Cody Is Back

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What have you seen so far? So far in games he has made every play. And, if fact, caught a line drive yesterday that Madrigal doesn’t catch. Two reasons for this. First Morel jumped to catch the ball, which would have been over Madrigal’s head, and second, Madrigal would have been playing closer to home because of his weak arm. I am in no way suggesting Morel wins the job at third. But I am asking how you can make a statement that “from what you have seen” he has been pretty bad. 

Going to guess he means 'the entirety of Morel's career', not 'two spring training games'. 

[Rcal10]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Going to guess he means 'the entirety of Morel's career', not 'two spring training games'. 

That is fair, if that is what he meant. But they are working with him. Just like last year, working with Madrigal. At this time last year people were saying the exact same thing. He can’t play 3rd. I know they have different issues. But I also know the Cubs do think they can get him to adequate at 3rd or they wouldn’t try it. We all know about his past. So I took that statement to mean him seeing him launch a throw in practice a few days ago. I know when he did make a bad throw 20thK commented on it. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Regarding the 40 man crunch, maybe they can trade Smyly to one of the teams that were connected to the Boras pitching clients. Rangers or Yankees, would save them 11 mil too. That's not obscene given what some pitchers made this offseason 

[imb]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Think this is pretty accurate/helpful based on the roster as currently stands, and by accurate I mostly mean "I would come to mostly the same conclusions, if I wasn't allowed to tinker with the roster."

id like to get those wisdom numbers down to about 0, otherwise looks great

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, imb said:

id like to get those wisdom numbers down to about 0, otherwise looks great

We can just pretend the first base ABs are going to go to Belt and the third base ABs are going to Shaw. Or continue hoping against hope that Busch or Morel learns a new position in their late 20s. 

[LBiittner]

40 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

We can just pretend the first base ABs are going to go to Belt and the third base ABs are going to Shaw. Or continue hoping against hope that Busch or Morel learns a new position in their late 20s. 

Jed is hedging his bet on Busch with Smith/Cooper

Counsell is hedging Morel with wisdom/madrigal.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Jed is hedging his bet on Busch with Smith/Cooper

Counsell is hedging Morel with wisdom/madrigal.

Yeah on the second part, on one hand I totally see Wisdom as the easy DFA candidate to clear up the spot for Belli. On the other, it's hard for me to imagine that 2 weeks of spring training was enough for them to leave a roster that has Madirgal/Morel/Busch as your third base options. Not that Wisdom is elite or even maybe average at third, but it just seems to unlike the leadership and their commitment to defense to be left with those three at a really important position. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah on the second part, on one hand I totally see Wisdom as the easy DFA candidate to clear up the spot for Belli. On the other, it's hard for me to imagine that 2 weeks of spring training was enough for them to leave a roster that has Madirgal/Morel/Busch as your third base options. Not that Wisdom is elite or even maybe average at third, but it just seems to unlike the leadership and their commitment to defense to be left with those three at a really important position. 

Counsell seems to be downplaying Wisdom as a 3B option without ruling him out at this point:

Quote

Counsell reiterated on Sunday that Wisdom would continue to work at first base this spring with third base being in his “back pocket.”

There's also Mastrobuoni who can be in that mix.  I suspect there's not a huge difference in how they feel about the 3B group with or without Wisdom.

[LBiittner]

12 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah on the second part, on one hand I totally see Wisdom as the easy DFA candidate to clear up the spot for Belli. On the other, it's hard for me to imagine that 2 weeks of spring training was enough for them to leave a roster that has Madirgal/Morel/Busch as your third base options. Not that Wisdom is elite or even maybe average at third, but it just seems to unlike the leadership and their commitment to defense to be left with those three at a really important position. 

Do you bite the bullet and offer Chapman a 2 year deal with an opt- out?

[muntjack]

I feel like 3rd is Morel's to lose at this point.  

[BigSlick]

alright friends, i guess i should pay attention to the 2024 Cubs now

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Do you bite the bullet and offer Chapman a 2 year deal with an opt- out?

On a short term deal I don't think you can get Chapman without either going over or getting way too close to that 2nd tier of luxury tax ($257m), which is probably the actual hard line this year. 

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

On a short term deal I don't think you can get Chapman without either going over or getting way too close to that 2nd tier of luxury tax ($257m), which is probably the actual hard line this year. 

You're right, plus Jed won't want to give up the draft pick.

Interesting to note, cubs have only exceeded the 1st parameter once - way back in 1999. (Seems like forever)

[thawv]

3 hours ago, The20thK said:

A lot of 29 year old 4 WAR Free Agents? 

