Former Cubs

[LBiittner]

Mike shildt of the padres will be looking for a job tomorrow. He let Dylan Cease pitch 9 innings

[PackLandVA]

Where would the Cubs be today if they had signed (because TR approved the expense increase) Baez, Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, and Schwarber to long-term extensions?? Or even if they signed half of them?  Yikes!

[LBiittner]

Just now, PackLandVA said:

Where would the Cubs be today if they had signed (because TR approved the expense increase) Baez, Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, and Schwarber to long-term extensions?? Or even if they signed half of them?  Yikes!

Probably 4 consecutive non playoff seasons

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Mike shildt of the padres will be looking for a job tomorrow. He let Dylan Cease pitch 9 innings

Wrong thread. Too many threads my head hurts

[Bobson Dugnutt]

On 7/25/2024 at 8:22 PM, LBiittner said:

Wrong thread. Too many threads my head hurts

Nah, you’re good. Former Cubs prospect Dylan Cease. It fits.

Edited July 27, 2024 by Bobson Dugnutt

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Christopher Morel has homered in back to back games. He used to play for the cubs.

[gflore34]

On 7/31/2024 at 10:00 PM, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Christopher Morel has homered in back to back games. He used to play for the cubs.

Followed up with 2 K’s and an error on an easy DP GB

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Followed up with 2 K’s and an error on an easy DP GB

His defense will kill his value. The only glove he should ever wear are batting gloves.

[gflore34]

45 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

His defense will kill his value. The only glove he should ever wear are batting gloves.

But, but, are the Rays infallible wizards at  “fixing” players?

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

But, but, are the Rays infallible wizards at  “fixing” players?

Well through 3 games he's more or less the same guy he was here. He's 2/13, those 2 hits just happen to be HRs.

[gflore34]

50 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Well through 3 games he's more or less the same guy he was here. He's 2/13, those 2 hits just happen to be HRs.

Just being sarcastic, there’s a real good chance he never be more than what he was as a Cub.

[jersey cubs fan]

Goddamn I miss Schwarber. How this private equity focused bunch of goombas screwed that up is inexcusable 

[Tryptamine]

25 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

https://pitcherlist.com/on-dj-herz-potential-and-the-importance-of-a-good-foundation/

Really cool read on DJ Herz, who looks like a ML SP (certainly some kind of impactful P) with upside potential to develop moving forward. Impressive what good health and the athleticism to translate coaching to performance can do, and how it’s easier than ever to see trees/flaws (BBs) but not a forest (he was Actually a very good even SP-y MiLB prospect pitcher on the whole). The article talks about how impressive the fastball is playing, providing an opportunity/buying time to flesh out a mix of secondaries that all flash potential. He probably won’t be throwing 60% FBs at peak, but it’s impressive and promising to see him get away with it at all. CJ Wilson’s a name that comes to mind 

There's a good chance we end up really regretting that trade. The peripherals are very good for a rookie. He has mid rotation arm written all over him.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

DJ Herz is likely a deluxe version of latter career Drew Smyly, or in terms of total value not dissimilar to Assad.  Useful guy to have in your bullpen or sucking up some starts as a 5 and dive guy, but not a rotation anchor or someone who is served being in a playoff rotation

[Tryptamine]

26 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

DJ Herz is likely a deluxe version of latter career Drew Smyly, or in terms of total value not dissimilar to Assad.  Useful guy to have in your bullpen or sucking up some starts as a 5 and dive guy, but not a rotation anchor or someone who is served being in a playoff rotation

I mean over a full season of starts(30), he's on 2.3 fWAR pace. if you're running that guy out as your #5 or even your #4, you could one heck of a lot worse. 

[Bertz]

I'm very curious about Herz slashing his walk rate so aggressively in MLB compared to what he did in the minors, including this year with the Nats AAA club.

Feels like he either had a mechanical breakthrough with the Nats right before his callup, or it's some SSS weirdness.  Given the amount of funk he has I'd assume the latter but hopefully for his sake it's the former.  Greg Zumach and so seemed to indicate he's a cool dude.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I mean over a full season of starts(30), he's on 2.3 fWAR pace. if you're running that guy out as your #5 or even your #4, you could one heck of a lot worse. 

He's not making a full season of starts at this level of performance.  His repertoire is based heavily on deception which expires quickly, he's facing 20 hitters a game because his OPS against the 3rd time through the order is 1.259.  Throughout his minor league career he had a terrible time throwing strikes, that's fortunately improved but at the expense of a very poor HR rate from his unremarkable stuff living in the zone. If he has to pitch with the 2023 ball it's gonna be a difficult choice between pounding the zone like he has and giving up 1-2 HR/game or trying to work the edges and spiking his walk rate/pitch count(which will accelerate the unvirtuous cycle of getting him to the 3rd time thru the order).  

