2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Bertz]

Assuming the Hosmer thing happens, I think the biggest disappointment for me is that it would seem like confirmation the team is staying under the Luxury Tax. The club is $18M under right now. That's just about right for a Hoerner extension ($8Mish more than his arb salary?), a little more relief help (<$5M), another low end bat (~$2M), while leaving a couple million for the deadline or for Happ to beat his arb projection.

 

Hosmer himself though is still a decent hitter, and likely to get a boost this year. Statcast says he would have hit 28 dongs the last two years in Wrigley, compared to 20 in real life. That's the second most of any park in MLB behind Cincy. Also as a heavy GB guy he's been heavily impacted by the shift. He has a .339 wOBA the last three years while batting without the shift vs. a .247 against. For reference, that's roughly the difference between Ian Happ last year (.339 wOBA) and Jonathan Villar (.250 wOBA).

 

Neither adjustment makes him a star again, but I do think they get him up to that 110-115 wRC+ neighborhood. And if he sucks he's making league minimum. Cut him by Memorial Day and bring up whatever Iowa bat is showing out most.

[jersey cubs fan]

At this point they aren’t going to be any good so why go over the luxury tax just to pick up mediocre dudes?

[Derwood]

If Hosmer is to be had for league minimum, can't we assume he has multiple offers?

[Bull]

Assuming the Hosmer thing happens, I think the biggest disappointment for me is that it would seem like confirmation the team is staying under the Luxury Tax. The club is $18M under right now. That's just about right for a Hoerner extension ($8Mish more than his arb salary?), a little more relief help (<$5M), another low end bat (~$2M), while leaving a couple million for the deadline or for Happ to beat his arb projection.

 

Hosmer himself though is still a decent hitter, and likely to get a boost this year. Statcast says he would have hit 28 dongs the last two years in Wrigley, compared to 20 in real life. That's the second most of any park in MLB behind Cincy. Also as a heavy GB guy he's been heavily impacted by the shift. He has a .339 wOBA the last three years while batting without the shift vs. a .247 against. For reference, that's roughly the difference between Ian Happ last year (.339 wOBA) and Jonathan Villar (.250 wOBA).

 

Neither adjustment makes him a star again, but I do think they get him up to that 110-115 wRC+ neighborhood. And if he sucks he's making league minimum. Cut him by Memorial Day and bring up whatever Iowa bat is showing out most.

 

I like staying under this year. They going over for one 5 war player takes you from a 79 win team to an 84 win team if things break right. And if they don’t you have to pay larger penalties next year to stay decent. This way you weather Heywards final year and have a big chunk to spend next year, the farm reaches maturity - or at least you know what you have in Davis, the pitchers, and Amaya heading into ‘24 - and you can spend big next year. There are so many question marks on this roster that even if things go reeeeally well and you are in the wild card or division drivers seat come July, there no way to forecast WHICH things went well and which things needs addressed at the deadline. Not to mention that a decent run this year makes you more attractive to FA next year. Lets be honest this wasn’t an attractive destination this off-season.

 

In many ways this is 2015 all over again. Don’t expect this to be the year. Compete this year. Window really opens next year.

[Irrelevant Dude]

In many ways this is 2015 all over again.

I wish I could be that optimistic.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Correct me if Im wrong but can't they go over now and dump salary by the TDL to get back under?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Correct me if Im wrong but can't they go over now and dump salary by the TDL to get back under?

 

What matters is how much is paid over the course of the full season, so while we simplify by thinking in round terms there's a lot of micro adjustments in the real number with call-ups and the exact amount paid for player benefits(which on the outside we just roundly estimate). But to your point, I don't know what the exact purpose would be of creeping over the line to start the season and requiring yourself to jump down under it if the team isn't great. The roster doesn't set itself up for that very well in terms of overall quality or tradeable contracts, and the benefit of spending a bit more is pretty muted. The one exception would probably be if Boston gets serious about trading Devers, but that's a big enough upgrade that you're realistic contenders for the division.

[Bertz]

Assuming the Hosmer thing happens, I think the biggest disappointment for me is that it would seem like confirmation the team is staying under the Luxury Tax. The club is $18M under right now. That's just about right for a Hoerner extension ($8Mish more than his arb salary?), a little more relief help (<$5M), another low end bat (~$2M), while leaving a couple million for the deadline or for Happ to beat his arb projection.

