Cubs (Steele) vs Brewers (Gasser): 5/27/24, 3:10pm

[CubinNY]

Game thread is is prone to overreaction and hyperbole. 
 

This is the first time the team has been relatively healthy in a long time. They may need a few weeks to get the train moving. 
 

If in two weeks they are still playing at a sub .300 win pace, it’s time to move your chess pieces and make adjustments to the completion of this team. 

Edited May 28, 2024 by CubinNY

[Brock Beauchamp]

You can take today's game thread, @Southpaw19

[BigbadB]

It may be awhile before I watch again. I tuned in while the Cubs were batting in the 7th and couldn't get past one hitter before moving on. They will be fun to watch again, but not right now. It makes me sad to see great pitching result in a loss or a no decision. Some of these starters deserve much better.

[Wilson A2000]

Bote is hitting well in AAA. Why can he not get the call up? They don’t want his salary to count against the luxury tax?

[mul21]

21 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Bote is hitting well in AAA. Why can he not get the call up? They don’t want his salary to count against the luxury tax?

He's not on the 40 man is probably the biggest reason.  Not to mention he doesn't have anywhere to play.  You're not going to see Morel or Nico get benched.

[Wilson A2000]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

He's not on the 40 man is probably the biggest reason.  Not to mention he doesn't have anywhere to play.  You're not going to see Morel or Nico get benched.

Whatever Madrigal is doing, Bote would have to be able to do it better

[chibears55]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

He's not on the 40 man is probably the biggest reason.  Not to mention he doesn't have anywhere to play.  You're not going to see Morel or Nico get benched.

Simple solution,  get rid of Madrigal, there your 40 man spot and he can be your bench guy.

[sneakypower]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

It may be awhile before I watch again. I tuned in while the Cubs were batting in the 7th and couldn't get past one hitter before moving on. They will be fun to watch again, but not right now. It makes me sad to see great pitching result in a loss or a no decision. Some of these starters deserve much better.

if i'm to be quite honest Jed Hoyer baseball is almost definitionally un-fun to watch – the clear preference for good starting pitching and strong defense; in contrast to that, a complete apathetic disinterest in running out a good lineup, and the excessively frugal piecemeal approach to bullpen construction that typically follows the same script: low scoring games with late inning blowups to decide the game

there'll be a few bad starters that they'll string some hits together against, so that's about the best it gets for fireworks

[sneakypower]

Just now, sneakypower said:

in contrast to that, a complete apathetic disinterest in running out a good lineup

and i know that this might sound incendiary, but i really do maintain this point

he's strongly disfavored offense at nearly every turn: Andrelton Simmons over Correa/anyone else; Yan Gomes over Willson; Madrigal over (fill in the blank); Swanson over 3 far superior bats; total apathy in the Harper, Seager, Soto offseason talks

running to agents for Sogard, Hosmer, Barnhart, Descalso with his tongue hanging out; he's just not somebody that values good offense which i personally can't stand from a watchability angle

[imb]

17 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

and i know that this might sound incendiary, but i really do maintain this point

he's strongly disfavored offense at nearly every turn: Andrelton Simmons over Correa/anyone else; Yan Gomes over Willson; Madrigal over (fill in the blank); Swanson over 3 far superior bats; total apathy in the Harper, Seager, Soto offseason talks

running to agents for Sogard, Hosmer, Barnhart, Descalso with his tongue hanging out; he's just not somebody that values good offense which i personally can't stand from a watchability angle

it really is unwatchable. i haven't been able to stomach more than 3 innings of a game in like 3 weeks. It's so brutal

[UMFan83]

36 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Simple solution,  get rid of Madrigal, there your 40 man spot and he can be your bench guy.

I don't hate this idea.  I really think there's not much more I need to see from Madrigal at this point.  He's decent defender, yesterday's error being a glaring exception, but he's had 614 PA with the Cubs and has a .617 OPS.  He has options so you can't have to DFA him if you're really not ready to completely give up on him yet (though you'd have to find some other way to clear a 40 man spot, maybe DFA Mastrobuoni instead).

