Bears week 6 vs Jags in London, Sunday at 8:30am

[Rex Buckingham]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Showing up and doing someone else's job unremarkably and winning industry awards for it. Love it.

 

Long snapping officially the most underappreciated job in sports.

pretty sure his somewhat high snap was part of why Cairo got his one kick blocked

[WrigleyField 22]

5 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

pretty sure his somewhat high snap was part of why Cairo got his one kick blocked

I think so too.  On his second PAT snap I noticed it was just a little imperfect and said at time you don't want to be relying on a long FG in a critical moment.

 

Just a little thing a former (very mid) varsity HS long snapper notices lol

[NotKyle]

40 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

pretty sure his somewhat high snap was part of why Cairo got his one kick blocked

Same. People keep saying he was perfect and he definitely wasn't 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 minute ago, NotKyle said:

Same. People keep saying he was perfect and he definitely wasn't 

Perfect

ly acceptable from an emergency longsnapper 

[We Got The Whole 9]

[NotKyle]

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

This was much less a stumble by Roschon than it was a blocking mistake by the LG/C combo.  Jenkins waves the C by him instead of blocking the guy right in front of him and tries to get further down field for another block.  If he actually blocks that guy and lets the C run, that play is probably 25 yards or longer.

The 2 consecutive runs to get to the 7 and then down to the 2 by Swift, the 2nd play was exactly the same, but the C blocks right (instead of left like he had on the previous play) where the RG and RT already had things under control and Swift gets tripped up in the hole by the unblocked player.  They're getting push but there are still a ton of mental errors that are costing them yards that won't fly against good teams.

The TD to Allen that Williams alerted into a fade, someone messed up the blocking assignments (pretty sure it was Jenkins) and a DT was let through unblocked.

It just didn't matter because Williams made a great pre-snap read and threw a perfect fade while Allen ran a nice route and catch.

When you get great QB play, it covers up for a lot of other stuff.  If you're making excuses for your QB by saying everyone else looks bad, it's usually because your QB isn't good enough to make anyone else look good 

Edited October 16, 2024 by NotKyle

[Old Style]

6 hours ago, gflore34 said:

I was in the same boat, however, regardless of whom their playing against we're seeing things from a Bears QB that we haven't seen before.  Looking defenders off, reading progressions, anticipation throws into small windows, these translate no matter the opposition.

Yeah, Jacksonville isn’t great but the Bears kicked their asses. That’s what you’re supposed to do to mediocre teams. Sure the schedule gets tougher but the team is also improving every week. I’m not ready to say they’re a playoff team yet but they’re definitely heading in the right direction. 

[NotKyle]

Yet another play that I love more every time I look at it, this time the second TD to Kmet

https://streamable.com/0149dw

To me, that looks like his third read.  He's looking first at Moore on the slant to his left, but gets off it *immediately* when Moore doesn't get a clean release and the LB following Swift into the flat is crossing the throwing lane. (You could argue Williams is never intending on throwing it to Moore there and is just looking that way to fake out the defense).

I'm pretty sure his next read was supposed to be Allen on the rub in, but the instant that Williams sees the LB isn't turning his hips to follow Kmet to the back corner, he fires off the throw.  It wasn't like a 1..2..3 rhythm progression, just an instant see-and-react.

He makes that look so much easier than it is.  A whole lot of NFL Qbs would hang on that slant for a half-second to let it develop, maybe throw it anyway in the back of the end zone with a small chance of completion.  And the fans say "Wow, our WR can't get open on a simple slant, how could any QB succeed in these conditions?" Or they hang on it, then try to work back to the right, and by that time the bullrush on Wright is getting home and they either get hit as they throw or outright sacked. and the fans say "wow, our OL is so trash, the QB doesn't even have a chance."

This is what we've been begging to see for decades. That was the Aaron Rodgers BS.

[minnesotacubsfan]

kyle being presented with caleb highlights

Edited October 17, 2024 by minnesotacubsfan

[minnesotacubsfan]

but honestly, i like this Kyle a lot better then previous Kyles

 

 

[BigbadB]

15 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

but honestly, i like this Kyle a lot better then previous Kyles

 

 

Caleb doing things even Caleb doesn't know Caleb is doing.

[WrigleyField 22]

Unironically:

 

[Old Style]

4 hours ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

but honestly, i like this Kyle a lot better then previous Kyles

 

 

That’s a low bar, though. 

