No offense, But the offense is offensive

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not sure they're not going that way enough; they're 11th in opposite field hits and 13th in opposite field%. As well, while they've been throwing to the outer half more than league average (581% vs 57.7%) they're 13th in seeing pitches on the outer half, it isn't like they're being pitched there in some extreme way. Even looking recently...that number is 19th over their last 16 game stretch...teams aren't going away from them, the inverse is occuring.  They don't seem to be in the bad quadrant here; they're one home run away from league average in oppoHR, they're slightly above league average in outer half pitches, and they're slightly above average in oppo hits and oppo%. 

Hey, screw you and your actual data.  My feelings are more important. 🤣

Interesting to see those numbers.  Are Happ and Dansby outliers in anyway there?

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Hey, screw you and your actual data.  My feelings are more important. 🤣

Interesting to see those numbers.  Are Happ and Dansby outliers in anyway there?

So, here are some league statistics vs the two:

League outerhalf% - 58.7%
League oppo% - 27.1%

Ian Happ outerhalf% - 53.6%
Ian Happ oppo% - 28.7%

Dansby Swanson outerhal% - 63.1% 
Dansby Swanson oppo% - 25.8%

So it looks like Happ needs to pull the ball more and Dansby needs to find a way to force pitchers back inside...likely by going the other way more.

Yeah, the numbers are interesting. I can't prove anything, but I have a feeling that when teams aren't hitting well, the general feeling is "well these guys are just too pull happy!" (it feels like an easy boogeyman). Not trying to throw you or anyone under the bus, I'm just as guilty of it, so it's not at anyone, just I think a bad habit many baseball fans/former players go to. Baseball savant makes me look stupid constantly for my preconceived notions (case in point, Alonfo Soriano didn't strike out nearly as much as I thought I remembered him doing. Damn you, selective memory).

[CubinNY]

Should be a banger of a series 

[Soul]

I wish the site would let me laugh and cry at the same time.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Should be a banger of a series 

BABIP - 28th (.253)

Hard Hit Rate - 19th (38.4%)

HR/FB - 29th (7.0%)

Barrel Rate - 19th (7.8%)

[BigSlick]

I don't think so good, I'm a stupid person. But part of me can't help but think one element of the Cubs offensive woes is that... there is really no dude on the team you can imagine, at max potential, reaching a .900 OPS. There are dudes you can see with an .800, even .850 OPS, but nobody that is just a horsefeathers baller star who just crunches the baseballs. There are Good hitters but no Great hitters on this team. 

Does that matter for run production? I have no idea. Probably not. It's probably my stupid brain making stupid conclusions. 

Also, it's really annoying that a .700 OPS is roughly a 100 OPS+. That sucks. MLB needs to do something about that, maybe juice the baseball again or something. Despite all the rules finagling to try to help offense (which I hated in principle, other than the pitchclock which is an unalloyed good), offense is worse than ever. Annoying! 

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

But part of me can't help but think one element of the Cubs offensive woes is that... there is really no dude on the team you can imagine, at max potential, reaching a .900 OPS

Agree conceptually that the Cubs have a lot of good hitters and probably no elite hitters, I honestly have no idea if that's a 'conceptual' problem (6-8 105-115 OPS+ dudes vs a couple 140-150 and then some scrubs). 

Having said that, both Bellinger (.909) and Suzuki (.938) were over .900 in the second half last year. It's there, we just haven't seen it. 

[KCCub]

12 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I don't think so good, I'm a stupid person. But part of me can't help but think one element of the Cubs offensive woes is that... there is really no dude on the team you can imagine, at max potential, reaching a .900 OPS. There are dudes you can see with an .800, even .850 OPS, but nobody that is just a horsefeathers baller star who just crunches the baseballs. There are Good hitters but no Great hitters on this team. 

Does that matter for run production? I have no idea. Probably not. It's probably my stupid brain making stupid conclusions. 

Also, it's really annoying that a .700 OPS is roughly a 100 OPS+. That sucks. MLB needs to do something about that, maybe juice the baseball again or something. Despite all the rules finagling to try to help offense (which I hated in principle, other than the pitchclock which is an unalloyed good), offense is worse than ever. Annoying! 

You’re not alone. Most everyone here has been wanting Jed to add a true superstar middle of the order bat for some time. He’s went with the “a bunch of solid to above average hitters” vs going stars and scrubs. Personally I’ve liked the Rangers (Obviously) and Phillies approach better. Add stars/great bats and figure out the rest later. We’re at the point of no return with this core however. 

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I don't think so good, I'm a stupid person. But part of me can't help but think one element of the Cubs offensive woes is that... there is really no dude on the team you can imagine, at max potential, reaching a .900 OPS. There are dudes you can see with an .800, even .850 OPS, but nobody that is just a horsefeathers baller star who just crunches the baseballs. There are Good hitters but no Great hitters on this team. 

Does that matter for run production? I have no idea. Probably not. It's probably my stupid brain making stupid conclusions. 

Also, it's really annoying that a .700 OPS is roughly a 100 OPS+. That sucks. MLB needs to do something about that, maybe juice the baseball again or something. Despite all the rules finagling to try to help offense (which I hated in principle, other than the pitchclock which is an unalloyed good), offense is worse than ever. Annoying! 

I think the flipside is if you have too many of your offensive resources consolidated into 2-3 bats it can be problematic as well.  Think about how the 2017-2021 Cubs were generally less productive than the sum of their parts.

