Winter Meetings Thread (?)

[Cubswin11]

Stupid 3-team trade idea of the day.....

 

Cubs get: Chris Archer, Brandon McCarthy and some minor leaguer(s)

Dodgers get: Evan Longoria, Colome, Arrieta and Szczur

Rays get: Urias, De Leon, Puig, Happ, Jeimer and some other minor league stuff

[davell]

The Dodgers wouldn't give up Urias for 3 years of Sale. I doubt there's 10 players in baseball they'd move him for. One year of Jake certainly isn't getting him.

[Cubswin11]

The Dodgers wouldn't give up Urias for 3 years of Sale. I doubt there's 10 players in baseball they'd move him for. One year of Jake certainly isn't getting him.

They're also getting Longoria at 3B for 6/94 who's a year younger than Turner who is going to cost about the same in AAV to bring back and taking care of their closer/late inning spot without giving a 5-6 year contract and ~$100 million to Jansen. It's not just Urias for Jake. But like I said it was just a stupid 3-team trade I came up with.

[Tryptamine]

Rockies are in deep talks with Trumbo. Would then play him at first, move Desmond back into the outfield and trade Blackmon for pitching.

If that happens I could see Blackmon to the Cardinals for Weaver as the main piece.

 

Supposedly the Rockies asked Toronto for Stroman in a Blackmon trade

[Guancous]

Rockies are in deep talks with Trumbo. Would then play him at first, move Desmond back into the outfield and trade Blackmon for pitching.

If that happens I could see Blackmon to the Cardinals for Weaver as the main piece.

 

Supposedly the Rockies asked Toronto for Stroman in a Blackmon trade

 

Marcus Stroman would send his dad after Toronto's front office.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

My sleeper on Jansen is the Mets.

 

The team that is broke and has to cut payroll is going to give 80+ to a reliever? Umm no.

[davell]

Realistically, I don't think there's any team in on Kenley, outside of the Dodgers, Marlins, and Nats. And I think I believe he actually winds up a Marlin.

 

But, if there WAS a mystery team that winds up with Kenley?

 

Its US. We could do it and stay under the LT. We've got money falling off next year and can trade for our next big time SP and continue to stay under it, even with the arb raises coming up soon for the kids.....

 

We could truly go with a 2 closer approach that each guy winds up with 30 saves.

[davell]

The Cubs would be a mystery team because no one expects it NOW, with us trading for Davis already. I think we'd qualify.

 

Theo came out of nowhere on Carl Crawford, so we know its possible. We keep saying we're building tons of depth for the pen. Hell, Wade Davis even said yesterday he doesn't care which inning he pitches.

 

The loss of a draft pick would suck, but we're losing one this year or next anyway, almost assuredly. (And i get some don't even care, but the FO wants to have a system to trade from and we will need to trade for an SP soon)With the comp pick for Dex, a good case can be made it'd be better to lose it this year.

 

With this new 10 Day DL......I think our plan is to manipulate the horsefeathers out of it. With depth in the pen, every guy could see that list once(maybe even twice) and stay fresher, heading into the postseason. General fatigue, arm fatigue, horsefeathering head cold.....Just figure we'll use it a bunch, as will others.

 

And yeah, this is obviously a super long shot. But, I think we could see a Blevins or even Holland type addition still, assuming Kenley does wind up elsewhere.

[profisme]

The loss of a draft pick would suck, but we're losing one this year or next anyway, almost assuredly. (And i get some don't even care, but the FO wants to have a system to trade from and we will need to trade for an SP soon)With the comp pick for Dex, a good case can be made it'd be better to lose it this year.

 

I guess I am not sure what you are referring to here. With Arrieta and Davis most likely receiving the QO next year, the Cubs would be gaining 2 compensatory picks. It would not surprise me if they offer Lackey the QO as well which would result in the lower-tiered compensatory pick. Are you assuming they will sign a FA who has a pick attached next offseason?

[davell]

The loss of a draft pick would suck, but we're losing one this year or next anyway, almost assuredly. (And i get some don't even care, but the FO wants to have a system to trade from and we will need to trade for an SP soon)With the comp pick for Dex, a good case can be made it'd be better to lose it this year.

