The Junior Lake thread

[davell]

Sneaky, great point. Honestly hadn't looked very deep into that.(obviously) It's cool we have guys with versatility, because even with some guys certain to not pan out, for 7 positions, we've got Castro, Rizzo, Junior, Olt, Javy, Alcantara, Villanueva, Bryant, Soler, Vogelbach, Almora, and Candelario as legit options as future starters.

[Clem Fandango]

Sneaky, great point. Honestly hadn't looked very deep into that.(obviously) It's cool we have guys with versatility, because even with some guys certain to not pan out, for 7 positions, we've got Castro, Rizzo, Junior, Olt, Javy, Alcantara, Villanueva, Bryant, Soler, Vogelbach, Almora, and Candelario as legit options as future starters.

 

And that makes me happier than a pig in [expletive]. Castro and Soto are the only ones I can remember in the last 10 years of having 2 or more years of legitimate value (3 WAR or more) that came up through the system. Just about every single person you named in that list has the potential to do just that and it's obliterating me with excitement.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

:( He's up to 26.4% K's. Never mind, unless he can improve that or play plus defense in CF.

[neely crenshaw]

:( He's up to 26.4% K's. Never mind, unless he can improve that or play plus defense in CF.

 

Yeah because we don't have any other "generational" players that struck out like 33% of the time in their first taste of the big leagues. At least he's not hitting .141.

he just started playing outfield, missed a lot of the early season with injury and has done very well in his debut. He can only get better with more work on the defense.

Right now we wish Rizzo had his offensive stats. He has better stats than Rizzo, Valbeuena even Schierholtz. Basically every regular on the team(although on a smaller sample size) Only Scheirholtz has a better slugging percentage among starters

As for war, Rizzo is 2.2, Scheirholtz is 1.7, Lake is 1.1 and Valbuena is 0.4.

I am not saying sign him up for the next long term contract, but he should be one of the spots we can at least have hope for in the future.

It's certainly better than watching jackson and vitters last year and seeing how far they were away from helping.

[Sammy Sofa]

There's that weird obsession with Valbuena again.

[Lefty]

Is Lake playing somewhere this winter? I must admit my optimism about him increased with the statistical comparison with Starlin Marte.

[Guest]

Is Lake playing somewhere this winter? I must admit my optimism about him increased with the statistical comparison with Starlin Marte.

 

Licey in the Domincan Winter League. They start today.

[Jax Teller]

12ABs so far, 3 singles, 3Ks, 1SB

 

Last game was the 4th where he went 0-4, K

[North]

Is Lake playing somewhere this winter? I must admit my optimism about him increased with the statistical comparison with Starlin Marte.

 

The only thing that Marte and Lake have in common is their heritage.

 

Lake isn't good at hitting baseballs.

 

He's in the bottom echelon of contact %, his swinging strike percentage is double league average, and posses the unique- yet frustrating- ability of not working counts (65% first pitch strike with pitches 41% in the zone). On top of all of this- he does not hit for power.

 

I'd be happy with an outcome of a 4th OFer with adequate defense. I expect nothing, not even remotely close to league average production.

[North]

:( He's up to 26.4% K's. Never mind, unless he can improve that or play plus defense in CF.

 

Yeah because we don't have any other "generational" players that struck out like 33% of the time in their first taste of the big leagues. At least he's not hitting .141.

he just started playing outfield, missed a lot of the early season with injury and has done very well in his debut. He can only get better with more work on the defense.

Right now we wish Rizzo had his offensive stats. He has better stats than Rizzo, Valbeuena even Schierholtz. Basically every regular on the team(although on a smaller sample size) Only Scheirholtz has a better slugging percentage among starters

As for war, Rizzo is 2.2, Scheirholtz is 1.7, Lake is 1.1 and Valbuena is 0.4.

I am not saying sign him up for the next long term contract, but he should be one of the spots we can at least have hope for in the future.

It's certainly better than watching jackson and vitters last year and seeing how far they were away from helping.

