Cody Is Back

[Tim]

I think Mastro should absolutely be on the roster. 

[JBears79]

10 minutes ago, Tim said:

I think Mastro should absolutely be on the roster. 

same. He finished the year strong and hes versatile. 

[Bull]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Why can't he DH vs RHP?  They don't have a lot of power LH bats to DH.  Dom Smith, Peralta, Tauchman, Mastrobuoni, not the best group.  We don't have a DH

Morel is your DH. Morel getting reps at 3B will not be fruitful. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs have made it blatantly obvious they don't love Matt Mervis. They didn't include him on the OD roster last year, they gave him a quick shout in the MLB and then buried him back in the MiLB behind players they would later DFA, such as Jared Young, when space opened up. The Cubs already have questionable defensive corners in Patrick Wisdom, and how likely/unlikely the Cubs are to play questionable defensive players like Morel and Busch outside of 1b/DH is yet to be seen at the MLB level. The less playing time those two are going to get away from those position the less chance the Cubs carry around a (likely) 1b/DH (mostly DH) only platoon bat. Especially one they don't appear to like that much.

There's a very narrow path than likely requires one, perhaps two, injuries to occur to see Matt Mervis make the Cubs opening day roster. I truly don't think MLB teams make many decisions based on ST, and with Mervis, they've either already decided or haven't on his future roll with the Cubs before hand.  I'd say the chances are much higher he's traded in the next few days to open up a 40-man slot for Bellinger than it is for him to make the Cubs OD.

Not loving Mervis doesn't mean he won't be on the roster though.  He'd probably be the last guy chosen for the bench if he made it.  I think they like Busch better because he's a better prospect, and they aren't just going to give Mervis a job since they're clearly less sure of him.  I think they like Mervis better than Jared Young overall because they decided to DFA Young over Mervis.  I think Young got the late season callup last year because he had a much calmer personality that could better handle the pressures of a late-season playoff race.  Mervis was clearly frustrated and into his own head during his MLB stint last year.

He very well may not make the OD roster, and he might be traded too, but he's also not a bad option to try at DH vs RHP at no risk.  Having Happ, Bellinger, Busch, and Mervis all hitting lefty in the lineup vs RHP could turn out pretty decent.

[Stratos]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Not loving Mervis doesn't mean he won't be on the roster though.  He'd probably be the last guy chosen for the bench if he made it.  I think they like Busch better because he's a better prospect, and they aren't just going to give Mervis a job since they're clearly less sure of him.  I think they like Mervis better than Jared Young overall because they decided to DFA Young over Mervis.  I think Young got the late season callup last year because he had a much calmer personality that could better handle the pressures of a late-season playoff race.  Mervis was clearly frustrated and into his own head during his MLB stint last year.

He very well may not make the OD roster, and he might be traded too, but he's also not a bad option to try at DH vs RHP at no risk.  Having Happ, Bellinger, Busch, and Mervis all hitting lefty in the lineup vs RHP could turn out pretty decent.

Well this could change things.  He hits RH though.  Wonder if it's a minor league deal (edit:  it is a minor league deal)

 

Edited February 26, 2024 by Stratos

[Bull]

10 minutes ago, The20thK said:

? I’m looking at FanGraphs and I don’t see a strong finish. In the last two months he had 36 PAs and 11 hits. 35 of those were in Sept.

 

How do you define “strong finish”

and what were you looking at? 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miles-mastrobuoni/20017/splits?season=0&position=3B&split=2.6
 

11 for 33 is a .333 BA

there wasn’t much slug or obp on top of it, but the numbers you cited don’t make the point that September ‘23 was less than “strong” as Miles Mastroboni months go.

[Bull]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Not loving Mervis doesn't mean he won't be on the roster though.  He'd probably be the last guy chosen for the bench if he made it.  I think they like Busch better because he's a better prospect, and they aren't just going to give Mervis a job since they're clearly less sure of him.  I think they like Mervis better than Jared Young overall because they decided to DFA Young over Mervis.  I think Young got the late season callup last year because he had a much calmer personality that could better handle the pressures of a late-season playoff race.  Mervis was clearly frustrated and into his own head during his MLB stint last year.

He very well may not make the OD roster, and he might be traded too, but he's also not a bad option to try at DH vs RHP at no risk.  Having Happ, Bellinger, Busch, and Mervis all hitting lefty in the lineup vs RHP could turn out pretty decent.

