Cubs offseason chit chat...

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I know everyone is upset and pissed about what has been happening. But if they do as 1908 suggested and get Bieber in a trade, sign a solid starting pitcher as well as a pen arm and Hoskins and Bellinger they actually will have a good team who would most likely be the favorite in the central with a expected win total of 87-90 wins. It is a far cry from what I wanted them to do, but they will be good. I guess Bellinger would play all outfield positions and first base. If Morel can actually handle 3rd and PCA is at least not terrible with the bat they have a chance to be better than a 90 win team. 

And if they don't do JACK at least we can look back here at a million written words of our projections on what they might do during this offseason?

[CubbyBlue2008]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I know everyone is upset and pissed about what has been happening. But if they do as 1908 suggested and get Bieber in a trade, sign a solid starting pitcher as well as a pen arm and Hoskins and Bellinger they actually will have a good team who would most likely be the favorite in the central with a expected win total of 87-90 wins. It is a far cry from what I wanted them to do, but they will be good. I guess Bellinger would play all outfield positions and first base. If Morel can actually handle 3rd and PCA is at least not terrible with the bat they have a chance to be better than a 90 win team. 

You’re probably right. It just feels like a team that runs into a Braves or Dodgers in the postseason and gets boat-raced though. Just due to difference in Star power.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I know everyone is upset and pissed about what has been happening. But if they do as 1908 suggested and get Bieber in a trade, sign a solid starting pitcher as well as a pen arm and Hoskins and Bellinger they actually will have a good team who would most likely be the favorite in the central with a expected win total of 87-90 wins. It is a far cry from what I wanted them to do, but they will be good. I guess Bellinger would play all outfield positions and first base. If Morel can actually handle 3rd and PCA is at least not terrible with the bat they have a chance to be better than a 90 win team. 

The Bieber/Imanaga/Hoskins/Bellinger offseason would definitely make them a better team than last year, and fit within what we expect them to be able to spend if our understanding of the likely FA costs are close.  The issue I would have is that right now they have done 0 of the 4 and this is a plan without many contingencies before you start losing a fair amount of the certainty/benefit from those 4 names.  In other words, it's a narrow path considering you are 0% of the way there.

 

There's so few leaks that come from Jed's FO that it's hard to get a handle on what else there is.  I have to think that there's something more substantial on the trade market that they're pursuing, whether that's an expanded Bieber deal, or a SP from Seattle or Cease, or even Alonso since his name has come up again in indirect ways.  Having this much financial wiggle room and betting it on being able to do something like the above is fine when you can pivot away from it when you don't go 4 for 4, but at least in FA there's not a ton else they can do that helps and would make good use of that money.

[JHBulls]

29 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

I'm sure he could have gotten as much from the Mets or others

I am sure he could have but he didn’t. Maybe the FO did lie to him to get him on board and that would be this club in a nutshell. 
 

27 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

 Resources don't matter if you don't use them. He left a team that has been better than the Cubs for the past half decade, have a top tier farm including a league MVP potential prospect locked up long term, and that farm will get even better should they decide to move on from Burnes and Adames. 

 

Right, the Cubs resources to be a better team aren’t being used. But the resources to pay Counsell $40 million has been used and maybe thats all Craig cared about. It’s no different to a FA taking the biggest offer with a loser instead of less to go to a winner. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JHBulls

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

I’d like if they could grab Bellinger, Hoskins, and trade for Cease. I know Bieber costs less, but I don’t think it’s impactful enough.

If the supposed ask on Cease from Baltimore was legit, hard hard pass. if I remember right it was Mayo and Ortiz which mlb has ranked as #27 and #50. That'd be not to far off from PCA and Shaw.

[UMFan83]

35 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

 $40 million over 5 years is a hell of an offer to turn down. Money helps in a big way and all Counsell needed to do was leave a division rival with less resources. 

Yeah by far the largest contract for a manager in baseball history and a desire to stay in the Midwest. Plus while we are all bitching about not playing with the big boys the Cubs still have a very good farm system and do spend money, just not like the other big market clubs

[JHBulls]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Yeah by far the largest contract for a manager in baseball history and a desire to stay in the Midwest. Plus while we are all bitching about not playing with the big boys the Cubs still have a very good farm system and do spend money, just not like the other big market clubs

Yep, this FO will never shop in the top end of town. It still doesn’t mean producing a top farm system and going to a Dansby level contract won’t put a very good team on the field. Just don’t expect $300 million contracts to be handed out. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JHBulls

[CubbyBlue2008]

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If the supposed ask on Cease from Baltimore was legit, hard hard pass. if I remember right it was Mayo and Ortiz which mlb has ranked as #27 and #50. That'd be not to far off from PCA and Shaw.

Yeah I get it. I’m just trying to get impact talent on the MLB roster and he’d be a perfect fit. We won’t get into a bidding war though, so I doubt we get him.

[Sammy Sofa]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

why did counsell choose to come here? 

Money.

[Tryptamine]

I mean, when you think about it, Counsell is pretty much a genius move for Hoyer/Ricketts. It gives the impression they're trying and builds hype around the team for far less money then it would take to sign a star player and on top of that, he's the kind of coach that has historically milked the best out of some mediocre cheap rosters. 

