Cubs trading for Michael Busch & Yency Almonte (for Ferris & Hope)

[Tryptamine]

I don't think there's any age restrictions on any list and he didn't have enough PAs to lose rookie eligibility.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

We need to get you one of these buddy

Tough getting old and typing with thumbs. Then not being able to see what you typed without reading glasses. If you are lucky you will be here some day. 

[ILMindState]

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

When would he age out of those lists?  Does he still qualify for 2024?

He'd have to get enough playing/service time to not qualify anymore.  Each list's eligibility criteria are slightly different, but him staying in the Pipeline list is probably a good sign.  Fangraphs says he has 45 days of service time.

[Irrelevant Dude]

8 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

They just don’t think Mervis is a real player.

I agree, but they need to do "something" with Mervis, even if that is trading him for a low-level lottery ticket.  If they don't have any confidence in him ever contributing to the Major League team, then he is just taking up space at AAA and on the 40 man roster.

[gocubs218]

I saw this elsewhere but hopefully he can have a Nolan Jones type impact, at least with the bat. 

[Stratos]

This likely takes Hoskins and  guys like Belt etc off the table.   We get a LHB which was needed.

I think they're intent on keeping payroll under the cap.  After Imanaga the projected payroll is at about 198m. That leaves about 35m max. Bellinger and pen arms would eat all of that up and leave no room for Hoskins.

Can obviously DH, an option at 1B in case Mervis doesn't hit.  Could see a few starts at 3B when they really want to go left handed.  Might sit for Canario/Morel/Wisdom etc at DH vs tough LHP

Maybe another trade to come to ease the 40-man

Edited January 11, 2024 by Stratos

[Post Count Padder]

This is a wild trade. Ferris was probably my favorite pitching prospect in the system and I'm pretty bummed. Busch is a great prospect but now we have two bat-first guys without a position? I hope this doesn't lead to a Morel trade just for the sake of it. I'm still digesting all this. 

[SOFNR]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

This likely takes Hoskins and  guys like Belt etc off the table.   We get a LHB which was needed.

I think they're intent on keeping payroll under the cap.  After Imanaga the projected payroll is at about 198m. That leaves about 35m max. Bellinger and pen arms would eat all of that up and leave no room for Hoskins.

Can obviously DH, an option at 1B in case Mervis doesn't hit.  Could see a few starts at 3B when they really want to go left handed.  Might sit for Canario/Morel/Wisdom etc at DH vs tough LHP

Maybe another trade to come to ease the 40-man

I sure hope they didn't do this just to cheap out. My guess is they believe in Busch as a legit starter going forward. This is a top 50 prospect with great numbers in the minors. 1B would seem to be the best fit. I don't think Mervis is really anywhere on their depth chart for this season. He's likely gone. This move makes it a little easier for Jed to wait out the Boras clients. I could still see Hoskins/Bellinger.  There's absolutely no reason to sit under the tax this year and I'll be pretty pissed if that's their aim.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Hope was the other guy. Ferris is a big loss, a guy I had pegged for the top 100 in 2024.

Ferris has good stuff but the control is very questionable, his delivery is pretty messy and long when watching him on video.  That's not just a minor tweak to fix

Still a good prospect but so is Busch and Busch helps us now instead of 3-4 years from now.  About time we traded low minor prospects for closer talent to speed up this rebuilt.

Edited January 11, 2024 by Stratos

[Michael Busch Light]

33 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

They need to be Top 100 in 2 out of 3 of MLB, BA, and ESPN's Top 100 to be eligible for that incentive.  Last year Busch was 54 in both MLB & BA and just outside ESPN's Top 100, and right now MLB Pipeline shows him as #44, so I think there's a pretty good chance.

That's a neat little added bonus here.  

[JBears79]

Damn. It sucks to lose Ferris but I like Busch and he's for sure on the opening day roster

[Michael Busch Light]

I actually kind of like that Busch is already 26 here.  If he is a dude we would have through his entire prime.  

[Bertz]

A few stray thoughts, some of these have been touched on I think.

- Odds PCA opens the year in MLB are basically nil now.  No way two opening day spots are manned by rookies with 100 MLB plate appearances between them

- That in turn makes me even more sure Bellinger is coming back (I was like 85% sure this morning, I'm 90-something now)

- I don't think staying under the LT is the plan, but it's certainly more feasible than it was a few hours ago

- Adding a second substantial SP feels much more likely now than it did prior.  Conversely adding a second FA bat isn't as much of a certainty anymore (though I'd guess it's still more likely than not)

- Feels pretty likely that one of Morel/Busch is the everyday 3B, or Morel's about to be traded.  It doesn’t HAVE to be either/or, but it feels pretty either/or

- Another trade is probably not far behind this.  Even if it's just a minor cleaning up the 40 man sort of deal

- Between this and the low AAV on Imanaga, I think it's very likely that Jed pays market price on a FA reliever like Hicks or Stephenson

[Jason Ross]

I'm working on an article right now with a big deep dive into Michael Busch but I'll let a bit of the cat out of the bag: 

The more I dig into Michael Busch...the more I really like him.

[Bertz]

Quote

 

While listed as a third baseman, scouts see him as below-average at best at the position. The Cubs value defense, especially in the infield, extremely highly. With multiple contact-oriented pitchers in the rotation, having Busch play third could be hard to reconcile.

