Blackhawks 2023-24 Season - Bedard luck this year

[Y2J]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

*Who* is leaving millions on the table?

You keep talking about the NHL like it's a single person, but it's not.

No, I’m talking about the NHL as it operates as a joint venture.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 minutes ago, Y2J said:

No, I’m talking about the NHL as it operates as a joint venture.

But what does that mean?

I keep giving you really specific details and numbers about how the NHL operates, and you keep trying to talk as vaguely as possible.

 

Your conspiracy theory requires a lot of very real, very rich people voluntarily accepting less money, which is not something very rich people are known for doing, especially not so that one of their rival rich people can get richer.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Y2J]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

But what does that mean?

I keep giving you really specific details and numbers about how the NHL operates, and you keep trying to talk as vaguely as possible.

 

Your conspiracy theory requires a lot of very real, very rich people voluntarily accepting less money, which is not something very rich people are known for doing, especially not so that one of their rival rich people can get richer.

I don’t even know where you pulled your numbers from. You’re asking me to take your word for it without citation. I’m also at work and unfortunately pretty limited on what my phone can handle. I don’t even get good reception in here. 
 

I’m not sure what confuses you on the NHL operating as a joint venture. That seems rather self-explanatory. 

[Tim]

I don't know about the others, but I basically made two arguments:

1. your demonstrated grasp of basic statistics is pretty flawed
2. conspiracy theories are (almost) always wrong

Others have detailed #1 far more than I did in my initial post. But you insisting that it is *obvious* that it was a conspiracy theory that landed Bedard in Chicago is *obviously* taking the exactly wrong default hypothesis. Since conspiracy theories are (almost) always wrong, the default should be that there was no conspiracy until overwhelming evidence proves otherwise. Other than the fact that Bedard ended up in Chicago, you've shown exactly zero evidence to support your claim. 

Sorry, you used McDavid ending up in Edmonton as evidence. Which, actually, is not evidence that anything was rigged this year. But it also contradicts any logic for *why* they NHL would rig things for Chicago. 

[Y2J]

So, let’s rewind back to 2005 and forget the 2023 draft for a moment. Do you believe the NHL awarded Crosby to the Penguins?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

16 minutes ago, Y2J said:

I don’t even know where you pulled your numbers from. You’re asking me to take your word for it without citation. I’m also at work and unfortunately pretty limited on what my phone can handle. I don’t even get good reception in here. 
 

I’m not sure what confuses you on the NHL operating as a joint venture. That seems rather self-explanatory. 

I mean, ideally, you would have the slightest idea how NHL finances work *before* making  these posts.  Taking my word for it is just my second preference.

[Tim]

10 minutes ago, Y2J said:

So, let’s rewind back to 2005 and forget the 2023 draft for a moment. Do you believe the NHL awarded Crosby to the Penguins?

I have no idea. 2005 was during the dark days of hockey for me. I really wasn't paying any attention at the time. Given that the vast majority of conspiracy theories are bs, though, my default position would be no. There are simply too many competing interests, too many people involved to keep it quiet for 18 years. Somebody would get drunk and brag about it. Someone would have had that decision go against them and would air their grievance to the public. Somebody would talk. 

There's also too much for the league to lose. Yes, one key franchise could have folded. Maybe. But if they get caught, then the whole league probably goes under. They could go to jail. The costs for getting caught are way too high compared to the rewards for making it work.

That said, I don't know if they did the drawings in front of representatives of all 32 teams plus independent observers back then, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

7 minutes ago, Y2J said:

So, let’s rewind back to 2005 and forget the 2023 draft for a moment. Do you believe the NHL awarded Crosby to the Penguins?

Let me flip that on you. 

Let's take it for granted that the NHL gifted Crosby to the Penguins in order to salvage a foundering franchise in what is currently the 26th largest media market (I don't have the market-size listings for 2005 on hand).

Phoenix is the 10th-largest media market and is severely foundering in the same way Pittsburgh was. If they wanted Crosby in Pittsburgh for the reasons you've given, it would make infinitely more sense to want Bedard in Arizona for the exact same reasons.

You're playing this insane "heads I win, tales you lose" game where no matter what happens, it just gets glommed into the bigger conspiracy, even if it contradicts elemetns already in the conspiracy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

4 minutes ago, Tim said:

I have no idea. 2005 was during the dark days of hockey for me. I really wasn't paying any attention at the time. Given that the vast majority of conspiracy theories are bs, though, my default position would be no. There are simply too many competing interests, too many people involved to keep it quiet for 18 years. Somebody would get drunk and brag about it. Someone would have had that decision go against them and would air their grievance to the public. Somebody would talk. 

There's also too much for the league to lose. Yes, one key franchise could have folded. Maybe. But if they get caught, then the whole league probably goes under. They could go to jail. The costs for getting caught are way too high compared to the rewards for making it work.

That said, I don't know if they did the drawings in front of representatives of all 32 teams plus independent observers back then, though.

The 2005 lottery was, in fact, done behind closed doors and unverifiable.  Pittsburgh was one of the teams that had the best odds of winning it, but it can't be dismissed on that level the same way the 2023 can.

