Blackhawks 2023-24 Season - Bedard luck this year

[Y2J]

5 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Canadiens are also going through a long rebuild, bring in more revenue and are worth more as a franchise, they had 2% worse odds, why not rig it for them?  Other teams in the top 10 (level for revenue sharing, not 8 ) include Detroit, Philadelphia and Washington.  Was there some backdoor deal that allowed the Blackhawks to get the benefit of the rigging, just 1 year after an embarrassing scandal?   The Maple Leafs (the most valuable brand in the sport and in the middle of a stretch of 1 playoff appearance in 11 years) and Flyers were high in the 2015 draft lottery order, why did they give it to middling Edmonton? 

All fair questions. Obviously, I'm not in the know. Just a believer that more of this stuff happens in sports than fans would like to admit. How and why does Edmonton go on the most insanely ridiculous streak of luck in the history of the draft? Who knows?

[Y2J]

3 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

I don’t care if it’s rigged, the BHawks got BEDARD and the rest of the NHL. can suck it

 

Exactly! 

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, Y2J said:

All fair questions. Obviously, I'm not in the know. Just a believer that more of this stuff happens in sports than fans would like to admit. How and why does Edmonton go on the most insanely ridiculous streak of luck in the history of the draft? Who knows?

If you keep flipping a coin, odds are good that you'll hit a streak that absolutely does not look random. Yet it is. Random outcomes are going to have streaks that do not look random. In fact, it is worrisome to a statistician when those streaks do not happen over large samples.

 

[Brian707]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

If you keep flipping a coin, odds are good that you'll hit a streak that absolutely does not look random. Yet it is. Random outcomes are going to have streaks that do not look random. In fact, it is worrisome to a statistician when those streaks do not happen over large samples.

 

Yup, if you go to a roulette wheel and it lands on black 10 times in a row, the odds of it landing on black on the 11th time are still 48% 

[Y2J]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

WTF does that even mean?  You aren't explaining why the Oilers got all that lottery luck, just that they got it.

So far you've said things are rigged for:

-East coast teams (Edmonton is not on the east coast)

-High profile teams (Edmonton is not a high profile team)

-Teams that are revenue sharing contributors (Edmonton is not a revenue sharing contributor)

 

I already said... who knows why they'd manipulate results for Edmonton? Do you not find it at least a little bit curious that Edmonton has won the 1st overall pick on 4 different occasions in a short span of time, while Arizona has never won it and neither has any team in the Pacific time zone? 

Look at often the NFL rules were bent for Tom Brady. Phantom flags. Game-changing calls in favor of certain teams. There was an article posted some time ago about tennis using algorithms to keep unfavorable match-ups away from players like Serena Williams in the early rounds because they wanted her to be there late in tournaments. Why? Money! Anything that money is attached to is not going to be 100% honest. Sports fans just don't want to admit that. 

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, Y2J said:

I already said... who knows why they'd manipulate results for Edmonton? Do you not find it at least a little bit curious that Edmonton has won the 1st overall pick on 4 different occasions in a short span of time, while Arizona has never won it and neither has any team in the Pacific time zone? 

Look at often the NFL rules were bent for Tom Brady. Phantom flags. Game-changing calls in favor of certain teams. There was an article posted some time ago about tennis using algorithms to keep unfavorable match-ups away from players like Serena Williams in the early rounds because they wanted her to be there late in tournaments. Why? Money! Anything that money is attached to is not going to be 100% honest. Sports fans just don't want to admit that. 

So...are you a flat, young, or hollow earther?

[Y2J]

1 minute ago, Tim said:

So...are you a flat, young, or hollow earther?

Flat? No. Young? What constitutes young? Hollow? No. I'll go further. Thermite used in a controlled demolition on 9/11? No. Elvis still alive? No. 

[Tim]

1 minute ago, Y2J said:

Flat? No. Young? What constitutes young? Hollow? No. I'll go further. Thermite used in a controlled demolition on 9/11? No. Elvis still alive? No. 