With that in mind, the expectation is that Busch will enter spring training as the team’s primary first baseman with a chance to move around the diamond. Obviously, as a first baseman, he’ll need to hit, but scouts believe he’ll do enough at the plate for that to not be a concern.

Almonte fills needed depth to a bullpen that really struggled at the start of last season and then was gassed by September. He has a sweeping slider that has helped him punish righties. He lost the pitch for a bit last season which helped lead to his struggles. But upon finally regaining command of the pitch, he suffered a knee injury that ended his season. If he can continue to use that pitch and find ways to get out lefties like he did in 2022, he could be another strong piece to a bullpen that desperately needs more capable arms.

 

 

[Bertz]

 

 

[UMFan83]

51 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Don’t confuse Busch for Mervis! Very different prospects, maybe easiest to see in that both are 26 next year and there’s a 700+ PA gap btw the two (2800+ to 2100+) in experience btw NCAA, MiLB, MLB

Top 100 v not, different defenders and athletes, more contact, fewer Ks, 1st v UDFA, a rolling Dodgers program v Cubs, etc 

I think I made the first comparison in this thread though I called Busch a rich man's Mervis.  You can see how on the surface there are some similarities, though having reading a little more into Busch I back away from the comparison a bit.

RE: the tidbit posted above, I don't love the idea of Busch having the inside track at 1B.  The Cubs value versatility so I'd prefer him to not be slotted for any particular role but prepared to give him opportunities to work himself into the everyday lineup.  I'm more confident with Counsell that he can properly establish him into the mix.  There are still solid 1B options out there and I'd rather have someone established there after the Hosmer/Mancini disaster last year (yes established major leaguers but a gamble to make them the primary 1B options).  

Also is this the end of Mervis being anything for the Cubs or does he just become minor league depth?

Edited January 11, 2024 by UMFan83

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I think I made the first comparison in this thread though I called Busch a rich man's Mervis.  You can see how on the surface there are some similarities, though having reading a little more into Busch I back away from the comparison a bit.

RE: the tidbit posted above, I don't love the idea of Busch having the inside track at 1B.  The Cubs value versatility so I'd prefer him to not be slotted for any particular role but prepared to give him opportunities to work himself into the everyday lineup.  I'm more confident with Counsell that he can properly establish him into the mix.  There are still solid 1B options out there and I'd rather have someone established there after the Hosmer/Mancini disaster last year (yes established major leaguers but a gamble to make them the primary 1B options).  

Also is this the end of Mervis being anything for the Cubs or does he just become minor league depth?

I think very much Matt Mervis is dealt. I wrote the other day about his contact issues in AAA, but I think the Cubs don't love Merv based on that data and how they treated him at the end of the season,

[Rob]

Yeah, at this point it's pretty clear what the Cubs think of Mervis. If another team comes along looking to plunder him, I doubt it would take much. That said, he's decent depth, and the Cubs are probably perfectly content to give him a list of things to work on and see if he can't fix something in AAA until roster issues force them to make a decision.

[Outshined_One]

Ferris is years away from the majors, but I've thought of him as the highest upside arm in the system and had him pegged as my #1 Cubs prospect at the end of next season.

It's the price you pay for quality, but man, it'd better be worth it.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, SOFNR said:

I sure hope they didn't do this just to cheap out. My guess is they believe in Busch as a legit starter going forward. This is a top 50 prospect with great numbers in the minors. 1B would seem to be the best fit. I don't think Mervis is really anywhere on their depth chart for this season. He's likely gone. This move makes it a little easier for Jed to wait out the Boras clients. I could still see Hoskins/Bellinger.  There's absolutely no reason to sit under the tax this year and I'll be pretty pissed if that's their aim.

I don't see why they wouldn't try to give Mervis more playing time this season.  They aren't going to write him off based on 100 PA'.s  He's got the hitting tools and hit very well AAA again,  But now they have options and don't need to rely on him.  They need lefty bats as well.

Busch is pretty similar to Mervis but more highly regarded it seems.  MLB.com just slotted Busch in as our #3 prospect under Horton.  He was the Dodgers' #2 prospect on MLB.com.  A bit surprised based on the lack of glove/position but I guess the bat is good.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I don't see why they wouldn't try to give Mervis more playing time this season.  They aren't going to write him off based on 100 PA'.s  He's got the hitting tools and hit very well AAA again,  But now they have options and don't need to rely on him.  They need lefty bats as well.

Busch is pretty similar to Mervis but more highly regarded it seems.  MLB.com just slotted Busch in as our #3 prospect under Horton.  He was the Dodgers' #2 prospect on MLB.com.  A bit surprised based on the lack of glove/position but I guess the bat is good.

I actually think the two are quite different once you get beyond the surface. Did a deep dive on Mervis in Triple-A the other day and just got done with an article that should post shortly on Busch. Conclusions: I fear Mervis is a Quaruple-A player due to his recent downturn in contact%, especially at the Triple-A level. I don't see the same concerns with Busch. 

[LBiittner]

1900 did an excellent write-up and break-down about Mervis hit tool the other day. His research really explained a lot on how the Cubs probably lost some confidence in Mervis'

future. After reading his explanation, it further supports the Busch move today

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

1900 did an excellent write-up and break-down about Mervis hit tool the other day. His research really explained a lot on how the Cubs probably lost some confidence in Mervis'

future. After reading his explanation, it further supports the Busch move today

Thanks! Just you wait for Michael Busch. I fear I'm just doing some shiny new toy syndrome stuff, but I was really encouraged with his progression from 2022 to 2023.