[UMFan83]

19 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Yet another play that I love more every time I look at it, this time the second TD to Kmet

https://streamable.com/0149dw

To me, that looks like his third read.  He's looking first at Moore on the slant to his left, but gets off it *immediately* when Moore doesn't get a clean release and the LB following Swift into the flat is crossing the throwing lane. (You could argue Williams is never intending on throwing it to Moore there and is just looking that way to fake out the defense).

I'm pretty sure his next read was supposed to be Allen on the rub in, but the instant that Williams sees the LB isn't turning his hips to follow Kmet to the back corner, he fires off the throw.  It wasn't like a 1..2..3 rhythm progression, just an instant see-and-react.

He makes that look so much easier than it is.  A whole lot of NFL Qbs would hang on that slant for a half-second to let it develop, maybe throw it anyway in the back of the end zone with a small chance of completion.  And the fans say "Wow, our WR can't get open on a simple slant, how could any QB succeed in these conditions?" Or they hang on it, then try to work back to the right, and by that time the bullrush on Wright is getting home and they either get hit as they throw or outright sacked. and the fans say "wow, our OL is so trash, the QB doesn't even have a chance."

This is what we've been begging to see for decades. That was the Aaron Rodgers BS.

ive been loving reading these this week and I think they're spot on observations.  Going from Fields who was completely indecisive and had issues with slow processing time to this is quite jarring in the best way possible.  Since I've never really rooted for a great QB at the pro level, it is hard to understand what really makes a great QB but when you actually see it in front of you it just kind of clicks, and as you pointed out you start to understand how hollow many of the excuses we've made for QBs in the past are (WR can't get open, OL can't block, etc). 

I always wondered why the Patriots rarely invested a ton into WRs when Brady was in his prime.  Obviously they had Moss for a couple of years but there were many years where it was Welker or Edelmann and some scraps.  I'm guessing even though Brady would bitch about getting new WRs, the Patriots knew they didn't need them (at least because they were paying Brady so much).  Same thing with Rodgers after they traded Adams and of course now with Maholmes, though Maholmes is really struggling this season.  But at the end of the day, the Chiefs could afford to trade away Hill and still continue winning Super Bowls.  The Bears will have to make those types of tough decisions in a couple of years, but for now lets take advantage of the rookie contract while we can and ball out.

[NotKyle]

I'm the exact same insufferable, obsessive message board addict I've always been. But Bears fans all over the internet have been telling me how refreshing my takes are when from my POV they're the *exact same takes* that got strong pushback the last few years.  I started to write several paragraphs on the insane (from my POV) way neurotypicals approach belief, but I'm trying to keep this short.

Things like:

"Quick, accurate decisions from the QB are the most important weapon in football and will make your supporting cast on offense look significantly better or worse."

"The QB actually has at least as much, if not more, control over the playcalling as the OC.  The OC can't see the defense lined up and the headset cuts off at 15 seconds.   Through target choice, checks, options, alerts, hots, and scrambles, the QB has final responsibility for everything including targets and run/pass ratio."

"Single coverage is always open enough in the NFL, a good throw to leverage will give your receiver a chance."

Have gone from the stupidest thing they've ever heard to brililant insight.
 

[NotKyle]

8 hours ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

kyle being presented with caleb highlights

I'm so enamored. I'm actually trying to tone it down. I could make a dozen posts like that about different plays this week.

Actually I'm gonna do another one.
 

  
Go to 1:29 if the timestamp link didn't work.  If you can time it right, pause it at the exact moment Williams begins his windup, around 1:32.  Look at how he's staring down and squared up to Kmet on the in route, and both 51 and 30 on Jacksonville are reading his eyes and crashing down it.

Except he doesn't throw it where he's looking,  He throws this funky little no-look sidearm to Johnson in the flat, who thanks to Williams' manipulation of the defense, doesn't have anyone within 6 yards of him.  Separation is a QB stat. Everything is a QB stat.

(Actually if we really wanted to get into the weeds we could talk about how this is a great example of how one of the ways offensive coordinators are trying to beat split field coverage is by sending receivers across the field to create 4 receivers on the weak side against 3 defenders in coverage).

Edited October 17, 2024 by NotKyle

[NotKyle]

Spoiler

 

 

Will it let me post a gif? It was almost a basketball hook shot.

[minnesotacubsfan]

did you use the gif button? Thats how I end up getting them posted:

 

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, NotKyle said:

I'm the exact same insufferable, obsessive message board addict I've always been. But Bears fans all over the internet have been telling me how refreshing my takes are when from my POV they're the *exact same takes* that got strong pushback the last few years.  I started to write several paragraphs on the insane (from my POV) way neurotypicals approach belief, but I'm trying to keep this short.

