9/28 - Cubs (Stroman) vs Braves (Smith-Shawver): 6:20pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

Starting a getaway game at 7:20pm local time is a real dick move.

[CubinNY]

must win?

[soccer10k]

Can’t wait to see how we painfully lose this game.

[s2obed]

Offense has to keep tacking on runs. Unfortunately, no lead is safe with the state of the bullpen. 

[Andy]

21 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Can’t wait to see how we painfully lose this game.

I suspect today's the day we mercifully just get our ass kicked but Miami loses in some stupid way to try to convince us that we might stumble ass over tea kettle into the playoffs.

[BearDown1223]

54 minutes ago, Andy said:

I suspect today's the day we mercifully just get our ass kicked but Miami loses in some stupid way to try to convince us that we might stumble ass over tea kettle into the playoffs.

I'm thinking Atlanta actually rests some of their starters today.  I know the end is near, but I can see Miami going 2-2 over these final 4.  We still have a shot at this thing. 

[UMFan83]

19 minutes ago, BearDown1223 said:

I'm thinking Atlanta actually rests some of their starters today.  I know the end is near, but I can see Miami going 2-2 over these final 4.  We still have a shot at this thing. 

I think they're obsessed with their top guys playing all the time.  Dansby used to play 162 games with them even though they had clinched stuff.  Olson hasnt missed a game this year.  We'll see but it feels like they don't care about rest - after all they are going to get 5 days of rest while the WC round is played.

Maybe my brain doesn't want to accept the difficult position we're now in but I have a feeling we win today and the Marlins lose.  The race has been too topsy turvy to end like this right? 

Edited September 28, 2023 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I think they're obsessed with their top guys playing all the time.  Dansby used to play 162 games with them even though they had clinched stuff.  Olson hasnt missed a game this year.  We'll see but it feels like they don't care about rest - after all they are going to get 5 days of rest while the WC round is played.

Maybe my brain doesn't want to accept the difficult position we're now in but I have a feeling we win today and the Marlins lose.  The race has been too topsy turvy to end like this right? 

Only real hope in terms of the Braves starters is that between Acuna hitting 40/70 and the Braves clinching home field at least through the NLCS, maybe they all decided to go out and celebrate and were given the day off. 

Lovely that this is where we're at. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

20 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

 

Weird, I never would have guessed pitching would be the demise of this team.

[soccer10k]

2019 was a bad collapse too. With 12 games left, the Cubs were 2 games back of the Cardinals in the division, 1/2 game back of Wash for the first WC and 1 game up on Mil for the second WC. They proceeded to lose 9 straight games, the first of which was by 2 runs and the next 5 all by 1 run. Four of those 1 run games were to the Cards.

[UMFan83]

10 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

2019 was a bad collapse too. With 12 games left, the Cubs were 2 games back of the Cardinals in the division, 1/2 game back of Wash for the first WC and 1 game up on Mil for the second WC. They proceeded to lose 9 straight games, the first of which was by 2 runs and the next 5 all by 1 run. Four of those 1 run games were to the Cards.

I was actually thinking about how tense the players have looked lately, and wanted to go back to the 'never let the pressure exceed the pleasure' manta Maddon had, but then I remembered 2019 lol.  Dude had no way to stop that avalanche

[We Got The Whole 9]

46 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

2019 was a bad collapse too. With 12 games left, the Cubs were 2 games back of the Cardinals in the division, 1/2 game back of Wash for the first WC and 1 game up on Mil for the second WC. They proceeded to lose 9 straight games, the first of which was by 2 runs and the next 5 all by 1 run. Four of those 1 run games were to the Cards.

That was so much worse for me because we still had most of our horses IIRC and were firmly in our championship window. They still felt like a team that could compete in the postseason. This years team had too many critical injuries to the pen that a couple weeks ago I started to lose that "well anything can happen in October" feeling. 

 

This years offense struggled like horsefeathers when teams cut the four seams and started cutting and sinking more. Our guys got shut down by a string of friggin nobodies that the rest of the league treated like nobodies. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by We Got The Whole 9

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

This years offense struggled like horsefeathers when teams cut the four seams and started cutting and sinking more. Our guys got shut down by a string of friggin nobodies that the rest of the league treated like nobodies. 

Is this based on what you're seeing day to day or something else?  Because these are the team's offensive ranks in run value by (Statcast) pitch type:

• FA (includes 4 seamers): 19th
• Cutter: 4th
• Splitter: 9th
• Sinker: 9th

 

If you filter to since the All-Star break, the main difference is they got even better against Fastballs, still 10th against Cutters and 3rd against Sinkers.

