Bears week 5 vs Panthers: Sunday noon on FOX

[jersey cubs fan]

Chicago is a 3.5 point favorite at home against the lowly Panthers, who are trying to avoid picking 1st next April with the Red Rocket at the helm. Dalton came back to earth a little bit after coming out the gates red hot. He’s still the type of guy that has given Eberflus’s Bears defense trouble, but maybe Chicago has improved enough to be able to stop the mediocre competent veteran QB this year. 
 

Carolina is the type of defense to give Williams an opportunity to produce for a full game, and hopefully he capitalizes on it. The offense has gone from one decent drive to one good quarter to one good half and now maybe they can put together a complete game. They should be able to run the ball which hopefully opens up the passing game. 
 

A win keeps them in playoff contention this season and quiets the boo birds for a month, before they return to Soldier Field again. By then the season will probably look a lot different. 

[mul21]

Is DJ Moore actually dogging it and is it a problem?  That film review posted in last weeks game thread is concerning at the very least.

[gflore34]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Is DJ Moore actually dogging it and is it a problem?  That film review posted in last weeks game thread is concerning at the very least.

I remember Moore getting a little dinged up, believe it was before the TD pass, could be he was playing through some pain.

[BigSlick]

This is the one game where I'll be furious if they lose (partly because I'll be in attendance). If there's such a thing as a 'gimme' game, it's the Carolina Panthers. I'm glad the Panthers bagged a win for themselves so they aren't playing in complete desperation mode. 

I will not be able to stomach seeing 37 year old Andy Dalton stunt on us. Here's hoping they build on the offensive momentum they ended on this past week. 

[BigbadB]

Maybe this OLine can have a full week of practice at the positions they will actually be playing and find a little cohesiveness to protect the QB a little better. Caleb missed some opportunities, overthrew on a few others and the line gave him no chance on several more. It seems like they are getting close. I like how Jersey pointed out they had a good series one game, a good quarter in another and a decent half in another. It's kinda accurate. These next few weeks seem like a time to get the timing down, lock down the assignments and run some more deep plays. Not every series needs to be 10-12 plays for TD's. 

Rome looks like he's ready to run wild on opposing defenses. He appears to be Justin Jefferson open A LOT.

[raw]

If there was ever a game for the offense to have a breakout performance........it would have been the Colts game. Oh or the Rams game. Or this week vs Carolina. And if that doesn't work out, the offense is certainly due to break out in London vs Jacksonville, or coming off a bye vs Washington, or vs Arizona, or certainly against the Patriots.

Obviously, this offense is a work in progress with a rookie QB learning his weapons. An offensive line learning how to block guys that either rush straight through them (Jones) or don't rush straight (everyone else). And an offensive coordinator learning his ass from a hole in the ground. But this is an unprecedented run of 7 straight games against bottom 10 defenses in EPA per pass play. Most are also bad against the run as well.

In some ways, the Bears are getting close to looking like a legit offensive team. The Bears went from a 0 offensive TD game that they won, to score 1 TD and having a chance late despite 2 INTs, to a 395 total yard outburst....while only scoring 16 points, to a season's best 24 points all on offense.....while only gaining 265 total yards. But last week's 265 did feature a strong 4.7 yards per carry and a turnover free checkdown fest of efficient offense. Maybe it's something to build on going forward. Or maybe it's just another game in a choppy rookie season for a mediocrely coached team.

The Panthers defense does nothing well. They have given up the 4th most rushing yards per game, the 5th most passing yards per game, and a whopping 32.3 points per game, easily the league's worst. They only have 4 turnovers in 4 games. They have 5 sacks in 4 games, with 3 of them coming with a loss of 3 yards or less. So, their 1 sack per game isn't even necessarily a drive killer. 

On offense, the Panthers are actually, low key, pretty tough. While their overall numbers aren't very good, it's worth noting that the change from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton has made a world of difference. They went from 120 yards passing, 175 total yards and 6.5 points per game to 270 passing, 400+ total and 30 points per game with the QB change. And certainly if the Bears allow them to play with the Dalton level offense, they will have a tough time winning this game.