There's 53 4 win player last year.  Without looking, I'm certain that most didn't make 30 million.

[thawv]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

We can just pretend the first base ABs are going to go to Belt and the third base ABs are going to Shaw. Or continue hoping against hope that Busch or Morel learns a new position in their late 20s. 

Busch only played 1B before the Dodgers tried him at other positions to get his big stick in the lineup.  He can only play 1B.  He's not learning it. 

[17 Seconds]

27 minutes ago, thawv said:

There's 53 4 win player last year.  Without looking, I'm certain that most didn't make 30 million.

that doesn't mean they aren't worth that in free agency

[Jason Ross]

38 minutes ago, thawv said:

There's 53 4 win player last year.  Without looking, I'm certain that most didn't make 30 million.

Many of them are pre-arb or signed contracts a few years ago. Inflation is real, and players who are pre-arb or even at arb, don't make $30m. 

Based on inflation and contract trends, players who are under 30 years old and are consistent 4 win players will likely be looking at AAV's nearing the $30m range moving forward. Maybe a shade lower, but generally, in that range.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

There's 53 4 win player last year.  Without looking, I'm certain that most didn't make 30 million.

But something like 6/$164 is probably more enticing than 1/$30M. He doesn’t have to aberage $30M a year to opt out. 

[chopsx9]

8 hours ago, thawv said:

If he has a 4 win season again, do you thing he opts out of 30 million?  I know that Boras will tell him to, but I think it should take a 5 win season for him to be wise to opt out.  There's a lot of 4 win players out there, and without looking I would imagine that a high percentage don't make 30 million. 

He had a 4+ war in 130 games.  My guess would be if he has a 4 win season in 150+ games he stays put for one more season. He's 29 next year with another opt out; he's got lots of time.  I'm on record here as saying I believe he's being undervalued due to 3 injury induced lost seasons and single season of questionable hit rates fueled, at least in part, by a specific change in 2 strike approach.  I believe when its all said done signing him long term will have been the play.  I'm not saying the Cubs should have taken whatever contract Boras was slinging - no idea what that was.  I just believe Bellinger will be a very productive player and the Cubs should jump at the opportunity presented by a league exercising an over abundance of caution.  I know there are other differing assessments but I'm going down with the ship.

[chibears55]

Cubs are 0 and 2 and has been outscored 13 to 0 since the return of Bellinger 😅😆

[SOFNR]

9 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

He had a 4+ war in 130 games.  My guess would be if he has a 4 win season in 150+ games he stays put for one more season. He's 29 next year with another opt out; he's got lots of time.  I'm on record here as saying I believe he's being undervalued due to 3 injury induced lost seasons and single season of questionable hit rates fueled, at least in part, by a specific change in 2 strike approach.  I believe when its all said done signing him long term will have been the play.  I'm not saying the Cubs should have taken whatever contract Boras was slinging - no idea what that was.  I just believe Bellinger will be a very productive player and the Cubs should jump at the opportunity presented by a league exercising an over abundance of caution.  I know there are other differing assessments but I'm going down with the ship.

Naw. If he has another 4 win season this year someone will give him more then 50 mil guaranteed going forward. Probably atleast double that. He'll absolutely opt out.

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

My guess would be if he has a 4 win season in 150+ games he stays put for one more season.

Not a chance.  If he puts up 4+ WAR again this year he's opting out and the floor for his contract is something like Marcus Semien money. 

[chopsx9]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Not a chance.  If he puts up 4+ WAR again this year he's opting out and the floor for his contract is something like Marcus Semien money. 

Certainly possible - I did say 4 WAR not 4+ - so I'm thinking 3.8 - 4.2ish - the main point is if he has the same WAR stretched over 150+ games then his numbers have likely dropped a bit - maybe that lends more weight to the batted ball concerns if they remain the same BUT then you have an additional year of production.  I think he's over 5 for the year anyway so I think it will be less murky.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Not a chance.  If he puts up 4+ WAR again this year he's opting out and the floor for his contract is something like Marcus Semien money. 

I am with you. If he has a good year he is opting out. Why chance another good year for that $30M when you can most assuredly get a 6 year or more deal for $160M or more. Maybe he even gets a 7 or 8 year deal if he has a great season next year. To me, Cubs have Bellinger for one more year. If it is more, that means he sucked or was injured in 24’.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Jed is hedging his bet on Busch with Smith/Cooper

Counsell is hedging Morel with wisdom/madrigal.

Busch is also an option at 3B if all else fails, plus Mastrobuoni and some other guys who will be in Iowa.  If Wisdom plays 3B for any extended period of time this year something has gone horribly wrong.