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Whaddaya Seiya Suzuki (Signed with Cubs, 5/$85m)

David

By David,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Is he strictly a corner outfielder? I see he’s won some gold gloves in RF

 

I think this is the big question. My understanding is he's in kind of that gray zone where he could probably pass in CF for a year or two but he'll be a RFer sooner rather than later. Given our roster, I would think he'd head straight to RF, but there's a reasonable argument the other way.

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Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

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Posted
Posted
While I'm certainly glad PTR undid the velcro on his wallet, this isn't my favorite signing we could have made with this money. I'm a little worried about Japanese hitters currently. With the very large exception of Ohtani, it's been a really rough go the past 5-10 years. I sort of worry that's tied to the explosion of velocity in MLB. At the same time, aside from Ohtani I don't think there's been a guy this well thought of since Fukudome, so hopefully that's all? Also, more medium to longer term, I'm not sure RHH corner outfielder is something the org was hurting for, though that's a secondary concern as particularly in the outfield you don't turn down a good player in hand for prospects on the farm.

 

One promising thing I saw this morning was that his plate discipline is better than recent imports. https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/10/22/seiya-suzuki-a-deep-dive-on-the-next-big-thing-out-of-japan

 

However, it's looking at the approach that gives me more comfort about him at the major league level.

 

In 2019, Tsutsugo had put up a 21.9% O-Swing%, 41.6% Swing%, 76.3% Contact%, and 9.8% SwStr%.

 

Compared to Akiyama who had a 24.8% O-Swing%, 44.4% Swing%, 81.5% Contact% and 8.2% SwStr%.

 

Suzuki beats them with a great 16.9% O-Swing, 35.4 Swing%, 81.2 Contact%, and 6.6 SwStr% in 2019.

 

Even when compared to this current year, he still beats them out with a O-Swing% 19.9%, 36.1% Swing%, 79.5% Contact% and a 7.4 SwStr%.

 

That article also has glowing things to say about his build, athleticism, and bat speed, so hopefully he's more Ohtani than Shogo. He's coming over with more of his prime in front of him than the non-Ohtani guys, which certainly helps on that front too.

squally1313 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

squally1313

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
While I'm certainly glad PTR undid the velcro on his wallet, this isn't my favorite signing we could have made with this money. I'm a little worried about Japanese hitters currently. With the very large exception of Ohtani, it's been a really rough go the past 5-10 years. I sort of worry that's tied to the explosion of velocity in MLB. At the same time, aside from Ohtani I don't think there's been a guy this well thought of since Fukudome, so hopefully that's all? Also, more medium to longer term, I'm not sure RHH corner outfielder is something the org was hurting for, though that's a secondary concern as particularly in the outfield you don't turn down a good player in hand for prospects on the farm.

 

One promising thing I saw this morning was that his plate discipline is better than recent imports. https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/10/22/seiya-suzuki-a-deep-dive-on-the-next-big-thing-out-of-japan

 

However, it's looking at the approach that gives me more comfort about him at the major league level.

 

In 2019, Tsutsugo had put up a 21.9% O-Swing%, 41.6% Swing%, 76.3% Contact%, and 9.8% SwStr%.

 

Compared to Akiyama who had a 24.8% O-Swing%, 44.4% Swing%, 81.5% Contact% and 8.2% SwStr%.

 

Suzuki beats them with a great 16.9% O-Swing, 35.4 Swing%, 81.2 Contact%, and 6.6 SwStr% in 2019.

 

Even when compared to this current year, he still beats them out with a O-Swing% 19.9%, 36.1% Swing%, 79.5% Contact% and a 7.4 SwStr%.

 

That article also has glowing things to say about his build, athleticism, and bat speed, so hopefully he's more Ohtani than Shogo. He's coming over with more of his prime in front of him than the non-Ohtani guys, which certainly helps on that front too.

 

This kinda screams Fukudome right? Which, for the contract, it's a good signing. But worried they're going to point to this guy as the marquee signing of the offseason when he kinda just looks like...another Ian Happ?

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
This kinda screams Fukudome right? Which, for the contract, it's a good signing. But worried they're going to point to this guy as the marquee signing of the offseason when he kinda just looks like...another Ian Happ?

 

I don't know how similar the batted ball/plate discipline peripherals are, but at a surface level I think that's in the ballpark, with the exception that he's coming over 4 years earlier. I don't think that difference can be undersold given that the main difficulty in making the transition is keeping up with velocity, and those coming over at 30+ are already having to deal with diminished ability compared to their previous selves.

 

But overall yeah, the mental model here should be expecting production on the whole equivalent to a Happ or a Schwarber but with some hope that he can surprise and be more. Plus offering that productivity at an age where he can maintain that level for several years, which is uncommon in FA anymore.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Guessing $85M is the expenditure, with 15 to his Japanese team and 70 to Seiya himself

 

Not according to this:

 

 

Guessing Kaplan heard 5/$85 with a $15M posting fee, and instead of taking two seconds to clarify whether that was part of the 85 or on top of the 85 rushed to Twitter. Sounds right.

CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Should I be excited?

Yes, but the level of excitement will be determined by what else they do. They need some start pitching.

Edited by CubinNY
UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)

The ZIPS projections are interesting and have him pegged at 2.6 WAR next year. Assuming he'll be replacing Heyward, that's 0.5-0.7 wins more than Heyward gave the Cubs between 2018-2019 (throwing out 2020 because of the short season but he was on pace for 5.5 wins over a 162 game season, which we know he wouldn't have hit)

 

Is that a lot more production? I know WAR is an inexact science and projecting a player coming over from Japan is even more inexact, but that doesn't seem like a huge improvement over what we've been getting from JHey

Edited by UMFan83
UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

With Scherzer at the deadline and now Suzuki, that’s two reported “done deals” that have fallen through for the Padres in the last few months. I’d be incredibly frustrated as a Padres fan. Obviously two very different caliber players, but yeah.

 

Not to mention Tatis breaking his wrist in a motorcycle accident right before spring training starts. Shitty time to be a Pads fan. Well, its shitty to be a Pads fans most of the time but 2020 gave them some actual hope before crushing it.

Tryptamine South Bend Cubs

Tryptamine

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Very pleased with this. Was a much-needed bat in the lineup. Didn't he also play third base?

 

Now gotta get a starter or two and some pen help. A Carlos Correa won't be bad either.

 

One more bat, another mid tier starter and you can almost squint and see a competent team.

Tryptamine South Bend Cubs

Tryptamine

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Attending a non-dome game in Japan would be a highlight of my life.

 

Games in Japan are incredibly fun. I went to a game of the Japan Series in Fukuoka back in 2011. It's such a positive atmosphere and no drunken morons ruining things. There's big cheering sections and every player has a walk up song that the cheering sections sing.

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