Bears week 6 vs Jags in London, Sunday at 8:30am

[David]

5 hours ago, Tim said:

bah, humbug.

• Take two of the next three against Washington, AZ and NE.
• Go 3-3 in the division games
• Go 1-1 against the west coast teams

That's doable and ends up at 10-7. 

 

horsefeathers that.  take all 3 of the next 3.  lfg

[cwood218]

9 hours ago, raw said:

Logically should have been a popular Superbowl pick in the NFC. They probably should have made it last year and didn't lose anyone. 

Of course, now they've lost Hutchinson to a really ugly leg injury. I'd imagine they'll go hard after any pass rushers that hit the market in the next couple weeks.

I don't know if it will hurt them as much as it seems. I mean as long as Dan Campbell can motivate Jalen Carter and get a pass rush from the middle of the line ... wait ... what ... they traded out of # 6 and moved down to # 12 ... Well alright, in hindsight passing on Carter and moving down to #12 plus acquiring extra draft capital was probably a good idea.  So, as I was saying, Will Mcdonald IV is really off to a fast start this year. I mean he has 6 sacks and a forced fumble and if ... ah come on ... now what ... who? ... at pick 12? JESUS CHRIST .... Never mind ....        

[BigbadB]

10 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Williams pace update: 3732 yards, 26 TDs

Would be good for 3rd and 5th all time on bears single season lists 

 

This is without the benefit of late game garbage time. The Bears have either been leading or in close games with a chance to win.

Not related, but also being discussed here is the Vikings. They should be getting TJ Hockenson back next week. Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson is a legit receiver room.

[17 Seconds]

 

[Wilson A2000]

13 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Williams pace update: 3732 yards, 26 TDs

Would be good for 3rd and 5th all time on bears single season lists 

 

I think he’s going to have more than 26 TDs. This team has too many weapons. 

[NotKyle]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

This is without the benefit of late game garbage time. The Bears have either been leading or in close games with a chance to win.

Colts game.

 

But I would love to see more games like that where we fall behind enough to abandon the run and let him throw 50+ with tempo. Our defense is probably too good to let it happen often, but the Commanders game is a good candidate. So are the packers games.

[David]

5 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

Colts game.

 

But I would love to see more games like that where we fall behind enough to abandon the run and let him throw 50+ with tempo. Our defense is probably too good to let it happen often, but the Commanders game is a good candidate. So are the packers games.

That game was always in reach. Not garbage time.  He's talking down multiple scores late and the other defense isn't trying to do anything other than not give up a bomb for a quick TD. 

The hail Mary yards were kinda garbagey in hindsight because the play didn't score but yeah. 

[David]

21 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

I think he’s going to have more than 26 TDs. This team has too many weapons. 

Yeah he's on that pace despite it taking him until week 3 to complete a TD pass (not all his fault).

[BigSlick]

42 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

Colts game.

 

But I would love to see more games like that where we fall behind enough to abandon the run and let him throw 50+ with tempo. Our defense is probably too good to let it happen often, but the Commanders game is a good candidate. So are the packers games.

I know the ESTABLISH THE RUN GAME is a  Bears homer meme that’s usually very stupid but in Caleb’s case at this point in his rookie campaign… I think the balance is really good. I’d have a problem if they continued trying to ram the ball into stacked lines and getting nothing out of it but they’ve been successful the last 3 weeks, it’s been a great mix, and it helps Caleb on play action and into more manageable 3rd downs. 
 

I don’t really *want* to see Caleb throw 50+ times right now. 

[Soul]

14 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I know the ESTABLISH THE RUN GAME is a  Bears homer meme that’s usually very stupid but in Caleb’s case at this point in his rookie campaign… I think the balance is really good. I’d have a problem if they continued trying to ram the ball into stacked lines and getting nothing out of it but they’ve been successful the last 3 weeks, it’s been a great mix, and it helps Caleb on play action and into more manageable 3rd downs. 
 

I don’t really *want* to see Caleb throw 50+ times right now. 

I mean, the Packers offensive strategy in many games is to establish the run game, drawing defenses in and then start burning them with mid to long range passes.  I don't think that's a Bears homer meme.  It may not be the right thing for the Bears to do with Williams though, especially since I don't feel like our run game is in the same league as the Packers.

[BigSlick]

I think whatever they're doing right now with Caleb is right, and they should continue doing it until it stops working, lol. (and a lot of what they're doing is hurry up and letting Caleb change things on the fly)

Actually the one thing I will change is to stop scripting the first 15 plays because apparently Waldron wasn't doing it and Bears players were pissed, and then he started scripting plays and every opening drive is dogshit. So whatever plays he's scripting sucks mega ass and just let them pick it out of a hat or something. 

Edited October 14, 2024 by BigSlick

[NotKyle]

JFC this is so good. This is his best week on film yet.

I'm sure the Youtube reactors will find some reads that he could have made but didn't, but for me, watching this, the interception is literally the only thing I can ding him on.  I thought live maybe he missed the safety, but no, he saw the coverage correctly, he just underthrew it by 7 yards. His accuracy falls off a cliff when he throws lofted deep balls. Anything he can throw on a line, even if it's 40 yards downfield, he can hit a dime-sized target, but the up-and-down ones always seem to get it.