The problem with the Cubs IMO is they attempted to focus on depth over starpower, but have still ahd 3-4 duds in the lineup a lot of days.  A lot of that can be blamed on the rash of injuries in late April/early May.  I think with the position player side now healthy and the rough part of the schedule past it's reasonable for things to start settling in more like April where, catcher aside, the team was generally running out positive offensive contributors throughout the lineup.

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

You’re not alone. Most everyone here has been wanting Jed to add a true superstar middle of the order bat for some time. He’s went with the “a bunch of solid to above average hitters” vs going stars and scrubs. Personally I’ve liked the Rangers (Obviously) and Phillies approach better. Add stars/great bats and figure out the rest later. We’re at the point of no return with this core however. 

I agree, but I believe that Jed values payroll flexibility uber alles. The result is what we have on the team. It's not necessarily a bad plan. But we have to hope they strike gold with Cassassie and Alcantara and they matriculate quickly. In the meantime, they trade for some power. 

[profisme]

8 hours ago, Soul said:

I wish the site would let me laugh and cry at the same time.

Just create a Soul2 username and laugh with one and cry with the other. Have your very own alter ego. 

[LBiittner]

22 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I agree, but I believe that Jed values payroll flexibility uber alles. The result is what we have on the team. It's not necessarily a bad plan. But we have to hope they strike gold with Cassassie and Alcantara and they matriculate quickly. In the meantime, they trade for some power. 

Every rumor monger with wifi is linking the Cubs + Alonzo since last offseason right up to today. Including the biggest taleteller : Heyman

In my head and heart I can see a good fit with a little bit of roster juggling.

Biggest question: does jed step up and give the Mets what's necessary. 

Next question: who does he give for Pete?

Jed could find love from Chicago immediately and be the toast of the town if the gamble works. I'm just wondering if Jed has a pair of big-boy pants?

[We Got The Whole 9]

If the Cubs want a 120 bat that provides little value elsewhere there are several options aside from Alonso, who continues to decline offensively and defensively and has been worse than our own 1B. The Cubs have 2 other players that probably shouldn't play the field anymore and should occupy DH instead. 

 

Cronenworth is on the fringe due to Arraez and the rest of the roster 

Winker

Ward

Toro

France

 

You don't need to keep adding names just because, Jed. 

 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If the Cubs want a 120 bat that provides little value elsewhere there are several options aside from Alonso, who continues to decline offensively and defensively and has been worse than our own 1B. The Cubs have 2 other players that probably shouldn't play the field anymore and should occupy DH instead. 

 

Cronenworth is on the fringe due to Arraez and the rest of the roster 

Winker

Ward

Toro

France

 

You don't need to keep adding names just because, Jed. 

 

Not sure about the guys you added, but I agree with you about Alonso. IMO he isn’t worth the probable cost to get him and doesn’t improve the team much, if at all.

Maybe if he can be had for a guy in the 20-30 range of prospects he works. But my guess is the Mets will get more than I would want them to give up. 

[Tryptamine]

in Seiya/Morel they have 2 guys who primarily should be DH, adding a third in Alonso just doesn't work. It especially isn't going to work if PCA starts seeing more playing time which means more Bellinger at 1B.

[LBiittner]

24 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

in Seiya/Morel they have 2 guys who primarily should be DH, adding a third in Alonso just doesn't work. It especially isn't going to work if PCA starts seeing more playing time which means more Bellinger at 1B.

In my mind: pca in center, belli in right, seiya at DH, Alonzo at 1b. 

The leftovers can go to hell

[Bertz]

Stealing a TT move:

Player A: .238/.335/.440,  .338 wOBA, .335 xwOBA, 121 wRC+, 1.1 War

Player B: .237/.309/.475, .338 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, 125 wRC+, 0.9 WAR

Which of these players is Michael Busch and which is Pete Alonso?

[squally1313]

Cubs offense the last 7 days:

• .240/.323/.435
• .334 wOBA (10th)
• 119 wRC (9th)
• 1.3 fWAR (9th)

(Nobody look at sample sizes bigger than that)

[UMFan83]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Stealing a TT move:

Player A: .238/.335/.440,  .338 wOBA, .335 xwOBA, 121 wRC+, 1.1 War

Player B: .237/.309/.475, .338 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, 125 wRC+, 0.9 WAR

Which of these players is Michael Busch and which is Pete Alonso?

Busch is also rated significantly higher defensively.  As much as I value a power bat in the Cubs lineup, I've never seen the appeal of Pete Alonso on the Cubs for a variety of reasons.

[LBiittner]

Love this.

But for me I'd rather have the next 100 games with Pete Alonzo. 

 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Love this.

But for me I'd rather have the next 100 games with Pete Alonzo. 

 

I’d they got him, of course I would root for him and be excited about the possibility of him going on a homer binge. But, tbh, I wouldn’t give up much for him and I am not really sure he helps much. And I definitely wouldn’t want to extend him for long years. 

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I’d they got him, of course I would root for him and be excited about the possibility of him going on a homer binge. But, tbh, I wouldn’t give up much for him and I am not really sure he helps much. And I definitely wouldn’t want to extend him for long years. 

A lot of teams over the years need a move that sparks the lineup. For 100 games, that spark could be a homer hitting firstbaseman playing on an expiring contract? Keep in mind, this guy thru 5 seasons has Ralph Kiner power. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Don’t forget the silly contract Alonso is asking for, pass on renting him 

[Tryptamine]

He wanted a Freddie Freeman contract, at this point I'm not even sure I'd want him at 4/80

[LBiittner]

Tbh, rcal, you said you wouldn't give up much for glasnow last offseason. How does that prognostication look today?

J/k