 

Hosmer himself though is still a decent hitter, and likely to get a boost this year. Statcast says he would have hit 28 dongs the last two years in Wrigley, compared to 20 in real life. That's the second most of any park in MLB behind Cincy. Also as a heavy GB guy he's been heavily impacted by the shift. He has a .339 wOBA the last three years while batting without the shift vs. a .247 against. For reference, that's roughly the difference between Ian Happ last year (.339 wOBA) and Jonathan Villar (.250 wOBA).

 

Neither adjustment makes him a star again, but I do think they get him up to that 110-115 wRC+ neighborhood. And if he sucks he's making league minimum. Cut him by Memorial Day and bring up whatever Iowa bat is showing out most.

 

I like staying under this year. They going over for one 5 war player takes you from a 79 win team to an 84 win team if things break right. And if they don’t you have to pay larger penalties next year to stay decent. This way you weather Heywards final year and have a big chunk to spend next year, the farm reaches maturity - or at least you know what you have in Davis, the pitchers, and Amaya heading into ‘24 - and you can spend big next year. There are so many question marks on this roster that even if things go reeeeally well and you are in the wild card or division drivers seat come July, there no way to forecast WHICH things went well and which things needs addressed at the deadline. Not to mention that a decent run this year makes you more attractive to FA next year. Lets be honest this wasn’t an attractive destination this off-season.

 

In many ways this is 2015 all over again. Don’t expect this to be the year. Compete this year. Window really opens next year.

 

Yeah it's definitely not cut and dry, but I would have preferred to go over this year, even if it was just for some unexciting1 year deals. Payroll to open next offseason is slated to be $100Mish under the tax if Stroman opts out as expected, and $80Mish if he doesn't. That's enough to land two stars and some complimentary parts (admittedly skimping on those though if Stro's still around).

 

I'd much rather have added another couple wins to this year's team and had things be a bit tighter next winter beyond the marquee additions. The meat of the farm system is slated to start hitting MLB the second half of this year, so unlike this winter I don't think next winter there's going to be much need to simply add warm bodies to fill various positions. A primo hitter, a primo SP, and the typical cadre of cheap relievers and maybe a bench guy should be sufficient.

 

My guess is the thing Jed's hung up on is the FA penalties for luxury tax payers. We know Jed hates signing qualifying offer guys regardless, and the penalties are a lot sharper for teams that were over the LT the prior year. I believe in the draft it's a 2nd and a 5th, and then the IFA penalties double. I could see Jed avoiding that like the plague.

[Derwood]

[tweet]

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[Tim]

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Good for him. He's a really solid minor league depth piece, but I'm really glad he's not part of the major league squad for us going forward.

[Post Count Padder]

Nats signed Dom Smith. That's one rumored option off the table. Tbh I was never a big fan so I'm not broken up about it. Seems like it's gonna be Hosmer but I'd hope he gets paired with a power DH bat. And there aren't many available.

[Cubswin11]

Nats signed Dom Smith. That's one rumored option off the table. Tbh I was never a big fan so I'm not broken up about it. Seems like it's gonna be Hosmer but I'd hope he gets paired with a power DH bat. And there aren't many available.

If Hosmer is basically free there’s still money for Mancini then there’s also Wisdom as RHH power options. Assuming Correa goes through with the Mets Canha or Escobar could be options too.

 

I still see 3B as a major hole with basically only Wisdom and whatever LHH we keep between Mckinstry and the guy we got from the Rays (and they’re really more bench utility guys vs guys you want playing there every day). Brian Anderson is still a FA too and I guess could be worth a flyer.

[mul21]

Nats signed Dom Smith. That's one rumored option off the table. Tbh I was never a big fan so I'm not broken up about it. Seems like it's gonna be Hosmer but I'd hope he gets paired with a power DH bat. And there aren't many available.

If Hosmer is basically free there’s still money for Mancini then there’s also Wisdom as RHH power options. Assuming Correa goes through with the Mets Canha or Escobar could be options too.

 

I still see 3B as a major hole with basically only Wisdom and whatever LHH we keep between Mckinstry and the guy we got from the Rays (and they’re really more bench utility guys vs guys you want playing there every day). Brian Anderson is still a FA too and I guess could be worth a flyer.

 

Did Longoria sign somewhere?

[Bull]

In many ways this is 2015 all over again.

I wish I could be that optimistic.

In that they weren’t supposed to win in 2015. The wild card was a surprise. I would say a wild card berth would be equally surprising this year.