I literally can't think of any other complaints or nitpicks.  It's almost hard to list all the things he did well.

He's lasering balls into absurdly tight windows. He's going through his progressions with good tempo. HE's diagnosing the defense well both pre- and post-snap.   He's using his asburdly quick release and pinpoint accuracy to give his playmakers more room to make plays (hell, he even used some no-look arm angles to make sure the defense had less time to flow toward the receivers).  He made the offensive line look better than it was with his pocket presence and footwork.  He's showing an instinctive understanding of the sliding scale of risk based on down and distance, making good throwaways in early situations and then taking risks on third. Hell, he even did a great job minimzing the damage when he did take a sack.   

The only doubts I have about him being a franchise QB are the generic "anything can happen to anyone, who knows" marginal doubts I'd have about literally any player.  He might be a Kyler Williams type franchise QB or he might be a Patrick Mahomes type franchise QB< but his 10th-90th percentile projections are all in that range.

 

[Tryptamine]

QBR really does not like Caleb. 

 

 

[Soul]

9 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I think whatever they're doing right now with Caleb is right, and they should continue doing it until it stops working, lol. (and a lot of what they're doing is hurry up and letting Caleb change things on the fly)

Actually the one thing I will change is to stop scripting the first 15 plays because apparently Waldron wasn't doing it and Bears players were pissed, and then he started scripting plays and every opening drive is dogshit. So whatever plays he's scripting sucks mega ass and just let them pick it out of a hat or something. 

The fast pace is great.  I don't know how defenses can really stop that unless Caleb makes a mistake.  There's no chance for a pass rush.  The ball comes out way too quick for anyone to read his eyes.  If he puts it on target I'm very comfortable DBs can't effectively defend it.

These 15 plays, LOL drop that crap it doesn't work.

[Tryptamine]

One thing I'm not sure I've seen mentioned this week, but that really stood out to me was his adjustments at the line. He was making a ton of adjustments on Sunday. This was 100% something we did not see out of Fields. He's excellent at diagnosing defenses before the snap and making the necessary changes. 

[Derwood]

Such a basic thing, but Caleb actually reading through progressions in a such an upgrade over Fields’  “if the primary receiver is covered just scramble” nonsense we’ve watched for the past 4 years 

Also notably different is that we’re not seeing a lot of 3 yard pass calls on 3rd and long

[NotKyle]

10 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

One thing I'm not sure I've seen mentioned this week, but that really stood out to me was his adjustments at the line. He was making a ton of adjustments on Sunday. This was 100% something we did not see out of Fields. He's excellent at diagnosing defenses before the snap and making the necessary changes. 

I cannot emphasize enough how much Caleb Williams is exposing how much fan cope there is over bad QBs.

It wasn't just Bears fans with Fields, I've seen it from every fan base when they have a QB who just isn't good enough.

"The playcalling is giving him no chance"  Modern NFL offenses operate on QB decision-making.  There are audibles, hot reads, and line checks.  Almost every play has multiple executions built in where the QB can choose to do one of several different things depending on what the defense shows.  They're not going out there with instructions to throw to a specific route no matter what.  The QB has more control over what happens on a play than the playcaller does.

"But nobody is getting open"  In the NFL, single coverage is open enough.  The laws of physics dictate that there's a side where you can throw it that your WR can get to it and the DB can't, throw it there.  I'd point out a play where Williams did it yesterday but there were almost too many to choose from.

"But the offensive line is giving him no chance."  I thought the offensive line was pretty poor in pass protection yesterday.  Darnell Wright had a particularly bad game.  We almost didn't even notice because Williams' pocket presence, footwork and quick release consistently made up for it.

"We don't really have the playmakers"  People vastly underestimate how much better a QB can make the playmakers look by getting them the ball in the right spot, at the right time.  A tick slow, a bit off-target, stare them down a bit too long, all of those things give the defense more time to close.  Williams is making these things look easy and he's giving his receivers repeated opportunities to catch the ball without breaking stride and have a step or two before the defense is on them, which makes a *huge* difference in their ability to break plays.

[NotKyle]

28 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

QBR really does not like Caleb. 

 

 

QBR falls under the same category as PFF grades for me. If you won't tell me the formula, I don't care about it.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

QBR falls under the same category as PFF grades for me. If you won't tell me the formula, I don't care about it.

It's really confusing to me

You have Caleb ranked 26th with 

1317 passing yards, 219.5 YPG,  65.3 COMP%,  9 TD, 5 INT

Meanwhile you have Andy Dalton ranked 9th with 

896 yards, 179.2 YPG, 66.0 COMP%, 7 TD, 4 INT

 

[David]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

QBR really does not like Caleb. 

 

 

What?I mean we knew it was bad the first few weeks but it's not very pertinent right now...

 

Edited October 14, 2024 by David

[gflore34]

11 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

I cannot emphasize enough how much Caleb Williams is exposing how much fan cope there is over bad QBs.

