Bears week 5 vs Panthers: Sunday noon on FOX

[UMFan83]

Im so confused, what happened with Kyle?  Why is he back with a new user name?  

Edited October 4, 2024 by UMFan83

[We Got The Whole 9]

37 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/advanced.htm

Cool, thanks. 

 

Not cool: Caleb leads the league considerably in bad throw%

 

 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Im so confused, what happened with Kyle?  Why is he back with a new user name?  

He asked to be imprisoned only to escape three days later.

 

[NotKyle]

39 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Cool, thanks. 

 

Not cool: Caleb leads the league considerably in bad throw%

 

 

It's definitely been a problem so far.  But I'm not edging towards the ledge on it just yet.  Film-wise, I think it splits into three categories of bad throws  Or like 2.5 because 2 and 3 kinda overlap

1) I don't think he's got the best up-and-down, 40+yard deep ball.  That part is just he is who he is, I remember at least one pre-draft scouting report mentioning it.  That's not disqualifying, neither does Patrick Mahomes.

2) He's racking up bad throws on miscommunications and bad timing plays.  We've all seen the times he clearly expected a receiver to run a different route than they did. 

But there's also throws where I think he put the ball exactly where he wanted to, but he throws it assuming a perfect release before the release actually happens.    Which kinda bleeds over into my next category

3) He's unwilling to hang balls up in the air and let his receiver outleverage a DB to get win it.  IMO, he's throwing too many "my guy or nobody" balls.  Not every throw needs to be a laser dime that the receiver can exactly reach if he runs through it and uses his whole length.  If Rome Odunze in heading toward the end zone in a 1-on-1 with leverage behind the DB, hang it up in the air and let Odunze show why it's good to be a 6-3 receiver with a 39-inch vertical.

I actually thought WIlliams' accuracy really popped on film against the Rams.  He was placing balls *exactly* where he wanted them, perfectly leading receivers with eye-level throws out in front of them (often with excellent anticipation).  If he can throw it on a line, even 30 yards downfield, he can put it anywhere he wants almost every time.  

His issues right now are processing and confidence in his processing, which is normal for a 4th-game rookie.  I'll be concerned if he doesn't show steady progress in those issues throughout his rookie season, but not yet.

So like, right now, we could compare his processing of NFL defenses to learning a language:  He looks conversational but not fluent.  He looks like he knows his pre-snap reads and he reads his immediate post-snap landmarks correctly most of the time, but he's not always picking up on the small details that make the difference between a good read and a great one. 

Like on that play where Odunze got behind everyone.  He read that the safety was hanging out in the area Odunze was running through, which would be an indication to move on from Odunze and down to Kmet, who he hit for a 10-yard first down throw.  But what he didn't notice was that the safeties hips were completely flat, he was looking to jump a shorter route but had zero chance to turn and run with Odunze downfield, which Odunze recognized and blew right past him.  



 

[NotKyle]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Im so confused, what happened with Kyle?  Why is he back with a new user name?  

 

 

Spoiler

Acknowledging that my tendency toward hyperfixations are a disability, I asked Brock to lock me out of the other sports forum for a couple weeks to see if I could break my current hyperfixation with football (along with deleting my accounts at other places like reddit).

The Bears play one three-hour game per week.  I don't need to spend 8+ hours a day rewatching film and killing entire forests' worth of pixels writing post after post after post.

This attempt failed pretty badly. I made it like half a day and went right back to it.

I didn't want to ask brock to unlock me after putting him through the trouble of locking me, so I just made a new account.

 

Edited October 4, 2024 by NotKyle

[Derwood]

Based on current records, the Bears now have one of the hardest remaining schedules in the NFL

[Brian707]

8 hours ago, Derwood said:

Based on current records, the Bears now have one of the hardest remaining schedules in the NFL

Get to the first Packers game 6-3

[Bertz]

11 hours ago, Derwood said:

Based on current records, the Bears now have one of the hardest remaining schedules in the NFL

I think the Vikings being 4-0 is doing most of the work there.  Commanders and Vikings are a lot tougher than they looked heading into the year.  49ers and Packers seem to be a little less scary.  Jaguars seem way less scary. All in all I don't think much has changed.

Edited October 6, 2024 by Bertz

[Derwood]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the Vikings being 4-0 is doing most of the work there.  Commanders and Vikings are a lot tougher than they looked heading into the year.  49ers and Packers seem to be a little less scary.  Jaguars seem way less scary. All in all I don't think much has changed.

I saw this based on 2xMIN, 2xGB, 2xDET, WSH, SEA.

Combined records of teams over next 5 games: 6-14
Combined records of teams for final 8 games: 23-9

[BigSlick]

The back half of the season is gonna be tough, no doubt. One hopes the offense is up and running by then. 
 

I’m not pinning all my hopes on this team selling out to make the playoffs this particular year. Itd be nice if they do. But if they end the season 8-9 or 9-8 and Caleb and the offense have made some major strides, it’s a successful season. Yeah I kinda deluded myself into think in the offseason this is a 10+ win season, but clearly we need to take more time with Caleb and the offense to get roaring. That isn’t a crazy expectation given the history of rookie QBs.

