Alcántara, Shaw and Triantos Promoted to AAA: Cam Smith to Myrtle Beach

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, JBears79 said:

I never realized how solid of a player Mike Cameron was in his career. Lots of great season from age 25-36. I'd take that outcome from Alcantara. I'm greedy and am praying for the 99th percentile outcome though. 

Alcantara turning into Mike Cameron is like a 99.5th percentile outcome. 

[craig]

6 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Worth pointing out the Alcantara's slugging is 17th in the Southern League (out of 49 qualified), which obviously isn't elite (you'd want him putting up a higher number than Triantos, as an example), ...

I wonder if that isn't a bit misrepresentative?   Aren't the "qualified" kinda those who haven't been promoted soon enough to drop off the "qualified" list?  In other words, might there not be another dozen guys (like Moises) who were slugging better than Kevin, better enough to get promoted, so they've dropped off the qualified list?   

Edited August 6, 2024 by craig

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, craig said:

I wonder if that isn't a bit misrepresentative?   Aren't the "qualified" kinda those who haven't been promoted soon enough to drop off the "qualified" list?  In other words, might there not be another dozen guys (like Moises) who were slugging better than Kevin, better enough to get promoted, so they've dropped off the qualified list?   

Yeah the actual ranking itself is probably kinda worthless. Definitely see your point, though you could argue that there's a bevy of guys who haven't been good enough to play consistently enough to be qualified, so you could bump him down the rankings and also keep his percentile probably pretty consistent? I think my larger point was just how depressed the offensive environment is across that league. Still would want more, but holding out hope for some slugging improvement in AAA, even if it comes with decreased avg/obp. 

[JBears79]

14 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Alcantara turning into Mike Cameron is like a 99.5th percentile outcome. 

i want the 99.9 outcome

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

i want the 99.9 outcome

I mean Cameron is in the hall of very good. At 50.6 fWAR he's like 10 fWAR from being a hall of famer. I get hoping for good outcomes, but asking for a HoFer is a bit much.

[CubinNY]

26 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean Cameron is in the hall of very good. At 50.6 fWAR he's like 10 fWAR from being a hall of famer. I get hoping for good outcomes, but asking for a HoFer is a bit much.

I'd settle for a Brewers-era Richie Sexton

[gflore34]

44 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'd settle for a Brewers-era Richie Sexton

Or a Cubs prospect who can actually hit.

[JBears79]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean Cameron is in the hall of very good. At 50.6 fWAR he's like 10 fWAR from being a hall of famer. I get hoping for good outcomes, but asking for a HoFer is a bit much.

I know. That comment was meant to be more tongue in cheek haha. Alcantara out of all our prospects is the guy I can see reaching that HoF level, if he hits his ceiling. The tools are all there for a superstar if everything comes together, a Mike Cameron esque player would be a top tier outcome. 

 

One name I was thinking about that came to mind the other day was Alex Rios. I'd like to hope Alcantara would have more power than him in the long run but we know that the chances of players hitting their ceiling is a long shot considering how tough the sport is.

[Post Count Padder]

Alcantara started the season like 1-for-35 so if you take that out, he's OPSing well over .800 on the season. He made adjustments and kept up the pace. Just what you want to see. 

Shaw has absolutely raked recently. I'm glad all three are getting long overdue call ups. I also do really wanna see how Triantos handles AAA pitching. I'm not the highest on him so I'm curious how he does. 

Related to the above, Mike Cameron was low-key one of the best centerfielders of his time. He switched teams a lot and only went to one ASG so he didn't get enough credit but he was very solid. A definitely Hall of Very Good inductee. I'd be pleased if Alcantara ends up like that.

[sneakypower]

18 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Alcantara turning into Mike Cameron is like a 99.5th percentile outcome. 

gonna strenuously disagree with this; Cameron's prime was 107 wRC+ which is really just Austin Hays/Mike Yastrzemski territory

i added the implied qualifier that Cameron was a wizard defensively, and you have to believe Alcantara's upside offensively is better than like, Ramón Urías/ Luis Urías offensively or he's not even really a prospect worth following very closely

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

gonna strenuously disagree with this; Cameron's prime was 107 wRC+ which is really just Austin Hays/Mike Yastrzemski territory

i added the implied qualifier that Cameron was a wizard defensively, and you have to believe Alcantara's upside offensively is better than like, Ramón Urías/ Luis Urías offensively or he's not even really a prospect worth following very closely

I've got 112 from 1999 to 2009, guessing we're off on a year or so on one or both ends. He was also the 8th best baserunner during that time (246 SBs to use a basic stat). Alcantara has 22 SBs in 171 games since the beginning of last year, at a lower success rate than Cameron, so don't think we're getting anywhere close there. Cameron's K and BB rates during that peak are both better than what Alcantara is doing in AA right now, his ISO was higher than anything Alcantara has put up above the Complex League (excepting 20 PAs in AA last year). 