The Panthers spent a TON of money on the interior of their OL, and it's worked wonders. After Young got sacked 6 times in the first 2 games, they've only allowed 2 since, including 0 last week (though the Bengals have the worst pass rush I've ever seen). They are also running the ball pretty well with their top RB, Chuba Hubbard averaging a whopping 5.4 yards per carry, despite starting the season with a 6 carry, 14 yard Week 1 performance. The Bears have gotten a lot of good stuff from their interior DL of Dexter and Billings, but their work will be cut out for them this week facing like $200M worth of interior linemen. The DEs will have to squeeze inside on the run game and most importantly, the LBs will need to step up and make plays.

This is obviously a game the Bears SHOULD win. They are at home, they are facing an inferior team. Said team is not as desperate as they would have been had they not gotten that Week 3 win. 

If the Bears can combine the opportunistic defense of Week 1, with the efficiency and run game of Week 4, and the big pass play explosion of Week 3....we can finally see the full potential of this team. But most likely, we will be frustrated by the first half and the halftime adjustments allow the Bears to squeak out a much closer game than this should be. 

[Brian707]

The two Red Rifle games were against  a dog horsefeathers Raiders team and a bad Cincy D. I would be shocked if the Panthers score >17 points.  

[BigSlick]

Oh I wouldn’t so confident of that. Eberflus defenses have had a hard time against decent QBs who take their time and find open receivers (a defense being bad against good QBs is a bit redundant, I know). The Dalton led Panthers have been able to move the ball and score points. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they hit more than 17. 
 

The real test here is if the Bears can put together 4 full quarters of competent offense.

[CubinNY]

It would be nice to have a 37-7 laugher, but that's not how they operate. I expect 24-17 with a game on the line defensive stop. 

[minnesotacubsfan]

27-24, the Caleb Comeback Game. #18 scores 14 points in the 3rd and 4th after being down to lead the Bears to a W and his legend begins

 

 

[Andy]

Working in the Bears' favor here - LB Shaq Thompson suffered a season-ending injury last week and his backup, Josey Jewell, is also likely out for this game because he got hurt after Thompson did.

[minnesotacubsfan]

linebackers dont matter

[BigSlick]

Here's something: In his 3 seasons with the Bears Justin Fields had a Success Rate % of 38.2%, 36.7% and 38.4%. Through his first 4 games, Caleb Williams has a Success Rate % of 40.1%. 

[NotKyle]

Well, I made it a week. And most of that was spent posting on reddit, so we'll call that plan a failure. Disability is disability for a reason I guess.

So yeah, the Panthers suck. I wish they hadn't Rosen'd Bryce Young so quickly, obviously.  WIth Dalton, their offense looks OK.  Dalton won't miss open receivers if you give him time, and he gets a lot of time because their offensive line is very very good.   He doesn't scare me as much as Stafford did, but they can move the football and we probably won't shut them down completely.

Their defense is so bad.  I know we keep saying "wow we're playing a bad defense" but this one is legit the worst. They're trying to play 3-4 with a below-average 4-3 DT playing NT and a set of ILBs that was nothing specal even before they were down to their 3rd string, which they now are.  And the rest of the defense isn't any better, it's a collection of washed guys on their last contract and a bunch of never-will-be's.

I didn't love the Rams matchup because their defense is bad overall but pretty good at getting pressure on the QB and that can be an issue for us, and it was an issue for us as Verse made Jones look as bad in pass pro as just about anyone has.  The Panthers don't have any of that, they're 32nd in the league in pressure rate.  No one has put up fewer than 330 yards on them in a game this season.

The only thing standing in the way of our offense this week is the possibility of rookie QB turnovers and our persistent case of steponowndickitis. 

If I had faith that the Bears were a good team, I'd say there's no way they could lose this.  But since I'm not convinced they are, they're perfectly capable of losing it. If they do, we can probably start watching draft order standings.

[BigSlick]

Welcome back to the fold, brother

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Wait a minute, if you're not Kyle then who is?