[17 Seconds]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Sofa said:

Money.

well yeah, I've just gotta imagine he could have gotten that elsewhere. he was hot horsefeathers going into this offseason

I'm being overly negative though, there is still a lot to like here

Edited December 15, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[Transmogrified Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean, when you think about it, Counsell is pretty much a genius move for Hoyer/Ricketts. It gives the impression they're trying and builds hype around the team for far less money then it would take to sign a star player and on top of that, he's the kind of coach that has historically milked the best out of some mediocre cheap rosters. 

Anyone who is obsessive enough to be hyped about the Counsell hire is also gonna be all the more disappointed or upset if no substantial moves came to fruition.  It's a move that raises expectations instead of lowering them and shines a brighter light on the team's roster, not some machiavellian scheme to avoid spending more on payroll.

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Anyone who is obsessive enough to be hyped about the Counsell hire is also gonna be all the more disappointed or upset if no substantial moves came to fruition.  It's a move that raises expectations instead of lowering them and shines a brighter light on the team's roster, not some machiavellian scheme to avoid spending more on payroll.

This also applies to pursuing Ohtani IMO.

[Rex Buckingham]

41 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

well yeah, I've just gotta imagine he could have gotten that elsewhere. he was hot horsefeathers going into this offseason

I'm being overly negative though, there is still a lot to like here

Yeah, but the pressure from ownership is basically only to be competitive in a weak division. The Mets may have paid him similarly, but Cohen isn't going to be as easy to satisfy as Ricketts, and I'm sure he'd rather compete with Mil/Stl/Cin than Atl/Phi

[Randall Simon]

"Horsefeathers" is the most popular word on this forum! Lol

[Layoutman]

30 minutes ago, Randall Simon said:

"Horsefeathers" is the most popular word on this forum! Lol

It perfectly describes this off season so far to date.

[JHBulls]

35 minutes ago, Randall Simon said:

"Horsefeathers" is the most popular word on this forum! Lol

It’s the filter for any swear word. Except clusterf… for some reason lol.

[Randall Simon]

That makes a lot more horsefeathers sense! 

[LBiittner]

Sorry more mlb related.

Last week yankees signed ex-cub Billy McKinney to minor league deal. Less than a week later they trade Billy McKinney to the Pirates for international bonus pool money.

Am I missing something?  Did the Yankees just end up getting free international bonus pool money?

[Bertz]

Quote

The ideal scenario for Hoyer involves being able to make some trades to bring in talent and upgrade various areas of the roster. Then, someone like Bellinger or Chapman ends up falling to the Cubs on a more palatable deal than what they’re asking for now. Rival executives believe this is a plausible scenario, particularly with Chapman, because they are looked at as very good everyday players who want to be paid like truly elite players.

Via Sharma and Mooney this AM

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Via Sharma and Mooney this AM

i vomited

Edited December 15, 2023 by CubinNY

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Via Sharma and Mooney this AM

Ugh. Let me re-assess my guess from last night a bit:

1. Trade for Bieber/Naylor.  Canario, Triantos + 2 deeper prospects with upside (maybe Ben Brown is needed?). Cubs extend Shane Bieber for 4/$88m shortly after.

2. Trade for a leverage reliever using some prospect depth from the 11-30 range. Mervis makes a lot of sense here

3. Cubs sign Chapman, not Bellinger, to the high AAV/opt out heavy Correa deal. 3/$90m with opt outs every year. 

 

Lineup on OD looks like:

Happ/Suzuki/Naylor/Chapman/Swanson/Morel/Gomes/Madrigal/Tauchmann 

Rotation:

Steele/Bieber/Hendricks/Wicks/Taillon

Edited December 15, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Cuzi]

Hoyer has his favorite proverb hanging above his bedroom door and he slaps it every day as he walks out for good luck... "Good things come to those who wait"

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Ugh. Let me re-assess my guess from last night a bit:

1. Trade for Bieber/Naylor.  Canario, Triantos + 2 deeper prospects with upside. Cubs extend Shane Bieber for 4/$88m shortly after.

2. Trade for a leverage reliever using some prospect depth from the 11-30 range. Mervis makes a lot of sense here

3. Cubs sign Chapman, not Bellinger, to the high AAV/opt out heavy Correa deal. 3/$90m with opt outs every year. 

 

Lineup on OD looks like:

Happ/Suzuki/Naylor/Chapman/Swanson/Morel/Gomes/Madrigal/Tauchmann 

Rotation:

Steele/Bieber/Hendricks/Wicks/Taillon

If Hoyer gives Chapman 30M a year, I'm out.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

If Hoyer gives Chapman 30M a year, I'm out.

I think that's the exact kind of deal he wants to give.

"“I’ve been pretty open, I don’t love the idea of long deals,” Hoyer said. “It’s hard to see into the future that well. You’re betting on human beings with bones and ligaments and all those different things. But certainly there’s times when a player’s talent (makes) it make sense to do that. So, yeah, in theory, you’d love to keep deals shorter. If you have to pay a little more per year, I think it makes sense to do that, to make your future that much more nimble. But there are times when it makes sense to (go longer).”" 

So he goes high on the AAV, lots of opt outs. It's exactly how he sees things.