Brewers (Myers) vs Cubs (Assad): 7/22/24, 7:10pm

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't see it as nuking the roster when one guy, who was a top 30 prospect, is already in the big leagues putting up a 156 wRC+ and the other is a top 20 prospect in AAA putting up a 143 wRC+ and who is MLB ready right now. Yeah you lose the certainty of Steele, but you gain two potential all-star level bats, one of which comes at a position of extreme need. 

I think you're misunderstanding me, I'm saying if you trade Steele you need to nuke the roster.

I'm not going to be a luddite and think that trading Steele can't be a net positive, but I do think it's extremely unlikely to be a positive on a 2025-26 timeline, and if you're making a team already selling at the deadline worse in 2025-26, then you need to lean in and finish the job by either trading or extending several more guys.  

[BKHoo]

Right I don’t think you even consider trading Steele unless you are talking about tearing it all down for a few years. 

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't see it as nuking the roster when one guy, who was a top 30 prospect, is already in the big leagues putting up a 156 wRC+ and the other is a top 20 prospect in AAA putting up a 143 wRC+ and who is MLB ready right now. Yeah you lose the certainty of Steele, but you gain two potential all-star level bats, one of which comes at a position of extreme need. 

We're literally a year removed from calling up a bad defensive third baseman from AAA with a 180 wRC in 134 PAs and now we're going to trade our best pitcher, with years of control, to replace him with another no-glove third baseman and a corner outfielder/DH guy with a Baseball Savant page full of blue bars despite the sparkling wRC. 

That's not to say that those guys will or would suck, but trading the guy who almost certainly does not suck in the least because of 'downside' or just so we can say that We Were Sellers, is a very weird Shiny New Toy'Grass is Always Greener situation.

[Rob]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think you're misunderstanding me, I'm saying if you trade Steele you need to nuke the roster.

I'm not going to be a luddite and think that trading Steele can't be a net positive, but I do think it's extremely unlikely to be a positive on a 2025-26 timeline, and if you're making a team already selling at the deadline worse in 2025-26, then you need to lean in and finish the job by either trading or extending several more guys.  

Steele is worth what, 5 wins on this roster? Maybe?

It's not that far out of the realm of possibility that in exchange for Steele we could get a 3 WAR and 2 WAR guy in positions where we're currently running out complete trash. His production is important, but it's not utterly irreplaceable.

There's risk, yes. But I think selling it as a necessity to nuke the roster is a bit melodramatic.

[Backtobanks]

18 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Right I don’t think you even consider trading Steele unless you are talking about tearing it all down for a few years. 

Tearing what down?  A mediocre team that doesn't want to spend more money or trade prospects to be competitive.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Rob said:

Steele is worth what, 5 wins on this roster? Maybe?

It's not that far out of the realm of possibility that in exchange for Steele we could get a 3 WAR and 2 WAR guy in positions where we're currently running out complete trash. His production is important, but it's not utterly irreplaceable.

There's risk, yes. But I think selling it as a necessity to nuke the roster is a bit melodramatic.

5 wins from one player >> 5 wins from 2 players. If anything, the current iteration of this roster (2.5 win players for daysss) highlights the importance of this. 

And I think it's pretty fair to question whether a team making a playoff push would have two guys they realistically believed were 2 months of baseball away from being 3 and 2 win major league players but were choosing not to use them in said playoff push. Even the Orioles, who everyone will tell you has juggernauts all over the field blocking elite prospects, have given substantial PAs to Mountcastle (374, 0.9fWAR), Ramon Urias (166 PAs, 0.4 fWAR), Mullins (300 PAs, 0.3 fWAR), and Austin Hays (169 PAs, 0.1 fWAR).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Rob said:

Steele is worth what, 5 wins on this roster? Maybe?

It's not that far out of the realm of possibility that in exchange for Steele we could get a 3 WAR and 2 WAR guy in positions where we're currently running out complete trash. His production is important, but it's not utterly irreplaceable.

There's risk, yes. But I think selling it as a necessity to nuke the roster is a bit melodramatic.

It is that far out of the realm of possibility for 2025, probably 2026 too.  I mean we're talking about Kjerstad(ZiPS 110 wRC+ projection as a COF/DH) and Mayo(ZiPS 106 wRC+ as a 3B/1B/DH) as the headliners in the 'well the Orioles won't do it but if they did then yeah it's on' mold.  In the offseason you can at least squint and come up with something since teams might be willing to trade players who have more MLB certainty, but not at the deadline.  Or we could flip this on its head and just trade from our own list of high minors Top 100 hitters or graduate them.  We have five of them already!

