Alcántara, Shaw and Triantos Promoted to AAA: Cam Smith to Myrtle Beach

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[muntjack]

Good lord that squad is loaded. 

[CubinNY]

Just saw that, you are quick! Big things on the way. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

About damn time

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Sounds like we’ll be hearing a few more big promotions throughout the system tomorrow/Tuesday.

[mfcubs22]

Has a team ever started 6 top 100 prospects in the same game before?

[CUBDOM4life]

Might have to take a ride out to Des Moines one of these weekends 

[JBears79]

Bout time. Get Alcantara's struggles at a new level starting early. If I recall though he played really well at the promotion to AA last year. He seems to struggle a lot in cold weather. 

 

Next years squad is so stacked at Iowa. I'm assuming Cassie gets a cup of coffee this year since we have to add him to the 40 man but having a lineup with Cassie, KA, Shaw, Triantos, and MB is going be fun

[Irrelevant Dude]

6 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Next years squad is so stacked at Iowa. I'm assuming Cassie gets a cup of coffee this year since we have to add him to the 40 man

Ideally that would be the case, but the Cubs' outfield picture is so crowded that I'm not sure there will really be much of an opportunity for anyone else unless there is another injury.  Otherwise, how much is really to be gained by getting Caissie a few at bats a week similar to what we saw with Canario?

[JBears79]

29 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Ideally that would be the case, but the Cubs' outfield picture is so crowded that I'm not sure there will really be much of an opportunity for anyone else unless there is another injury.  Otherwise, how much is really to be gained by getting Caissie a few at bats a week similar to what we saw with Canario?

you are probably right but I like to believe there is some merit psychologically in a reward for the work of a well played season from an up and coming prospect. I do see your point though. The fact that they have to add him is why I think it happens. I think hes first man up as we get later into the season if an injury occurs.

[craig]

I think he gets a reward/courtesy callup. 

• Imagine over-under on big-league AB is 10: I'll take the under!
• Don't think they'll play him hardly at all, or create enough sample size to make any conclusions.  Last year PCA got 19 hitless PA; and we said "draw no conclusions, too small a sample."  Caissie will get less, and likewise be "draw no conclusions." 
• Variable number of AB's might depend on injuries; on when they get eliminated; and on how many of their games are against eliminated teams versus teams still fighting for playoffs.  
• I think they see off-field advantages in giving a guy a courtesy callup, even if they don't play him.  He gets to experience the big-league team and clubhouse.  He gets to hang with the major-leaguers.  He gets to work with the coaches and get to know them a little better.  He gets to see the preparation and professionalism that big-leaguers have.  Hoyer is huge on soft stuff like that, so I think he'll give Caissie that.  

 

[craig]

What do you guys see in terms of power potential for Alcantara?  It's August and he's got only 9 HR.  He's been a predominantly singles hitter this season, 57 singles, 9-0-13 HR-3B-2B.  .409 slug.   

 

[sneakypower]

his numbers since basically the first week of the season look a lot like Mike Cameron and while he won't reach those lofty heights with his glove that's probably a good ballpark upside stylistically in my mind

[craig]

Thanks.  Cameron is a fun wannabe dream-the-moon dream comp.  

That's kinda where the HR-power is kinda my question?  Cameron was an asset offensive player, in part because he hit ≥20 HR's most seasons.  Off major-league pitchers.  Singles-hitter Kevin is poking along at 9 HR.  Cameron had 8 seasons with ≥20 HR, including a 30-HR season, and two more at 18 or 19.   Cameron had an 11-straight seasons with composite slugging north of .450, and never below .431 during those 11 seasons, with 50-70 XBH during each of those 11 seasons.  Singles-hitter Kevin has racked up 22 XBH, and it's August.  

I wonder what the metrics show for Kevin in CF?  Like, when we trade him, will somebody view him as a long-term defensive-asset CF?  Or might he be a little more like Jason Heyward, he'll be great defender in RF, but in center maybe kinda big-league average, or worse?  A lot of REALLY good defensive CF in the majors, so being average relative to that crowd is really difficult, and being asset relative to that crowd is really difficult.  

I guess I kinda wonder whether perhaps a nice comp for Kevin might be Cubs-era Jason Heyward, maybe through his Covid season?  it's hard to get the last two seasons of Heyward out of my memory, so perhaps that's a bad comp because I can't get away from his last auto-out season.  But during the 2017-18-19-20 four seasons, he had OPS .715-.731-.772-..848 (the last was the short Covid summer.). >2-WAR guy during those seasons? Had 11 and 21-HR seasons in there, which might compare to Kevin's 9HR-in-august pace.  Slugged around .420 over those four seasons, a little better than singles-hitter-Kevin is doing.  Maybe Alcantara like Heyward could be a gold-glove in RF?  