Edited October 6, 2024 by BigSlick

[Soul]

29 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

The back half of the season is gonna be tough, no doubt. One hopes the offense is up and running by then. 
 

I’m not pinning all my hopes on this team selling out to make the playoffs this particular year. Itd be nice if they do. But if they end the season 8-9 or 9-8 and Caleb and the offense have made some major strides, it’s a successful season. Yeah I kinda deluded myself into think in the offseason this is a 10+ win season, but clearly we need to take more time with Caleb and the offense to get roaring. That isn’t a crazy expectation given the history of rookie QBs.

Yeah but this is year 3 of the leadership and coaching regime.  I’m not just giving everyone a pass on 2 failed seasons because they drafted a new QB.  It’s not that I disagree with you but at what point do we hold people responsible for failure?

[NotKyle]

The back half does look scary, but NFL seasons are long and a lot can change. A couple key injuries, something gets figured out on film, suddenly a team that looks hard now could be a lot worse.

The Vikings are probably legit, I'm not sold on Darnold, but their defense is definitely the caliber that can carry a team deep into the playoffs.

Maybe I'll eat these words, but I'm not sold at all on the Packers and think they're getting a perception boost from historical mystique. What they're showing on the field and in stats looks extremely mediocre.  

I'm a little lower on the Bears than I was pre-season.  Caleb Williams wasn't as immediately ready to set the NFL on fire as I hoped.   It's still possible to have a great season, but 6-8 wins seems more probable to me.  If they want more, it's entirely on the QB taking a quick leap and becoming a legit plus QB by NFL standards right away.

[Wilson A2000]

1 hour ago, Soul said:

Yeah but this is year 3 of the leadership and coaching regime.  I’m not just giving everyone a pass on 2 failed seasons because they drafted a new QB.  It’s not that I disagree with you but at what point do we hold people responsible for failure?

This year. Eberflus makes the playoffs to keep his job or he’s gone.

[NotKyle]

1 hour ago, Soul said:

Yeah but this is year 3 of the leadership and coaching regime.  I’m not just giving everyone a pass on 2 failed seasons because they drafted a new QB.  It’s not that I disagree with you but at what point do we hold people responsible for failure?

I mean, do you want "responsibility" or do you want objective analysis?

Because sure, if you want responsibility, it's not unreasonable to say that the record is the record and fire Eberflus.  I don't think we'd be losing anything all that irreplacable.

But objectively, they tanked a season, they had a visibly improved season 2, then they brought in a rookie QB and it's extremely rare to win with rookie QBs.  Do many coaches get that kind of slack in the NFL? No, but that's what happened.

I know Bears fans have the same laundry list of meatball coach complaints that 25 other fanbases have, but I think Eberflus is fine. He's not a difference-maker like Reid or Tomlin, but he's not terrible either.  I have basically two criteria for a coach:  Don't lose the locker room, be capable of running hiring people who can run the current NFL meta.  

We got out of whack on the GM/Coach/QB cycle back when we let Pace trade up to draft a QB, which was a huge mistake.  You could make a case that they should have fired Eberflus last offseason, but since they didn't, the easiest way to get back in sync is just not fire Eberflus for failing to win with a rookie QB.

[NotKyle]

3 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

This year. Eberflus makes the playoffs to keep his job or he’s gone.

Is that what you want or what you think the Bears will do?

[Wilson A2000]

4 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

Is that what you want or what you think the Bears will do?

Both. If the offense stinks and they don’t make the playoffs because Eberflus hasn’t been able to get a decent OC, that’s on him. Get Slowik or Johnson. 

[Derwood]

I've been using methstreams to watch the out-of-market Bears games this year. What's the simplest way to cast that to my TV via AppleTV? I have work to do on my laptop and would like to do that and watch the game at the same time

 

[NotKyle]

Hey look, Sam Darnold's back

 

[jumbo]

Ha, 3 INT day for AAron 

[NotKyle]

I hate games like this because it feels like there's no upside. There's only meeting expectations and major failure.

The only thing standing in the way of the offense today is Caleb Williams. This is a pass/fail game for him (for the week, not that he fails forever if he has a bad one today).

[Derwood]

14 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I've been using methstreams to watch the out-of-market Bears games this year. What's the simplest way to cast that to my TV via AppleTV? I have work to do on my laptop and would like to do that and watch the game at the same time

 

Figured it out: had to stream from my phone

[NotKyle]

That's all Caleb Williams.  He sprayed an easy throw and got saved from an interception, then got confused and held the ball on third down.

[Derwood]

"Jayden Daniels would have thrown 3 TD's on that drive!!!!"

- Twitter, probably

[Tryptamine]

Just now, NotKyle said:

That's all Caleb Williams.  He sprayed an easy throw and got saved from an interception, then got confused and held the ball on third down.

It's not like anyone was open

[NotKyle]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

It's not like anyone was open

We're doing this again, I see.

It's the NFL.  On 1st and 2nd down, you wait for someone to be open or live for another play. On third down, you find someone in single coverage with leverage and you throw it.  Good QBs do it every single week, repeatedly.