He's not a garbage player or anything, and I can see the argument for preferring him on a roster to someone like Assad who is more purely getting by on guile that has less structural reason to be repeatable.  But that just means he'd maybe be as high as 7th on the Cubs SP depth chart, and we don't have to lament trading away that caliber of player.

[Jason Ross]

I think Herz is getting really, really lucky. 

He's throwing a lot of pitches belt high. And the most frequent zone of strikes is "middle-middle". Regardless of velo, MLB hitters hit mid-mid a ton. His mid-mid wOBA is under .300 but his xwOBA is in the ,330. League mid-mid is a wOBA over .400! 56% of his mid-mid pitches are fastballs. League mid-mid is 38%. Now, Maybe DJ Herz is capable of throwing his fastball mid-mid more than others by a lot and get away with it, but there's not much in his profile to suggest it. Savant has his fastball run value in the 63rd percentile - above average but not something you'd assume to see a .100+ point better-than-league-averageon-mid-mid pitches. Hitters in general have a ,338 wOBA against his fastball, league average on fastballs is .336 - there should be no reason he's so much better when tossing the pitch right down the shoot. The lowest swing% he has in in 0-0 counts and he's throwing more fastballs in that count than any other count that isn't 3-0 and 2-0. He's also below average on mid-mid swings.

So what you have is a guy who's throwing a lot of mid-mid fastballs early in the count and hitters who are letting them go. He's getting ahead of hitters because of that. League wide numbers jump significantly if you get ahead 0-1 or your numbers dip significantly if you get behind 1-0. Even when hitters are swinging at his mid-mid stuff he's getting favorable results despite not having a fastball profile that would suggest that to be the case. 

Eventually, this is going to catch up to DJ Herz. Hitters are going to swing more often early in the count. They'll likely get used to a funky delivery and hit his fastball around league average (the way his total fastball wOBA mirrors league average) in mid-mid situations. When that happens he's going to regress. He'll either start to get tagged or be forced off piping fastballs early in the count which could cause him to go with a former pitch mix that was more conducive to the walk totals rising. 

Regardless, I don't think this is a pattern for long term success. He's not a dumpster fire of an MLB player, but I think he's going to eventually get found out. When that happens, I think he's going to have to find a new way to get guys out and based on his history of strike throwing, my confidence on that is...iffy at best. 

 

[Post Count Padder]

Although I get annoyed thinking about what could have been, I do enjoy seeing former Cubs draft picks and farmhands do well elsewhere. The Astros are getting unlikely solid seasons from Tayler Scott (5th rounder in 2011) and Bryan King (30th rounder in 2019). The 30th round doesn't even exist anymore. And Scott is a cool story, being from South Africa and it taking 8 years to even reach the majors after being drafted, let alone breaking out at 32.

[Post Count Padder]

On 8/21/2024 at 2:46 PM, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t expect the Cubs will ever “miss” Herz, acquiring talent is too cheap and easy to miss anyone not on the roster who isn’t an immediate forever starter super mega ultra duper star. That said it seems obvious he has more post-hype/debut growth potential than Assad, who usually only runs two “good” pitches and has never missed bats or posted even an average CSW even when throwing 2 MPH harder than today. I expect ups and downs, in and out of rotations because that’s the nature of the beast, but btw the two would say Herz will have the longer career 

Assad is a kitchen sink pitcher and he has made it work. Fangraphs did a write up recently about how he's made it work and it seems like it shouldn't last but it does so maybe he's unlocked something. 

I liked Herz a lot but I always assumed he'd end up a middle reliever. He's getting a shot on a bad team and I will be rooting for him to succeed but I don't think he'll stay in the rotation long term.

[Post Count Padder]

The Cardinals are moving Contreras to first base. As much as I love him, I'm glad we didnt give him that contract.

[LBiittner]

Kinda shocking to think Brandon Hyde has been oriole manager for 6 seasons and returning for 7th next year. Seems like yesterday he was wearing cub pinstripes. And now I'm questioning why cubby brass didn't view him as a viable successor to Joe.

[CubinNY]

51 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Kinda shocking to think Brandon Hyde has been oriole manager for 6 seasons and returning for 7th next year. Seems like yesterday he was wearing cub pinstripes. And now I'm questioning why cubby brass didn't view him as a viable successor to Joe.

he was hired well before Joe was fired. 

[JBears79]

13 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Madrigal dislocated his left shoulder today. Is this injury more common these days? Wonder why

Least surprising thing Ive heard today. 

Edited February 24, 2025 by JBears79

[Irrelevant Dude]

15 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Madrigal dislocated his left shoulder today.

Oh man, that's really going to sap his power.