Hammel/Samardzija Traded to A's for Russell/McKinney/Straily

[davell]

I'm pretty damn happy with this deal. The PTBNL could really sway this trade the Cubs way.

 

I like Straily quite a bit more than some on the board. The Cubs have had great success with pitchers like him. He's young (25) and isn't very far removed from pitching well in the AL. Just moving to the NL should help.

 

I wouldn't get hopes up on the PTBNL. Oaklands press release mentioned it OR cash. Which basically says its not important.

[Guest]

McKinney has a 10% walk rate in high A and a .62 BB/K ratio. Those peripherals are the definition of rock solid for a 19 year old in A+.

 

I do love that part and the increase in his IsoD as well, but the K rate went up and the production down (wOBA and wRC+ both dropped a lot).

 

yeah, but i think looking at peripherals rather than real production and value gives you better insight as to how a hitter will develop. there will likely be a drop in production to the next levels, for a time, with very young players.

Edited July 5, 2014 by Stannis

[Guest]

This is a great trade. A #3-4 pitcher and a reclamation project for a wealth of talent back.

 

On Castro, what if the FO thinks that he will never be better than what it is right now. While he's improved at taking pitches he's still not going as long into counts as Theo would like. His fielding is still shady at times, his throws at times are lazy and then there's his short attention span condition. What if their evaluation is: We've had 2 managers try to work with him and the progress has been slow. He just doesn't get it and this is his peak. His trade value to other clubs is as SS and that's what we're selling him as. He's not as a potential CF as what we have in our system and he'd fight the move.

 

you think SS's like Castro grow on trees?

[Guest]

I really think the PTBNL could be Overton...

 

Here is his scounting report from the 2013 draft:

 

The Sooners may have the best 1-2 pitching punch in college baseball, and it was Overton and not Jonathan Gray who began the season as the more likely first-round choice. They've flipped positions since then, with Gray vaulting into consideration for the No. 1 overall pick and Overton looking like more of a second-rounder after straining his forearm on April 20 and missing his next two starts. Though he's not physically imposing at 6-foot-2 and 160 pounds, Overton has topped out at 95 mph and shown three plus pitches at times. He often pitches in the low 90s with his fastball, which gains deception and life thanks to his crossfire delivery. His slider can be a wipeout pitch and his fading changeup also can elicit swings and misses. He has a loose arm and fills the strike zone with ease. Before Oklahoma shut him down, Overton's fastball had dipped to 87-90 mph and his slider had lost some power and morphed into more of a curveball. He continued to succeed with diminished stuff because he commands his offerings well. A 26th-round selection by the Red Sox in 2010 out of an Oklahoma high school, he draws comparisons to former Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Heaney, the ninth overall pick last year.

 

That forearm soreness obviously led to the TJS surgery this June. I could be way off here, but with him being a Theo pick in Boston in 2010 it wouldn't surprise me to see him be the guy.

[illiniguy]

This is a great trade. A #3-4 pitcher and a reclamation project for a wealth of talent back.

 

On Castro, what if the FO thinks that he will never be better than what it is right now. While he's improved at taking pitches he's still not going as long into counts as Theo would like. His fielding is still shady at times, his throws at times are lazy and then there's his short attention span condition. What if their evaluation is: We've had 2 managers try to work with him and the progress has been slow. He just doesn't get it and this is his peak. His trade value to other clubs is as SS and that's what we're selling him as. He's not as a potential CF as what we have in our system and he'd fight the move.

 

you think SS's like Castro grow on trees?

If they did, we own that tree. See Tim's list.

[dew1679666265]

Is he really though? I guess we will get a better idea over the next few months, but I think he's a 2-3 on a good team.

 

You have to project him to keep improving, but he's only been a full-time starter for three seasons, has posted around a 3 WAR each of the first two and is on pace to clear that easily this year. Cliff Lee was around the same age when he broke out and, while I'm not sure it's likely he'll be that good, Shark has the stuff and the circumstances to do something similar.

[sneakypower]

under-25 MLB SS:

 

Castro - .807 OPS

Bogaerts - .688

Simmons - .661

Miller - .611

Segura - .599

 

i'll keep Castro, thank you

[Guest]

This is a great trade. A #3-4 pitcher and a reclamation project for a wealth of talent back.

 

On Castro, what if the FO thinks that he will never be better than what it is right now. While he's improved at taking pitches he's still not going as long into counts as Theo would like. His fielding is still shady at times, his throws at times are lazy and then there's his short attention span condition. What if their evaluation is: We've had 2 managers try to work with him and the progress has been slow. He just doesn't get it and this is his peak. His trade value to other clubs is as SS and that's what we're selling him as. He's not as a potential CF as what we have in our system and he'd fight the move.

