Bears week 5 vs Panthers: Sunday noon on FOX

[minnesotacubsfan]

3 hours ago, NotKyle said:

He's 17th in i20%, 17th in touchback percentage.

I count 3 punts that should have been i20s but were left outside, including the shank against the Texans.

Help me understand that stat, does it account for coverage? 

[UMFan83]

19 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

Help me understand that stat, does it account for coverage? 

Here's a good stat:  EPA/punt.  It essentially accounts for how much expected win probability was added on a per punt basis (or maybe it's cumulative over the year, not sure).  Tory Taylor has a net positive EPA for the year but is 20th in the league so far. So I'm not just posting this to prop up Taylor @NotKyle

https://puntalytics.github.io/gallery.html

I was trying to find stats because I remember reading that Taylor's game against the Rams was extremely good in this metric, but can't find it.  Either way, I'm undecided on the elite vs not elite punter crap.  I definitely think there are plain old bad punters though (see a familiar friend who is second from the bottom on that chart) and he's not one of them.  Also possible that like any player there's an adjustment to the league as a rookie.  We'll see

 

Edited October 8, 2024 by UMFan83

[NotKyle]

26 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

Help me understand that stat, does it account for coverage? 

Inside 20? No, it is where the ball ends after the return.

He has had a couple this year that were definitely in range to land inside 20 but didn't, including the shank in Houston 

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Did anyone see the reversal of the TD in the Mia/NE game… thought it was interesting after the Njoku TD stood last year vs the Bears..

[BigbadB]

9 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Inside 20? No, it is where the ball ends after the return.

He has had a couple this year that were definitely in range to land inside 20 but didn't, including the shank in Houston 

I don't really understand the constant harping on the punter draft pick. Are we really going to be subjected to weekly complaints about him being elite/non elite? No one on this message board drafted him, and likely no one on this message board would have taken a punter with the 4th rounder. 

With that said, Caleb and Rome are making this a historic draft. If Booker can turn into what some people are calling the next Maxx Crosby, even better. If Amagadjie becomes a starting tackle in this league, or even a respectable swing tackle, this draft is even better. 

Let's get Jenkins, Bates, Borom and whoever else is missing time due to injuries on the OLine healthy for the hard work that will need to be done after the bye week, and stop focusing on whether the punter is top or bottom half of the league. There is way better stuff to talk about.

[Brian707]

Yeah I don't give a horsefeathers they drafted a punter with a fourth round pick. If they drafted a position player there instead he might have busted, who knows. It seems like crying over spilled milk.

Edited October 8, 2024 by Brian707

[BigSlick]

I think its reasonable to keep tabs on Taylor. It was unusual enough to spend a 4th rounder on a punter that it made national news and it would mean a misuse of resources if he wasn't any damn good. You can get a contributor of a position player in the 4th round. Given how much trouble we've had on the offensive line, it could have meant a replacement level offensive lineman there, something we could have used this year. 

I was skeptical but open to the pick in the first place. It wont be a huge tragedy if he's just a regular ass punter, but it would be a slight waste of resources. 

[BigbadB]

12 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I think its reasonable to keep tabs on Taylor. It was unusual enough to spend a 4th rounder on a punter that it made national news and it would mean a misuse of resources if he wasn't any damn good. You can get a contributor of a position player in the 4th round. Given how much trouble we've had on the offensive line, it could have meant a replacement level offensive lineman there, something we could have used this year. 

I was skeptical but open to the pick in the first place. It wont be a huge tragedy if he's just a regular ass punter, but it would be a slight waste of resources. 

It's definitely fine to keep tabs, but I don't see why every thread needs an "I told you so" moment to a bunch of people who pretty much agree with the poster in the first place.

[NotKyle]

I honestly don't care that much about the pick.  It's a fourth rounder. Sure, it's negative value to take a quarter out of your pocket and chuck it into the lake, but it's still just a quarter.

I'm just frustrated by the false narrative that has formed around him in Bears fandom.

If everyone here agrees, then what's the issue with the updates? Everyone agrees that Caleb Williams is awesome and we still post about that every thread.

