Cubs trading for Michael Busch & Yency Almonte (for Ferris & Hope)

[UMFan83]

Very ignorant comment but seems like a rich man’s Mervis just by looking at basic details

Top 100 prospect that hit well in AAA but struggled in a <100 PA audition in majors. Questions about defensive fit and long term position. 
 

of course Busch was a consensus top 60 prospect, hit almost 100 points higher in OPS at AAA while Mervis was a fringe top 100 guy in one ranking system. 
 

On one hand top 100 prospects are so hard to get teams to give up these days it makes me wonder why the Dodgers were so willing to part with him but on the other hand they clearly didn’t have a full time spot for him next year and got back a potential top 100 guy but further back in the development process so it helps them out in the short term I guess. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

This also tells me the Cubs probably didn't think as high of Ferris as some of us did.  They have had some time to watch him and, if they thought he looked like a future top or mid-rotation starter, they don't make this deal.

[gocubs218]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Ferris is a steep price to pay for a AAAA guy like this. Hopefully he works out better than McKinstry 

Good grief. He’s not AAAA.

[Michael Busch Light]

This wouldn't have been necessary if we didn't take Ryan Jensen over Busch in the 2019 draft, but here we are. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

Ferris is a steep price to pay for a AAAA guy like this. Hopefully he works out better than McKinstry 

This is selling him way short. The bat is absolutely legit.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

So two roster holes plugged for less than $16 million. Yesterday we heard from (multiple?) national reporters that the Cubs could still come down with two of Bellinger/Hoskins/Chapman/Montgomery. Hoskins is an awkward fit if Morel and Busch are both on the roster, but a Morel trade for a pitcher could be even more likely now. It’ll be very interesting to see how Jed maneuvers the rest of the offseason from a bit of new found financial and roster flexibility.

 

 

[chibears55]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He's had two runs in AAA and is 26. I doubt the Cubs traded for a 26 year old with 900 PAs thinking 80 PAs is enough to shove him back there. 

They better hope he not still trying to figure it out in May.

Then they gave up 2 young kids with future potentials for 2 guys that are very questionable. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, chibears55 said:

They better hope he not still trying to figure it out in May.

Then they gave up 2 young kids with future potentials for 2 guys that are very questionable. 

I would say that the Cubs probably have a plan here lol. I don't think this was an accident.

[17 Seconds]

busch is a lottery ticket, but so is ferris. give me the one who doesn't pitch and has a chance to help the team this season

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Javy Bystro said:

This wouldn't have been necessary if we didn't take Ryan Jensen over Busch in the 2019 draft, but here we are. 

I remember this. The Cubs were getting tied to Kody Hoese, and Michael Busch a lot with some word of Michael Toglia too. Hoese went off the board a couple picks before the Cubs so we all thought it was Busch. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

They better hope he not still trying to figure it out in May.

Then they gave up 2 young kids with future potentials for 2 guys that are very questionable. 

Or you could look at it as the Cubs gave up 2 questionable young kids who might help in a few years for a couple of questionable big leaguers who might help in 2024. 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

So two roster holes plugged for less than $16 million. Yesterday we heard from (multiple?) national reporters that the Cubs could still come down with two of Bellinger/Hoskins/Chapman/Montgomery. Hoskins is an awkward fit if Morel and Busch are both on the roster, but a Morel trade for a pitcher could be even more likely now. It’ll be very interesting to see how Jed maneuvers the rest of the offseason from a bit of new found financial and roster flexibility.

 

 

Let's assume the plan is still Bellinger and Hoskins.  You'd have a lineup of something like

Happ (LF)

Hoskins (1B)

Seiya (RF)

Bellinger (CF)

Swanson (SS)

Hoerner (2B)

Morel (DH)

Busch (3B)

Gomes (C)

No superstar bat, but every spot in that lineup projects north of league average except catcher, and Gomes/Amaya are likely above average offensively by catcher standards.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Very ignorant comment but seems like a rich man’s Mervis just by looking at basic details

Top 100 prospect that hit well in AAA but struggled in a <100 PA audition in majors. Questions about defensive fit and long term position. 
 

of course Busch was a consensus top 60 prospect, hit almost 100 points higher in OPS at AAA while Mervis was a fringe top 100 guy in one ranking system. 
 

On one hand top 100 prospects are so hard to get teams to give up these days it makes me wonder why the Dodgers were so willing to part with him but on the other hand they clearly didn’t have a full time spot for him next year and got back a potential top 100 guy but further back in the development process so it helps them out in the short term I guess. 