Things like:

"Quick, accurate decisions from the QB are the most important weapon in football and will make your supporting cast on offense look significantly better or worse."

"The QB actually has at least as much, if not more, control over the playcalling as the OC.  The OC can't see the defense lined up and the headset cuts off at 15 seconds.   Through target choice, checks, options, alerts, hots, and scrambles, the QB has final responsibility for everything including targets and run/pass ratio."

"Single coverage is always open enough in the NFL, a good throw to leverage will give your receiver a chance."

Have gone from the stupidest thing they've ever heard to brililant insight.
 

It’s probably because Bears fans have never rooted for a good QB. We’ve seen them on other teams but it’s different when it’s your guy and you’re watching them closely. 
 

Funny that you seem to want people to feel stupid for agreeing with you now. Just take a victory lap and let it go

[NotKyle]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Funny that you seem to want people to feel stupid for agreeing with you now. Just take a victory lap and let it go

Remember how I was *just* saying that NTs befuddle me because they try to infer feelings-based motivations for saying things...

Anyways, forget that, let's do one more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIGi2plj6do&t=143s

2:23 of the video if the timestamp in the link doesn't work

1st and 10 from the Carolina 23, 2:05 to go in the first half.   26 yard scramble.

Two things I want to pick out about this play.

First, it's 1st and 10.  He's got some receivers in tight single coverage, and you *could* make those throws, but why risk it on first down?  All game long, Williams showed a veteran-level instinct for being cautious on early downs and taking needed risks throwing into tight windows on 3rd down.  

Second, he stands in the pocket for 5 full seconds before running. Why not 4 seconds? why not 6?  What was his trigger to run?

Watch 33 on Jacksonville.   He's the last man in the box behind the LOS, and Williams sees him turn his back to follow Kmet. That's the trigger to run and he takes it immediately.    That's the difference between a 5-yard run where you have to try to beat a LB in space, or a 23-yard-run where nobody comes close to you.

 

[BigbadB]

I've always said that you need a QB that can force the defense to back off the pressure. Watching the Broncos game last night, New Orleans was desperate to make things happen defensively, so they kept bringing pressure on Bo Nix. He did an amazing job of making the first wave miss and then either taking off running or finding an open man underneath coverage time and time again.

Caleb has also been making the OLine look better by making snap decisions and making those plays successful. Granted, there is still an argument to be made that they are playing much weaker defenses of late. But, he is still just 6 games into his rookie year. He's learning it all on the fly and improving week to week on his decision skills. QB school showed where the OLine is still making dangerous mistakes, but Caleb has done an amazing job covering for those mistakes with plus plays or throwaways. Fields would have been sacked at least 30 times this year with the defensive schemes teams have been bringing.

[UMFan83]

It really is crazy how great the rookie class is looking so far.  Caleb and Jayden have looked like future top QBs.  Nix after a slow start is solid if not spectacular.  Maye showed a lot of promise in his first start, albeit with some mistakes.  Even JJ threw 3 TD passes in his first preseason game including a couple of bombs before getting hurt and lost for the season.  Rattler hasn't been *good*, but looks much more competent than your average 5th round rookie

Edited October 18, 2024 by UMFan83

[Bearded_Beef]

14 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Remember how I was *just* saying that NTs befuddle me because they try to infer feelings-based motivations for saying things...

It's kind of a fair inference because you're gloating though.  You were right about Fields man.  Wrong about Theo and it's looking like you might have been wrong about Poles too, but your self-admitted, obsessive content consumption and analytical tendencies probably give you better insight than most.  Trying to figure out quarterbacking isn't easy and thats especially true for Bears fans who haven't really had a good one, outside of maybe Cutler.

None of this is to take shots btw, I have appreciated reading your takes over the many years here and at PSD, even when I have vehemently disagreed and even argued with you.

[NotKyle]

36 minutes ago, Bearded_Beef said:

It's kind of a fair inference because you're gloating though.  You were right about Fields man.  Wrong about Theo and it's looking like you might have been wrong about Poles too, but your self-admitted, obsessive content consumption and analytical tendencies probably give you better insight than most.  Trying to figure out quarterbacking isn't easy and thats especially true for Bears fans who haven't really had a good one, outside of maybe Cutler.

None of this is to take shots btw, I have appreciated reading your takes over the many years here and at PSD, even when I have vehemently disagreed and even argued with you.

I was completely, thoroughly, gloat-inducingly right about Theo. There was no sustained success.  There was tank, then there was spank, then there was another rebuild.

I thought that post was fairly self- deprecating.  "Wow Kyle is kinda cool now" "no I'm still insufferable."