[LBiittner]

I for one hate the idea of trading a very good starting pitcher for a positional player. I keep looking at the darvish deal. It'll be probably 5 years since the trade and we MIGHT see a player from the move. MIGHT see. Too much water under the bridge

10 minutes ago, Rob said:

Steele is worth what, 5 wins on this roster? Maybe?

It's not that far out of the realm of possibility that in exchange for Steele we could get a 3 WAR and 2 WAR guy in positions where we're currently running out complete trash. His production is important, but it's not utterly irreplaceable.

There's risk, yes. But I think selling it as a necessity to nuke the roster is a bit melodramatic.

 

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

He also said they could consider trading Steele if a crazy offer comes in. Also that he doesnt sense any urgency for them to duck under the luxury tax.

It sure would be nice to hope to contend next year instead of 2028.

[KCCub]

 

 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Steele is 7th in MLB in ERA since the start of 2022, he doesn't need more upside and his current level can decline and still be very valuable to a competitive Cubs team.  Trading Steele would be for players with much larger downside risk as well.

I continue to not understand so many people's thinking about how to approach the deadline.

Steele is a legit ace and one of the best SP in baseball, and a bulldog competitor to boot.  Trading him in his prime with 3 seasons to go before FA making pre-FA money would be one of the dumbest moves in franchise history.

[Bertz]

47 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Or we could flip this on its head and just trade from our own list of high minors Top 100 hitters or graduate them.  We have five of them already!

This is what I don't get about the "moar prospects!" stuff is that we have a wave of guys pretty imminent already.  Maybe you're bored of them because you've been following them for 3 years but there's not really much reason to think e.g. Heston Kjerstad has significantly more of a chance at being a superstar than Owen Caissie.

And the few guys who are legitimately in a class above anyone we have just do not get made available.  Mayyyybbbbee the O's would do Basallo for Steele?  But other than that it's guys who are not going anywhere.

[Stratos]

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Apparently Jed was supposed to meet the media almost an hour ago and still hasn't started speaking. 

Could be nothing, or maybe something's afoot?

[Stratos]

Brewers have 1 player with an OPS over .782.  A ton of SBs though

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not wildly against the idea of trading Steele because 

1) 29 is ancient 

2) I hate pitchers 

 

But I better get an insane haul of cost-controlled, potentially elite position players 

[LBiittner]

13 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Apparently Jed was supposed to meet the media almost an hour ago and still hasn't started speaking. 

Could be nothing, or maybe something's afoot?

Diarrhea 

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Diarrhea 

That would be the most aggressive move he's made all year.

[JD94]

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

Steele is a legit ace and one of the best SP in baseball, and a bulldog competitor to boot.  Trading him in his prime with 3 seasons to go before FA making pre-FA money would be one of the dumbest moves in franchise history.

People love the concept of selling high until the chance presents itself.  

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

People love the concept of selling high until the chance presents itself.  

The Cubs aren't rebuilding. In order for the Cubs to be thinking about trading Steele they need MLB returns. That doesn't exist at the deadline. Buyers are contenders. Contenders aren't deducting from their MLB roster, at least not anyone valuable enough to consider trading Steele for.

Edited July 22, 2024 by Cuzi

[chibears55]

Trading Steele now would pretty much mean they're giving up on 2025 too, and I just don't see them doing that unless the return brings from the trading team two of their top 5 prospects.

Cubs aren't far off from actually  competing next year IF hoyer can make good moves, they have Steele and Imanaga with a couple of good young arms for the rotation and bullpen. 

They just need to add another reliable SP, a closer, and add a couple of solid bats to the lineup. 

[731.4life]

Good strikeout to Assad to begin the game. #SayNoToRoboUmps

[JHBulls]

At least Tobias Myers doesn’t suck on the road, so it will feel less irritating when he holds the Cubs scoreless through 6 innings. 

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Trading Steele now would pretty much mean they're giving up on 2025 too, and I just don't see them doing that unless the return brings from the trading team two of their top 5 prospects.

Cubs aren't far off from actually  competing next year IF hoyer can make good moves, they have Steele and Imanaga with a couple of good young arms for the rotation and bullpen. 

They just need to add another reliable SP, a closer, and add a couple of solid bats to the lineup. 

I’m honestly not sure they need even as much as you suggest. I’m not sure they need another starter or a closer. I agree with you that they are not that far off. Couple of good trades using some minor league talent, and spend money for anything they can’t get in a trade. I wouldn’t trade Steele, Taillon, Happ or Hoerner.

Edited July 23, 2024 by Rcal10