[minnesotacubsfan]

20 minutes ago, Tim said:

I don't know about the others, but I basically made two arguments:

1. your demonstrated grasp of basic statistics is pretty flawed
2. conspiracy theories are (almost) always wrong

Others have detailed #1 far more than I did in my initial post. But you insisting that it is *obvious* that it was a conspiracy theory that landed Bedard in Chicago is *obviously* taking the exactly wrong default hypothesis. Since conspiracy theories are (almost) always wrong, the default should be that there was no conspiracy until overwhelming evidence proves otherwise. Other than the fact that Bedard ended up in Chicago, you've shown exactly zero evidence to support your claim. 

Sorry, you used McDavid ending up in Edmonton as evidence. Which, actually, is not evidence that anything was rigged this year. But it also contradicts any logic for *why* they NHL would rig things for Chicago. 

[WrigleyField 22]

Bahahahaha, classic "sorry you're breaking up on me, I sssccccchhhhh"

[Y2J]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Let me flip that on you. 

Let's take it for granted that the NHL gifted Crosby to the Penguins in order to salvage a foundering franchise in what is currently the 26th largest media market (I don't have the market-size listings for 2005 on hand).

Phoenix is the 10th-largest media market and is severely foundering in the same way Pittsburgh was. If they wanted Crosby in Pittsburgh for the reasons you've given, it would make infinitely more sense to want Bedard in Arizona for the exact same reasons.

You're playing this insane "heads I win, tales you lose" game where no matter what happens, it just gets glommed into the bigger conspiracy, even if it contradicts elemetns already in the conspiracy.

So now we’re looking at media markets? 🫨

[Y2J]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

I have no idea. 2005 was during the dark days of hockey for me. I really wasn't paying any attention at the time. Given that the vast majority of conspiracy theories are bs, though, my default position would be no. There are simply too many competing interests, too many people involved to keep it quiet for 18 years. Somebody would get drunk and brag about it. Someone would have had that decision go against them and would air their grievance to the public. Somebody would talk. 

There's also too much for the league to lose. Yes, one key franchise could have folded. Maybe. But if they get caught, then the whole league probably goes under. They could go to jail. The costs for getting caught are way too high compared to the rewards for making it work.

That said, I don't know if they did the drawings in front of representatives of all 32 teams plus independent observers back then, though.

The NHL is an entertainment organization. Nobody is going to jail for manipulating draft lottery results. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

13 minutes ago, Y2J said:

So now we’re looking at media markets? 🫨

I don't know.  You're doing what's called a "gish gallop."  Youre making random, different points faster than they can be debunked.

[Derwood]

Why the assumption that all 31 teams are "in" on the draft rigging? Why couldn't the commissioner just unilaterally do it without the approval of everyone else?

[Bobson Dugnutt]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Why the assumption that all 31 teams are "in" on the draft rigging? Why couldn't the commissioner just unilaterally do it without the approval of everyone else?

Why would he do that? And how?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

6 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Why the assumption that all 31 teams are "in" on the draft rigging? Why couldn't the commissioner just unilaterally do it without the approval of everyone else?

What's his motivation for doing that? He's equally employed by all 32 owners. Is he getting a kickback?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fun fact: The NHL is a non-profit trade organization comprising 32 member businesses. It is not, itself, a business.

[Tim]

35 minutes ago, Y2J said:

The NHL is an entertainment organization. Nobody is going to jail for manipulating draft lottery results. 

I'm no lawyer, but if the commissioner unilaterally did that, he'd at the very least get his ass sued by 31 other teams. I could also see a basis for fraud as there would be meaningful harm done to at least one other team. If it was done as a conspiracy, that could be even more damning.

[Tim]

15 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Why the assumption that all 31 teams are "in" on the draft rigging? Why couldn't the commissioner just unilaterally do it without the approval of everyone else?

I don't believe that the commissioner himself has the knowhow to rig the lottery ping pong balls, meaning he'd have to get other people involved. As soon as he does that, any contractor working on the project is a loose end. What's he going to do, start rubbing people out to keep the secret safe?

[Tim]

9 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Fun fact: The NHL is a non-profit trade organization comprising 32 member businesses. It is not, itself, a business.

Yes, 32 member businesses whose core business is to compete in a zero sum game. One in which this conspiracy theory suggests that 31 teams are in on it to make one of those teams more competitive in that zero sum game than themselves.

It makes zero sense at all.

[minnesotacubsfan]

16 minutes ago, Tim said:

I don't believe that the commissioner himself has the knowhow to rig the lottery ping pong balls, meaning he'd have to get other people involved. As soon as he does that, any contractor working on the project is a loose end. What's he going to do, start rubbing people out to keep the secret safe?

Works for Donny Trump

[bukie]

Meanwhile, in actual Blackhawks reality, the Connor Bedard effect is real:

 

[Brian707]

A goal and 2 assists tonight.  Empty netter on the goal 

[BigbadB]

The conspiracy theory is working. I'm watching preseason games now.