Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

about how many wins would you put something like this at?

do we have any chance of reaching 90 projected wins anymore?

The team's 500Ish right now with 4 glaring holes at 1B, 3B, DH, and one SP.  I think if Jed adds more than 10 WAR and fills at least 3 of those holes in the process that's right around a 90 win team

I'll say as someone pretty vocally out on Bellinger and Chapman if Jed manages to play the market so that he pulls either down with a deal that's only 8 figures that'd be huge.  

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Ugh. Let me re-assess my guess from last night a bit:

1. Trade for Bieber/Naylor.  Canario, Triantos + 2 deeper prospects with upside (maybe Ben Brown is needed?). Cubs extend Shane Bieber for 4/$88m shortly after.

2. Trade for a leverage reliever using some prospect depth from the 11-30 range. Mervis makes a lot of sense here

3. Cubs sign Chapman, not Bellinger, to the high AAV/opt out heavy Correa deal. 3/$90m with opt outs every year. 

 

Lineup on OD looks like:

Happ/Suzuki/Naylor/Chapman/Swanson/Morel/Gomes/Madrigal/Tauchmann 

Rotation:

Steele/Bieber/Hendricks/Wicks/Taillon

I think you mean Hoerner, not Madrigal. And that same scenerio could work with Hoskins instead of Chapman, if the Cubs think Morel can handle 3rd. Instead of Chapman at 3rd and Morel at DH, Morel can play 3rd and Hoskins primarily DH. I believe Morel is playing 3rd most days now. Maybe that could be his home. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Rcal10

[gocubs218]

I think a Bieber/Naylor package is pretty likely at this point? If not, I think we would have signed Hoskins by now. 

[Tryptamine]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The team's 500Ish right now with 4 glaring holes at 1B, 3B, DH, and one SP.  I think if Jed adds more than 10 WAR and fills at least 3 of those holes in the process that's right around a 90 win team

I'll say as someone pretty vocally out on Bellinger and Chapman if Jed manages to play the market so that he pulls either down with a deal that's only 8 figures that'd be huge.  

.500 is pretty generous considering what they're down. I know you said .500ish and if I had to guess I'd say 77-78 wins as things stand.

[PeanutPunch33]

They’ll prob re sign Belli, sign Hader, and swing a Dylan Cease trade with the Sox 🙂  

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I can't count. man. I teach social studies for a reason.

 I problem. I only noticed because I have run very similar scenarios to what you did and I neve had Madrigal In the line up. I think we all pretty much agree they need 2 bats and 1 needs to hit from the left side. At least one starting pitcher(preferably 2) and at least one pen arm. Bats are among guys like Naylor, Polanco, Bellinger, Lowe, Chapman, Hoskins, Belt, Alonso, Torres, JD Martinez to name a few.
Pitcher via trade is most likely Bieber. But Cease would be nice. And then there are several young arms as well. Via FA I would hope they are looking more towards Imanaga, Montgomery and Snell. 
I realize some of these guys aren’t even abailable. Just doing best guess as to who could be had. There is also Bichette, Tucker, Vlad, Bergman crazy talk too. 

[PeanutPunch33]

They’ll prob re sign Belli, sign Hader, and swing a Dylan Cease trade with the Sox 🙂  

at the very least if they swing the top 2, and any kind of meaningful trade hard to say this was a bad off season

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

I think a Bieber/Naylor package is pretty likely at this point? If not, I think we would have signed Hoskins by now. 

They can do both. Maybe they are waiting on reports of Morel at 3rd. Or still deciding on him there. If is can handle it Hoskins and Naylor can co-exist. 

[Tryptamine]

Hoyer has proven he values defense highly. I'd find it very hard to believe he's going to move Morel over there when you're most likely outcome is below average defense with a chance at Ryan Braun levels of awful. 

[chibears55]

Michael Wacha

2 yrs  Royals 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Hoyer has proven he values defense highly. I'd find it very hard to believe he's going to move Morel over there when you're most likely outcome is below average defense with a chance at Ryan Braun levels of awful. 

That’s valid. Not going to get into the Morel debate again I totally understand your position on this. Guess we will wait until we see what the team looks like. Maybe instead of Chapman it ends up Polanco. Less years committed. That is ok too. Maybe a bigger deal and it is Lowe. Again, less years committed. I just don’t want them picking Chapman over Haskins/Naylor strictly because they don’t have other options for 3rd base. 
BTW, very similar doubts were here last year when the Cubs talked about working Madrigal at 3rd. Defensively that worked out pretty well. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Rcal10

[gocubs218]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

They can do both. Maybe they are waiting on reports of Morel at 3rd. Or still deciding on him there. If is can handle it Hoskins and Naylor can co-exist. 

Seems like the plan might be to get one of those guys soonish and wait it out and see if someone like Bellinger or Chapman falls into their laps in January.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Hoyer has proven he values defense highly. I'd find it very hard to believe he's going to move Morel over there when you're most likely outcome is below average defense with a chance at Ryan Braun levels of awful. 

I am starting to wonder if the not playing Morel at 3rd thing was a Ross decision and that Counsell is down to try it.

[JBears79]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I am starting to wonder if the not playing Morel at 3rd thing was a Ross decision and that Counsell is down to try it.

Counsell has a track record of giving young players a long leash. I think he will try it. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

10 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Michael Wacha

2 yrs  Royals 

It's nigh time you start checking threads before you post these things. 

