Hammel/Samardzija Traded to A's for Russell/McKinney/Straily

[TruffleShuffle]

all of this just underscores how patently moronic the service time rules are.

[Thrilho]

So all I've been able to think about over the past two days is:

 

1. Who goes if the Cubs make a deal for Stanton

2. If they all stay, where do they play?

 

 

If they all stay, the biggest question is who plays short. I'm not great with advanced defensive metrics, so I stuck with fielding percentage and range factor:

 

Baez Fielding% RF

2012 .950 4.31

2013 .932 4.88

2014 .965 4.05

Total .941 4.46

 

 

Russell

2012 .951 4.06

2013 .966 3.97

2014 .968 4.07

Total .962 3.94

 

Castro - Minors

2007 .943 4.71

2008 .955 5.10

2009 .937 4.86

2010 .953 3.92

Total .944 4.73

 

Castro - Majors

2010 .950 4.20

2011 .961 4.51

2012 .964 4.51

2013 .967 4.11

2014 .970 4.19

Total .962 4.33

 

 

...or if you'd prefer a simpler table, here are the careers:

 

Player Fielding RF

Baez .941 4.46

Russell .962 3.94

Castro Minors .944 4.73

Castro Majors .962 4.33

 

 

 

Some things I see:

 

Castro had the highest minor league RF by a wide margin (4.73) but it dropped to around 4.20 his rookie year. It bumped up to 4.51 for two years, but has settled in at 4.20. His fielding percentage has been on a steady upward march from .950 to .970.

 

Russell overall the steadiest fielder of the three, but has consistently been around 4.00 range. For reference, since they've been compared a lot, Barry Larkin had a career .955 fielding% and 4.45 RF in the minors, and didn't have a range factor under 4.40 until he was 31.

 

Baez had huge range (4.88) last year, but that was coupled with a .932 fielding percentage. This year, he's pretty much matched Russell's career totals at .965 / 4.06.

 

 

All three guys are 6'0" 190-195. All three could probably pack on more weight if you put them at third. Castro had to get bigger over the offseason just to get to his current size, while you're uncertain how big Russell and Baez will get.

 

(Speculation time)

 

Castro still has 4.20 range at 24 at his current size, and has steadily improved his fielding percentage. If I had to guess I'd guess he stays at short.

 

If Russell continues his current career arc, with the steady fielding percentage and moderate range, I'd guess he's at third. Baez showed the 4.88 range last year, and hasn't gotten quite the scouting marks for level-headedness and consistency that Russell has gotten, so I'd probably have him at second using the range and making the shorter throw.

 

I think you could benefit from the increased power of either Russell or Baez bulking up for third. You might get the most bang for your buck out of Javy, though. I also think that, just based on those numbers, you could sell Baez as a short stop to the Marlins.

 

Any way you cut it though, if you start all three of these guys along with Rizzo, Bosio is going to be a happy man.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Thrilho

[CubColtPacer]

kris bryant not being on the opening day roster next year is going to be such BS

 

I can wait an extra three weeks to keep him an extra year.

 

Or we could pay to have him that extra year rather than potentially cost us games in a year where we can't afford to throw away our slim margin for competition.

 

If he's any good at all, you just paid like $20m for 15 games of him. Nobody does that.

 

If you think there's any chance of doing that, just bring him up now to get extra time to adjust.

 

If they only keep him down until late April, he'll be a Super 2. The Cubs will have that extra year of team control, but they're just creating a 4th year of arbitration by delaying free agency a year. Is 4th year of arbitration money and 1st year of free agency money that big of difference?

 

The money really changes if they kept him down close to half the season next year, but I doubt they'll do that.

[MWV]

Is 4th year of arbitration money and 1st year of free agency money that big of difference?

It's a big difference in terms of leverage, IMO. It gives the Cubs one more year to potentially buy out/one more year before he gets the opportunity to test an open market.

[TruffleShuffle]

i like how straily isn't even part of the deal in the thread title.

[Guest]

i like how straily isn't even part of the deal in the thread title.

 

He might be if Samardzija didn't have such a long name.

 

(I actually forgot about him when I edited the thread title.)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So all I've been able to think about over the past two days is:

 

1. Who goes if the Cubs make a deal for Stanton

2. If they all stay, where do they play?

 

1. Baez

2. Baez-Russell-Castro 3b-SS-2b

 

There, that seems easy enough.

[Thrilho]

So all I've been able to think about over the past two days is:

 

1. Who goes if the Cubs make a deal for Stanton

2. If they all stay, where do they play?

 

1. Baez

2. Baez-Russell-Castro 3b-SS-2b

 

There, that seems easy enough.