[Soul]

10 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Inside 20? No, it is where the ball ends after the return.

He has had a couple this year that were definitely in range to land inside 20 but didn't, including the shank in Houston 

It’s difficult (probably impossible) for me to defend using a pick on him.  I’m surprised by the numbers because the highlights I saw from the Rams game he was having a great day. If he’s not ranking high in key categories then that speaks for itself.

[David]

2 hours ago, NotKyle said:

I honestly don't care that much about the pick.  It's a fourth rounder. Sure, it's negative value to take a quarter out of your pocket and chuck it into the lake, but it's still just a quarter.

I'm just frustrated by the false narrative that has formed around him in Bears fandom.

If everyone here agrees, then what's the issue with the updates? Everyone agrees that Caleb Williams is awesome and we still post about that every thread.

Rehashing positive things to no real end is fun.  Rehashing negative ones to no real end is not.

[NotKyle]

1 hour ago, David said:

Rehashing positive things to no real end is fun.  Rehashing negative ones to no real end is not.

Do I get to pick one type of post I don't find fun and get rid of it too, or is this a one-way deal?

[UMFan83]

3 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Do I get to pick one type of post I don't find fun and get rid of it too, or is this a one-way deal?

one-way deal

[NotKyle]

Here's the Caleb WIlliams mic'd up if you wanna hear him yell "let's go!" for 8 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv6F0M3_tcY

And here's the all-22 for all his passes and runs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EriJhLgH6IU

Every time I watch it, I get happier with it.  Maybe I'm glossing over how bad the Panthers defense is and getting overly optimistc, but this checks every single box I've ever wanted to see checked for a QB. In his fifth professional game.

He claims that a gust of wind took the first throw of the game, and that was literally my only major complaint, so I'll take him at his word.  And I put the sack on him, he hung on DJ Moore too long.

After that, it was just a clinic.   He wasn't perfect, no QB is perfect (he sold out Odunze on yet another wide open bomb) but it was elite NFL QB play.

1) He shows a complete and thorough control of the offense in pre-snap decisions.  He's dictating protections, calling audibles, identifying blitzes and defeating them with hot reads ("I know!" is such an iconic moment already in his career).  He looks perfectly comfortable choosing to take alternate execution options baked into plays.  I've now seem multiple instances of him pulling called runs to hit quick stops to his receivers because the DB was playing off.  I know some people want to do the "we'ved moved on from the last guy don't mention him" thing, but the contrast just leaps off film.  All the stuff that Bears fans insisted was impossible to expect from a QB, this QB does.  And suddenly our OC looks smart because of it.

2) His ball placement, timing and insanely quick release are giving his receivers a chance to catch the ball in stride, turn and make a move.  I thought against the Rams he was late on a lot of passes that were completions but could have been better, but I didn't see any of that this week.  Every single time I come up with a complaint against him one week, it looks better the next week.

3)  He made good throwaways.  At 5:53 of the all-22 video, the Bears try to run PA bootleg but the Panthers do a really good job sniffing it out, the DE and OLB both read it and are on him.  *No* hesitation, he lasers it out of bounds past Kmet, who was running a much longer route.  Saves himself a hit, and it could have easily been a -12 sack if he tried any of his bouncing around shenanigans.

4) He was seeing and attacking all sides of the field at all levels.  None of that "but can he throw left" nonsense we had with Trubisky.   He beat them left and he beat them right and he beat them middle. He took the underneath when they gave it to him, and when they gave him the deep he dropped a 40-yard touchdown dime on them.

I honestly feel like 300 yards and 2 TDs undersells how well he played.  If not for that ugly Moore drop, some touchdown vulturing and some garbage time, he could have had 350 and 4.

 

 

[BigbadB]

I can't blame him for only 2 TD's. Two of their TD's were short yardage. He had Rome wide open and didn't throw it on another, and if he hits Kmet on the other side of his body, that one might have been a TD. 