I think it's pretty unlikely Alcantara puts up numbers at the plate similar to Cameron. I think it's very, very unlikely his overall offensive profile ever gets to a Cameron level. I think it's a magnitude more unlikely that he eclipses Cameron in total value. Aware you said offensive value, and yes, I know, 0/35. But they still count. 

And that's not to cast him off. If he turns into Brandon Marsh, to pick a name on the CF leaderboard, that's a cost controlled salary for essentially the same production since the beginning of last year we've paid Cody Bellinger $45m for (while on the hook for another $50+m).

[sneakypower]

i think i selected 24-32 ages and yeah i only ever made the comparison on a purely offensive basis

but i really don't think Keith Law has him consistently around top-25 prospect in the game on the dreams he can be a weak-side platoon OF

Edited August 6, 2024 by sneakypower

[JBears79]

5 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i think i selected 24-32 ages and yeah i only ever made the comparison on a purely offensive basis

but i really don't think Keith Law has him consistently around top-25 prospect in the game on the dreams he can be a weak-side platoon OF

Law is definitely the biggest believer in his upside I think but he tends to favor ceiling over floor in his rankings. In his midseason update he had him at 27.

"Alcántara has held steady this year as a 21-year-old (by his seasonal age) in Double A, keeping his strikeout rate low for a 6-6 hitter and making hard contact without a ton of game power yet, with plenty of projection remaining on his frame. He just turned 22 last week, so he’s right on track with college juniors drafted last year, a large number of whom are in Double A as well, but offers a wider range of potential outcomes with first-round upside if he keeps the contact rate steady as he fills out." 

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i think i selected 24-32 ages and yeah i only ever made the comparison on a purely offensive basis

but i really don't think Keith Law has him consistently around top-25 prospect in the game on the dreams he can be a weak-side platoon OF

Yeah full disclosure I started my response here with a position that more guys on that list bust than one would think and it's just survivorship bias, but I went through his 2020 list and there were a fair amount of present day quality players in the top 40 of the list.

I think my initial response was based on overall value and I think tinged by, somehow, a totally separate Mike Cameron discussion we had around here back in spring training (in comparison to PCA and that being a 'disappointing' outcome). I think Alcantara has the skill set to put up hitting numbers a la Cameron. The ability and health luck to do it for a decade plus is a different story. 

And, to close the book on my weird points, I think there's a lot of value in producing Brandon Marshs and our system has been very bad at it. They should never headline your team, but paying them $750k instead of Happ $18m to give you 1 more win a year makes it a lot easier to go get the Sotos of the world. 

[Bertz]

So it's not the headline here obviously but Franklin's gotta join them too right?  Or does he have to stick it out at Tenn to make it that much less likely he'd get picked in the Rule 5 and save a 40 man spot?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brett Bateman to AA

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Edgar Àlvarez was promoted to South Bend:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Tim]

All I ask is that Cam outproduces Shaw's 2023

[JBears79]

3 hours ago, Tim said:

All I ask is that Cam outproduces Shaw's 2023

Is that really too much to ask? Personally I'd prefer 2023 Jackson Holliday numbers

[craig]

21 hours ago, Bertz said:

So it's not the headline here obviously but Franklin's gotta join them too right?  Or does he have to stick it out at Tenn to make it that much less likely he'd get picked in the Rule 5 and save a 40 man spot?

Are you guys pretty strong Franklin fans?  On another board I've seen his name suggested as a 40-man possibility, maybe AZ Phil too.  And I know earlier in the summer he had a good month. 

Don't think I'd consider giving him a 40-man spot, myself.  

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Are you guys pretty strong Franklin fans?  On another board I've seen his name suggested as a 40-man possibility, maybe AZ Phil too.  And I know earlier in the summer he had a good month. 

Don't think I'd consider giving him a 40-man spot, myself.  

He looks like a pretty ideal 4th outfielder/shortside platoon mate to me.  If there is reason to be bearish on his defense in CF or anything like that I'm open to moving him down, but IMO he reads very much as a Reed Johnson/Kevin Pillar type.  The Cubs 40 man is not nearly tight enough for me to have appetite to just let him walk away for nothing, especially since with how left-handed our starting OF looks to be for the foreseeable future.