Bears Week 5 vs Commanders, Thursday at 7:15pm CST, Amazon and probably local TV in Chicago

[UMFan83]

Not sure where Jersey is.  It's possible that he tried to post this thread and the forum broke as it has been doing the last couple of days.  Theres a 70% chance that the board will also break when I post this and I'm not sure if I'll have the willpower to keep trying.  But figured since this is a Thursday game, the thread should be created.

Anyways, if this does post, the Bears are 6.5 point dogs to a Washington team that has been interesting.  Close wins over Arizona and Denver, 2 teams who suck, followed by a dismantling by the Bills and then an OT loss in Philadelphia.  Anyways, I'm sure they will wipe the floor with us and we will continue to scream for firings during the magical "mini bye".

[Brian707]

Bears lose but cover. 24-20

[WrigleyField 22]

JT doesn't have doom porn this week but he's still releasing a Justin Fields feature film

 

I missed the first 3 quarters Sunday and haven't yet been able to replay. May just watch this instead lol

 

 

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

JT doesn't have doom porn this week but he's still releasing a Justin Fields feature film

 

I missed the first 3 quarters Sunday and haven't yet been able to replay. May just watch this instead lol

 

 

It’s Patreon only unfortunately. I might just pay the $5 to see what he says and then cancel lol

[BigbadB]

Washington is good at pressuring the QB. Howell is decent if he is given time to throw. 

Recipe for disaster. I also think that Eberflus is losing or has already lost this team and I fully expect Poles to try to save his own job by firing him Friday morning at the latest.

I've got tickets to see Robert Cray Thursday night, so after I watch the replay on Friday morning, then I expect to see the announcement.

[UMFan83]

 

[CubinNY]

Lol, I’m at a sports bar for lunch and one of the TV screens has Super Bowl odds up. The Bears are not even on the board. 

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Lol, I’m at a sports bar for lunch and one of the TV screens has Super Bowl odds up. The Bears are not even on the board. 

If you like lighting money on fire:

Circa Sports has 2000-1 and Caesars 500-1

Next lowest is the Panthers at 1000-1 and 400-1

[BigSlick]

We're sadly back in the same position of just hoping Fields looks pretty good because there's very little of interest to think about for the rest of the season. 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Offensive line is getting healthy.  Fields played a basically perfect 3 quarters of football last week before the defense remembered they don't have to run soft man against him.

There's just enough here to have something stupid happen like play ourselves out of the top pick or commit to Fields for year 4.

[UMFan83]

Interesting stuff from Peter King

Edit: Nevermind, actually hearing the interview it sounds more like speculation than anything informed

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by UMFan83

[minnesotacubsfan]

If JF continues to play well they won’t let go of anyone until at least the end of season 

[WrigleyField 22]

Did a deep dive into the 37 mid-year coach firings since 2000.

And there's a really (kind of intuitive) but rarely talked about reason that at least partially explains why the Bears probably haven't had a mid-year coach firing in recent history.  Of course most of the first 63 years of the franchise, Halas was simply not firing himself mid-year.  But recent history at least theres 1 seemingly strong indicator (besides the obvious W-L)

 

Accepting guesses.

[jersey cubs fan]

I’m accepting answers 

[WrigleyField 22]

11 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I’m accepting answers 

That's not very fun.

[minnesotacubsfan]

7 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Did a deep dive into the 37 mid-year coach firings since 2000.

And there's a really (kind of intuitive) but rarely talked about reason that at least partially explains why the Bears probably haven't had a mid-year coach firing in recent history.  Of course most of the first 63 years of the franchise, Halas was simply not firing himself mid-year.  But recent history at least theres 1 seemingly strong indicator (besides the obvious W-L)

 

Accepting guesses.

 

your mom

[WrigleyField 22]

Well raw guessed it in Twitter so I'll share.

 

Most in-season firings happen with a GM in place who is in his role into at least the next year.  It's almost never done with a GM in place who's also about to lose his job.  So Nagy and Trestman aren't unusual by that criteria.

 

26*/37 were fired with a GM who was in place through the next season (*technically Whaley in Buffalo only made it through 2017 draft, but in counting that as he was there to hire next coach). 

5 the Coaches were the De facto GM and often someone in house was ready to be GM (like Kelly-Roseman in Philly)

So just 6 were fired with a GM who also was replaced by the end of the year.  And 5 of those 6 were 1-6 or worse (avg 0.4-4.6 record).  Nagy/Trestman also didn't have those types of starts.

Ditka firing also coincided with GM change 

Of the firings where the GM wasn't also being shown door:

Lovie was obviously in a playoff hunt until last game before being fired.

Jauron you can argue maybe should have been fired as he had the classic slow start. But ironically, he turned it around and kept team competetive, finishing with 7-9 record. 

Then Wanny really there isn't much justification. Bad record. Poor start. Don't remember if locker room was a horsefeathers show or not.  But FO definitely was a horsefeathers show as that ended up being Mike McCaskey's final ride as Pres before horsefeathers up McGinnis hiring and being pushed aside.

Then everything else before that was Halas and he was the coach himself for like 60% of those seasons.  Why he never wanted to fire mid year when he wasn't the coach?  Probably because he was cheap. Or maybe he respected the role too much.  Either way, not sure that is still a factor today.

