The Junior Lake thread

[North]

Unrelated to the Cubs implementation, but this is pretty cool:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21510

[Guest]

Here's an interesting superficial comparison:

 

Level  Age    AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS      K%   BB%
A+     20   .291/.350/.445/.795   18%    7%
AA     20   .223/.292/.383/.676   18%    6%   
AA     21   .283/.322/.448/.770   11%    5%
AAA    22   .304/.356/.513/.869   17%    7%
AAA    23   .295/.380/.511/.891   19%   11%

Level  Age    AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS      K%   BB%
A+     20   .264/.333/.398/.731   22%    8%
A+     21   .315/.336/.498/.834   23%    3%     
AA     21   .248/.300/.380/.680   23%    5%
AA     22   .279/.341/.432/.773   23%    8%
AAA    23   .295/.341/.462/.803   19%    6%

 

The first player is Vitters, the 2nd is Lake. The big difference is obviously that Lake hit pretty well in his initial call-up this year, while last year Vitters got humiliated in about 100 PAs. Their defensive reputations are also different, although IMO they are both LFs and aren't terribly different in that aspect. Food for thought on both sides of the Lake argument.

[sneakypower]

IMO they are both LFs and aren't terribly different in that aspect.

this has to be the craziest statement you've ever made; there's probably 1-2 wins difference there, i'd bet

[Guest]

IMO they are both LFs and aren't terribly different in that aspect.

this has to be the craziest statement you've ever made; there's probably 1-2 wins difference there, i'd bet

 

There's a ton of room for rounding there since there's so little info on either as OFs, so I don't doubt there's a bunch of variance in opinions. Personally I don't think Lake is much better than average in LF, and what I've read of Vitters makes me think he's not going to be some -10 disaster as an OF, which gets me to the above statement.

[Tracer Bullet]

IMO they are both LFs and aren't terribly different in that aspect.

this has to be the craziest statement you've ever made; there's probably 1-2 wins difference there, i'd bet

 

You must not read the cfb threads.

[Guest]

Free Vitters

[Guest]

Free Vitters

 

Yeah, I think I'd rather give Vitters the opportunity Lake is getting.

[Cubswin11]

Free Vitters

>Olt

[davell]

If Vitters gets 100 ML AB's as a Cub from this point forward, I'll be surprised.

[SouthSideRyan]

Free Vitters

 

Yeah, I think I'd rather give Vitters the opportunity Lake is getting.

 

I'm one of the few that doesn't want Vitters tossed in the dumpster, but this is crazypants

[WrigleyField 22]

Free Vitters

 

Yeah, I think I'd rather give Vitters the opportunity Lake is getting.

 

I'm one of the few that doesn't want Vitters tossed in the dumpster, but this is crazypants

This. They should both be viewed with skepticism but given a chance. That's no endorsement of Vitters though.

 

I'd give them both some more time in AAA with the hope that Vitters can become a corner IF/LF who gives Rizzo the occasional lefty off and Lake as a 4th OF/possible platoon guy who gets a decent amount of value from D. I'm sure only Vitters will get the AAA time he needs though.

[Guest]

Free Vitters

 

Yeah, I think I'd rather give Vitters the opportunity Lake is getting.

 

I'm one of the few that doesn't want Vitters tossed in the dumpster, but this is crazypants

 

How?

 

The peripherals say Lake isn't likely to be any good. Vitters has the far better pedigree as a prospect (and has been more highly regarded) and was better than Lake at pretty much every level other than their call-ups.

[davell]

I'll trust the FO, especially with saber metrics. Their handling of Vitters and Lake shows which of the pair THEY think is more likely to succeed. And my guess is they have all the numbers we do, plus more. I guess it's possible to blame Sveum, but the FO certainly could have said they'd prefer him to be an everyday player in his callup and they didn't.

