9/15 - Cubs (Steele) vs Diamondbacks (Pfaadt): 8:40pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cubs with the clear pitching advantage, just score early and put this one away quietly.

[Jason Ross]

I refuse to believe Pfaadt is a real name.  

[bukie]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I refuse to believe Pfaadt is a real name.  

He Pfaadts in your general direction.

[NorthsideAvenger]

30 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I refuse to believe Pfaadt is a real name.  

It's no Urban Shocker or Johnny Dickshot. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Now these are actually must win games with the Cubs shooting themselves in the foot recently. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

Now these are actually must win games with the Cubs shooting themselves in the foot recently. 

Not really though.  The Cubs can't get swept, but if they just win 1 out of 3 they still come out of the series in the #2 Wild Card spot regardless of what all the other teams do.  Not that they would be in a great position at that point, but still far from "must win".

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, bukie said:

He Pfaadts in your general direction.

Your cousin.....FROM BOS-TON

[Rcal10]

48 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Not really though.  The Cubs can't get swept, but if they just win 1 out of 3 they still come out of the series in the #2 Wild Card spot regardless of what all the other teams do.  Not that they would be in a great position at that point, but still far from "must win".

In the true sense of the words “must series” I agree the Cubs don’t have to win it. Just don’t get swept. However, with the way the pitching matches up the cubs really should take 2 of 3, if not sweep the dbacks. They don’t “technically” have to. But they really should. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

48 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Not really though.  The Cubs can't get swept, but if they just win 1 out of 3 they still come out of the series in the #2 Wild Card spot regardless of what all the other teams do.  Not that they would be in a great position at that point, but still far from "must win".

Yep, the Cubs could get swept and play .500 for the final 12 games and finish with a win total that would get them in the playoffs at current rates.  I wouldn't suggest doing it that way and it's possible multiple teams finish strong and surpass them in that outcome, but there are no do-or-die/must-win games for now.

[CubinNY]

20 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Your cousin.....FROM BOS-TON

Those ads make me very much less likely to drink Sam Adams and appreciate anything from or around New England. It's like the advertising agency who made them hate Sam Adams beer so much they tricked them into thinking the ads would make people buy their product.

Edited September 15, 2023 by CubinNY

[Derwood]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Those ads make me very much less likely to drink Sam Adams and appreciate anything from or around New England. It's like the advertising agency who made them hate Sam Adams beer so much they tricked them into thinking the ads would make people buy their product.

I think they're funny. *shrug*

 

Anyways, I'm hopped up on allergy/cold medicine today, so I will surely fall asleep in the 3rd inning of this game

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Not really though.  The Cubs can't get swept, but if they just win 1 out of 3 they still come out of the series in the #2 Wild Card spot regardless of what all the other teams do.  Not that they would be in a great position at that point, but still far from "must win".

Not disagreeing at all with your point at all but just for fun, this is the worst case scenario if the Cubs won 1 of 3

 

WC1 PHI  3.5 GA

W2 CHC --

W3 SF -- (Cubs win tiebreaker)

--------------------

ARI 0.5 GB

CIN 0.5 GB

MIA 1 GB

LOL Please win more than 1 of 3 for my sanity

 

Because I'm weird, best case scenario if the Cubs sweep

WC1 CHC --

WC2 PHI 1.5 GB (lose tiebreak)

WC3 ARI 5.5 GB (win tiebreak)

--------------------

CIN 5.5 GB (lose tiebreak)

SF 6.0 GB (win tiebreak)

MIA 6.0 GB (lose tiebreak)

Edited September 15, 2023 by UMFan83

[UMFan83]

Again because I'm weird, here is how certain 3 team tiebreakers for 1 spot involving the Cubs would look like.  Gonna leave off ARI since there's still a lot of fluidity and Philly because its still a long shot that the Cubs, Phillies and another team are fighting for WC3.

CHC/CIN/SF:

CHC is 5-1 vs. SF, 6-7 vs CIN, SF is 4-3 vs CIN.  Since no team won the H2H over the other 2 teams, its best winning % against other opponents.  Cubs would be 11-8, Giants 5-8, Reds 10-10 so the Cubs would win this tiebreaker

CHC/CIN/MIA:

CHC is 2-4 vs. MIA and 6-7 vs. CIN.  MIA and CIN tied 3-3.  Since no team won H2H over the other 2 teams, Cubs would be 8-11, MIA 7-5, CIN 10-9 so Miami would win this tiebreaker 

CHC/SF/MIA: 

CHC is 2-4 vs. MIA and 5-1 vs. SF.  SF is 3-3 vs. MIA.  Again goes to winning % against others.  CHC is 7-5, SF is 4-8, MIA is 7-5.  At this point it reverts to H2H between CHC and MIA and Miami would win this tiebreaker (if they are playing for 2 spots then the Cubs would also slide in as WC3 and Miami WC2)

Looking at Arizona high level they are currently 3-1 vs. CHC (3 to play), 2-4 vs. MIA, 5-6 vs SF (2 to play), 3-4 vs. CIN

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

Your commitment to playing out various scenarios is truly impressive. I'm too old, there are too many teams, etc. Let me try a different way, not even to prove a point...I'm just more used to this phrasing:

Let's say the Cubs go 6-9 (nice) to finish the year. Short of a complete collapse, kinda worst case scenario. Without considering head to head, and using UMFan's tiebreaker notes above, us missing the playoffs would require three of the following:

Phillies to go 5-11 or better

Diamondbacks to go 8-6

Reds to go 8-6

Giants to go 9-5

Marlins to go 9-6

Ignoring the Phillies, who by most basic metrics are Good and have a very low bar to cross, missing the playoffs after finishing 6-9 would require two of the four teams above, all with worse records than us, all with a negative run differential, to play .570 ball or better the rest of the year. Certainly possible in this very pessimistic situation. Change the Cubs record to 7-8 and suddenly you're looking at 9-5 x2, 10-4, 10-5. Basically: close to .500 and we're fine. 