There is no way Matt Mervis is on the opening day roster. There is very little chance he gets enough AAA PAs to earn a call up unless there are more injuries and failures than any of us care to consider. He is an afterthought.  He won’t even be protected or taken in the rule 5.

[Stratos]

2 minutes ago, Bull said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miles-mastrobuoni/20017/splits?season=0&position=3B&split=2.6
 

11 for 33 is a .333 BA

there wasn’t much slug or obp on top of it, but the numbers you cited don’t make the point that September ‘23 was less than “strong” as Miles Mastroboni months go.

He's basically slap hitter with speed who walks a lot, and is versatile defensively.  Speedy infield version of Tauchman.  He could make the roster but hard to see him getting much playing time without an injury besides pinch-running and/or as a late-inning sub.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Not loving Mervis doesn't mean he won't be on the roster though.  He'd probably be the last guy chosen for the bench if he made it.  I think they like Busch better because he's a better prospect, and they aren't just going to give Mervis a job since they're clearly less sure of him.  I think they like Mervis better than Jared Young overall because they decided to DFA Young over Mervis.  I think Young got the late season callup last year because he had a much calmer personality that could better handle the pressures of a late-season playoff race.  Mervis was clearly frustrated and into his own head during his MLB stint last year.

He very well may not make the OD roster, and he might be traded too, but he's also not a bad option to try at DH vs RHP at no risk.  Having Happ, Bellinger, Busch, and Mervis all hitting lefty in the lineup vs RHP could turn out pretty decent.

I mean, not loving Mervis likely exactly means that. Do you expect the Cubs to prioritize a player they don't love on the 26 man roster? Because I certainly don't. Thats why they didn't play him last year and they just signed *another* NRI 1b. We can try to justify why they called up Young, but you have no idea. That's based, 100% on what you think. What we know is the Cubs thought Jared Young was a better bet in September and then DFA'd him. That doesn't bode well.

This isn't about how you and I feel about Mervis. With that said, his Triple A data last year upon his return is quite worrisome from a contact perspective and that's a big indicator of future success, so I'd ere on the side of "actually he might be a bad option". The Cubs probably don't need a second 1b option who is going to platoon against LHP.

We will see what happens but I think a lot of why people feel Mervis is a good option is because of how quickly he jumped up. Deeper dives into his process and how the Cubs have treated him suggest there's some issue there. I have had to reevaluate how I feel about him and have come more and more to the conclusion that there's heavy reason to be skeptical of his ability to be an MLB regular.

[Tim]

1 minute ago, The20thK said:

I mean, sure BA was good but nothing else was. And it was a mere 35 PAs. 
 

That’s why I asked what you define strong finish as. IMO, Suzuki had a strong finish that I hope he builds upon. MM had a couple good ABs and the ss was so small that it absolutely shouldn’t be a factor in whether or not he is on the team this year. 

For the second half he had a .309/.347/.382 line worth a 102 wRC+, he plays solid defense across the infield and adds a lot of value on the basepaths. He's a left handed hitter, so he complements the other infield options very well.

[Bull]

3 minutes ago, The20thK said:

I mean, sure BA was good but nothing else was. And it was a mere 35 PAs. 
 

That’s why I asked what you define strong finish as. IMO, Suzuki had a strong finish that I hope he builds upon. MM had a couple good ABs and the ss was so small that it absolutely shouldn’t be a factor in whether or not he is on the team this year. 

My point is that he is what he is, and Sept was probably the best possible version of what he is. It was a “sting finish” exactly as the previous poster said. Don’t work too hard on this. He is a defensive replacement infielder. Any hitting is a bonus. 
My opinion is that he is superfluous on a team with two gold glove caliber shortstops. Wisdom or Busch or Madrigal or a concrete block could play 3B and you have an excellent infield. Really just anyone but Morel. Because a concrete block can’t launch an errant throw into the first base dugout.

[Tim]

Just now, Bull said:

My point is that he is what he is, and Sept was probably the best possible version of what he is. It was a “sting finish” exactly as the previous poster said. Don’t work too hard on this. He is a defensive replacement infielder. Any hitting is a bonus. 
My opinion is that he is superfluous on a team with two gold glove caliber shortstops. Wisdom or Busch or Madrigal or a concrete block could play 3B and you have an excellent infield. Really just anyone but Morel. Because a concrete block can’t launch an errant throw into the first base dugout.