Moon landing? Kennedy killed by the CIA? Government is hiding aliens?

I'm having a hard time reconciling that you only think conspiracies only happen in sports.

[Y2J]

Just now, Tim said:

Moon landing? Kennedy killed by the CIA? Government is hiding aliens?

I'm having a hard time reconciling that you only think conspiracies only happen in sports.

Moon landing? No. Kennedy killed by the CIA? Possibly. Government is hiding aliens? No. 

On the subject of aliens, I actually know of more people who believe aliens exist than would agree with me that sports can be rigged, which seems absolutely ridiculous to me. 

Look no further than boxing if you want proof that sports can be and are rigged over money.

[Tim]

5 minutes ago, Y2J said:

Look no further than boxing if you want proof that sports can be and are rigged over money.

Pro wrestling was right there, man

[Hairyducked Idiot]

10 hours ago, Y2J said:

Arizona has had the 2nd best odds at the 1st overall pick three different times, the 3rd best odds one time, and the 4th best odds one time. They've never won pick. 

Chicago has had the 3rd best odds twice (Bedard, Toews), and the 5th best odds once (Kane). They won the pick twice.

Since you brought them up, Edmonton has been awarded the 1st overall selection more times (4) than any other team since the draft was installed, including three consecutive years. In 2014, they drafted 3rd overall and then 1st overall again in 2015 to get McDavid. Their odds of such a streak occurring... 0.3%. Maybe it was a run of insane luck and maybe it wasn't. 

This is called overfitting. You wait until after something happens, then calculate how improbable it was. But you wouldn't have noticed it if you hadn't been looking for improbable things, and *something* improbable is always going to happen.

This is devolving into vague nonsense the exact way most conspiracy theories do when examined.  We've gone from the league rigging the Bedard draft because they want their superstars in large markets in TV friendly time zones, to the league rigging the draft for *Edmonton*, a Canadian city of less than 1 million people that plays home games in Mountain time and most of their divisional games in Pacific time.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

19 minutes ago, Y2J said:

I already said... who knows why they'd manipulate results for Edmonton? Do you not find it at least a little bit curious that Edmonton has won the 1st overall pick on 4 different occasions in a short span of time, while Arizona has never won it and neither has any team in the Pacific time zone? 

 

No, because I understand how probability works with regard to variance.

[Y2J]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

No, because I understand how probability works with regard to variance.

Edmonton's luck be damned. If you think sports is 100% innocent of rigging, manipulation, whatever you want to call it, you're fooling yourself.

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, Y2J said:

Moon landing? No. Kennedy killed by the CIA? Possibly. Government is hiding aliens? No. 

On the subject of aliens, I actually know of more people who believe aliens exist than would agree with me that sports can be rigged, which seems absolutely ridiculous to me. 

Look no further than boxing if you want proof that sports can be and are rigged over money.

2 boxers/managers throwing a fight is the not the same as the commissioner and all the major players in the NHL getting together to rig a sport. If 2 boxers do this, you kick them out of the sport and while there is damage to the sport as a whole, it's mostly the two involved. If the NHL rigging came from the very top, hockey would more or less die. The fan's faith in the outcomes of all games would be gone, the gambling scene would be completely gone, etc. 

[minnesotacubsfan]

For crying out loud tim, the gubernet is 100% hiding green humanoids and you know it!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And once again, this whole "well there's millions of dollars at stake" fundamentally misunderstands how NHL finances work.

The NHL isn't the NFL, where unified national TV deals make everyone rich. More than any other major north american pro sport, even more than baseball, the NHL is driven by local revenue.  Arena revenue and local TV rights make up the lion's share of each teams' revenue.