 

I guess I am not sure what you are referring to here. With Arrieta and Davis most likely receiving the QO next year, the Cubs would be gaining 2 compensatory picks. It would not surprise me if they offer Lackey the QO as well which would result in the lower-tiered compensatory pick. Are you assuming they will sign a FA who has a pick attached next offseason?

 

Yeah, I expect us to sign one and what we'll receive back is a lower pick.

[profisme]

The loss of a draft pick would suck, but we're losing one this year or next anyway, almost assuredly. (And i get some don't even care, but the FO wants to have a system to trade from and we will need to trade for an SP soon)With the comp pick for Dex, a good case can be made it'd be better to lose it this year.

 

I guess I am not sure what you are referring to here. With Arrieta and Davis most likely receiving the QO next year, the Cubs would be gaining 2 compensatory picks. It would not surprise me if they offer Lackey the QO as well which would result in the lower-tiered compensatory pick. Are you assuming they will sign a FA who has a pick attached next offseason?

 

Yeah, I expect us to sign one and what we'll receive back is a lower pick.

 

Ok. Just wanted to clarify. I know that next year's class is light-years better than this year's FA class. Depending upon how Davis performs this year though, the Cubs may offer him the QO and then sign him themselves because they won't have to give up a pick to do it.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

The loss of a draft pick would suck, but we're losing one this year or next anyway, almost assuredly. (And i get some don't even care, but the FO wants to have a system to trade from and we will need to trade for an SP soon)With the comp pick for Dex, a good case can be made it'd be better to lose it this year.

 

I guess I am not sure what you are referring to here. With Arrieta and Davis most likely receiving the QO next year, the Cubs would be gaining 2 compensatory picks. It would not surprise me if they offer Lackey the QO as well which would result in the lower-tiered compensatory pick. Are you assuming they will sign a FA who has a pick attached next offseason?

 

 

[toonsterwu]

On Jansen, I think it's realistically Marlins or Dodgers. It's possible that the Nationals could backload it insanely, and Rizzo is a good closer on these things, but it feels like it's Marlins or Dodgers, and I tend to think it's the Marlins as well.

 

Mildly interesting thing to me is that I don't know if I see the Dodgers jumping in on David Robertson. Same with the Marlins. I think the White Sox are hoping for that to happen, but tend to think Robertson may be limited to the Nationals, barring a sleeper surprise. That leads to the secondary question - if not Robertson for the main loser of Jansen, then who? Friedman isn't foolish enough that he would absolutely have to have a proven closer, so I could see him exploring multiple arms. This reminds me of a rumor last week that I forgot all about - supposedly, Brad Brach was only going to cost Mallex Smith and more. Now, we don't know what more is, but it sounded like Mallex Smith was the centerpiece. If that's the case, that's something the Dodgers could jump in on (or they could try to pry Britton, but while that would seem prudent for an Orioles franchise floundering in place in some respects, I don't think they do that).

[d_money]

Question on the Tyson Ross surgery - how successful is the recovery? I don't even know how to spell his condition but with other injuries like TJS, the results can be fairly predictable with the number of surgeries. But with Ross - what is the likelihood he returns to his old self?

[David]

Question on the Tyson Ross surgery - how successful is the recovery? I don't even know how to spell his condition but with other injuries like TJS, the results can be fairly predictable with the number of surgeries. But with Ross - what is the likelihood he returns to his old self?

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/1/8859137/thoracic-outlet-syndrome-pitcher-effectiveness

[craig]

...The loss of a draft pick would suck, but we're losing one this year or next anyway, almost assuredly. (And i get some don't even care, but the FO wants to have a system to trade from and we will need to trade for an SP soon),,,.

 

Next year, losing a pick will cost only a 3rd round pick. Much reduced disincentive then. (Which was obviously the point of that CBA revision.)

 

And we'll only get 2nd round comp picks, rather than first, if we lose Arrieta or Davis.

 

Agree that good chance that next year we'll be signing a FA rotation guy. Whether that's Arrieta or somebody else, time will tell.

 

The Montgomery rotation experiment is going to be really interesting, and impactful long-term. If he were to settle in as a perfectly respectable rotation guy, rotation planning gets a lot simpler.