But yeah, adding some HR-production and getting more doubles and triples would really help Kevin in the future.  Would be fun to have him improve.

Edited August 5, 2024 by craig

[CubinNY]

20 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks.  Cameron is a fun wannabe dream-the-moon dream comp.  

That's kinda where the HR-power is kinda my question?  Cameron was an asset offensive player, in part because he hit ≥20 HR's most seasons.  Off major-league pitchers.  Singles-hitter Kevin is poking along at 9 HR.  Cameron had 8 seasons with ≥20 HR, including a 30-HR season, and two more at 18 or 19.   Cameron had an 11-straight seasons with composite slugging north of .450, and never below .431 during those 11 seasons, with 50-70 XBH during each of those 11 seasons.  Singles-hitter Kevin has racked up 22 XBH, and it's August.  

I wonder what the metrics show for Kevin in CF?  Like, when we trade him, will somebody view him as a long-term defensive-asset CF?  Or might he be a little more like Jason Heyward, he'll be great defender in RF, but in center maybe kinda big-league average, or worse?  A lot of REALLY good defensive CF in the majors, so being average relative to that crowd is really difficult, and being asset relative to that crowd is really difficult.  

I guess I kinda wonder whether perhaps a nice comp for Kevin might be Cubs-era Jason Heyward, maybe through his Covid season?  it's hard to get the last two seasons of Heyward out of my memory, so perhaps that's a bad comp because I can't get away from his last auto-out season.  But during the 2017-18-19-20 four seasons, he had OPS .715-.731-.772-..848 (the last was the short Covid summer.). >2-WAR guy during those seasons? Had 11 and 21-HR seasons in there, which might compare to Kevin's 9HR-in-august pace.  Slugged around .420 over those four seasons, a little better than singles-hitter-Kevin is doing.  Maybe Alcantara like Heyward could be a gold-glove in RF?  

But yeah, adding some HR-production and getting more doubles and triples would really help Kevin in the future.  Would be fun to have him improve.

I would not bet that he will have to move off of CF. He may as a Cub if he makes it, but he's shown + glove skills. He may need more time to refine his game than the Cubs can give him and get traded, but he has the highest ceiling (I hate that term) among position player prospects. 

[Tryptamine]

Ignoring his first disastrous 7 games, Alcantara has 9 HR in 296 PAs. A healthy player in MLB is going to get roughly 700 PAs in a season. That puts Alcantara at 21HR/700PA pace, so he's already at Cameron level HR power. Also, remember he's hitting in one of the most excessively offensive inhibited environments in the minor leagues. There's a reason that Matt Shaw had the 5th highest OPS of all players with 100+ PAs with an .841. What makes Alcantara exciting is there's more in the tank. He could be a legit 30+ HR guy. Also, as far as everything I've read, he's a no doubt CFer.

[mul21]

I think there are 2 pretty big variables that make this a pretty difficult question to answer.  The first is how suppressed offense has been in the SL this year and the second is trying to determine if he can really access the power those long levers can afford if used properly.  Some guys like Judge figure it out, others end up like Heyward where you never know what you're going to get. Maybe CF capable Ian Happ is what you end up with?

[We Got The Whole 9]

40 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks.  Cameron is a fun wannabe dream-the-moon dream comp.  

That's kinda where the HR-power is kinda my question?  Cameron was an asset offensive player, in part because he hit ≥20 HR's most seasons.  Off major-league pitchers.  Singles-hitter Kevin is poking along at 9 HR.  Cameron had 8 seasons with ≥20 HR, including a 30-HR season, and two more at 18 or 19.   Cameron had an 11-straight seasons with composite slugging north of .450, and never below .431 during those 11 seasons, with 50-70 XBH during each of those 11 seasons.  Singles-hitter Kevin has racked up 22 XBH, and it's August.  

I wonder what the metrics show for Kevin in CF?  Like, when we trade him, will somebody view him as a long-term defensive-asset CF?  Or might he be a little more like Jason Heyward, he'll be great defender in RF, but in center maybe kinda big-league average, or worse?  A lot of REALLY good defensive CF in the majors, so being average relative to that crowd is really difficult, and being asset relative to that crowd is really difficult.  