The NHL isn't a single entity trying to get rich for itself. The NHL is 32 seperate billionaires, each of which make far more money when a superstar is selling out their arena, taking them on playoff runs and selling merchandise in the physical team store.   So in order for this conspiracy to work, 31 billionaires must be willing to say "you know what? I don't mind making less money so someone else can make more."  Which is impossible because they wouldn't be billionaires if they were capable of that sentiment.

The problem with this conspiracy theory isn't that people won't conspire to make money.  The problem with this conspiracy theory is that its adherents can't come up with an *actual* coherent conspiracy that fits the facts, one that is plausible with both the mechanisms we've seen and the actual motivations of the people involved.

[Y2J]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

2 boxers/managers throwing a fight is the not the same as the commissioner and all the major players in the NHL getting together to rig a sport. If 2 boxers do this, you kick them out of the sport and while there is damage to the sport as a whole, it's mostly the two involved. If the NHL rigging came from the very top, hockey would more or less die. The fan's faith in the outcomes of all games would be gone, the gambling scene would be completely gone, etc. 

I wasn't referring to boxers throwing fights.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

4 minutes ago, Y2J said:

Edmonton's luck be damned. If you think sports is 100% innocent of rigging, manipulation, whatever you want to call it, you're fooling yourself.

This is called moving the goalposts.  I didn't say "sports never have conspiracies."  I said this specific conspiracy doesn't hold up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

35 minutes ago, Y2J said:

Exactly! 

Ironically, I'm more of an Anaheim fan than I am a Blackhawks fan these days. I grew up on the Blackhawks, but I live in Anaheim and have Ducks season tickets.

[Y2J]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Ironically, I'm more of an Anaheim fan than I am a Blackhawks fan these days. I grew up on the Blackhawks, but I live in Anaheim and have Ducks season tickets.

The Ducks will regret not taking Fantilli. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

9 hours ago, Y2J said:

I don't watch the NBA.

As for the NHL, I believe there are only 8 teams that make enough to contribute to NHL revenue sharing. Guess who one of those teams is. When Chicago brings in money it means more revenue sharing. That's good for everyone.

NHL revenue sharing is relatively small.  It's nothing compared to local arena money.  Arizona, Anaheim, Montreal, all the other teams in the lottery, stood to make *many* times more millions of dollars from winning Bedard than they did from Bedard going to a large market and letting some tiny fraction of a percent trickle down in revenue sharing.

So in order for this conspiracy to work, either the billionaire owners of all these clubs must have been feeling *really* generous. Or they weren't in on it, in which case Bettman went rogue for one specific billionaire owner employer over the rest of them, for unclear motivations. Is he getting a kickback in this theory?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 minutes ago, Y2J said:

The Ducks will regret not taking Fantilli. 

*shrug*

I thought they were fairly equal prospects, and so did every prospect outlet until about 2 months before the draft when the Canadian press needed to fill some pixels.

[Y2J]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

*shrug*

I thought they were fairly equal prospects, and so did every prospect outlet until about 2 months before the draft when the Canadian press needed to fill some pixels.

Fantilli just has the more complete game to me. Reminds me of the Penguins taking Staal over Toews. It isn't to suggest that Carlsson isn't a nice prospect or won't have a good career, but I can't imagine him developing into a better player than Fantilli.

I was live betting on FD during the draft lottery. Fantilli was like -250 to go to Anaheim and Carlsson was +1100, IIRC. Chicago was +650 to land the 1st overall pick. Just interesting how it all ended up playing out. 

[Y2J]

19 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Ironically, I'm more of an Anaheim fan than I am a Blackhawks fan these days. I grew up on the Blackhawks, but I live in Anaheim and have Ducks season tickets.

I don't know if the Ducks ask their season ticket holders for end of the year suggestions like the Cubs do, but please relentlessly ask for the teal and eggplant to come back full-time. Anaheim's current set is atrocious and they have one of the best color combos in sports just waiting to be brought back.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And I was telling Ducks fans the month leading up to the draft that they should hold off on the Fantilli jerseys because I thought Carlsson was equally plausible.