Edited October 18, 2024 by NotKyle

[NotKyle]

This is gonna be an extremely Kyle post. Don't open the spoiler if you don't enjoy reading those. "Dead dove, do not eat."

 

Spoiler

The point isn't whether i was right or wrong about Fields.  Maybe I'm wrong about Fields and he's going to thrive in Pittsburgh or somewhere else long-term.  Maybe I'm wrong about Williams and I'm overexaggerating how good he's been or underestimating the impact of the weak defenses we've faced.

The point is how fascinating it is to me that the exact same set of beliefs about QB play are being perceived completely differently.

I wish people would just base their beliefs on ... you know... *belief* and not social positioning.  It's both fascinating and infuriating that I can be considered either an obnoxious contrarian troll or "wow, kinda cool lately" for being the exact same person with the exact same opinions about football (or baseball, or whatever else is the topic at hand.) 

I think QB is so overwhelmingly important that it blots out the sun and makes it difficult to evaluate how good anything else involved with offense is.  UMFan disagrees and thinks that there's a huge coaching component to what appears to be QB success and failure.

His belief is mutually exclusive to mine, we can't both be right.  The only interesting question to me is which one of us is it. Maybe it's him! Keeping an eye on Darnold or seeing what happens if Love gets injured again would be quite interesting to me. There is an underlying reality of bedrock truth that we are both trying to describe, and one of us has a clearer picture of it than the other.  That is *infintely* more interesting to me than:

1) Trying to infer personality traits about him from his belief
2) Which belief would be more fun if it is true
3) Trying to divine how he's trying to position himself within the perception of community by having that belief

Someone explained it to me that "Autistics speak in words, NTs speak in vibes. The words are irrelevant and just vehicles for the vibes" and I completely hate it but I'm starting to understand it, like a foreign language that you at least get the grammatical structure even if your vocab is weak and you're nowhere close to fluent.

That's why people seem to have the perception that I was wrong about Theo Epstein, whereas from my POV I was completely right about Theo Epstein.

I killed trillions of pixels posting about it, so I'm sure I said a lot of things, but the basisc theme was:

"You should not need to tank and divert assets to rebuild, and if you do, it doesn't tell us anything about your ability to sustain success because sustained success comes from having a consistent farm system without having to divert resources that should be going to the MLB club.  What Epstein is doing hasn't shown us anything about his ability to sustain success, and it's very possible that we're going to need another rebuild once his golden generation passes through.   Maybe we win a WS with that golden generation, maybe we don't."

And that's exactly what happened. There was no sustained success. We narrowly got through the playoff coinflips once while our golden generation was in place, which separates Epstein from MacPhail, but then we went right back to another rebuild.

But in vibe-speak, the exact details of what I said are irrelevant.  The words I typed don't matter, the vibe does, and since my vibe was anti-Epstein in the broader sense, anything pro-Epstein (like winning the WS) must contradict me.

It was the exact same phenomenon as the QB analysis but in reverse.

Me in 2011: Rebuilds are dumb and unnecessary. We're a big-market team with the resources to simultaneously compete at the MLB level and create a pipeline of scouting and development

Me in 2013: Rebuilds are dumb and unnecessary. We're a big-market team with the resources to simultaneously compete at the MLB level and create a pipeline of scouting and development

Me in 2024: Rebuilds are dumb and unnecessary. We're a big-market team with the resources to simultaneously compete at the MLB level and create a pipeline of scouting and development

That exact same opinion was extremely popular with NSBB in 2011, extremely unpopular with NSBB in 2013, and extremely popular again in 2024.  Because people don't seem to have actual beliefs that they use to form their opinions. Their opinions seem to be based entirely on a handful of emotional hueristics like "what is most fun to believe in the moment, unless outweighed by my fear of disappointment later" or "what will maximize my sense of belonging in the community."

Same thing with Poles.  What was I wrong about with Poles?

My fundamental beliefs on Poles has been "I love his approach to value, I don't love some of his positional priorities, but his tenure will ultimately be defined by if he hits on QB."

Isn't that what has more or less happened?  His approach to value put him in position to get lucky enough with the Carolina pick to get Caleb Williams, and it sure looks like his QB hit and his tenure is going to be a success (although that hasn't happened yet).   

But I was wrong about him because the general vibe of those words was anti-Poles and pro-Poles things have transpired?

Now, that's not to say beliefs shouldn't change. Beliefs should change when better information comes along.  But that "better information" shouldn't always correlate with "what feels good to believe right now."  If it does, you're not trying to be right, you're trying to feel good, and it seems obvious to me that is wrong but apparently it's not.