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Wait a minute, if you're not Kyle then who is?

https://imstilloscar.com

[BigbadB]

I get being a bit scared of Dalton since Stafford did so well against this defense. But, Eberflus has the same similar bend but don't break defensive scheme we've been used to seeing with this team forever. Let them have the stuff in between if we can't get a turnover, but don't let them into the endzone. I don't feel like any of the Panthers receivers are end zone threats. I might worry about Mingo or Leggette getting behind Stevenson for a deep one at some point, but in general, I don't find any of these receivers to be much of a threat in general. 

This team has been good at containing opposing offenses in point totals, and I don't see that changing this week. In fact, I'd actually expect that Carolina is playing catch up for the entirety of this game based on Kyle's (err, NotKyle's) description of their defense. Rome has been extremely open, and it's time to let the dogs eat. This is the perfect game to start getting Caleb that high level of confidence in his guys and his arm.

With my man cave set up with 6 tv's in front of my fireplace and another one behind the bar, I have yet to have a Carolina game on anywhere other than behind the bar, which I only peak at when the Bears are on commercial and nothing exciting is happening in any of the other games, I'm just not all that familiar with the Panthers. I'd like to see 30+ from this Bears offense this week. Might be asking a bit too much, but one can hope.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cousins is gonna blow Mooney up. He's currently slightly lagging behind outproducing our 3 guys combined. Even if it is in one more game that is kind of sad. 

[BigSlick]

Having Kirk Cousins throw 58 times seems crazy to me. Yeah I know they won and he had 500+ yards but it seems insane to do that with your 36 year old QB who came off a season ending injury 

alls that to say is I’m happy for Mooney. Definitely the top of the “he needed a change of scenery” type guys. 

Edited October 4, 2024 by BigSlick

[mul21]

14 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Having Kirk Cousins throw 58 times seems crazy to me. Yeah I know they won and he had 500+ yards but it seems insane to do that with your 36 year old QB who came off a season ending injury 

alls that to say is I’m happy for Mooney. Definitely the top of the “he needed a change of scenery” type guys. 

He would have needed 10 less throws and no OT if Mooney could catch the ball when he's wide open.

[NotKyle]

It's going to take awhile before the brutal first two games stop dragging down our offensive stats, but I think eventually they will. I'd be surprised if Williams has more 79-net-yard games in him.

Williams Games 1-2:  56% completion rate, 134 yds/g, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4.1 yds/attempt, 53.0 rating
Williams Games 3-4:  66.7% completion rate, 250 yds/g, 3 TD, 2 INT, 6,9 yds/attempt, 88.8 rating

Obvously all the games count, but I think it matches the eye test that says Williams looked overwhelmed and confused for a game or two before settling down. 

I think our offensive line is below-average but not terrible, like around 20th in the league.  We are 21st in pressure rate allowed, 17th in pocket time, and 23rd in yards before contact.  (We are dead last in broken tackles and broken tackle rate from RBs, with 1 broken tackle in 100 rush attempts).  Swift had a huge game last week as we were able to get him the ball in space and give him some lanes to run through untouched, but he's still a massive part of the reason the running game struggled weeks 1-3.

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

It's going to take awhile before the brutal first two games stop dragging down our offensive stats, but I think eventually they will. I'd be surprised if Williams has more 79-net-yard games in him.

Williams Games 1-2:  56% completion rate, 134 yds/g, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4.1 yds/attempt, 53.0 rating
Williams Games 3-4:  66.7% completion rate, 250 yds/g, 3 TD, 2 INT, 6,9 yds/attempt, 88.8 rating

Obvously all the games count, but I think it matches the eye test that says Williams looked overwhelmed and confused for a game or two before settling down. 

I think our offensive line is below-average but not terrible, like around 20th in the league.  We are 21st in pressure rate allowed, 17th in pocket time, and 23rd in yards before contact.  (We are dead last in broken tackles and broken tackle rate from RBs, with 1 broken tackle in 100 rush attempts).  Swift had a huge game last week as we were able to get him the ball in space and give him some lanes to run through untouched, but he's still a massive part of the reason the running game struggled weeks 1-3.

Where are these stats from?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

2 hours ago, mul21 said:

He would have needed 10 less throws and no OT if Mooney could catch the ball when he's wide open.

And that wasn't his only drop.

[NotKyle]

2 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Where are these stats from?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/advanced.htm