9/28 - Cubs (Stroman) vs Braves (Smith-Shawver): 6:20pm, Marquee

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, Andy said:

Pretty much any scenario of the Cubs being decent next year includes Justin Steele being fantastic again and I don't know on what universe that can be counted on.

He is a solid #2 or 3. This year was almost certainly an outlier.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Counterpoint: Good starting pitching is going to keep games close and terrible bullpen is going to lose a lot of those games.

But that's historically not true. Bullpen quality does not correlate particularly well with record in one-run games.

A bad bullpen is just as likely to turn a 3-run-lead into a nailbiting one-run win, or a one-run loss into a multi-run loss.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I have a feeling a lot of people are suddenly second thinking their potential weekend trip to Milwaukee now.

[Chicago Al]

What a shame, one of the hottest teams  2-3 weeks ago to the shittiest team currently.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Seems like that Little guy should have been utilized more as the rest of the bullpen was dying.

 

FU Ross.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Of course our pen was pretty damn solid tonight when we were trailing all night.

Sad times.

[s2obed]

2 minutes ago, Andy said:

Pretty much any scenario of the Cubs being decent next year includes Justin Steele being fantastic again and I don't know on what universe that can be counted on.

-He will be fine. Been pretty good since mid 2022.

-Taillon can’t be any worse than this year can he? 

-Horton will be up sometime in 2024 and he looks like the real deal.

[cl smooth]

The 2023 Chicago Cubs: They Are Who We Thought They Were. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

But that's historically not true. Bullpen quality does not correlate particularly well with record in one-run games.

A bad bullpen is just as likely to turn a 3-run-lead into a nailbiting one-run win, or a one-run loss into a multi-run loss.

I get that, but we have seen this team win games by a lot, and then consistently lose them by a little.  Maybe that's all that bad luck in how runs are being sequenced, but I have a hard time not thinking this particular bad bullpen has led to a lot more close losses than close wins.

[JHBulls]

Equal third best run differential in the NL… about to miss out on the postseason. That’s just depressing. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

Equal third best run differential in the NL… about to miss out on the postseason. That’s just depressing. 

To be fair, the Cubs are tied with San Diego in the category and they are under .500

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 more Cubs loss and Marlins win means they clinch right? Doesn't even matter I guess, even if they were out of it Ross would be starting Tauchman, Mastroboner, Wisdom and somehow Young with all the kids on the bench. 

[UMFan83]

So a 2023 Chicago Cub has blown an 8th inning or later lead 5 times in the last 3 days. 

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

1 more Cubs loss and Marlins win means they clinch right? Doesn't even matter I guess, even if they were out of it Ross would be starting Tauchman, Mastroboner, Wisdom and somehow Young with all the kids on the bench. 

Yeah Marlins magic number will be 2. The Cubs can guarantee survival until the weekend by winning tomorrow but I’m pretty sure their will is broken. I bet they win the last game of the season with Canario, PCA, etc in the lineup but that’s it

[Irrelevant Dude]

If only some of the bad Cubs teams of the past few years were this good at tanking late season games...

[s2obed]

What an awful collapse. Would’ve been ok with them just sucking it up all year. Nope, they had to tease us all. 

[Rex Buckingham]

5 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

If only some of the bad Cubs teams of the past few years were this good at tanking late season games...

Honestly, in 2022 Holliday is the only guy I'd take over Horton, and in 2023 we would have had to get into the top 5 to get someone I'd definitely take over Shaw (in hindsight)

[Irrelevant Dude]

Fun with arbitrary endpoints - The Cubs are 6-13 since the start of the Arizona series on 9/7.  If they could have just gone 8-11 over that same period, they would be headed into Milwaukee with a lead.

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, s2obed said:

What an awful collapse. Would’ve been ok with them just sucking it up all year. Nope, they had to tease us all. 

Imagine what we could have gotten for Bellinger and Stroman!

im kidding but at the same time given how much of a gut punch this is, it makes me go back and wish we sold.  The decision was still obviously the right one though. We had a 4.5 game lead on September 7th. 

[squally1313]

Nah, it was worth it. 15 teams in baseball don't even stick around long enough to get a gut punch, 14 teams get one at some point in late September/October. That Labor Day game was incredible, the Giants series was great, Morel against the Sox, that stretch where it seemed like Azlolay was closing out every game and tweeting from the mound. A ****** couple weeks, and you couldn't have scheduled them much worse, but doesn't cancel out how fun the summer was.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

17 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I get that, but we have seen this team win games by a lot, and then consistently lose them by a little.  Maybe that's all that bad luck in how runs are being sequenced, but I have a hard time not thinking this particular bad bullpen has led to a lot more close losses than close wins.

It is, in fact, just bad luck.  My favorite go-to example is the 2003 Tigers, who lost 119 games and had an awful bullpen but still managed to 19-18 in one-run games.

When a team is experiencing negative variance, it's really tempting to say "ah-hah, the reason is all the things they've done that I've disagreed with" like not calling up some prospect that everyone wants up, or the manager doing whatever managers do that people don't like, or employing Ian Stewart.

While those things certainly don't help, and the Cubs would be better off with a better bullpen, they really did just experience negative variance. So it goes.

 

[soccer10k]

It will all be over in about 24 hours.

[UMFan83]

lol Cubs fans and their hope....people on Twitter are now speculating what would happen if they had to call the rest of the Marlins-Mets game.  Technically I believe the rule is they revert to the last completed inning and the Mets win, but there is 0.00% chance that they call the game.

 

...but what if they have to resume at 4am, and then they don't get to Pittsburgh until 9am and they're so tired they get swept and then the Cubs somehow win 3 games

Edited September 29, 2023 by UMFan83

[s2obed]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

lol Cubs fans and their hope....people on Twitter are now speculating what would happen if they had to call the rest of the Marlins-Mets game.  Technically I believe the rule is they revert to the last completed inning and the Mets win, but there is 0.00% chance that they call the game.

 

...but what if they have to resume at 4am, and then they don't get to Pittsburgh until 9am and they're so tired they get swept and then the Cubs somehow win 3 games

Lol. I’m thinking they’re holding out as long as possible to play that game tonight.

[We Got The Whole 9]

27 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It is, in fact, just bad luck.  My favorite go-to example is the 2003 Tigers, who lost 119 games and had an awful bullpen but still managed to 19-18 in one-run games.

When a team is experiencing negative variance, it's really tempting to say "ah-hah, the reason is all the things they've done that I've disagreed with" like not calling up some prospect that everyone wants up, or the manager doing whatever managers do that people don't like, or employing Ian Stewart.

While those things certainly don't help, and the Cubs would be better off with a better bullpen, they really did just experience negative variance. So it goes.

 

I don't feel like parsing it and maybe there's an easier way I am not aware of to accomplish it, but I'd be interested in seeing what the Brewers record has been in 1-run games since 2017.