I think you're underestimating Morel here.

 

With his arm strength that throw is going into the stands.

[Tim]

1 minute ago, The20thK said:

TBF though that’s only 51 PAs. 
 

Is that really a strong finish? That’s all I’m saying. He’s got a glove on him and he is versatile. If he makes the team, it’ll be for that reason and not his bat. 
 

and certainly not because of a “strong finish” to the 2023 season. 

I'm not the one that called it a strong finish.

For a utility infielder with his speed and glove, if he can be an average hitter he's going to have value on the roster. If you're choosing those last roster spots at this point, hitting lefty as an infielder probably gives him an edge.

If Morel shows enough to be starting 3B, the bench options would be:

• Amaya (lock)
• Madrigal
• Mastro
• Tauchman vs Peralta vs Canario
• Wisdom vs Cooper vs Smith vs Mervis

I guess they could conceivably keep three of the OF/1B/DH options. But Mastro also acts as a backup OF on the roster.

If Morel doesn't show enough to be playing at 3B, then it really comes down to whether they want Wisdom or one of those other guys at the 1B/DH role.

One way or another, I like the back end of the roster a hell of a lot more this year than past years.

[Stratos]

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I mean, not loving Mervis likely exactly means that. Do you expect the Cubs to prioritize a player they don't love on the 26 man roster? Because I certainly don't. Thats why they didn't play him last year and they just signed *another* NRI 1b. We can try to justify why they called up Young, but you have no idea. That's based, 100% on what you think. What we know is the Cubs thought Jared Young was a better bet in September and then DFA'd him. That doesn't bode well.

This isn't about how you and I feel about Mervis. With that said, his Triple A data last year upon his return is quite worrisome from a contact perspective and that's a big indicator of future success, so I'd ere on the side of "actually he might be a bad option". The Cubs probably don't need a second 1b option who is going to platoon against LHP.

We will see what happens but I think a lot of why people feel Mervis is a good option is because of how quickly he jumped up. Deeper dives into his process and how the Cubs have treated him suggest there's some issue there. I have had to reevaluate how I feel about him and have come more and more to the conclusion that there's heavy reason to be skeptical of his ability to be an MLB regular.

Well I don't have a high value of Mervis and i'm also skeptical of his as an MLB regular and always have been.  I was against him being on the OD roster last year, but with a year more of experience I see it as a better option than it was last year, but he would platoon at DH at best.  At the end of the day whoever makes the cut for that roster spot is going to be last position player on the 26-man.

I'm interested to see what they do at DH vs RHP.  There's options like Tauchman, Mervis, Canario, Wisdom, Mastrobuoni, maybe Morel.  Later they have Dom Smith and Peralta as options too.  They probably go with matchups of bench guys unless 1 or 2 guys start to stand out.

Edited February 26, 2024 by Stratos

[jersey cubs fan]

How has a Cody Bellinger signing thread turned into another Mervis/Poochy thread?

 

Men will literally talk about Mervis at any time rather than go to therapy 

[thawv]

On 2/25/2024 at 4:16 AM, 1908_Cubs said:

Solid contract. Will essentially be a one year deal barring injury or tanking. Good job on waiting that one out.

 

Bad news is that we get to have this same offseason next one. With Hendricks, Bellinger, Smyly, Gomes, Bote, and some dead money coming off, the Cubs will once again have a lot of money under the LT, tons of prospects and will be labeled as the team to watch. 

If he has a 4 win season again, do you thing he opts out of 30 million?  I know that Boras will tell him to, but I think it should take a 5 win season for him to be wise to opt out.  There's a lot of 4 win players out there, and without looking I would imagine that a high percentage don't make 30 million. 

[thawv]

On 2/25/2024 at 7:17 AM, The20thK said:

No i mean the total salary for the Cubs. Where we stand with the LT. 

I'm sure it's been answered, but I'm not looking for it.  They are 6 million under at 231 mil

[thawv]

17 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Part of me wonders if he doesn't do what the Dodgers did a couple times this offseason and trade one or two guys off the 40 man for interesting unrostered prospects. 

I love Keegan and want him to be a thing again but he might be the odd man out this time. There's plenty other starters/long relievers that have leapfrogged him on the depth chart.

To me, this is the obvious thing to do.  And they really don't need to get much back.  It's just opening up roster spot(s) and getting something instead of nothing. 

