NL Central: Reds, Pirates and others

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Beginning to think the Cubs aren't going to win the division. Damn you Tom for getting our hopes up.

[CubinNY]

Beginning to think the Cubs aren't going to win the division. Damn you Tom for getting our hopes up.

And the Brewers are a mediocre team and running away with the division.

[Sammy Sofa]

This dude ranting like the Cubs have better than maybe a, what, 7% chance of winning the division?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Beginning to think the Cubs aren't going to win the division. Damn you Tom for getting our hopes up.

 

The VBs simply have to maintain first for 68 games/2.5 months with a still crap offense and alot of the meat on their pitching staff entering uncharted territory. What could go wrong?!

 

I love how you mention their offense sucks as if ours is bounds better. We're a 91 and they're a 90. Since June began we are dead last at 79 and they are 12th at 105.

 

Its done dude. Just drop the charade.

[squally1313]

1.5% per FG!

 

Completely ignoring that the lead that have to maintain is, for our purposes, nine point five horsefeathering games. Completely ignoring the other two teams who have outplayed us, record wise, this year. Let's say he's right though, just for fun! Let's say the Brewers play the rest of the year like a mediocre team, like, say, the Cubs so far this year. That's 33-34 for the rest of the year, or an 89 win season. In what world do you see the Cubs going 43-25 to finish the year?

[Sammy Sofa]

Beginning to think the Cubs aren't going to win the division. Damn you Tom for getting our hopes up.

 

The VBs simply have to maintain first for 68 games/2.5 months with a still crap offense and alot of the meat on their pitching staff entering uncharted territory. What could go wrong?!

 

I love how you mention their offense sucks as if ours is bounds better. We're a 91 and they're a 90. Since June began we are dead last at 79 and they are 12th at 105.

 

Its done dude. Just drop the charade.

 

And he's acting like it's somehow just a matter of the Cubs outpacing/lasting the Brewers, as opposed to the Brewers AND the two other teams technically ahead of the Cubs right now.

[Sammy Sofa]

This dude ranting like the Cubs have better than maybe a, what, 7% chance of winning the division?

 

Turns out I was WAY too generous.

 

538 has them with a 4% chance of winning the division.

 

Fangraphs with the 1.4(!!!!!!!)% chance.

 

Keep horsefeathering that chicken, dude.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Willing to give Tom $1,500 if the Cubs win the division if he will give me $100 if they don't.

[Sammy Sofa]

What the horsefeathers was that.

[Outshined_One]

The last six years have completely obliterated my ability to tell the differences between trolling and delusion.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Willing to give Tom $1,500 if the Cubs win the division if he will give me $100 if they don't.

Are you me, too?

[jersey cubs fan]

This dude ranting like the Cubs have better than maybe a, what, 7% chance of winning the division?

 

Turns out I was WAY too generous.

 

538 has them with a 4% chance of winning the division.

 

Fangraphs with the 1.4(!!!!!!!)% chance.

 

Keep horsefeathering that chicken, dude.

[soccer10k]

Since June began we are dead last at 79 and they are 12th at 105.

 

Its done dude. Just drop the charade.

 

Isn’t it fun how the sample sizes have to shrink dramatically for the Brewers to have a clearly better team?

 

I’m just one of those carazies out there who needs more than minute info and partial results, sorry to the offended. I’m still not fully indoctrinated on the post-covid sports analysis, don’t see the same fire you do over something as leisurely as a 54 out sport played 162 times during the spring/summer/early fall

 

Boy do I have some good news for you if you don’t want to worry about sample sizes!

 

Because you could just look at the standings and tell the Brewers are better.

 

9.5 games better in the standings.

10.5 games better in pythag.

They’ve scored more runs than the Cubs

They’ve allowed fewer runs than the Cubs

Projected to win 92 games to the Cubs 79 per Fangraphs

Projected to win 92 games to the Cubs 81 per 538

Projected to win 93 games to the Cubs 82 per BP.

[Backtobanks]

Since June began we are dead last at 79 and they are 12th at 105.

 

Its done dude. Just drop the charade.

 

Isn’t it fun how the sample sizes have to shrink dramatically for the Brewers to have a clearly better team?

 

I’m just one of those carazies out there who needs more than minute info and partial results, sorry to the offended. I’m still not fully indoctrinated on the post-covid sports analysis, don’t see the same fire you do over something as leisurely as a 54 out sport played 162 times during the spring/summer/early fall

 

Boy do I have some good news for you if you don’t want to worry about sample sizes!

 

Because you could just look at the standings and tell the Brewers are better.

 

9.5 games better in the standings.

10.5 games better in pythag.

They’ve scored more runs than the Cubs

They’ve allowed fewer runs than the Cubs

Projected to win 92 games to the Cubs 79 per Fangraphs

Projected to win 92 games to the Cubs 81 per 538

Projected to win 93 games to the Cubs 82 per BP.

 

You're just cherry picking.

[Sammy Sofa]

You keep talking about COVID like it's somehow made all baseball data from 2020 and this season totally nebulous.

[javy knows my name]

Volatile and dynamic come to mind before nebulous. Kinda like how the Brewers went from 4th place in 2020 to perhaps the most powerful, dominant opponent these Cubs have yet seen

 

Lol I hate you so much

[Sammy Sofa]

Every Tom post:

 

[Sammy Sofa]

And the Brewers being in 4th place last year was them being 5 games back after only 60 games. There's not some kind of stupid timey-wimey, disease malaise, nonsense reason for the numbers last year like you keep pretending; it was basically just like the season got chopped of after only 60 games. Possibly making up 5 games with 102 games to go is actually A Thing.

 

The Cubs, by contrast, are in and out of 4th place on a daily basis, 8-9 games back after 95 horsefeathering games.

 

Trying to act like these are the same situation "BECAUSE COVID!!!!!!" is horsefeathering stupid.

[squally1313]

Also no one is saying that they're that good. They're not! If you wanted to sell me on 'Cubs outperforming the Brewers the rest of the year', sure, maybe I would listen. But the Cubs are not 100 percentage points better than the Brewers, or really anywhere close. They played, and lost, too many games, which sucks because the division was very gettable until a few weeks ago. Now it's very much not.

 

(Unless this whole thing is a bit, in which case, please stop. It's barely funny when the funnier people here do it.)

[Sammy Sofa]

[Bull]

What the horsefeathers was that.

If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I’m going to be a very rich man.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, that reminds me:

 

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Given the fact that no NL Central team really tried to win the offseason -- Cards got Nolan, yes -- and that many had/have mediocre rosters, who would have thought the Brewers would have the division locked up before July is even over? It helps to have three No. 1 pitchers in the rotation, I suppose, which is even more important since their star offensive player has slugged like a light-hitting shortstop since 2020.

[Derwood]

Reds are 8-1 vs. the Pirates this year and have outscored them 77-24

[Tryptamine]

Pretty funny that right now the #1(Arozarena) and #2(A.Garcia) odds on favorites to win AL ROY are former cardinals. The #3 in the NL, Wisdom, is also a former Card. How things have changed over the last 10 years.