The Junior Lake thread

[Tracer Bullet]

My big hope is that Lake's performance looks just sustainable enough to convince another team to fall in love with his tools and consider him a trade asset worth acquiring.

 

I cannot imagine that happening in a world where everybody knows the Cubs are acquiring any and all cheap labor they can get their hands on. If somebody was fooled enough into thinking this was sustainable, won't they have serious doubts once the Cubs think about dealing him?

 

Not if we have other players at those positions, esp if we keep Nate and sign another OF in the off season.

[Guest]

My big hope is that Lake's performance looks just sustainable enough to convince another team to fall in love with his tools and consider him a trade asset worth acquiring.

 

I cannot imagine that happening in a world where everybody knows the Cubs are acquiring any and all cheap labor they can get their hands on. If somebody was fooled enough into thinking this was sustainable, won't they have serious doubts once the Cubs think about dealing him?

 

I think most front offices trust themselves enough not to doubt themselves just because a guy became available, but that might depend on the trade. If the Cubs tried to pawn off Lake at every turn for a AA pitcher, then maybe. But if he's the major league component of a larger package for an impact player, I don't think there's much risk there.

[rawaction]

My big hope is that Lake's performance looks just sustainable enough to convince another team to fall in love with his tools and consider him a trade asset worth acquiring.

 

I cannot imagine that happening in a world where everybody knows the Cubs are acquiring any and all cheap labor they can get their hands on. If somebody was fooled enough into thinking this was sustainable, won't they have serious doubts once the Cubs think about dealing him?

First sentence is my thought exactly. But I don't think the Cubs willingness to trade him matters if a team really wants him.

[sneakypower]

The Starling Marte Method for Overcoming Horrific Plate Discipline to be an Actual Worthwhile Baseball Player

 

• 1. have a high BABIP - Lake has an MLB xBABIP of .335* at the moment and he put up a .347 figure for

2011-13 MiLB seasons (and look at those speed scores!)

• 2. play awesome defense - +23.4 UZR/150 in an admittedly miniscule sample (15 G in left), and we know the tools could support it: he might have the best arm amongst LF

• 3. destroy the occasional meatball - 13.3% HR/FB for Lake vs. 12.4% for his hacktastic ideal at the MLB level

• 4. run the bases like a champ - stole 38/44 two years ago, but yeah, this could use some work

 

*should be a skosh higher, doesn't factor bunts for whatever reason

[neely crenshaw]

Obviously it's not quite what he is doing now but the last 2 seasons (AA/AAA) he's been pushing .300 and .800 ops

 

for a team that has NO ONE hitting even .280, and 1 guy above .800 ops it doesn't sound too bad, and very possible that he can make a run at that range very soon, if not now.

and he's 23, can play almost anywhere and seems to play them all well. Don't see what the rush is to get rid of him or give up on him. Heck you guys have given Stewart and Valbuena more leash than Lake, and he's played well.

[Sammy Sofa]

Don't see what the rush is to get rid of him or give up on him. Heck you guys have given Stewart and Valbuena more leash than Lake, and he's played well.

 

Please point out "the rush to get rid of him or give up on him." Potentially trading high isn't just dumping a guy.

 

We know you can't, but go ahead and try anyway.

 

And what's your problem with Valbuena? He's been a decent player. Is this like when you were bizarrely railing on DeJesus last year because of some imagine slight against Barney?

Edited August 13, 2013 by Sammy Sofa

[Guest]

Obviously it's not quite what he is doing now but the last 2 seasons (AA/AAA) he's been pushing .300 and .800 ops

 

for a team that has NO ONE hitting even .280, and 1 guy above .800 ops it doesn't sound too bad, and very possible that he can make a run at that range very soon, if not now.

and he's 23, can play almost anywhere and seems to play them all well. Don't see what the rush is to get rid of him or give up on him. Heck you guys have given Stewart and Valbuena more leash than Lake, and he's played well.

 

 

Valbuena has played well too.

 

And neither of those guys really ever had the perceived value that people are suggesting capitalizing on with Lake (although I'm not sure how much of that there really is).

[neely crenshaw]

True with the value, and I'm not against trading him if there was some return value, but I just don't think it's a situation that we better sell high because he is going to fail. He has had 2 consecutive solid years at AA/AAA and it's at least reasonable that he can get to that .280 and .800 ops.

and Valbuena pre-injury had dropped to .225 and .700 ops(although ob% was still decent)

[sneakypower]

i'm actually starting to think there's a non-zero chance he can become some kind of a reasonable facsimile of Starling Marte if he puts it all together

UPDATE

 

Marte: 4.7% BB, 23.7% K, .161 ISO, .361 BABIP, 11.6% HR/FB, .344 wOBA, +21.7 UZR/150 (LF)

Lake : 4.5% BB, 22.7% K, .161 ISO, .389 BABIP, 12.5% HR/FB, .361 wOBA, +23.4 UZR/150 (LF)

 

plate discipline numbers are similar, except Marte is better at making contact on pitches out of the zone; he just needs to get in front of more pitches (21[!] HBP for Marte)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's undeniable that between AAA and the majors this year, Lake has shown a new level of ability to make contact, and that makes his all-around skill set play much better.