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Your commitment to playing out various scenarios is truly impressive. I'm too old, there are too many teams, etc. Let me try a different way, not even to prove a point...I'm just more used to this phrasing:

Let's say the Cubs go 6-9 (nice) to finish the year. Short of a complete collapse, kinda worst case scenario. Without considering head to head, and using UMFan's tiebreaker notes above, us missing the playoffs would require three of the following:

Phillies to go 5-11 or better

Diamondbacks to go 8-6

Reds to go 8-6

Giants to go 9-5

Marlins to go 9-6

Ignoring the Phillies, who by most basic metrics are Good and have a very low bar to cross, missing the playoffs after finishing 6-9 would require two of the four teams above, all with worse records than us, all with a negative run differential, to play .570 ball or better the rest of the year. Certainly possible in this very pessimistic situation. Change the Cubs record to 7-8 and suddenly you're looking at 9-5 x2, 10-4, 10-5. Basically: close to .500 and we're fine. 

When you put it this way, I like their chances. With their schedule there is no reason they shouldn’t at least go 7-8 / 8-7. I don’t see two teams behind them playing better than .600 ball to finish the season. They really should take 2 of 3 this weekend. Then at home they should win 4 of 6. That means one win against Braves or brewers (who will each not be playing for anything). They should be able to do that. And, if they can’t, they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway. 

[UMFan83]

If you assume the Cubs still play poorly and lose all the series to the above .500 teams, get swept by the Braves, and win both series against the bad teams by the minimum amount, you still get to 6-9

ARI - 1-2

PIT - 2-1

COL - 2-1

ATL - 0-3

MIL - 1-2

 

[UMFan83]

[Rcal10]

Going tonight. They better win.

[UMFan83]

With the Braves clinching the NL East yesterday, I kind of expected a hangover lineup tonight against the Marlins, but looks like most of their regulars are in there.  Perhaps they are waiting until closer to the end of the year to rest guys, like maybe in the 2nd to last series of the season.

Other relevant games tonight:

5:40 pm Braves at Marlins (3 GB) (Elder vs. Cueto)

6:10 pm Reds (2.5 GB) at Mets (Greene vs. Peterson)

7:10 pm Nationals at Brewers (4.5 GA) (Irvin at Miley)

7:15 pm Phillies (1.5 GA) at Cardinals (Nola vs. Thompson)

7:40 pm Giants (2.5 GB) at Rockies (Webb vs. Anderson)

 

[soccer10k]

51 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

With the Braves clinching the NL East yesterday, I kind of expected a hangover lineup tonight against the Marlins, but looks like most of their regulars are in there.  Perhaps they are waiting until closer to the end of the year to rest guys, like maybe in the 2nd to last series of the season.

Maybe they’re waiting until they get home field locked up. As long as they go hard through Sept 20, that’s all I care about.

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Maybe they’re waiting until they get home field locked up. As long as they go hard through Sept 20, that’s all I care about.

I think it's a proven scientific fact that the best time to rest your starters if you are a top seed with HFA locked up is the 2nd to last series of the season.  Not the 3rd to last, not the last.  The 2nd to last.

Source: Me

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Cubs lineup vs. Diamondbacks:

Tauchman CF
Hoerner 2B
Happ LF
Bellinger 1B
Swanson SS
Suzuki RF
Morel DH
Gomes C
Madrigal 3B

Steele SP
 

Thought they might start PCA in Center then Tauchman in Right or Left and DH Happ or Seiya. But going with Tauch in CF and Morel DH

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Stroman back. Palencia to Iowa

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

Stroman back. Palencia to Iowa

Guess hes available out of the pen then.  Wonder if they'll use live game action to get his arm warmed up or if they are just accepting that he will be a pen arm for now.  At the very least he should be there to piggyback any of the starters if they struggle.  

Surprised its Palencia going down instead of Wesneski or Little.  Guess they'd want another multi inning guy.

Edited September 15, 2023 by UMFan83

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Not disagreeing at all with your point at all but just for fun, this is the worst case scenario if the Cubs won 1 of 3

 

WC1 PHI  3.5 GA

W2 CHC --

W3 SF -- (Cubs win tiebreaker)

--------------------

ARI 0.5 GB

CIN 0.5 GB

MIA 1 GB

LOL Please win more than 1 of 3 for my sanity

 

Because I'm weird, best case scenario if the Cubs sweep

WC1 CHC --

WC2 PHI 1.5 GB (lose tiebreak)

WC3 ARI 5.5 GB (win tiebreak)

--------------------

CIN 5.5 GB (lose tiebreak)

SF 6.0 GB (win tiebreak)

MIA 6.0 GB (lose tiebreak)

Yea, don't really wanna lose another series here to a team that right behind them and then have to go into the final 12 games with little breathing room, especially with the last 6 being against the Braves and Brewers on the road.