The margins on who makes the leap from AAA to MLB are so slim, that none of us can with any confidence say it's going to work out or not.  Maybe Busch is Ian Stewart and Ferris goes on to be the pitching version of Lemahieu.  Maybe Busch is Anthony Rizzo and Ferris never even makes it as far as Cashner.  I said it up thread but what matters most here is that this was clearly done with conviction.  There was no urgency to trade Ferris or Hope(quite literally the opposite), Busch is not available for pennies on the dollar because he's toxic to the Dodgers and everyone else.  This doesn't mean the entirety of Jed's tenure is staked in Michael Busch being a hitter(the price paid is not *that* high), but this is an opinionated move and we just have to see if it's right.

It also may be something where we lack the full picture, e.g. if a Morel trade has become feasible and all of a sudden you've basically paperclip traded your way into a different upgrade and made your position-less bat fit the roster better in the process(by being LHH).

[Bertz]

 

Really good call from Brett here.  The Cubs actually know Busch as well as anyone because of Kelly.

[chibears55]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would say that the Cubs probably have a plan here lol. I don't think this was an accident.

Cease and the Sox just settled for 8 mil to avoid Arb, maybe Jed plan is to flip him to the Sox 🤷‍♂️😁

[Bull]

10 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Good grief. He’s not AAAA.

I agree. I'm not saying he's Rizzo, but he's more Rizzo that 4A. His fielding problems aren't glove, they are arm. He's a 1B long term solution.

[Tryptamine]

Can we please not  play the Morel and 3B game with Busch? Busch is not playing 3B and, even by Morel standards, would be really bad there. Jed has proven he highly values defense, they're not going to put a guy out there who would be lucky to be below average.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Let's assume the plan is still Bellinger and Hoskins.  You'd have a lineup of something like

Happ (LF)

Hoskins (1B)

Seiya (RF)

Bellinger (CF)

Swanson (SS)

Hoerner (2B)

Morel (DH)

Busch (3B)

Gomes (C)

No superstar bat, but every spot in that lineup projects north of league average except catcher, and Gomes/Amaya are likely above average offensively by catcher standards.

 

So now they have 2 guys that are better at DH than 3rd base. Maybe 3rd goes to either Bush or Morel and the Cubs hope one can nail it down, at least adequately. The other is DH. Then when Hoskins leaves one of them moves to first. Assuming your scenerio. I don’t hate it. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Man you nod off at work and miss everything. This is a shocker. I am pretty confident the Dodgers will iron-out Ferris' control issues and will be a top prospect next year. Busch has hit everywhere but they also play in hitter-friendly environs. 

 

I like that he had a 72% contact rate in the Majors despite the high K rate and a 50% hard hit rate despite horrid results. Feels like he's gonna figure it out at the MLB level and be a solid hitter. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

13 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Cubs could still come down with two of Bellinger/Hoskins/Chapman/Montgomery

Give me Belli and Montgomery and hope Nicky Two-Strikes stays healthy.

[mul21]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It also may be something where we lack the full picture, e.g. if a Morel trade has become feasible and all of a sudden you've basically paperclip traded your way into a different upgrade and made your position-less bat fit the roster better in the process(by being LHH).

This was my first instinct when it became clear that it was lower level guys going back to the Dodgers.  Are Morel and/or Mervis getting moved in a separate deal to get pitching or trim 40 man spots?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Can we please not  play the Morel and 3B game with Busch? Busch is not playing 3B and, even by Morel standards, would be really bad there. Jed has proven he highly values defense, they're not going to put a guy out there who would be lucky to be below average.

They're fairly different situations.  Morel has had abundant opportunity to play 3B as a professional, and simply has been unplayably bad there and at SS(~25+ errors/150 games).  Busch had never played 3B before last year, so while he certainly didn't take to it like Madrigal did, there's at least the possibility that more reps/instruction could make a difference quickly.

[Irrelevant Dude]

How the Cubs view Busch defensively is a big question to determine where they go from here.

If they see him as a 3B (which seems doubtful based on other comments here), then Hoskins is in play.

If they see him as a 1B, then Hoskins is out but they may be focusing on Chapman instead.

In either event, Morel is probably still a trade candidate, but for who?

[Tryptamine]

This trade does open so many options. So what if Busch is your 1B, you just filled a hole you were expecting to pay 17ish M to Hoskins for. Suddenly adding Bellinger and Chapman becomes financially feasible. That would be a pretty stacked line up.

C- Gomes

1B: Busch

2B: Nico

SS: Dansby

3B: Chapman

RF: Seiya

CF: Bellinger

LF: Happ

DH: Morel

That lineup is almost extremely strong defensively as well, outside of Seiya in RF.

[Rob]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Can we please not  play the Morel and 3B game with Busch? Busch is not playing 3B and, even by Morel standards, would be really bad there. Jed has proven he highly values defense, they're not going to put a guy out there who would be lucky to be below average.

It's possible, if incredibly unlikely, that Counsell decides to try out some Kevin Mitchell defensive alignment. Morel or Busch may be more viable as infielders with Imanaga and his crazy FB tendencies on the mound.

I don't see it as likely, but Counsell is more of a tinkerer. He might like the rare matchup.