Jacob Webb Has Come Around Quickly for the Cubs

Things aren't good for the Chicago Cubs right now. They've lost nine in a row and 13 of 15, and it looks every bit as bad as it sounds. If you believe PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs and Brewers are now flipping a metaphorical coin for the NL Central title. If you believe FanGraphs's Playoff Odds, then, uh, things are a lot worse than that. It felt a lot worse than that as the Brewers ran roughshod over the Cubs last week at Wrigley Field, and things have only gotten worse still.

At such moments, it's difficult but important to seek some positives. Surely, somewhere, something is going right. Michael Busch is getting untracked. Ben Brown's lower arm slot and conversion to a sinker guy against righties has made him a viable starting pitcher, for as long as he can keep throwing 97 in that role. Beyond that, though, the good news goes scarce in a hurry.

Here's one more tidbit that engenders some optimism: Jacob Webb has turned out to be a pretty good bullpen-saver. The erstwhile Texas righty signed an extremely under-the-radar deal this winter. The team spent more on Phil Maton, and they spent more on Hunter Harvey. They came into the season planning to lean more on Daniel Palencia, Maton, Harvey, and two lefties on whom they also spent more free-agent dollars (Caleb Thielbar and Hoby Milner) than on Webb; he was just meant to be an extra piece in a deep pen. Once Brown began the season in the bullpen, even he profiled as a more important relief arm than Webb.

Almost immediately, though, things started going wrong. Harvey got hurt. Palencia got hurt. Thielbar got hurt. Three starting pitchers got hurt, forcing Brown (and Colin Rea) to move into the rotation. Maton stunk—and he got hurt. Riley Martin looked like a nice find who could fit into the picture and stop a gap—but then he got hurt. Webb's role got a lot more important than first hoped, in a hurry. That was bad news, because Webb wasn't very good.

Through the end of April, Webb had a 5.06 ERA. In 13 appearances, he pitched 10 2/3 innings, striking out 12 and walking six of the 52 batters he faced. He gave up three homers. He was a middling middle reliever, and when Craig Counsell had no choice but to push him into more important innings, things went pear-shaped.

That hasn't happened in a while, though. Webb has essentially become the team's relief ace, proving more durable and available than Palencia and just plain better than everyone else Counsell has had to call upon. He has a save and two holds. In 12 innings over 10 appearances, he's faced 47 batters, striking out 15 and walking two. He hasn't allowed a homer; he's only allowed one run. He's even stranded all three runners he's inherited this month.

A good reliever is only as important as the leads they've given, and the Cubs haven't gotten their pen any leads lately. Webb has been sparkling, though—thanks mostly to a devastating changeup that he seems to have finally dialed in, location-wise.

Most good changeups have much more depth than Webb's. His is more like a two-seam fastball than a heavy sinker, with run to the arm side but little added drop relative to his four-seamer. When a batter anticipates the change and Webb is anything less than perfect with his location, the hitter can lift it pretty effectively. However, the pitch has a healthy velocity gap from his heater, and because that fastball has some carry to it and holds its line, there's plenty of room for the change to run away and create the differential needed for lots of whiffs.

After leaving the pitch up too often early, Webb now seems to be hitting his spots with it more consistently. He's also matching the pitch to the delivery of his fastball better. Hitters are having a hard time distinguishing the change from the fastball, and it's leading to both ample swings and misses and a lot of weak contact on the ground.

Webb has added a curveball this year, to pair with his sweeper, and he's made some small mechanical tweaks. Mostly, though, he just needed to execute better than he did in April. So far in May, he's executing exceptionally well.

The Cubs still need to regain confidence in some other arms. Hopefully, Harvey can eventually return to patch things, and Maton can take care of the habitual misses that have plagued him all year. Webb can't be their second- or even third-most trusted reliever all season, if the team hopes to make the playoffs. For now, though, he's been a lifesaver. Things are so, so bad. If it weren't for Webb, they'd be even worse.