It wasn't just Bears fans with Fields, I've seen it from every fan base when they have a QB who just isn't good enough.

"The playcalling is giving him no chance"  Modern NFL offenses operate on QB decision-making.  There are audibles, hot reads, and line checks.  Almost every play has multiple executions built in where the QB can choose to do one of several different things depending on what the defense shows.  They're not going out there with instructions to throw to a specific route no matter what.  The QB has more control over what happens on a play than the playcaller does.

"But nobody is getting open"  In the NFL, single coverage is open enough.  The laws of physics dictate that there's a side where you can throw it that your WR can get to it and the DB can't, throw it there.  I'd point out a play where Williams did it yesterday but there were almost too many to choose from.

"But the offensive line is giving him no chance."  I thought the offensive line was pretty poor in pass protection yesterday.  Darnell Wright had a particularly bad game.  We almost didn't even notice because Williams' pocket presence, footwork and quick release consistently made up for it.

"We don't really have the playmakers"  People vastly underestimate how much better a QB can make the playmakers look by getting them the ball in the right spot, at the right time.  A tick slow, a bit off-target, stare them down a bit too long, all of those things give the defense more time to close.  Williams is making these things look easy and he's giving his receivers repeated opportunities to catch the ball without breaking stride and have a step or two before the defense is on them, which makes a *huge* difference in their ability to break plays.

Because of, I guess, a general slowness, one could say Fields never gave the play calling, etc. no chance.

Edited October 14, 2024 by gflore34

[NotKyle]

2 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Because of, I guess, a general slowness, one could say Fields gave the play calling, etc. no chance.

I'm trying really hard to make this generic and not about Fields because the fanbase that refused to believe this stuff was an issue with Fields really wants to move on and not talk about Fields anymore.

But yes.  Fields is so freaking bad at all this stuff and it drove me absolutely freaking nuts that people refused to see it.  The pre-snap reads that would let his running back run straight into two run blitzers for a -5.  The failing to see the defender jumping the screen and not throwing the alert slant built into the back of the play to prepare for the possibility of the screen being jumped.  The ungodly slow dropback and slow release making his receivers look "covered" because they gave the defender an extra step or two to close on the ball.

I got so tired of being told it was impossible for a QB to account for those things, that those aren't the QB's job to handle.

On three separate occasions, I saw this exact scenario play out:  Defense shows extra blitzer on Fields' right, the vision side.  If the blitzer comes, it's QB's responsibility to hot read the play.  The blitzer comes, Fields never once shows any reaction to the large man running straight at him, gets blasted for the sack.  Bears fans insist that it wasn't Fields fault because it was a "blind side" sack that the OL let through.  Even putting aside the fact that free rushers are often a designed part of protection and the QB's responsibility,, Fields' awareness and reaction time was so poor that people assumed it must have been a blind side sack when it came from vision side.

[David]

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's really confusing to me

You have Caleb ranked 26th with 

1317 passing yards, 219.5 YPG,  65.3 COMP%,  9 TD, 5 INT

Meanwhile you have Andy Dalton ranked 9th with 

896 yards, 179.2 YPG, 66.0 COMP%, 7 TD, 4 INT

 

To expand on what I already posted... well the first two games having bad grades are really no mystery. 

QBR accounts for context and leverage and horsefeathers like that, so there's probably something about the 4th game that the formula didn't love.

I'm not vouching for it or saying it's a great or terrible stat either way (and, like with most football advanced analytics, given the nature of the game and the sample sizes involved, you need to take it within proper context and/or with a grain of salt), but it's probably no worse than the arbitrarily designed and old passer rating.

There's a decent breakdown here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating#:~:text=The QBR calculation accounts for,expected points added" per play.

Quote

There are six steps to building QBR:^[7]

• Each QB "action play" (passes, rushes, sacks, scrambles, or penalties attributable to the QB) is measured in terms of the expected points added (EPA)
• Adjust for the difficulty of each play. EPA is adjusted based on the type and depth of a pass, and whether the QB was pressured.
• If there is a completion, he only is credited for the typical number of yards after the catch (passer rating takes all yards into effect) based on the type and depth of the pass
• There is a discount on garbage time, or a time where the score is out of reach near the end of the game.
• Opponent adjustment: More credit is given with tougher defenses and vice versa.
• QBR averages the adjusted EPA per play and transforms it to a 0 to 100 scale, with 50 being average.

 

EDIT - Because I'm a dummy and lost track of the schedule.  Said 3rd game when I meant 4th lol.

Edited October 14, 2024 by David

[NotKyle]

This is bad stat work. All the games count. You cannot get an accurate picture by arbitrarily picking an endpoint that gives you the answer you like the most.

I'm going to do it anyway.

Williams' last three games, extrapolated over 17 games, would be 4462 yds 38 TD 13 INT

[David]

7 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

This is bad stat work. All the games count. You cannot get an accurate picture by arbitrarily picking an endpoint that gives you the answer you like the most.

I'm going to do it anyway.

Williams' last three games, extrapolated over 17 games, would be 4462 yds 38 TD 13 INT

It's OK because sample size is a problem regardless of what you do.  No rules.