I guess I kinda wonder whether perhaps a nice comp for Kevin might be Cubs-era Jason Heyward, maybe through his Covid season?  it's hard to get the last two seasons of Heyward out of my memory, so perhaps that's a bad comp because I can't get away from his last auto-out season.  But during the 2017-18-19-20 four seasons, he had OPS .715-.731-.772-..848 (the last was the short Covid summer.). >2-WAR guy during those seasons? Had 11 and 21-HR seasons in there, which might compare to Kevin's 9HR-in-august pace.  Slugged around .420 over those four seasons, a little better than singles-hitter-Kevin is doing.  Maybe Alcantara like Heyward could be a gold-glove in RF?  

But yeah, adding some HR-production and getting more doubles and triples would really help Kevin in the future.  Would be fun to have him improve.

Doesn't it make sense to compare their numbers as minor leaguers? 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camermi01.shtml

 

Cameron didn't hit for a lot of power as a prospect. Numbers-wise it's a much better comp than I was expecting.

 

At 22 in AA, Cameron hit 249/355/429. He got a cup of coffee. Then he exploded the next year as a 23 year old. 

Edited August 5, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[Tryptamine]

Man, I hadn't really thought about it, but a PCA CF and Alcantara RF would be a monster defensively.

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Man, I hadn't really thought about it, but a PCA CF and Alcantara RF would be a monster defensively.

As long as they don't call off every infielder on every pop up?

[Outshined_One]

Also worth noting regarding Alcantara's HR numbers is how the baseball was doctored in the Southern League (again) for a good chunk of the first half.

[JBears79]

Alcantara has superstar written all over him if he hits his ceiling. He's so incredibly raw though. Another offseason in the weight room and I think were gonna really see the power numbers explode.

[craig]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Doesn't it make sense to compare their numbers as minor leaguers? 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camermi01.shtml

Cameron didn't hit for a lot of power as a prospect. Numbers-wise it's a much better comp than I was expecting.

At 22 in AA, Cameron hit 249/355/429. He got a cup of coffee. Then he exploded the next year as a 23 year old. 

Kinda yes, kinda no.  Yes:  Cameron is a great example of how sometimes a prospect explodes and turns into a really good big-league hitter.  That's the hope, that Alcantara will be one of those rare exceptions of a guy who eventually explodes, and becomes better at hitting big-league pitching than minor-league pitching.  It's possible.  Sammy Sosa's another type example.  10HR for Cubs age 22; age 24 he hit 33; age 29 up to 66.  At age 19 in minors, he hit only 9 in >500AB; and at age 20 he hit only 8.  So yeah, sometimes guys hit lots more in majors than minors.  

Kinda no:  For every Cameron or Sosa who hits and slugs way better in majors than in AA, aren't there about 99 others who hit less?  Camerons happen, so I hope the same for Kevin.  I hope he's the next Cameron, and maybe the next Sosa.  But I kinda feel like that kind of transformation is relatively rare and rather improbable.  

Plus we're the Cubs.  Things like that don't happen for our hitters.  

[squally1313]

Worth pointing out the Alcantara's slugging is 17th in the Southern League (out of 49 qualified), which obviously isn't elite (you'd want him putting up a higher number than Triantos, as an example), but more so just shows the overall environment. Feel like I've seen discussions of his exit velocities being pretty elite, which is nice, but we're also looking at a below average BB/K ratio. 

[JBears79]

3 hours ago, craig said:

Kinda yes, kinda no.  Yes:  Cameron is a great example of how sometimes a prospect explodes and turns into a really good big-league hitter.  That's the hope, that Alcantara will be one of those rare exceptions of a guy who eventually explodes, and becomes better at hitting big-league pitching than minor-league pitching.  It's possible.  Sammy Sosa's another type example.  10HR for Cubs age 22; age 24 he hit 33; age 29 up to 66.  At age 19 in minors, he hit only 9 in >500AB; and at age 20 he hit only 8.  So yeah, sometimes guys hit lots more in majors than minors.  

Kinda no:  For every Cameron or Sosa who hits and slugs way better in majors than in AA, aren't there about 99 others who hit less?  Camerons happen, so I hope the same for Kevin.  I hope he's the next Cameron, and maybe the next Sosa.  But I kinda feel like that kind of transformation is relatively rare and rather improbable.  

Plus we're the Cubs.  Things like that don't happen for our hitters.  

I never realized how solid of a player Mike Cameron was in his career. Lots of great season from age 25-36. I'd take that outcome from Alcantara. I'm greedy and am praying for the 99th percentile outcome though.