[Cubswin11]

Nats signed Dom Smith. That's one rumored option off the table. Tbh I was never a big fan so I'm not broken up about it. Seems like it's gonna be Hosmer but I'd hope he gets paired with a power DH bat. And there aren't many available.

If Hosmer is basically free there’s still money for Mancini then there’s also Wisdom as RHH power options. Assuming Correa goes through with the Mets Canha or Escobar could be options too.

 

I still see 3B as a major hole with basically only Wisdom and whatever LHH we keep between Mckinstry and the guy we got from the Rays (and they’re really more bench utility guys vs guys you want playing there every day). Brian Anderson is still a FA too and I guess could be worth a flyer.

 

Did Longoria sign somewhere?

D’backs last week.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Cubswin11

[Derwood]

Nats signed Dom Smith. That's one rumored option off the table. Tbh I was never a big fan so I'm not broken up about it. Seems like it's gonna be Hosmer but I'd hope he gets paired with a power DH bat. And there aren't many available.

If Hosmer is basically free there’s still money for Mancini then there’s also Wisdom as RHH power options. Assuming Correa goes through with the Mets Canha or Escobar could be options too.

 

I still see 3B as a major hole with basically only Wisdom and whatever LHH we keep between Mckinstry and the guy we got from the Rays (and they’re really more bench utility guys vs guys you want playing there every day). Brian Anderson is still a FA too and I guess could be worth a flyer.

 

Did Longoria sign somewhere?

 

Arizona

[CubinNY]

In many ways this is 2015 all over again.

I wish I could be that optimistic.

In that they weren’t supposed to win in 2015. The wild card was a surprise. I would say a wild card berth would be equally surprising this year.

It will only be similar if Davis and PCA and Mervis all come up and are raking. And one of the young pitchers step up ala Jake.

[Cubswin11]

I wish I could be that optimistic.

In that they weren’t supposed to win in 2015. The wild card was a surprise. I would say a wild card berth would be equally surprising this year.

It will only be similar if Davis and PCA and Mervis all come up and are raking. And one of the young pitchers step up ala Jake.

Steele or Wesneski I think are potential TOR guys so we have that. There was a report today Davis is already looking good and doing stuff in Arizona. Mervis is the Rizzo wildcard and PCA would be a really aggressive promotion this year, imo.

[Cubswin11]

 

A lineup vs RHP should be pretty good. There’s R/L balance, contact/power/OBP balance.

 

Happ LF

Suzuki RF

Hosmer 1B

Swanson SS

Bellinger CF

Nico 2B

Mervis DH

Wisdom/Mckinstry/Mastrobuoni/Morel 3B

Gomes/Barnhart C

Edited January 3, 2023 by Cubswin11

[Tryptamine]

78 wins and a bad offense. This is going to be one miserable team to watch.

[Tim]

78 wins and a bad offense. This is going to be one miserable team to watch.

I'll go with 85-87 wins.

 

Run prevention and overall depth will be enough to boost a slightly below average to average offense.

[Cubswin11]

78 wins and a bad offense. This is going to be one miserable team to watch.

I'll go with 85-87 wins.

 

Run prevention and overall depth will be enough to boost a slightly below average to average offense.

And I think the pitching is really deep, don’t have the ace/anchor but they have a lot of solid arms.

[chopsx9]

I’d like the Cubs to find a couple young-er SPs averaging 95 like prime Arrieta

 

The guy that put up a near unprecedented season and a halfish pitching stretch? That would be cool. Two would be even cooler.

[Cubswin11]

[Bertz]

78 wins and a bad offense. This is going to be one miserable team to watch.

I'll go with 85-87 wins.

 

Run prevention and overall depth will be enough to boost a slightly below average to average offense.

 

Yeah I think this is about right. The team is not going to bottom out, there's just way too much depth to let that happen. But at the same time, that depth cuts the other way a bit. It's going to take some time to iterate through and find the best version of this team. If Ross and Jed mostly nail it coming out of ST, the team can win 90+ games, but realistically there's going to be missteps and the team is going to be in the mix for the latter two wildcard spots.

 

I do think it's weird that there's this notion that the position player group will be boring? They're likely to be top 5 in steals and defense and top 10 in dongs. This isn't some group of slap hitters or vintage Oakland teams that walk to the point of being passive. The starting pitching group, even if effective, is likely to be pretty blasé, but the position player group is extremely watchable.