North

I wrote that Cubs Insider post and you actually brought up really fair points that I didn't consider. My main counter to your argument though is that when you evaluate the measurement error using SEM - which imo is a better way to measure variability here - and include his entire career's worth of data, the difference between the cutter and slider classification is so hard to NOT bring up. The probability that it was a random occurrence is like less than .000000001%. I agree that the single start PitchFX analysis can be tedious and most of the time it's not worth reading. But I don't think you can ignore this because of the sharp contrast. Oh, I agree that the classification is significant -- as is the release point difference. I just think that it is hard to tell if he actually "changed" anything about the pitch. It is possible that he and Bosio worked on things and found his stuff played better at that angle. But I think he's slowly been drifting more towards "cutter" status. Velocity going up from start of year; movement down. Interestingly, I feel like it was more of just a nasty cutter in 2015. And by the start of this year, it was basically just a slider. Then I think it reverted back to cutter status by June (albeit a much less nasty one). And then last night was a return to near-2015 levels... which combined with release point change is significant. I was able to significantly associate his in-game release point variability with the amount of slider movement he generated in 2016. So essentially the more inconsistent he was with the pitch, the less movement it generated. That was right around the same time he started to cut his slider usage down a ton. So I think he's been fighting with the "feel" for the pitch for a while. I'm not sure that he consciously wanted to change the way the slider moved. I think it's more he wanted to change something mechanically, which resulted in the difference of pitch classification. Your point of the sinker being different too is a really good one, which is why I think it's more of a total mechanical tweak. The "cutter" is basically the same slider by velo and movement standards, it was just being thrown from a completely different tunnel.

For sure. But, I think it maybe (probably?) could have been for the past month +. He simply hasn't been getting the same movement on it as he used to, so it falls more on the cutter side. Since it's a hybrid, it's hard to classify. But it can lean in either direction, simply by adding more speed or taking some off to get more break. I initially thought that would be why it's classified as a cutter too, but that's not true. The movement he generated with the cutter crosses over to the movement range he generates with the slider. The trajectory at which he threw the pitch + the movement he generated was why it was classified as a cutter. It wasn't just the movement.

I wrote that Cubs Insider post and you actually brought up really fair points that I didn't consider. My main counter to your argument though is that when you evaluate the measurement error using SEM - which imo is a better way to measure variability here - and include his entire career's worth of data, the difference between the cutter and slider classification is so hard to NOT bring up. The probability that it was a random occurrence is like less than .000000001%. I agree that the single start PitchFX analysis can be tedious and most of the time it's not worth reading. But I don't think you can ignore this because of the sharp contrast.

The Javy projections are awesome, and I don't think they are that far fetched, but I'm not sure he can get 500 PAs. Even if Javy strikes out 30% of the time, he could still be a 100 wRC+ hitter if he hits 22 homers and walks at like a 6% rate. That's encouraging to me. His defense, at least at 3B, looks damn good as well.

I basically view Jon Lester as the Millennium Falcon: durable and affective throughout the years. One reason I think this is that he is 230+ pounds, but the main reason is that lefties in general don't suffer as much from velocity dips as their right-handed compadres. Arrieta's across-the-body mechanics scare me; I won't deny it. Factor in the high slider/cutter usage, and I can't not admit it's in the back of my head that he might face the consequences. Then again, he's a physical freak, one that does pilate exercises that look straight out of 50 shades of grey.

I basically view Jon Lester as the Millenium Falcon: durable and affective throughout the years. One reason I think this is that he is 230+ pounds, but the main reason is that lefties in general don't suffer as much from velocity dips as their right-handed compadres. Arrieta's across-the-body mechanics scare me; I won't deny it. Factor in the high slider/cutter usage, and I can't not admit it's in the back of my head that he might face the consequences. Then again, he's a physical freak, one that does pilate exercises that look straight out of 50 shades of grey.

I'm mixed with Hammel. His slider was broken that second half. Literally, it just stopped working. It moved almost 50% less. His release point was also all over the place. Theo, at the end of the season, made it sound like his calf injury was partially to blame. If that truly was the case, then I'm not too concerned. But if the injury wasn't a big deal, then I'm concerned.

Part of me really wants Austin Jackson in LF for this game. I wouldn't even be upset if LaStella is at 3B, with Bryant in LF. But I think you go with the lineup that got you here, for the most part. Coghlan in LF/RF with Schwarber in the other, Castro at 2B, Bryant at 3B. Jackson, LaStella, and Baez will certainly get in the game at some point. I wouldn't mind Jackson in LF for this one. I'd assume that Arrieta doesn't allow many hard hit balls in the gaps, because he's Arrieta, so that's why I'm more inclined to put Bryant out there in LF.

Haha, really, that's a headline? Wittenmyer is the [expletive] that's on the bottom of your shoe. He's annoying and irritating, and you just can't get rid of it. I still can't believe he had the balls to ask Castro whether 1) he knew what ADHD was and 2) whether he thought he had it.

I'm still undecided who I want in the lineup for the game. Right now, I'm leaning towards Schwarber in RF, Baez at 3B, and Bryant in LF. I rather shore up the infield defense than the outfield defense since the majority of batted balls are grounders. Bryant has looked decent there, too. But I'm debating this because Coghlan has also been extremely valuable in LF this year and made major improvements to his defense overall. I don't know.

Oh absolutely not! The major sites are on the up! There's been incredible findings coming from the writers of BP and FG. Chamberlain is destroying (in a good way) all the hitcast data. He made an xISO stat which is really good. Also the new xBABIP stat is slightly better than previous versions. Not only that, but they've done a great job of expanding its presence into larger markets. So now Eno Sarris can actually interview all the big guys and write about his findings on Fox Sports. I'd rather read your stuff. Just post more here man. I plan on it. I just get lazy. I did actually start a blog with some PSD guys. A decent chunk of the content are my pieces. I try to incorporate a little more in-depth analysis to my work. I use a lot of pitch fx data and what not. Hopefully that's not a turn off for people since the sigma is that those who use more stats have blinders on, and I totally understand that. We actually have done a ton of pieces about batting mechanics. For instance, we noticed Castro's mechanical change basically the day he made it, wrote about it and made cool graphics showing the difference, and since then he's had a .470 wOBA I think. He talked to reporters a day or two after and said he made the adjustment. It's been a really fun project. I don't know the protocol for posting stuff like this here since it seems spammy, so if you're interested in our stuff, PM me and I'll send you the link to the site.

Oh absolutely not! The major sites are on the up! There's been incredible findings coming from the writers of BP and FG. Chamberlain is destroying (in a good way) all the hitcast data. He made an xISO stat which is really good. Also the new xBABIP stat is slightly better than previous versions. Not only that, but they've done a great job of expanding its presence into larger markets. So now Eno Sarris can actually interview all the big guys and write about his findings on Fox Sports.

Ugh, it's just a disappointing fall for Castro. He has those intrinsic qualities that should make him a decent player. If he just stops reaching out there with his ass... Tyson Ross scares me because of his high slider usage and lack of really a 3rd pitch. We all know of Cashner. I like James Shields, but damn, should've signed him in the off-season instead of dealing Castro now. Oh well.

I'm surprised. It's not to say it's a bad move, because I don't think it is. Schwarber has been the most discipline prospect on the Cubs since the Theo era.

I miss Neil. I wouldn't mind seeing him close out games when healthy.