I'm very dubious about numbers in Iowa, but I don't hate the idea of trying something different, especially a guy that has hit in the major leagues before, albeit was pretty up and down here.

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

and i know that this might sound incendiary, but i really do maintain this point

he's strongly disfavored offense at nearly every turn: Andrelton Simmons over Correa/anyone else; Yan Gomes over Willson; Madrigal over (fill in the blank); Swanson over 3 far superior bats; total apathy in the Harper, Seager, Soto offseason talks

running to agents for Sogard, Hosmer, Barnhart, Descalso with his tongue hanging out; he's just not somebody that values good offense which i personally can't stand from a watchability angle

Playing devil's advocate here, Busch seems to very much be a bat first guy, Suzuki was never supposed to provide much value defensively, to the extent you believe they were choosing between Chapman and Bellinger at the end of the offseason, they went with the guy with the higher offensive ceiling and are more or less letting Morel sink or swim at third (to varying results). I don't think it's fair to say they chose Gomes over Contreras as much as they just chose not to spend $90m on a catcher in his 30s. 

There's actually something aesthetically appealing, to me, about a version of baseball where you are solid defensively, you steer away from the three true outcome guys, you make good baserunning decisions, and you're solid up and down the line up with good/not elite hitters that can work counts and put the ball in play. Which is the kind of baseball that drove so much of their hot half a season last year and was working for them in April of this year. But, yeah, it's seemingly all fallen apart the last few weeks, to the extent where I'm wondering if the kind of baseball team I theoretically enjoy does not line up with the type of team that actually consistently wins games. Tinker at the edges with Madrigal/Bote/Vasquez/whatever all you want, it doesn't mean anything with Seiya, Swanson, Morel, Busch and the catchers all playing like they are currently. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Yeah, I canceled my marquee subscription yesterday. Not in a fit of anger or boiled over frustration or anything like that. Just general boredom with the product on the field.

 

i don’t know. It’s paid for for a couple more weeks. Maybe I change my mind. But this os a wholly unenjoyable baseball team right now.

[UMFan83]

Speaking of the 4 SSs of the 22-23 offseason, here is an updated look at each.  Sorry I'm just using boring slash lines and bWAR:

• Carlos Correa 2024:  .270/.356/.452/.809, 1.0 bWAR
• Trea Turner 2024: .343/.392/.460/.852, 1.6 bWAR (injured last 4 weeks)
• Xander Bogaerts 2024: .219/.265/.316/.581, -0.1 bWAR
• Dansby Swanson 2024: .213/.283/.333/.616, 0.3 bWAR

 

• Carlos Correa since 2023: .238/.321/.409/.730, 2.4 bWAR
• Trea Turner since 2023: .280/.333/.459/.791, 5.0 bWAR
• Xander Bogaerts since 2023: .269/.331/.410/.741, 4.3 bWAR
• Dansby Swanson since 2023: .238/.318/.399/.717, 5.1 bWAR

This year Dansby appears to be the 3rd best of the 4 SSs.  Since 2023 he's been the worst overall hitter, but the most valuable overall player based on at least the bWAR metric.

Considering how the other 3 signed much larger and longer contracts, I suppose Swanson is still defensible as a signing, but maybe "none of the above" may have been an option to consider more.  

[sneakypower]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Speaking of the 4 SSs of the 22-23 offseason, here is an updated look at each.  Sorry I'm just using boring slash lines and bWAR:

• Carlos Correa 2024:  .270/.356/.452/.809, 1.0 bWAR
• Trea Turner 2024: .343/.392/.460/.852, 1.6 bWAR (injured last 4 weeks)
• Xander Bogaerts 2024: .219/.265/.316/.581, -0.1 bWAR
• Dansby Swanson 2024: .213/.283/.333/.616, 0.3 bWAR

 

• Carlos Correa since 2023: .238/.321/.409/.730, 2.4 bWAR
• Trea Turner since 2023: .280/.333/.459/.791, 5.0 bWAR
• Xander Bogaerts since 2023: .269/.331/.410/.741, 4.3 bWAR
• Dansby Swanson since 2023: .238/.318/.399/.717, 5.1 bWAR

This year Dansby appears to be the 3rd best of the 4 SSs.  Since 2023 he's been the worst overall hitter, but the most valuable overall player based on at least the bWAR metric.

