Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Jason Ross]

Rosenthal today: 

"Teams are inquiring about Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski, a pair of righties the Cubs acquired in separate trades for relievers David Robertson and Scott Effross at the 2022 deadline. The Cubs are not necessarily inclined to move either. But like the Giants, their willingness might increase if they add a veteran starter.

The improvement of the Cubs’ farm system, ranked sixth by Baseball America at midseason, creates newfound possibilities. To upgrade its offense and/or pitching, the team might be open to parting with young pitchers besides Brown and Wesneski as well as infielder/outfielder James Triantos, the Arizona Fall League offensive player of the year. Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, right-hander Cade Horton and shortstop Matt Shaw might be the only Cubs’ prospects who are untouchable.

As with so many other clubs, much depends on what the Cubs accomplish — or fail to accomplish — in free agency. Ten days before Christmas, so much remains unresolved. But one way or another, trades are coming, all across the industry. It just might take a little more time."

[Cuzi]

I feel like opt outs is becoming a fan fiction.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Are any other teams even linked to Chapman? Feels like fait accompli. I'm not necessarily enthused by the idea but I think it's safe to say that he has a valuable floor established, and that is really what seems to concern Hoyer the most. 

[gocubs218]

5 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I feel like opt outs is becoming a fan fiction.

Oh yeah? 

 

[LBiittner]

25 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Ugh. Let me re-assess my guess from last night a bit:

1. Trade for Bieber/Naylor.  Canario, Triantos + 2 deeper prospects with upside (maybe Ben Brown is needed?). Cubs extend Shane Bieber for 4/$88m shortly after.

2. Trade for a leverage reliever using some prospect depth from the 11-30 range. Mervis makes a lot of sense here

3. Cubs sign Chapman, not Bellinger, to the high AAV/opt out heavy Correa deal. 3/$90m with opt outs every year. 

 

Lineup on OD looks like:

Happ/Suzuki/Naylor/Chapman/Swanson/Morel/Gomes/Madrigal/Tauchmann 

Rotation:

Steele/Bieber/Hendricks/Wicks/Taillon

Did Hoerner die?

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Did Hoerner die?

I can't count. man. I teach social studies for a reason.

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I can't count. man. I teach social studies for a reason.

Hahaha, I just don't want madrigal weak ass bat everyday

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Are any other teams even linked to Chapman? Feels like fait accompli. I'm not necessarily enthused by the idea but I think it's safe to say that he has a valuable floor established, and that is really what seems to concern Hoyer the most. 

Toronto and San Francisco remain teams I think make sense. That said, there's a ton of parrels to him and Swanson and it's hard to ignore.

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Toronto and San Francisco remain teams I think make sense. That said, there's a ton of parrels to him and Swanson and it's hard to ignore.

Only Swanson didn't suck for 3/4 of a season before giving him his contract. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Hahaha, I just don't want madrigal weak ass bat everyday

Yeah, I went with the "play two 3b, and no 2b" lineup. Good thing they didn't hire me to manage the Cubs.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

Only Swanson didn't suck for 3/4 of a season before giving him his contract. 

He didn't. Though on the flip side, the batted ball data on Chapman is really good, so a situation where Chapman is a 115 wRC+ hitter is pretty decently on the table for the next 2-3 years. And it wasn't like Swanson wasn't one year removed from a 99 wRC+ (which, I think we all kind of forget when we look at his 2023...he had a 104wRC+ last year and was kind of very close to his 2021 level). 

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Only Swanson didn't suck for 3/4 of a season before giving him his contract. 

Even with that he's never played at a pace below 3.5 fwar. That is still a pretty valuable player. 

 

 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Even with that he's never played at a pace below 3.5 fwar. That is still a pretty valuable player. 

 

 

For some teams, I completely agree, but the Cubs badly need offensive production, not more guys with league average bats and plus gloves.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If I had to guess, I think the plan is roughly along these lines:

• Trade for Bieber and maybe like Karinchak.  That gives you your rotation stability, gives you RP upside, doesn't commit large dollars, years, or even likely trade assets.  Something like Canario and Arias is probably not so far away?
• Also get a FA SP, but more on your terms.  Imanaga is the deluxe version of this but we've seen names like Wacha and Martin Perez connected at least once, and in that permutation I think they're as much to give you permission to trade from the Wesneski/Assad/Brown group as anything
• Sign a FA RP to a 1 year deal.  If you've gambled on upside with Karinchak then maybe someone like Suter is the pairing?  He might be as "successful" an RP you can get to sign a 1 year deal
• Wait out Bellinger and Chapman's markets, with the intent of making sure you get one.
• Get a secondary bat.  This is where it depends on how far the Bellinger/Chapman markets come down and who your second SP is, because there's the range from signing Hoskins to trading for Polanco to playing in the JDM/Belt FA waters, to some type of off the radar trade(Alonso?  Moncada?)

 

The order may change, and Imanaga and Bieber might end up being mutually exclusive for various reasons(they want to invest more in the offense, the market for SP heats up more once you get one, etc).  But that feels like the rough contour of what they're aiming for.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

For some teams, I completely agree, but the Cubs badly need offensive production, not more guys with league average bats and plus gloves.

I don't disagree with this. Chapman feels like the wrong player for what the Cubs need. With that said, I can hear the argument being that the Cubs specialize in ground ball pitchers so by getting Chapman and his glove they can better maximize their pitching staff. This keeps the ball in Wrigley on those windy days where it blows out and Chapman's batted ball profile makes him a good fit to bounce back. 