 

Uhhh... "what it is right now" is better than it's ever been, is already an All Star level talent, and is only a fairly freshly turned 24 years old. Oh, and locked up on a team friendly deal for a long time.

[cbbryan]

I'm pretty damn happy with this deal. The PTBNL could really sway this trade the Cubs way.

 

I like Straily quite a bit more than some on the board. The Cubs have had great success with pitchers like him. He's young (25) and isn't very far removed from pitching well in the AL. Just moving to the NL should help.

 

I wouldn't get hopes up on the PTBNL. Oaklands press release mentioned it OR cash. Which basically says its not important.

 

It'll be a while before we know if it's important or not. I'm happy with the return even if the PTBNL ends up being cash. My only point is that if the PTBNL ends up being a decent player, the Cubs win this deal hands down.

[sneakypower]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-athletics-trade-jeff-samardzija-jason-hammel-addison-russell-billy-mckinney/

 

The real winner here? Well, it just might be Andrew Friedman and the Tampa Bay Rays, who just saw two of the top available pitchers get moved while only one contender benefits, leaving the Mariners, Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays and everyone else to fight for Price. They might not get a prospect the caliber of Russell — there simply aren’t many in existence — but as that feeding frenzy gets going, the haul ought to be impressive. If this deal is any indication, July is going to be a blast.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-athletics-trade-jeff-samardzija-jason-hammel-addison-russell-billy-mckinney/

 

The real winner here? Well, it just might be Andrew Friedman and the Tampa Bay Rays, who just saw two of the top available pitchers get moved while only one contender benefits, leaving the Mariners, Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays and everyone else to fight for Price. They might not get a prospect the caliber of Russell — there simply aren’t many in existence — but as that feeding frenzy gets going, the haul ought to be impressive. If this deal is any indication, July is going to be a blast.

 

There's not many in existence and also the Cubs have most of them.

[abuck1220]

under-25 MLB SS:

 

Castro - .807 OPS

Bogaerts - .688

Simmons - .661

Miller - .611

Segura - .599

 

i'll keep Castro, thank you

 

yeah but does Castro "get it?"

[ChiCubsFan]

Yeah, I'll definitely keep Starlin.

[dew1679666265]

I think you are overvaluing shark a bit. He's not prime Roy Halladay and he's only under control for 18 months. Although he has been unlucky the last 2 seasons overall he's pitched more like a solid #2 or 3 pitcher. This year he started out great but has faded a bit despite his season numbers looking great. He's a very good sometimes great pitcher. Getting a top 5 prospect, a top 100 prospect and a lottery ticket/worse case serviceable starter is more than fair value for shark and Hammel.

 

If the cubs were contending this year I'd be pissed if the Cubs traded Bryant, Almora and Travis Wood for Shark and Hammel.

 

The bolded is a very good point. I wouldn't be pissed about it, but I value Shark very, very highly. I see him as a guy very much on the upswing due to the relative lack of starting experience he has (compared to your typical 29 year old). While I'm not saying he'll get that good, I think he could be a Cliff Lee type guy who breaks out in his late 20s/early 30s.

 

Even if he doesn't truly break out, he's still a 3 WAR pitcher with upside.

[dew1679666265]

McKinney has a 10% walk rate in high A and a .62 BB/K ratio. Those peripherals are the definition of rock solid for a 19 year old in A+.

 

I do love that part and the increase in his IsoD as well, but the K rate went up and the production down (wOBA and wRC+ both dropped a lot).

 

yeah, but i think looking at peripherals rather than real production and value gives you better insight as to how a hitter will develop. there will likely be a drop in production to the next levels, for a time, with very young players.

 

True and I'm not ignoring the peripherals, but I don't want to ignore the heightened K rate or the drop in production either.

[dew1679666265]

I really think the PTBNL could be Overton...

 

Here is his scounting report from the 2013 draft:

 

The Sooners may have the best 1-2 pitching punch in college baseball, and it was Overton and not Jonathan Gray who began the season as the more likely first-round choice. They've flipped positions since then, with Gray vaulting into consideration for the No. 1 overall pick and Overton looking like more of a second-rounder after straining his forearm on April 20 and missing his next two starts. Though he's not physically imposing at 6-foot-2 and 160 pounds, Overton has topped out at 95 mph and shown three plus pitches at times. He often pitches in the low 90s with his fastball, which gains deception and life thanks to his crossfire delivery. His slider can be a wipeout pitch and his fading changeup also can elicit swings and misses. He has a loose arm and fills the strike zone with ease. Before Oklahoma shut him down, Overton's fastball had dipped to 87-90 mph and his slider had lost some power and morphed into more of a curveball. He continued to succeed with diminished stuff because he commands his offerings well. A 26th-round selection by the Red Sox in 2010 out of an Oklahoma high school, he draws comparisons to former Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Heaney, the ninth overall pick last year.