[Cubswin11]

I'll trust the FO, especially with saber metrics. Their handling of Vitters and Lake shows which of the pair THEY think is more likely to succeed. And my guess is they have all the numbers we do, plus more. I guess it's possible to blame Sveum, but the FO certainly could have said they'd prefer him to be an everyday player in his callup and they didn't.

I would guess it's more of a scouting thing than a hard numbers thing with their decision of seemingly liking Lake more than Vitters. Since Vitters numbers were better at most levels

[KaiserCesar]

The lack of a promotion for Vitters last year was mostly tied to his injuries. I don't think we have enough to say that the FO doesn't view him filling in the role the WF22 laid out. I could see his 2014 looking very similarly to Lake's 2013.

[sneakypower]

How?

 

The peripherals say Lake isn't likely to be any good. Vitters has the far better pedigree as a prospect (and has been more highly regarded) and was better than Lake at pretty much every level other than their call-ups.

i think you're completely misunderstanding the argument; the peripherals suggest his ceiling as a hitter is limited, but what still remains is that Lake is sure to completely trounce Vitters' contributions in every single other facet of the game besides within the batters box (and arguably still a better bet there as well)

[CubsWin]

Between Olt, Vitters, Lake and Arodys Vizcaino, spring training should be fun to watch. If any of them break with the team, it will be a plus.

 

I agree Lake's bat is not as good as it looked last season, and that much of his value at this point comes from the possibility of improved OF defense coupled with a decent, but not good bat. We would be wise to expect lower production this season if he doesn't continue to improve.

 

If Vitters hits like he did in AAA last season (and stays healthy), he could force himself on the roster. Reports on Vizcaino was that he was looking great during instructs. But the biggie is Olt. His defense should be a plus. If he is hitting during ST, wins the starting job and performs decently during the first half, the complexion of the team going forward certainly changes for the better. I can't wait to get my tickets...

[Cubswin11]

Between Olt, Vitters, Lake and Arodys Vizcaino, spring training should be fun to watch. If any of them break with the team, it will be a plus.

I think it's a damn near lock Lake makes the team. As long as he doesn't get hurt I'd be shocked if he's not on the opening day roster and potentially starting (depending on the opposing SP).

[Guest]

How?

 

The peripherals say Lake isn't likely to be any good. Vitters has the far better pedigree as a prospect (and has been more highly regarded) and was better than Lake at pretty much every level other than their call-ups.

i think you're completely misunderstanding the argument; the peripherals suggest his ceiling as a hitter is limited, but what still remains is that Lake is sure to completely trounce Vitters' contributions in every single other facet of the game besides within the batters box (and arguably still a better bet there as well)

 

I think Lake is fairly likely to be inept at the plate and I don't see any amount of defense (which is far from being a certainty with him anyway) or baserunning making up for the gap.

 

Where's the argument for him being a better bet at the plate than Vitters outside of Lake's numbers in his callup (which peripherals point to as being unsustainable)?

[sneakypower]

wOBA projections: Oliver, Steamer

Lake: .310, .314

Vitters: .316, .317

 

it's a virtual toss-up between the two, and given that he's already shown competency at the MLB level, it would be understandable to term him the safer bet

 

i've also shared my skepticism before of awful 3B trying (and failing miserably) to make the transition to corner OF spots

[North]

The error bar on projection systems for players in their low 20s are so high, it's near the point of irrelevancy.

 

Josh Vitters has work to do. Junior Lake has work to do. Both aren't safe.

[Guest]

I'm not convinced you can say the FO likes Lake better - had Vitters hit like Lake did in his first 100 PAs, he would have stayed up.

[Banedon]

http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/01/27/chicago-cubs-is-junior-lake-emerging-as-a-core-player/

 

The 2014 season will probably tell the story, but I think it is safe to say that the Cubs are looking at the 23-year-old Lake as a core player for the future of the team.

[Guest]

Who the hell is Daniel Schmelzer?

[jersey cubs fan]

Schmelzer?

 

 

I don't even know her.