[Andy]

48 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Cubs getting outspent by the Royals, I didn't see that coming. I'm kidding.....I hope.

I'm sure there are numbers that tell me I'm wrong, but $16M a year for Wacha doesn't scream missed opportunity to me.

[PeanutPunch33]

For the people that are disappointed in not getting Glasnow, it’s clear now that the cubs would have had to give up morel and maybe more, seeing what they got from the dodgers 

worth it for a guy who will pitch 5 innings every time he goes out there and almost surely miss 1/4 of the season at minimum? 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

For the people that are disappointed in not getting Glasnow, it’s clear now that the cubs would have had to give up morel and maybe more, seeing what they got from the dodgers 

worth it for a guy who will pitch 5 innings every time he goes out there and almost surely miss 1/4 of the season at minimum? 

I don't think Morel would have been in play at all.  The equivalent from us is something more like Assad and Canario.  Maybe even drop from Assad down to Wesneski.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

For the people that are disappointed in not getting Glasnow, it’s clear now that the cubs would have had to give up morel and maybe more, seeing what they got from the dodgers 

worth it for a guy who will pitch 5 innings every time he goes out there and almost surely miss 1/4 of the season at minimum? 

This is not true. Morel is way more valuable than what the Rays got from the Dodgers. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I am starting to wonder if the not playing Morel at 3rd thing was a Ross decision and that Counsell is down to try it.

I keep going back and forth on Counsell being misaligned on Morel(both in terms of 3B willingness and emphasizing versatility after Hawkins/Hoyer both mentioned getting him a single position) means that it's more likely they trade him, more likely he's exclusively a 3B, or more likely that he gets used in a utility role.  My answer changes a couple times a day.

[CubinNY]

10 minutes ago, username said:

This is from an article in The Athletic.  It's horsefeathers maddening to read.  You don't love long deals and prefer shorter ones?  Then go find a GM job with a smaller market organization that HAS to offer those.  We're the freaking Chicago Cubs, we have the financial abilities to go out and compete for top talent (which, by the way, is going to almost ALWAYS require a long deal).  

I've been fairly ambivalent on Jed on the whole, but this horsefeathers logic and overall quote has me wondering if he's ever going to turn this club into a consistent winner.  

It's a philosophy shared by the ownership. On a much more ominous note, Jed is a cut out for the Ricketts. Whoever is running the Cubs is going to say close to the same thing. They believe there is a right way to win. The right way just so happens to also be incredibly less expensive than the wrong way. On one level, I can understand. But on another no, it's horsefeathers asinine and ahistorical. The Cubs, when they won were a combination of young talent and free agents.  

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I keep going back and forth on Counsell being misaligned on Morel(both in terms of 3B willingness and emphasizing versatility after Hawkins/Hoyer both mentioned getting him a single position) means that it's more likely they trade him, more likely he's exclusively a 3B, or more likely that he gets used in a utility role.  My answer changes a couple times a day.

He and his staff in Milwaukee took some of the crappiest defensive catchers in the league and routinely turned them into borderline gold glovers.  He might view turning an athlete the caliber of Morel into a viable 3B as a project he could knock out in a weekend.  And the urgency on the offensive side of the ball goes WAYYYYYY down if you can put Morel at 3rd.

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

He and his staff in Milwaukee took some of the crappiest defensive catchers in the league and routinely turned them into borderline gold glovers.  He might view turning an athlete the caliber of Morel into a viable 3B as a project he could knock out in a weekend.  And the urgency on the offensive side of the ball goes WAYYYYYY down if you can put Morel at 3rd.

Thanks. Somewhere Rcal is wetting himself now.

[imb]

It's almost the weekend so im being optimistic

the reason the dodgers are the Dodgers is because

Big market/access to more money
Farm that consistently produces very good players, giving them financial flexibility
They use that flexibility to target specific stars in trades (then extend them) or FA. 
This keeps their payroll and LT number manageable 

The Cubs currently

Are in a big market with access to more money
A farm that never produces horsefeathers (outside of the magical 2016 run)
Not the same level of financial flexibility because we're overpaying for midtier guys like taillon because we are not developing good depth
Hence, our payroll is more susceptible to getting fucked up through FA because we can't yet supplement the roster with cheap depth

Out of all the big acquistions this year, 2 (ohtani, yamamato) clearly do not have any interest in the cubs, and Soto required something of an overpay in prospects (which i would be willing to do, but i imagine the cubs weren't because...)

They want Counsell's first year to be about integrating prospects to see if he can get more out of the MLB readyish guys, banking on development from the prospect tier that's still a year or two away, and figuring out how far away they truly are. 

My guess is they don't spend until the farm is producing guys, and then they go and try to make one or two big splashes in FA to push the team over the top. 

If you look back to the only success the franchise has ever had, it came when they were producing stars (Rizzo, KB, Javy) and depth guys like Soler or whatever. Once those guys were cooking at the MLB level, they spent on Heyward (Jed's lament) Lester and Zobrist then filled it in with trade deadline acquistions to fill holes.

By Monday i'll be in a bad mood again and be much less forgiving but for 72 hours this is how i feel

[Tryptamine]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/jesus-luzardo-drawing-trade-interest.html

The ask would be very high, but this is the kind of guy you could slot in behind Steele for the next few years. Health is an issue, but the results the last 2 years speak for themselves.