 

I'd be scared shitless if Rizzo and Lake shared similar peripherals.

[Cubswin11]

Junior Lake is done playing in the Dominican Republic winter league, and those who saw him raved about his outfield play.

[Guest]

Junior Lake is done playing in the Dominican Republic winter league, and those who saw him raved about his outfield play.

 

Any word about his hitting stats?

 

Then again, I'm sure we would've heard something on here or somewhere if he were tearing it up.

[davell]

Junior Lake is done playing in the Dominican Republic winter league, and those who saw him raved about his outfield play.

Pretty sure he led the league in hitting too.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Junior Lake is done playing in the Dominican Republic winter league, and those who saw him raved about his outfield play.

 

Any word about his hitting stats?

 

Then again, I'm sure we would've heard something on here or somewhere if he were tearing it up.

 

He tore it up.

 

ETA: 347/386/457, leading the league in hitting. But with a 25% K rate.

[davell]

I'll admit to looking forward to seeing Junior get a full season's worth of ML AB's. I'm honestly thinking we'll see him put up a 3 WAR+ season, even with a high K rate.

[sneakypower]

it's one of, like, three things i'm looking forward to this season

[davell]

it's one of, like, three things i'm looking forward to this season

 

That's it?

 

In no order for me.....

 

Lake, Olt, Rondon, Vizcaino, Arrieta, Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, Sweeney with hopes of seeing Hendricks, Javy, KB, and Alcantara in the majors at some point.

[Guest]

The biggest thing I'm looking forward to besides Castro's rebound and Rizzo's continued development is the Javy callup after he tears up the PCL to an outrageous degree for 2-3 months. It better happen.

[davell]

Castillo gives us a 4 WAR season, highest on the team.

[SouthSideRyan]

it's one of, like, three things i'm looking forward to this season

 

That's it?

 

In no order for me.....

 

Lake, Olt, Rondon, Vizcaino, Arrieta, Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, Sweeney with hopes of seeing Hendricks, Javy, KB, and Alcantara in the majors at some point.

 

Sweeney?

[davell]

it's one of, like, three things i'm looking forward to this season

 

That's it?

 

In no order for me.....

 

Lake, Olt, Rondon, Vizcaino, Arrieta, Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, Sweeney with hopes of seeing Hendricks, Javy, KB, and Alcantara in the majors at some point.

 

Sweeney?

 

In a Schierholtz kind of way from last year. I could see him giving us league average production. At his salary, it'd be a nice bargain anyway.

[Guest]

I wonder what North thinks now?

[Guest]

I wonder what North thinks now?

 

Probably the same thing?

[Guest]

I wonder what North thinks now?

 

From PSD, what he thinks now...posted today

 

Lake doesn't make contact well. He doesn't hit the ball well. He doesn't take pitches, work counts, and get enough quality pitches to hit. These are all characteristics many offensive players have. Most players have trade-offs for these characteristics. For example, Castro makes exceptional contact, but at the cost of seeing more hittable pitches (pre-2013 Castro, *sigh*). Or, Stanton hits the ball extremely far, at the expense of limiting his contact and a higher probability for a high batting average.

 

Lake doesn't trade off a characteristic for a different characteristic. Instead, he's bad at all of them. Lake will need a massive increase in power to offset his potential for a low batting average and on base percentage. A massive jump only subjective, borderline irrational assumptions can "justify."

 

Let's give him the .ISO jump though just to see what it would look like.So, Lake with more power (These are generous):

 

.250 BA / 5% BB / 25 HRs / 25 Doubles / 5 Triples / 4 HBPs / 6 ROEs all in 600 PAs.

wOBA = .311; wRC+ = 97

 

These are calculated with a desired league wOBA of .315. The league wOBA this year was .314. I don't feel like going through the trouble of changing this for a marginal difference.

 

As you can see, the oh-so generous power spike really doesn't even make him league average. It's disappointing, really. But, it's the exact nature of the Junior Lake phenomena. He isn't good at baseball, guys.

[Clem Fandango]

Who is North? He an insider, too?