 

Much can change in a year. None of our prospect pitchers seem compelling or close right now, and most likely that will seem likewise true 12 months from now. But I'm optimistic that Clifton, de la Cruz, and Cease will all progress well this year. And Zastryzny as well. Obviously I'm an eternal optimist, but I totally get that all of these guys will have setbacks, and 12 months from now none will look like future rotation assets, much less 2018-ready guys. And obviously Cease is at best several years away, more on schedule for when Hendricks hits free agency. But, if Montgomery shows solid, and they resign Arrieta or somebody better, all you'll be looking for is depth and 5th starter.

 

AS we saw in 2015, you can kind of wing it at 5th starter (Wood, Wada, Beeler, Richard, Haren....). *IF* Z is going to ever become a rotation guy, a year from now might be the time to give him his shot. *IF* Clifton is ever going to become a rotation asset, good chance he'd be ready by summer 2018, even if not necessarily April. And *IF* de la cruz is ever going to become a rotation asset, he'll probably have a good 2017 and end up in Double AA, looking to be ready by the end of 2018 if not before.

 

So, what I'm rambling to is that *IF* one or more from the Zastryzny, Clifton, and de la Cruz group have good seasons, by next winter they'd look to be ready within one year or less. (By or before the opening of 2019.) In which case, the Cubs might not be looking to pick up a 5-year-FA to replace Lackey. Rather, they might be looking towards a place-holder short-term guy, who won't break the budget in FA or have long-term budget impact.

 

Put differently, it may be that for 2019, the four spots other than Arrieta may all be filled by guys presently within the organization.

 

I'm an optimist, of course.

[d_money]

Question on the Tyson Ross surgery - how successful is the recovery? I don't even know how to spell his condition but with other injuries like TJS, the results can be fairly predictable with the number of surgeries. But with Ross - what is the likelihood he returns to his old self?

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/1/8859137/thoracic-outlet-syndrome-pitcher-effectiveness

I guess I didn't realize all these guys had this issue/condition. Recovery still seems a little iffy.

[Cubswin11]

Question on the Tyson Ross surgery - how successful is the recovery? I don't even know how to spell his condition but with other injuries like TJS, the results can be fairly predictable with the number of surgeries. But with Ross - what is the likelihood he returns to his old self?

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/1/8859137/thoracic-outlet-syndrome-pitcher-effectiveness

I guess I didn't realize all these guys had this issue/condition. Recovery still seems a little iffy.

Harvey had the surgery last year too and is what he's attempting to come back from as well. FWIW

[Liam Neeson]

[Bobson Dugnutt]

 

This seems like an incredibly reasonable ask to me.

[Cubswin11]

 

This seems like an incredibly reasonable ask to me.

Yeah, that's not really a huge ask. Surprised the Astros wouldn't have done that, if that was really the deal.

[imb]

maybe the white sox are cutting them a break since they got such a good deal in the sale/eaton trades

[imb]

Question on the Tyson Ross surgery - how successful is the recovery? I don't even know how to spell his condition but with other injuries like TJS, the results can be fairly predictable with the number of surgeries. But with Ross - what is the likelihood he returns to his old self?

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/1/8859137/thoracic-outlet-syndrome-pitcher-effectiveness

 

Woof, that is horsefeathering damning.

[Cubswin11]

Nats trade Espinosa to the Angles.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Montgomery rotation experiment is going to be really interesting, and impactful long-term. If he were to settle in as a perfectly respectable rotation guy, rotation planning gets a lot simpler.

 

Much can change in a year. None of our prospect pitchers seem compelling or close right now, and most likely that will seem likewise true 12 months from now. But I'm optimistic that Clifton, de la Cruz, and Cease will all progress well this year. And Zastryzny as well. Obviously I'm an eternal optimist, but I totally get that all of these guys will have setbacks, and 12 months from now none will look like future rotation assets, much less 2018-ready guys. And obviously Cease is at best several years away, more on schedule for when Hendricks hits free agency. But, if Montgomery shows solid, and they resign Arrieta or somebody better, all you'll be looking for is depth and 5th starter.

 

I know a lot of people want to slot Montgomery into the bullpen given the lack of lefties but I really would like to see Montgomery start so we know what he can bring in 2018. If Montgomery has an important spot in the 2018 rotation, I really don't want to push him to 175+ IP coming off a full season in the bullpen. He'd still be able to pitch in the 2017 playoff bullpen.