But, I also feel like they stopped going for the throat about the middle of the 3rd quarter. You could tell they still wanted to run plays and they did keep passing, but they seemed more like TOP pass plays. Control the rock and run out the clock type plays. If Carolina was keeping up on the scoreboard, I think Caleb could have cleared 400 yards easily in that game. Carolina had no answers for him. He was hitting everyone.

[Rex Buckingham]

7 hours ago, NotKyle said:

3)  He made good throwaways.  At 5:53 of the all-22 video, the Bears try to run PA bootleg but the Panthers do a really good job sniffing it out, the DE and OLB both read it and are on him.  *No* hesitation, he lasers it out of bounds past Kmet, who was running a much longer route.  Saves himself a hit, and it could have easily been a -12 sack if he tried any of his bouncing around shenanigans.
 

And the idiot announcers called it a "miscommunication" when it was clearly a throwaway 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

If he leads Kmet though, that's like a 60 yard play

[gflore34]

19 hours ago, NotKyle said:

Here's the Caleb WIlliams mic'd up if you wanna hear him yell "let's go!" for 8 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv6F0M3_tcY

And here's the all-22 for all his passes and runs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EriJhLgH6IU

Every time I watch it, I get happier with it.  Maybe I'm glossing over how bad the Panthers defense is and getting overly optimistc, but this checks every single box I've ever wanted to see checked for a QB. In his fifth professional game.

He claims that a gust of wind took the first throw of the game, and that was literally my only major complaint, so I'll take him at his word.  And I put the sack on him, he hung on DJ Moore too long.

After that, it was just a clinic.   He wasn't perfect, no QB is perfect (he sold out Odunze on yet another wide open bomb) but it was elite NFL QB play.

1) He shows a complete and thorough control of the offense in pre-snap decisions.  He's dictating protections, calling audibles, identifying blitzes and defeating them with hot reads ("I know!" is such an iconic moment already in his career).  He looks perfectly comfortable choosing to take alternate execution options baked into plays.  I've now seem multiple instances of him pulling called runs to hit quick stops to his receivers because the DB was playing off.  I know some people want to do the "we'ved moved on from the last guy don't mention him" thing, but the contrast just leaps off film.  All the stuff that Bears fans insisted was impossible to expect from a QB, this QB does.  And suddenly our OC looks smart because of it.

2) His ball placement, timing and insanely quick release are giving his receivers a chance to catch the ball in stride, turn and make a move.  I thought against the Rams he was late on a lot of passes that were completions but could have been better, but I didn't see any of that this week.  Every single time I come up with a complaint against him one week, it looks better the next week.

3)  He made good throwaways.  At 5:53 of the all-22 video, the Bears try to run PA bootleg but the Panthers do a really good job sniffing it out, the DE and OLB both read it and are on him.  *No* hesitation, he lasers it out of bounds past Kmet, who was running a much longer route.  Saves himself a hit, and it could have easily been a -12 sack if he tried any of his bouncing around shenanigans.

4) He was seeing and attacking all sides of the field at all levels.  None of that "but can he throw left" nonsense we had with Trubisky.   He beat them left and he beat them right and he beat them middle. He took the underneath when they gave it to him, and when they gave him the deep he dropped a 40-yard touchdown dime on them.

I honestly feel like 300 yards and 2 TDs undersells how well he played.  If not for that ugly Moore drop, some touchdown vulturing and some garbage time, he could have had 350 and 4.

 

 

Regardless of what level of defense they're playing against we're seeing things of Williams that an NFL QB needs to be successful.  It's on film, undeniable, all there, it's really encouraging and about horsefeathers time!!!

[NotKyle]

25 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Regardless of what level of defense they're playing against we're seeing things of Williams that an NFL QB needs to be successful.  It's on film, undeniable, all there, it's really encouraging and about horsefeathers time!!!

Right now, my only doubt that he's a franchise qb is in the "well, you can never be sure of anything, maybe we are misreading the whole situation" margins.

Because he sure looks like a franchise qb. He's done more adjusting to the NFL in five weeks than fields, Trubisky, McNown or Grossman did in two years.

He has a long way to go before he shows where he is in the franchise qb spectrum, is he more Murray or Mahomes, but I can't see him being a bust