I don't like it, but it feels like I've seen this movie before.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If I had to guess, I think the plan is roughly along these lines:

• Trade for Bieber and maybe like Karinchak.  That gives you your rotation stability, gives you RP upside, doesn't commit large dollars, years, or even likely trade assets.  Something like Canario and Arias is probably not so far away?
• Also get a FA SP, but more on your terms.  Imanaga is the deluxe version of this but we've seen names like Wacha and Martin Perez connected at least once, and in that permutation I think they're as much to give you permission to trade from the Wesneski/Assad/Brown group as anything
• Sign a FA RP to a 1 year deal.  If you've gambled on upside with Karinchak then maybe someone like Suter is the pairing?  He might be as "successful" an RP you can get to sign a 1 year deal
• Wait out Bellinger and Chapman's markets, with the intent of making sure you get one.
• Get a secondary bat.  This is where it depends on how far the Bellinger/Chapman markets come down and who your second SP is, because there's the range from signing Hoskins to trading for Polanco to playing in the JDM/Belt FA waters, to some type of off the radar trade(Alonso?  Moncada?)

 

The order may change, and Imanaga and Bieber might end up being mutually exclusive for various reasons(they want to invest more in the offense, the market for SP heats up more once you get one, etc).  But that feels like the rough contour of what they're aiming for.

That's a pretty disappointing offseason, in my book. I know I've been captain pouty lately, but I just can't help but be unenthused by that team. It's a team that's better than last year but is so far away from being anything worth being overly excited about. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That's a pretty disappointing offseason, in my book. I know I've been captain pouty lately, but I just can't help but be unenthused by that team. It's a team that's better than last year but is so far away from being anything worth being overly excited about. 

There's a wide enough range of outcomes even in that list that I'd have to see how it played out specifically.  Bieber/Wacha/Chapman/Belt fits the above and would be a large disappointment.  Bieber/Imanaga/Bellinger/Hoskins also does and while not what I would've drawn up certainly makes them materially better and likely NLC favorites.

[17 Seconds]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If I had to guess, I think the plan is roughly along these lines:

• Trade for Bieber and maybe like Karinchak.  That gives you your rotation stability, gives you RP upside, doesn't commit large dollars, years, or even likely trade assets.  Something like Canario and Arias is probably not so far away?
• Also get a FA SP, but more on your terms.  Imanaga is the deluxe version of this but we've seen names like Wacha and Martin Perez connected at least once, and in that permutation I think they're as much to give you permission to trade from the Wesneski/Assad/Brown group as anything
• Sign a FA RP to a 1 year deal.  If you've gambled on upside with Karinchak then maybe someone like Suter is the pairing?  He might be as "successful" an RP you can get to sign a 1 year deal
• Wait out Bellinger and Chapman's markets, with the intent of making sure you get one.
• Get a secondary bat.  This is where it depends on how far the Bellinger/Chapman markets come down and who your second SP is, because there's the range from signing Hoskins to trading for Polanco to playing in the JDM/Belt FA waters, to some type of off the radar trade(Alonso?  Moncada?)

 

The order may change, and Imanaga and Bieber might end up being mutually exclusive for various reasons(they want to invest more in the offense, the market for SP heats up more once you get one, etc).  But that feels like the rough contour of what they're aiming for.

about how many wins would you put something like this at?

do we have any chance of reaching 90 projected wins anymore?

[LBiittner]

30 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, I went with the "play two 3b, and no 2b" lineup. Good thing they didn't hire me to manage the Cubs.

I'd rather  u be general manager

[PeanutPunch33]

Unpopular opinion but I actually think Jed is a great GM and way better than Theo, even if the WS hasn’t followed yet.  There is a reason that this team has the type of rotation and young pitching it hasn’t had in 20 years with the ability to add even more.  He’s drafted great (Horton, Shaw , Wicks are slam dunk type picks) , made solid trades (Armstrong, Caissie, Alcantara, Brown)

None of those guys except Wicks have done anything in big leagues yet for the cubs, yet they were still 1 game away from the playoffs last year because of that aforementioned pitching depth.   Also fixed Steele, also got Counsel 

[gocubs218]

Another fan fiction opt out 

 

[17 Seconds]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

Unpopular opinion but I actually think Jed is a great GM and way better than Theo, even if the WS hasn’t followed yet.  There is a reason that this team has the type of rotation and young pitching it hasn’t had in 20 years with the ability to add even more.  He’s drafted great (Horton, Shaw , Wicks are slam dunk type picks) , made solid trades (Armstrong, Caissie, Alcantara, Brown)

None of those guys except Wicks have done anything in big leagues yet for the cubs, yet they were still 1 game away from the playoffs last year because of that aforementioned pitching depth.   Also fixed Steele, also got Counsel 

jed would never build a 100 win team without massive luck, and would have never had the courage to trade gleyber for chapman. 

despite theo's core falling off a cliff early, i bet that his group of homegrown guys ends up way better than jed's

 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Another fan fiction opt out 

 

Yes, I don't know what world that dude lives in

[Tryptamine]

Cubs getting outspent by the Royals, I didn't see that coming. I'm kidding.....I hope.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Have to believe they are still in on a Bieber trade, or is Hoyer going to dumpster dive and take a shot at one of the criminals. Market is drying up