile, Daniels does not appear to be practicing today. That's gotta be it, they were just stalling on admitting he's out.  I'm not going to pretend to be sorry to miss him, but damn it would suck to lose to Mariota.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Commanders coach is saying Daniels did practice today despite reporters saying they didn't see him, so who knows

[Old Style]

I love Myles and adding him to the Bears would make me ecstatic but not at that price. 

[BigSlick]

Yeah I think it would be insane to make any big deal at this point for Crosby or Garrett, as much as it would be fun to fantasize about the defense with either of them.

i wouldn’t be shocked if they offloaded Nate Davis though. I just wouldn’t expect more than a 5th or something for him.

[UMFan83]

Gordon and Brisker both ruled out for Sunday.  Now you have to wondering if this is going to be a very long term thing with Brisker having sat out a month.  Hope everything is ok with him.

[BigSlick]

Brisker still being out suuuuucks and bodes really poorly for him. Please don't be a repeat of Mike Brown's career. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

27 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Gordon and Brisker both ruled out for Sunday.  Now you have to wondering if this is going to be a very long term thing with Brisker having sat out a month.  Hope everything is ok with him.

That reallllly sucks.  Gonna need the offense to win it for us, I dunno if the defense can bail us out if Daniels plays.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Could be worse.  Darrisaw confirmed season-ending knee injury for the Vikings. That's absolutely crushing for them.

Edited October 25, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot