The Junior Lake thread

[Clem Fandango]

N&G is right. I was being sarcastic. You are making great points and I already respect your opinions. Saw some of your stuff over on PSD (I'm more of a lurker), I hope you continue posting. Sorry for the confusion.

[Guest]

Bigger acquisition, Wesley Wright or North?

[davell]

Bigger acquisition, Wesley Wright or North?

 

Wright. North just pissed all over any hope for Junior. :( We need some semblance of positivity. Give us reasons for optimism with Starlin though and North wins in a landslide.

[Guest]

Bigger acquisition, Wesley Wright or North?

 

Wright. North just pissed all over any hope for Junior. :( We need some semblance of positivity. Give us reasons for optimism with Starlin though and North wins in a landslide.

 

Well he did Rizzo already so that's good.

[davell]

Bigger acquisition, Wesley Wright or North?

 

Wright. North just pissed all over any hope for Junior. :( We need some semblance of positivity. Give us reasons for optimism with Starlin though and North wins in a landslide.

 

Well he did Rizzo already so that's good.

 

Damn, missed that. OK, North over Wright.

[Guest]

Bigger acquisition, Wesley Wright or North?

 

Wright. North just pissed all over any hope for Junior. :( We need some semblance of positivity. Give us reasons for optimism with Starlin though and North wins in a landslide.

 

Well he did Rizzo already so that's good.

 

Damn, missed that. OK, North over Wright.

 

I think you might've seen it the first time around, but...

 

viewtopic.php?p=2998900#p2998900

[davell]

Bigger acquisition, Wesley Wright or North?

 

Wright. North just pissed all over any hope for Junior. :( We need some semblance of positivity. Give us reasons for optimism with Starlin though and North wins in a landslide.

 

Well he did Rizzo already so that's good.

 

Damn, missed that. OK, North over Wright.

 

I think you might've seen it the first time around, but...

 

http://northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2998900#p2998900

Ah, yeah that was a while ago. At any rate, North, welcome, glad you're here now, as well as there.

[Guest]

There you go with that jackass attitude again, being all politely smug with your statistical analysis and your facts. You got some nerve, buddy.

 

Not sure if you're serious.

 

Well, I want to like this guy, but Jesus Christ; NCCF's sarcasm detector caught that one

[North]

There you go with that jackass attitude again, being all politely smug with your statistical analysis and your facts. You got some nerve, buddy.

 

Not sure if you're serious.

 

Well, I want to like this guy, but Jesus Christ; NCCF's sarcasm detector caught that one

 

You got some nerve, buddy...

[Rob]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

 

The difference between Lake and Starling Marte this year is basically 20 feet of batted ball distance and a contact advantage in Marte's favor. Of course, Lake is two years younger and despite scouts not caring for the swing their reports have been unanimous in his power potential, so the a 20 foot current gap is not an insurmountable number.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't love Lake as a difference maker (or Marte for that matter). But he's got plenty going for him -- some of the best raw tools in the game, age relative to league, etc... If he can take a step forward with his contact he can be great. Failing at that, if he can just string together a couple lucky BABIP years we can trade him to Kevin Towers for half his farm system.

[imb]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

 

 

Well, I'm sold. All optimism I had about Junior Lake is now gone. You monster jack ass.

[North]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

 

The difference between Lake and Starling Marte this year is basically 20 feet of batted ball distance and a contact advantage in Marte's favor. Of course, Lake is two years younger and despite scouts not caring for the swing their reports have been unanimous in his power potential, so the a 20 foot current gap is not an insurmountable number.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't love Lake as a difference maker (or Marte for that matter). But he's got plenty going for him -- some of the best raw tools in the game, age relative to league, etc... If he can take a step forward with his contact he can be great. Failing at that, if he can just string together a couple lucky BABIP years we can trade him to Kevin Towers for half his farm system.

 

20 feet is a HUGE number. I can't stress how big of a difference 20 feet is.

 

Prince Fielder's distance dropped from 311 to 291 in the last 4 years and saw his HR total almost drop down by 20.

 

Marte and Lake don't have much in common, other than poor plate discipline. The 9% contact difference is huge too. They aren't marginal differences. Hopefully we catch KT on one of his panic attack days.

[Sammy Sofa]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

 

The difference between Lake and Starling Marte this year is basically 20 feet of batted ball distance and a contact advantage in Marte's favor. Of course, Lake is two years younger and despite scouts not caring for the swing their reports have been unanimous in his power potential, so the a 20 foot current gap is not an insurmountable number.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't love Lake as a difference maker (or Marte for that matter). But he's got plenty going for him -- some of the best raw tools in the game, age relative to league, etc... If he can take a step forward with his contact he can be great. Failing at that, if he can just string together a couple lucky BABIP years we can trade him to Kevin Towers for half his farm system.

 

20 feet is a HUGE number. I can't stress how big of a difference 20 feet is.

 

Prince Fielder's distance dropped from 311 to 291 in the last 4 years and saw his HR total almost drop down by 20.

 

Huh, I never thought to look at trends in batted ball distance, just always at trends in the power stats. Thanks.

[Tracer Bullet]

welp, now i'm disappointed theo didn't trade lake at the meetings for a late checkout

[Guest]

 

Huh, I never thought to look at trends in batted ball distance, just always at trends in the power stats. Thanks.

 

He used it in the encouraging post about Rizzo too.

[Sammy Sofa]

Link me to this post; I want to feel goooooooooood, baby.

[Guest]

Link me to this post; I want to feel goooooooooood, baby.

viewtopic.php?p=2998900#p2998900

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh yeah, that's the stuff.

 

http://media.tumblr.com/408ffb60319bbc5009735900170eb860/tumblr_inline_mi2txv0XYh1qz4rgp.gif

[North]

I like to use batted ball distance to contextualize .ISO. XBH's take a while to stabilize because of all the variables that go into doubles and triples.

 

If I see a jump in .ISO , I'll quickly go to batted ball distance to see if it's a result of just good ball placement, luckiness, etc. Like, Coco Crisp last year had an insane jump in .ISO for the first month or two of the season. I forgot what it was, but I feel like it was 100 points higher than his norm. Granted, he actually did hit more homers overall this year. But, his distance for those first 2 months didn't really change. Funny enough, FanGraphs put together all these gifs of his XBHs and they were popups down the line, slow grounders, etc.

 

Really it's not too complicated looking at some trends in players. All you guys can do it too. Just got to find the resources. I use baseballheatmaps.com religiously. Jeff Sullivan basically uses it like water. I'll also use Brooksbaseball for spray charts and zone profiles. Texasleaguers.com uses spray charts and the actual stadium graphic the players play in, which is cool.

[treebird]

I like to use batted ball distance to contextualize .ISO. XBH's take a while to stabilize because of all the variables that go into doubles and triples.

 

If I see a jump in .ISO , I'll quickly go to batted ball distance to see if it's a result of just good ball placement, luckiness, etc. Like, Coco Crisp last year had an insane jump in .ISO for the first month or two of the season. I forgot what it was, but I feel like it was 100 points higher than his norm. Granted, he actually did hit more homers overall this year. But, his distance for those first 2 months didn't really change. Funny enough, FanGraphs put together all these gifs of his XBHs and they were popups down the line, slow grounders, etc.

 

Really it's not too complicated looking at some trends in players. All you guys can do it too. Just got to find the resources. I use baseballheatmaps.com religiously. Jeff Sullivan basically uses it like water. I'll also use Brooksbaseball for spray charts and zone profiles. Texasleaguers.com uses spray charts and the actual stadium graphic the players play in, which is cool.

 

if you were ever so inclinced, a brief primer on this sort of stuff would probably be hugely appreciated by many on this board.

[Sammy Sofa]

I like to use batted ball distance to contextualize .ISO. XBH's take a while to stabilize because of all the variables that go into doubles and triples.

 

If I see a jump in .ISO , I'll quickly go to batted ball distance to see if it's a result of just good ball placement, luckiness, etc. Like, Coco Crisp last year had an insane jump in .ISO for the first month or two of the season. I forgot what it was, but I feel like it was 100 points higher than his norm. Granted, he actually did hit more homers overall this year. But, his distance for those first 2 months didn't really change. Funny enough, FanGraphs put together all these gifs of his XBHs and they were popups down the line, slow grounders, etc.

 

Really it's not too complicated looking at some trends in players. All you guys can do it too. Just got to find the resources. I use baseballheatmaps.com religiously. Jeff Sullivan basically uses it like water. I'll also use Brooksbaseball for spray charts and zone profiles. Texasleaguers.com uses spray charts and the actual stadium graphic the players play in, which is cool.

 

if you were ever so inclinced, a brief primer on this sort of stuff would probably be hugely appreciated by many on this board.

 

Yes, please.

[Guest]

I like to use batted ball distance to contextualize .ISO. XBH's take a while to stabilize because of all the variables that go into doubles and triples.

 

If I see a jump in .ISO , I'll quickly go to batted ball distance to see if it's a result of just good ball placement, luckiness, etc. Like, Coco Crisp last year had an insane jump in .ISO for the first month or two of the season. I forgot what it was, but I feel like it was 100 points higher than his norm. Granted, he actually did hit more homers overall this year. But, his distance for those first 2 months didn't really change. Funny enough, FanGraphs put together all these gifs of his XBHs and they were popups down the line, slow grounders, etc.

 

Really it's not too complicated looking at some trends in players. All you guys can do it too. Just got to find the resources. I use baseballheatmaps.com religiously. Jeff Sullivan basically uses it like water. I'll also use Brooksbaseball for spray charts and zone profiles. Texasleaguers.com uses spray charts and the actual stadium graphic the players play in, which is cool.

 

if you were ever so inclinced, a brief primer on this sort of stuff would probably be hugely appreciated by many on this board.

 

Yes, please.

 

Thirded.

[Rob]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

 

The difference between Lake and Starling Marte this year is basically 20 feet of batted ball distance and a contact advantage in Marte's favor. Of course, Lake is two years younger and despite scouts not caring for the swing their reports have been unanimous in his power potential, so the a 20 foot current gap is not an insurmountable number.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't love Lake as a difference maker (or Marte for that matter). But he's got plenty going for him -- some of the best raw tools in the game, age relative to league, etc... If he can take a step forward with his contact he can be great. Failing at that, if he can just string together a couple lucky BABIP years we can trade him to Kevin Towers for half his farm system.

 

20 feet is a HUGE number. I can't stress how big of a difference 20 feet is.

 

Prince Fielder's distance dropped from 311 to 291 in the last 4 years and saw his HR total almost drop down by 20.

 

Marte and Lake don't have much in common, other than poor plate discipline. The 9% contact difference is huge too. They aren't marginal differences. Hopefully we catch KT on one of his panic attack days.

 

Holy [expletive], I have no idea how I was able to type up something that legible as drunk as I was. And you righteously eviscerated the argument. Bravo. I like you already.

 

I will say I'm a bit hesitant to put too much stock in Lake's batted ball distance at this point, but it certainly does stabilize a lot faster than I would have anticipated. (Relevant Link)

 

The tools really drew me in when he was about 17, but he's 24 now and I guess it's time to start evaluating him as an OF instead of a potential 3B option. With the offensive bar being set where it is, he's probably not much more than a 2 WAR guy in a good year (albeit one that can really look spectacular when things are going well).

 

Congratulations, I think you finally broke me of my man-crush.

[jersey cubs fan]

Whooo hoooo, awesome. One less thing to look forward to..., wait.

[neely crenshaw]

I don't get the negative on Lake. He's 23. He has hit at every level of the minors..pretty much at the same rate=270 to 300 BA with 750 ops. His first year at A and AA were a little lower but he rebounded the next and posted his career norms. He had a nice small sample in his first run in the bigs. Why is it crazy to think he can't progress to his minor league norms? He may not but it's not crazy by any stretch.

He is very athletic, he will certainly get better as an outfielder with experience. As a poster said earlier, we are in a perfect spot to see exactly what he is.

I don't think there is a player on the roster that we shouldn't have serious questions/worries about what we will get from them, so we can do is hope for the best.