 

 

I think it would be Baez to Miami too. I'd think they would want to get some big raw power to sell to the fans. A deal starting with Baez and Soler makes the most sense to me.

[Thrilho]

So all I've been able to think about over the past two days is:

 

1. Who goes if the Cubs make a deal for Stanton

2. If they all stay, where do they play?

 

1. Baez

2. Baez-Russell-Castro 3b-SS-2b

 

There, that seems easy enough.

 

 

I said Baez at 2B in my post, but I can easily see him at third. You could probably let him bulk up more if he's a middle of the lineup guy vs Russell, who may be better off keeping his speed and hitting at the top of the order.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I just like the idea of Castro at 2b, which plays to his strength (tons of range) and alleviates his weakness (having to make plays quickly).

[Guest]

with all these shortstops everywhere, how ridiculously good is our IF defense going to be while all having plus bats

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's weird to me that even with his lost 2 MPH on his fastball, Straily in MLB this year had a higher K-rate and higher swinging strike percentage than when he did in 2012 or 2013.

 

I don't want to be that stathead fan who just says anomalies are variance, but his 16.4% HR/FB ratio this year just looks like a big ol' pile of fluke, and the rest of his peripherals are fine for a BOR starter.

[Thrilho]

I just like the idea of Castro at 2b, which plays to his strength (tons of range) and alleviates his weakness (having to make plays quickly).

 

Seems like it could come down to the question of whether the Cubs prefer more range or more field pct out of their short stop. I'd be interested to hear from someone who has seen Russell play more whether they think his range will increase. Of active players, there are 25 with a range factor over 4.00 (Castro at #8 WITH 4.32). Jeter did make a pretty good career out of 3.80-4.00 range and .975+ fielding.

 

But with Castro, and I'm sure a lot of other players, his range decreased as he aged and got to the bigs. Russell has consistently been at 4.00. Does his range increase as he ages and potentially puts on more weight, or do you just count on his fielding to be that good?

[CubmanPi]

There's noise that Hendricks was pulled after two innings with Iowa yesterday, and that he may start for Chicago this week. Guess that could be the plan for the newly-open spot on the 40-man?

[Guest]

There's noise that Hendricks was pulled after two innings with Iowa yesterday, and that he may start for Chicago this week. Guess that could be the plan for the newly-open spot on the 40-man?

 

 

Correct.

[dawson1989]

So all I've been able to think about over the past two days is:

 

1. Who goes if the Cubs make a deal for Stanton

2. If they all stay, where do they play?

 

 

If they all stay, the biggest question is who plays short. I'm not great with advanced defensive metrics, so I stuck with fielding percentage and range factor:

 

Baez Fielding% RF

2012 .950 4.31

2013 .932 4.88

2014 .965 4.05

Total .941 4.46

 

 

Russell

2012 .951 4.06

2013 .966 3.97

2014 .968 4.07

Total .962 3.94

 

Castro - Minors

2007 .943 4.71

2008 .955 5.10

2009 .937 4.86

2010 .953 3.92

Total .944 4.73

 

Castro - Majors

2010 .950 4.20

2011 .961 4.51

2012 .964 4.51

2013 .967 4.11

2014 .970 4.19

Total .962 4.33

 

 

...or if you'd prefer a simpler table, here are the careers:

 

Player Fielding RF

Baez .941 4.46

Russell .962 3.94

Castro Minors .944 4.73

Castro Majors .962 4.33

 

 

 

Some things I see:

 

Castro had the highest minor league RF by a wide margin (4.73) but it dropped to around 4.20 his rookie year. It bumped up to 4.51 for two years, but has settled in at 4.20. His fielding percentage has been on a steady upward march from .950 to .970.

 

Russell overall the steadiest fielder of the three, but has consistently been around 4.00 range. For reference, since they've been compared a lot, Barry Larkin had a career .955 fielding% and 4.45 RF in the minors, and didn't have a range factor under 4.40 until he was 31.

 

Baez had huge range (4.88) last year, but that was coupled with a .932 fielding percentage. This year, he's pretty much matched Russell's career totals at .965 / 4.06.

 

 

All three guys are 6'0" 190-195. All three could probably pack on more weight if you put them at third. Castro had to get bigger over the offseason just to get to his current size, while you're uncertain how big Russell and Baez will get.

 

(Speculation time)

 

Castro still has 4.20 range at 24 at his current size, and has steadily improved his fielding percentage. If I had to guess I'd guess he stays at short.