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

Oh and then there's also John Fox:

So you could make argument he fits criteria. But I think it's also important to look at what is gained.

 

1) getting a different look at your roster.  Given both of Fox's coordinators had control I don't know if this would be a big factor.  Pace wasn't gonna get a new look at his O or D.

2) getting a look at a interim coach. Now maybe you can argue Fangio here should have gotten look, but I think Pace always knew he was gonna go O anyways. And we can probably guess he had an inkling he may want to keep Fangio on and an interim tag could burn that opportunity.  And as it is, that's exactly what happened. Also wasn't like Fox lost locker room or got off to a a slow start, two common criteria.

 

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Well raw guessed it in Twitter so I'll share.

 

Most in-season firings happen with a GM in place who is in his role into at least the next year.  It's almost never done with a GM in place who's also about to lose his job.  So Nagy and Trestman aren't unusual by that criteria.

 

26*/37 were fired with a GM who was in place through the next season (*technically Whaley in Buffalo only made it through 2017 draft, but in counting that as he was there to hire next coach). 

5 the Coaches were the De facto GM and often someone in house was ready to be GM (like Kelly-Roseman in Philly)

So just 6 were fired with a GM who also was replaced by the end of the year.  And 5 of those 6 were 1-6 or worse (avg 0.4-4.6 record).  Nagy/Trestman also didn't have those types of starts.

Ditka firing also coincided with GM change 

Of the firings where the GM wasn't also being shown door:

Lovie was obviously in a playoff hunt until last game before being fired.

Jauron you can argue maybe should have been fired as he had the classic slow start. But ironically, he turned it around and kept team competetive, finishing with 7-9 record. 

Then Wanny really there isn't much justification. Bad record. Poor start. Don't remember if locker room was a horsefeathers show or not.  But FO definitely was a horsefeathers show as that ended up being Mike McCaskey's final ride as Pres before horsefeathers up McGinnis hiring and being pushed aside.

Then everything else before that was Halas and he was the coach himself for like 60% of those seasons.  Why he never wanted to fire mid year when he wasn't the coach?  Probably because he was cheap. Or maybe he respected the role too much.  Either way, not sure that is still a factor today.

 

In this case maybe we want to see Eberflus finish out the year.  On the whole, Poles has been a failure and really has not earned another year to pick his QB, etc.  Yes, the Bears roster was in a terrible state and punting on 2022 is justifiable but, 2023 with the resources at hand, he struggled to meet cap minimum and basically ignored the DL.  Going instead for some goofed up idea of building the defense from back to front.  I know there's data suggesting such an approach can work, such as the Chiefs but, didn't they already have Chris Jones in place?

[Tryptamine]

I'm nearly positive Trestman is gone, but I'd actually be fairly surprised if they cut ties with Poles. It's not that I think he's doing a good job, I just don't think he has been as glaringly awful as Trestman. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm nearly positive Trestman is gone, but I'd actually be fairly surprised if they cut ties with Poles. It's not that I think he's doing a good job, I just don't think he has been as glaringly awful as Trestman. 

Can confirm.

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Can confirm.

Oops, Eberflus

Edited October 4, 2023 by Tryptamine

[gflore34]

I previously mentioned the Bears hiring Deion Sanders while drafting Caleb Williams.  I forgot about Lincoln Riley, how about a package deal of him and Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. for the Bears?  He got Williams to follow him to USC, although, to be fair, I don't believe transferring to USC was all that hard of a sell.  Point is he'd probably be able to sell Williams on the Bears most especially, assuming the Bears hire him first, if he's not going to be the HC at USC in 2024.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Going into 2022, it was reasonable to take a breather year to reset your cap situation and stop trading away picks.  But that didn't *have* to mean full scorched earth. That was Poles' choice and he gets to live with the results.

I really, really want to like Poles.  His value approach to accumulating picks is 100% the right move.   There's a very plausible world where the Carolina pick ends up first overall and Bryce Young for Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Darnell Wright and a few miscellaneous picks is a franchise-defining haul.

But he makes so many bizarre positional priority decisions that are directly destroying the team.

 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

In this case maybe we want to see Eberflus finish out the year.  On the whole, Poles has been a failure and really has not earned another year to pick his QB, etc.  Yes, the Bears roster was in a terrible state and punting on 2022 is justifiable but, 2023 with the resources at hand, he struggled to meet cap minimum and basically ignored the DL.  Going instead for some goofed up idea of building the defense from back to front.  I know there's data suggesting such an approach can work, such as the Chiefs but, didn't they already have Chris Jones in place?

Well again, 5 of the 6 where the GM did ultimately follow the HC out the door were really poor starts, of the 0-5 variety (roughly).  So a Flus firing could still be accompanied by a Poles firing and be "normal".  But perhaps be a last ditch effort by someone to change the direction.

But more to the fact where many got very impatient with Nagy/Trestman. They actually started out middling not 0-fer. And then they faded hard, but by that point the GM seat was also red hot and yea, suddenly the benefits of getting an extended look at players in.s new setting or a interim coach is entirely moot because the GM making those evals isn't in the door.  The whole thing can burn down... once you're likely to being in a new GM, it's all gonna get tuned over anyways.