Considering how the other 3 signed much larger and longer contracts, I suppose Swanson is still defensible as a signing, but maybe "none of the above" may have been an option to consider more.  

[17 Seconds]

I feel so dumb for thinking jed would cook last offseason

remember when we thought/hoped he brought in counsell to manage a premier roster? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Everyone can have their aesthetic preferences, but the Cubs were 6th in MLB in runs last year. The extent in which all the games felt like 'keep it close and out-bullpen the opponent' is more a function of them being a .500ish team last year than a stylistic choice.  I don't have a clear explanation for the team as a whole putting up a 59 wRC+ the last 2 weeks(I suspect it's definitely not *one thing*), but I'm skeptical that 'entire offense hits like backup catchers for several weeks' is preventable on stylistic grounds.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, sneakypower said:

and i know that this might sound incendiary, but i really do maintain this point

he's strongly disfavored offense at nearly every turn: Andrelton Simmons over Correa/anyone else; Yan Gomes over Willson; Madrigal over (fill in the blank); Swanson over 3 far superior bats; total apathy in the Harper, Seager, Soto offseason talks

running to agents for Sogard, Hosmer, Barnhart, Descalso with his tongue hanging out; he's just not somebody that values good offense which i personally can't stand from a watchability angle

Not sure i agree.  Hoyer has hardly put any money in terms of AAV into SP.   Besides Stroman.

This same offense was 3rd in NL in runs scored last year.  They spent like 28m aav to bring back Cody.  They'll come around.

[sneakypower]

Quote

This same offense was 3rd in NL in runs scored last year. 

a guy coming off 44 & 81 wRC+ played at an MVP level, sometimes better to be lucky than good

he represented 26 RAR vs. just 16 from the rest of the team combined – happily pointing to the halcyon days that were 12th overall in team wRC+, you might just be very easily satisfied

[WhyCantWeWin]

2 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Speaking of the 4 SSs of the 22-23 offseason, here is an updated look at each.  Sorry I'm just using boring slash lines and bWAR:

• Carlos Correa 2024:  .270/.356/.452/.809, 1.0 bWAR
• Trea Turner 2024: .343/.392/.460/.852, 1.6 bWAR (injured last 4 weeks)
• Xander Bogaerts 2024: .219/.265/.316/.581, -0.1 bWAR
• Dansby Swanson 2024: .213/.283/.333/.616, 0.3 bWAR

 

• Carlos Correa since 2023: .238/.321/.409/.730, 2.4 bWAR
• Trea Turner since 2023: .280/.333/.459/.791, 5.0 bWAR
• Xander Bogaerts since 2023: .269/.331/.410/.741, 4.3 bWAR
• Dansby Swanson since 2023: .238/.318/.399/.717, 5.1 bWAR

This year Dansby appears to be the 3rd best of the 4 SSs.  Since 2023 he's been the worst overall hitter, but the most valuable overall player based on at least the bWAR metric.

Considering how the other 3 signed much larger and longer contracts, I suppose Swanson is still defensible as a signing, but maybe "none of the above" may have been an option to consider more.  

So the difference with bwar/fwar is that fielding is more heavily weighted in its calculation in comparison to war? 

[UMFan83]

8 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

So the difference with bwar/fwar is that fielding is more heavily weighted in its calculation in comparison to war? 

I'm not an expert on the differences, but that seems to track knowing that PCA has 0.9 bWAR and I think 0.5 fWAR this year.

[Andy]

3 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

I'm not an expert on the differences, but that seems to track knowing that PCA has 0.9 bWAR and I think 0.5 fWAR this year.

bWAR uses the actual runs allowed for pitchers while fWAR weighs FIP.

An old Reddit comment sums up the differences for non-pitchers:

Quote

Offense is wRC+ for FanGraphs, OPS+ for baseball-reference.

Defense is UZR for FanGraphs, rfield (aka Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)) for baseball-reference.

Baserunning is BsR for FanGraphs, rbaser for baseball-reference.

 

Edited May 28, 2024 by Andy