 

If Russell continues his current career arc, with the steady fielding percentage and moderate range, I'd guess he's at third. Baez showed the 4.88 range last year, and hasn't gotten quite the scouting marks for level-headedness and consistency that Russell has gotten, so I'd probably have him at second using the range and making the shorter throw.

 

I think you could benefit from the increased power of either Russell or Baez bulking up for third. You might get the most bang for your buck out of Javy, though. I also think that, just based on those numbers, you could sell Baez as a short stop to the Marlins.

 

Any way you cut it though, if you start all three of these guys along with Rizzo, Bosio is going to be a happy man.

 

There's this dude named Alcantara who is already playing 2B and doing pretty well. My opinion is Castro has peaked at SS defense and while decent Russell will likely continue to improve for a few years. That would make him clearly better and thus should be the SS.

[jersey cubs fan]

I knew of Addison Russell prior to the trade and was under the impression he was a top notch defender and hitter. But after reading a lot of these reports on him it seems there were plenty of questions about where he would end up when he was drafted and still questions about his longterm defense at SS. Then, at the same time there seems to be no doubt that the consensus is he's now the team's best answer at the position. Which is it? Are those questions about his glove just nitpicky and/or no longer relevant?

[Guest]

I knew of Addison Russell prior to the trade and was under the impression he was a top notch defender and hitter. But after reading a lot of these reports on him it seems there were plenty of questions about where he would end up when he was drafted and still questions about his longterm defense at SS. Then, at the same time there seems to be no doubt that the consensus is he's now the team's best answer at the position. Which is it? Are those questions about his glove just nitpicky and/or no longer relevant?

It is more that there have been questions about whether all our shortstops would end up at shortstop.

[jersey cubs fan]

I knew of Addison Russell prior to the trade and was under the impression he was a top notch defender and hitter. But after reading a lot of these reports on him it seems there were plenty of questions about where he would end up when he was drafted and still questions about his longterm defense at SS. Then, at the same time there seems to be no doubt that the consensus is he's now the team's best answer at the position. Which is it? Are those questions about his glove just nitpicky and/or no longer relevant?

It is more that there have been questions about whether all our shortstops would end up at shortstop.

 

I'm talking specifically about the reports on Russell that have nothing to do with the Cubs. They all seemed to have questions on his defense.

[Guest]

I knew of Addison Russell prior to the trade and was under the impression he was a top notch defender and hitter. But after reading a lot of these reports on him it seems there were plenty of questions about where he would end up when he was drafted and still questions about his longterm defense at SS. Then, at the same time there seems to be no doubt that the consensus is he's now the team's best answer at the position. Which is it? Are those questions about his glove just nitpicky and/or no longer relevant?

It is more that there have been questions about whether all our shortstops would end up at shortstop.

 

I'm talking specifically about the reports on Russell that have nothing to do with the Cubs. They all seemed to have questions on his defense.

I believe a lot of those questions date from his time as a HS junior before he lost 20 lbs. There were many fewer doubts after he dropped that weight to improve his quickness. Raisin has probably followed him closest, though, so he'll be able to provide a more definitive answer.

[Banedon]

Boomer Esiason (yes, Boomer has baseball thoughts) just did a little blurb on the radio where he casually tossed out the idea that the A's "fleeced" Chicago in the Shark/Hammel trade, with no further elaboration.

[jersey cubs fan]

Boomer Esiason (yes, Boomer has baseball thoughts) just did a little blurb on the radio where he casually tossed out the idea that the A's "fleeced" Chicago in the Shark/Hammel trade, with no further elaboration.

 

Once you establish yourself as a successful pro, the only thing that ever matters are successful pros. There is no such thing as a prospect in that world.

[SouthSideRyan]

Boomer Esiason (yes, Boomer has baseball thoughts) just did a little blurb on the radio where he casually tossed out the idea that the A's "fleeced" Chicago in the Shark/Hammel trade, with no further elaboration.

 

Once you establish yourself as a successful pro, the only thing that ever matters are successful pros. There is no such thing as a prospect in that world.

 

Unless you're a pro Cub who knows about The Plan

[dcvalpo]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/madden-theo-epstein-forgets-game-moneyball-article-1.1856368

 

Check out this hot take.

[jersey cubs fan]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/madden-theo-epstein-forgets-game-moneyball-article-1.1856368

 

Check out this hot take.

 

He’s been rightfully acclaimed as a baseball genius, but he is also undoubtedly sick and tired of his critics constantly pointing out that he’s never won anything and never even made it to the World Series.

 

Never won anything? F that, the A's have won a lot of things.