[Guest]

What scouts are saying:

 

Baseball Prospectus[/url]"]Cubs OF Junior Lake: "He is starting to figure it out. He has always had the physical tools but never really looked like a natural baseball player. To see him slow the game down makes him a viable player. Of all the defensive questions I had in the past, his athleticism is starting to answer them at multiple positions. He has the physical attributes to impact major-league games… and it is starting to show up more regularly than expected."

[chopsx9]

It occured to me last night seeing the highlights of Lakes HR that that its not entirerly inconceivable (...these players are at least all in the Cubs organization) that in a few years the Cubs starting 8 could all (originally) be SS or 3B. Maybe Christian Villanueva can convert to catcher! Maybe too RHed though!

 

1B Vitters

2B Castro

SS Baez

3B Olt

LF Lake

CF Alcantara

RF Bryant

[Ding Dong Johnson]

That's pretty damn inconceivable.

[Guest]

ROFL Vitters

[Castros trade value]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jjpqCfjHWYk/T8djanOc6kI/AAAAAAAABTo/BsVXawOP2g4/s1600/klaw.jpg

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

http://i.imgur.com/xFFWE56.gif

[davell]

I just want Junior to keep this up to get his trade value up.

[neely crenshaw]

At top trade value what would you hope to get in return?

A proven major leaguer? not likely unless there is a major cash dump

Low minor prospect that might never even reach the level that Lake is at right now?

the only possibly scenario is someone trading a similar prospect at a different position(pitching?) That's they only move that might make sense, and even then it's a crap shoot that they work out. Not to mention the FO has shown the ability to grab arms giving up far less than Lake. I personally think it would be a waste to trade him for another big arm that has to be developed. We need to find some bats and position players

 

No one is giving us a top level prospect for a prospect themselves. Even with 1/2 a season of serious success, it's highly unlikely anyone gives up any of their top level prospects for him. So to deal him for what we need(position players) would quite possibly move us backwards.

[Guest]

Sometimes teams make trades that are larger than one player for one player.

[davell]

Sometimes teams make trades that are larger than one player for one player.

I call BS.

[sneakypower]

why are you confident he can't be good

[davell]

If this was directed to me, I have no clue what to think of Junior going forward. Obviously, his BABIP will normalize. The lower walk rate is forgiveable to me, since he's been pretty hot for the majority of his time in the bigs so far. The fact his K rate hasn't jumped is super encouraging and very surprising to me, at the same time. When I say I want to deal him, it's if he's a second piece in a Stanton deal or something else of that impact. I'm actually to the point where I'm OK penciling him into our Opening Day lineup next year, if he's not a key piece in a major trade.

[neely crenshaw]

Sometimes teams make trades that are larger than one player for one player.

 

really...that's legal?

 

It doesn't change the point. He could have value as part of a group of players that go in for a bigger name. But exactly how much more value will he add by hitting at this rate as opposed to dropping off a bit?

To me he has more value in turning out to be a .280 hitter, with close to an .800 ops because exactly how many prospects would we need to bundle to get a guy that will post those numbers

[sneakypower]

If this was directed to me, I have no clue what to think of Junior going forward. Obviously, his BABIP will normalize. The lower walk rate is forgiveable to me, since he's been pretty hot for the majority of his time in the bigs so far. The fact his K rate hasn't jumped is super encouraging and very surprising to me, at the same time. When I say I want to deal him, it's if he's a second piece in a Stanton deal or something else of that impact. I'm actually to the point where I'm OK penciling him into our Opening Day lineup next year, if he's not a key piece in a major trade.

normalize to what though?

 

he's top-10 in LD% (min 200 PA), he's 7/11 on bunt attempts and gets a TON of IF hits, turning outs into hits with his speed:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=30405695

"nothing's routine when Junior Lake is running"

 

and then when fielders rush plays, he gets on via error* (7 in 209 PA...league-leader Norichika Aoki has 13 ROE in 595 PA)...

 

*slightly tangential, but it irritates me that players aren't credited for positive value in OBP (Lake would be at .388) or even WAR, for reaching on error, which has an even higher linear weights run value (.546) than a single - it appears i'm not alone, Posnanski also seems to be bothered by this

[Guest]

If this was directed to me, I have no clue what to think of Junior going forward. Obviously, his BABIP will normalize. The lower walk rate is forgiveable to me, since he's been pretty hot for the majority of his time in the bigs so far. The fact his K rate hasn't jumped is super encouraging and very surprising to me, at the same time. When I say I want to deal him, it's if he's a second piece in a Stanton deal or something else of that impact. I'm actually to the point where I'm OK penciling him into our Opening Day lineup next year, if he's not a key piece in a major trade.

normalize to what though?

 

he's top-10 in LD% (min 200 PA), he's 7/11 on bunt attempts and gets a TON of IF hits, turning outs into hits with his speed:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=30405695

"nothing's routine when Junior Lake is running"

 

and then when fielders rush plays, he gets on via error* (7 in 209 PA...league-leader Norichika Aoki has 13 ROE in 595 PA)...

 

*slightly tangential, but it irritates me that players aren't credited for positive value in OBP (Lake would be at .388) or even WAR, for reaching on error, which has an even higher linear weights run value (.546) than a single - it appears i'm not alone, Posnanski also seems to be bothered by this

Great analysis. I like Lake a lot.