[17 Seconds]

TT, make me feel positive about next year please

[chibears55]

Marlins with the Mets tonight and the Pirates over the Weekend are likely to go no worse them 2-2, I just dont see the Cubs winning 3 of 4 against the Braves and Brewers this weekend.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

TT, make me feel positive about next year please

 

My pleasure.

• The offense returns 2 4-win position players and 2 3-win outfielders, along with a productive catching tandem.  Their stalwart position players are well rounded and don't have lopsided offensive profiles, which allows the team to take more risks filling other holes.
• The rotation will probably feature one of this year's Cy Young contenders, and at least two others we expect to be good SP you'd be fine pitching in a playoff series, based on history and most recent performance(Stroman, Hendricks, Taillon).  Wicks was a Top 100 prospect that pitched like a 3 win starter for 20% of the season and will likely be the 5th starter at best.
• The bullpen only loses Fulmer and Boxberger, and if healthy Alzolay is a great back end keystone.  Further investment in the rotation means that decent SP options will be crowded into the pen where they are likely good performers(Smyly, Wesneski, Assad).  Other potential pop up options(Palencia, Little, Brown)  are younger/less experienced than those we've seen in recent years and more likely to make improvements.  Having not traded away the back end of the pen this year, next year's Merryweather or Leiter would be pitching in the 6th/7th rather than the 7th/8th.
• They will likely graduate a Top 25 overall prospect in the field(PCA) and on the mound(Horton) at some point next year.  They have one of the deepest systems in the game to package players in trade to fill holes without jeopardizing the flow of talent.
• If payroll does not increase at all and Stroman opts in, they'll have roughly 50 million in AAV to make improvements/fill holes.  Signs are that payroll will increase and they'll go into the LT.  They'll either bring back a 28 y/o 4-win CF/1B and plug a big hole or have a QO pick to empower them to be aggressive in FA

 

 

 

[17 Seconds]

that's the stuff

[SouthSideRyan]

Now to provide balance, here's Kyle.

[s2obed]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

I was actually thinking about how tense the players have looked lately, and wanted to go back to the 'never let the pressure exceed the pleasure' manta Maddon had, but then I remembered 2019 lol.  Dude had no way to stop that avalanche

I asked Jesse Rogers last night on Twitter and he answered and said the players are quiet but aren’t somber by any means. They seem fine for now I guess. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by s2obed

[We Got The Whole 9]

48 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Is this based on what you're seeing day to day or something else?  Because these are the team's offensive ranks in run value by (Statcast) pitch type:

• FA (includes 4 seamers): 19th
• Cutter: 4th
• Splitter: 9th
• Sinker: 9th

 

If you filter to since the All-Star break, the main difference is they got even better against Fastballs, still 10th against Cutters and 3rd against Sinkers.

This is what I feel like I have seen since the Mets series, with a few exceptions. It feels like that was the tipping point for the offense. 

[UMFan83]

DBacks down 3-1 in the 7th.  I know I know they're virtually up 3 with 4 games to play.  I still think Houston is gonna be tough for them this weekend, even in Phoenix.

But we're also at the point where the Cubs would need to go 4-0 to give them any shot at the Diamondbacks and at that point they probably (maybe?) pass the Marlins anyways.

Edited September 28, 2023 by UMFan83

[s2obed]

Braves playing their regulars tonight lol. Lineup is posted.

[UMFan83]

8 minutes ago, s2obed said:

Braves playing their regulars tonight lol. Lineup is posted.

Like I said early, I fully expected that.  That's just how they operate and they get a good 4 days off between Sunday and the start of the NLDS.  Cubs should just be lucky we got the bad part of their rotation.

It's funny that we're commenting on how gassed guys like Dansby must be and how its affecting their play while the Braves just play everyone every day at like 6 of their 8 defensive positions.

Edited September 28, 2023 by UMFan83

[s2obed]

12 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Like I said early, I fully expected that.  That's just how they operate and they get a good 4 days off between Sunday and the start of the NLDS.  Cubs should just be lucky we got the bad part of their rotation.

It's funny that we're commenting on how gassed guys like Dansby must be and how its affecting their play while the Braves just play everyone every day at like 6 of their 8 defensive positions.

Oh yea, I mean they have to play their regulars thru the end of the season otherwise they’re sitting for 5 days off.
Braves have a 1-8 squad who make it look easy most nights. It’s not 1 or 2 guys having to carry the team. I can see why Swanson or anyone on the Cubs would be ‘gassed.’ That’s a huge load to carry on your back in comparison to the Braves who have 5 dudes with 30+ homers.