 

That forearm soreness obviously led to the TJS surgery this June. I could be way off here, but with him being a Theo pick in Boston in 2010 it wouldn't surprise me to see him be the guy.

 

You think it'd be somebody that good? Indications have been that the PTBNL will be pretty insignificant.

[SouthSideRyan]

Was anyone concerned about Shark s midseason decline? He did it last year and this June he regressed.

He's done it every year he's started. I think there's definite reason to be concerned.

 

Samardzija had a 5.05 ERA at the end of June 2012 and finished with a 3.81 ERA. 1 year is not a pattern.

[davell]

I think the best deal to compare this to is the Myers/Shields swap.

 

It was Shields and Wade Davis for Myers, Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard.

 

Honestly, Shields was a bit more highly thought of than Shark at that time.

 

To me, Wade Davis and Hammel are hard to gauge. Davis was coming off a very solid year in the pen, Hammel just had the best 3 month stretch of his career. Davis had much more control and was hopeful of becoming a starter again.

 

All in all, I think Tampa's pair had slightly more value than ours.

 

Myers versus Russell? Myers was slightly closer, but SS trumps OF. Still, a wash?

 

It's easier to say Straily and Odorizzi are comparable than it is to try and put McKinney in the mix. At any rate, both were/are considered decent back of the rotation options that were ready to go.

 

That leaves McKinney and a PTBNL versus Montgomery and Leonard. Montgomery had lost all of his luster, Leonard was a top 20-30 org guy. I'd much rather have McKinney than that pair. Even at the time of the first deal. They were throw ins. As I suspect the PTBNL to be as well.

 

All in all, it seems like the value is directly in line with the Royals/Rays deal that everyone went gaga over the Rays return.....

[Guest]

Paul Sullivan ‏@PWSullivan 25s

Theo clears up positions: Javy SS, 2B, 3B or OF. Bryant 3B or RF. Arismendy 2B, SS or OF. Addison SS, 3B or 2B.

[RammyFanny]

Russell will play for Tennessee tomorrow according to his retweets.

[Guest]

Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat 33s

New #Cubs Russell to @smokiesbaseball and McKinney to @daytonacubs. #Cubs

 

no surprises here

[UMFan83]

Russell will play for Tennessee tomorrow according to his retweets.

 

Finally a reason to follow Tennessee again

[dew1679666265]

Was anyone concerned about Shark s midseason decline? He did it last year and this June he regressed.

He's done it every year he's started. I think there's definite reason to be concerned.

 

Samardzija had a 5.05 ERA at the end of June 2012 and finished with a 3.81 ERA. 1 year is not a pattern.

 

Shark 2012 ERA:

1st half - 4.71

2nd half - 2.58

 

Definitely not seeing a second half swoon there.

[dew1679666265]

I think the best deal to compare this to is the Myers/Shields swap.

 

It was Shields and Wade Davis for Myers, Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard.

 

Honestly, Shields was a bit more highly thought of than Shark at that time.

 

To me, Wade Davis and Hammel are hard to gauge. Davis was coming off a very solid year in the pen, Hammel just had the best 3 month stretch of his career. Davis had much more control and was hopeful of becoming a starter again.

 

All in all, I think Tampa's pair had slightly more value than ours.

 

Myers versus Russell? Myers was slightly closer, but SS trumps OF. Still, a wash?

 

It's easier to say Straily and Odorizzi are comparable than it is to try and put McKinney in the mix. At any rate, both were/are considered decent back of the rotation options that were ready to go.

 

That leaves McKinney and a PTBNL versus Montgomery and Leonard. Montgomery had lost all of his luster, Leonard was a top 20-30 org guy. I'd much rather have McKinney than that pair. Even at the time of the first deal. They were throw ins. As I suspect the PTBNL to be as well.

 

All in all, it seems like the value is directly in line with the Royals/Rays deal that everyone went gaga over the Rays return.....

 

Ok, that makes me feel a lot better. Good comparison, I think.

[Guest]

Russell will play for Tennessee tomorrow according to his retweets.

 

Finally a reason to follow Tennessee again

 

While we're at it, get Soler over there already.

 

If he really needs to be around whoever is working with him in AZ for some reason, then send those people too.