[thawv]

16 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I agree as things stand right now, but it will really depend on what happens the next few years.  If Bellinger plays well and opts out into another big contract, this may very well end up being the best possible thing for him (and Boras will spin it as such).  If he regresses and misses his one prime opportunity for a long term deal, then it will be a huge loss for him.  A minor loss for the Cubs, but a huge loss for Cody/Boras.  This deal is high risk for Cody and relatively low risk for the Cubs.  Ultimately though, I think both sides would be thrilled if Bellinger has a great season and opts out after the first year.

I'd rather him have a 3 win season and take his 30 million in 2025, followed up by a 6 win season and opt out after 2 years!

[Bull]

10 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Man, I like this signing. It’s the KISS move to whatever I was trying to do with terrible ideas like Cronenworth and MJ Melendez. Longtime NSBBers that haven’t blocked will know that I’ve banged the table to get more flyball hitters the past couple offseasons and, statcast woes aside, it’s a horsefeathers to find someone available with Bellinger’s  batted ball approach on offense (big part of why I’m a Busch believer). Throw in the contact and he’s basically a souped up Cronenworth on offense with better defense or, and FGs and a couple posters (probably TT or Bertz) mentioned this before, similar in approach to former future Cubs legend Isaac Paredes. He’s even got a path to more HRs after pulling fewer balls than usual during 2023. 2-3 WAR should be pretty easy even at 1B and another 4 isn’t crazy out there 

I really like how he compliments the expectations for Busch as the only other expected OD starting LHH (not counting Happ v RHP). Busch is going to be an Iso monster this year and move around a little on defense but there’s risk for both bad defense pushing him to DH and some Ks as he adjusts. 

Is it too much to ask for Luis Robert next? I like Crow-Armsrtrong and all but Robert’s also a monster defender and with way more power 

You're working really hard here for comps. No need. He is the comp. He is a known commodity. The conversation should revolve around versions of Cody Bellinger. Was the early success last year an indication that the shoulder is finally healed and the late drop-off an indication of reinjury or fatigue? Is he a new thing that is defined by limited success last year, and he'll never return to MVP form? Is he *almost* back to full steam and we can hope for even more this year? Only time will tell, but the deal is good if he is last years CB and great if he continues to regain strength and return to MVP caliber at the plate.

[Bull]

10 hours ago, The20thK said:

Ehhh it was 35 PA’s… that shouldn’t get anyone excited, nor should it be something anyone points to as a measure of success or predictability. 

Exactly. As I said, he's a defensive replacement infielder and superfluous on a team with two gold glove caliber shortstops. If Dansby needs a day off, you put Nico at short and Morel at 2B where he can't do too much damage with bad throws. Miles has options left. Put him in Iowa in case of an injury to Nico or Dansby. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

If he has a 4 win season again, do you thing he opts out of 30 million?  I know that Boras will tell him to, but I think it should take a 5 win season for him to be wise to opt out.  There's a lot of 4 win players out there, and without looking I would imagine that a high percentage don't make 30 million. 

Yeah but most of them could probably find more than $50m guaranteed over the life of their remaining contract. 

[17 Seconds]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

If he has a 4 win season again, do you thing he opts out of 30 million?  I know that Boras will tell him to, but I think it should take a 5 win season for him to be wise to opt out.  There's a lot of 4 win players out there, and without looking I would imagine that a high percentage don't make 30 million. 

he's definitely opting out if he has another 4 win season. he'll still only be 29 and teams will be less worried about his multi year slump than they were this offseason

[squally1313]

Think this is pretty accurate/helpful based on the roster as currently stands, and by accurate I mostly mean "I would come to mostly the same conclusions, if I wasn't allowed to tinker with the roster."

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, The20thK said:

I can’t see Morel playing 3rd. What we’ve seen so far has been pretty bad. 
 

Wisdom/Madrigal will likely be it this year, with maybe a mid season addition like last year. 

What have you seen so far? So far in games he has made every play. And, if fact, caught a line drive yesterday that Madrigal doesn’t catch. Two reasons for this. First Morel jumped to catch the ball, which would have been over Madrigal’s head, and second, Madrigal would have been playing closer to home because of his weak arm. I am in no way suggesting Morel wins the job at third. But I am asking how you can make a statement that “from what you have seen” he has been pretty bad.