The Junior Lake thread

[Guest]

Who is North? He an insider, too?

Just a jack ass.

[d_money]

I'm looking forward to seeing if Arieta can have consistent control and the development of Lake. Strop should be fun to watch too.

[NOLA]

It's all about Castro and Rizzo this year for me. If they fail to progress, it means our "core" isn't even here yet. That is depressing to think about.

[Guest]

Who is North? He an insider, too?

 

No...just a good poster from PSD who happened to give his thoughts on Lake over there the same day NY asked here.

 

And NY thinks he's a jack ass because he doesn't have a high opinion of Lake.

[Guest]

Who is North? He an insider, too?

 

No...just a good poster from PSD who happened to give his thoughts on Lake over there the same day NY asked here.

 

And NY thinks he's a jack ass because he doesn't have a high opinion of Lake.

Lake was 23 last season. According to people who know a lot more than I do he has tremendous ability. His career is just getting started. He more than held his own during his brief time with the Cubs, even with his bad approach. I like sneakypower's assessment a couple of pages back. Lake may turn out to be terrible or he may not, but definitive statements at this point in time are jack ass comments. I don't give a [expletive] what type of poster he is.

[Guest]

Who is North? He an insider, too?

 

No...just a good poster from PSD who happened to give his thoughts on Lake over there the same day NY asked here.

 

And NY thinks he's a jack ass because he doesn't have a high opinion of Lake.

Lake was 23 last season. According to people who know a lot more than I do he has tremendous ability. His career is just getting started. He more than held his own during his brief time with the Cubs, even with his bad approach. I like sneakypower's assessment a couple of pages back. Lake may turn out to be terrible or he may not, but definitive statements at this point in time are jack ass comments. I don't give a [expletive] what type of poster he is.

 

You like the glowing report from the guy who loves Lake and not the negative one from the guy who doesn't hold a high opinion of him. Shocking.

 

Did you think he was a jack ass when I posted his stuff on Rizzo?

 

viewtopic.php?p=2998900#p2998900

 

 

It's already weird that I'm defending some random internet poster this much but anyway I tried to get him to come over here a while back because having more actual compelling content like that over here more often would be awesome and he mentioned that when he had been here before he wasn't crazy about the vibe but would give it a shot. So I just thought it was really cool that you called him a jack ass because he did nothing more than be negative on a controversial "prospect" and defend his position with an actual argument of substance.

[North]

Jackass reporting in.

 

PSD is good stuff. David, Kyle, Gato, etc. have fun over there. Maybe we can have some good discussions here too.

 

But, just like the rest of you, I hope Lake becomes good. But, for the reasons David said, it seems to just be an irrational optimism (which is fine, we are all fans and want something to cheer about).

 

How come Junior Lake is good? Or, rather, what have we seen to think Junior Lake will be good?

[jumbo]

I've never taken the time to split up his numbers, but from memory I thought that Lake started out ridiculously hot (Puig hot you might say), then looked like a 23 year old rookie. His total numbers may look good at the end of the year, but it seemed like he had one awesome month in a partial season.

[Guest]

Lake's first 50 PA were about a .940 OPS and his final ~200 he was at a .715 OPS, so he definitely started hot. .715 from a rookie CF is hardly terrible though, especially when we're somewhat arbitrarily pulling out a hot streak that makes up ~20% of the total. I wouldn't expect him to be a 3 win player next year, and I'm still relatively pessimistic about him on the whole, but his MLB performance can't be ignored. I'd expect him to hover around league average given a starter's workload.

[d_money]

I've never taken the time to split up his numbers, but from memory I thought that Lake started out ridiculously hot (Puig hot you might say), then looked like a 23 year old rookie. His total numbers may look good at the end of the year, but it seemed like he had one awesome month in a partial season.

He may not really be 23

[Tracer Bullet]

Jackass reporting in.

 

PSD is good stuff. David, Kyle, Gato, etc. have fun over there. Maybe we can have some good discussions here too.

 

But, just like the rest of you, I hope Lake becomes good. But, for the reasons David said, it seems to just be an irrational optimism (which is fine, we are all fans and want something to cheer about).

 

How come Junior Lake is good? Or, rather, what have we seen to think Junior Lake will be good?

 

welcome.

[jersey cubs fan]

Who is North? He an insider, too?

 

No...just a good poster from PSD who happened to give his thoughts on Lake over there the same day NY asked here.

 

And NY thinks he's a jack ass because he doesn't have a high opinion of Lake.

Lake was 23 last season. According to people who know a lot more than I do he has tremendous ability. His career is just getting started. He more than held his own during his brief time with the Cubs, even with his bad approach. I like sneakypower's assessment a couple of pages back. Lake may turn out to be terrible or he may not, but definitive statements at this point in time are jack ass comments. I don't give a [expletive] what type of poster he is.

http://nbcsports700level.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/6a00d83451af4b69e20133f30771b7970b-800wi.png

[Guest]

Seriously...I think of that guy every time I hear someone use that term.

[Rob]

Honestly, there aren't many players in baseball right now with a wider potential range of outcomes for 2014. If you jumped out of a time machine and told me he was the worst player in the majors I wouldn't be surprised. I also wouldn't be surprised if he was a 5 WAR player.

 

The good news is we are in an ideal position to find out if there's anything there.

[jersey cubs fan]

Honestly, there aren't many players in baseball right now with a wider potential range of outcomes for 2014. If you jumped out of a time machine and told me he was the worst player in the majors I wouldn't be surprised. I also wouldn't be surprised if he was a 5 WAR player.

 

The good news is we are in an ideal position to find out if there's anything there.

 

I hold out hope he can be useful but I would be blown away shocked if Lake was a 5 WAR player.

[KingCubsFan]

Honestly, there aren't many players in baseball right now with a wider potential range of outcomes for 2014. If you jumped out of a time machine and told me he was the worst player in the majors I wouldn't be surprised. I also wouldn't be surprised if he was a 5 WAR player.

 

The good news is we are in an ideal position to find out if there's anything there.

 

I hold out hope he can be useful but I would be blown away shocked if Lake was a 5 WAR player.

Ian Desmond was a 5 WAR player last year. Starling Marte and Gerardo Parra were almost 5 WAR players. If he inflates his defensive value by playing CF and has a good baserunning season, I suppose it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

[North]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

[Clem Fandango]

There you go with that jackass attitude again, being all politely smug with your statistical analysis and your facts. You got some nerve, buddy.

[Sammy Sofa]

I like this guy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

 

 

Well, I'm sold. All optimism I had about Junior Lake is now gone. You monster.

[Guest]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

 

 

Well, I'm sold. All optimism I had about Junior Lake is now gone. You monster.

 

No worries. Dayton Moore likes him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No worries. Dayton Moore likes him.

 

Unfortunately, being able to exploit that would require us to actually pull the trigger on a trade rather the sit around slapping ourselves on the back for how much leverage we gain by waiting.

[Guest]

The thing is though, he didn't have a good year with the Cubs.

 

He has a swinging strike percentage of 16.3%. It qualifies for .8% behind Tyler Flowers as the worst in MLB with 250+ PAs. It's okay to swing and miss the baseball often if there are other attributes that go along with the trait (e.g., swing % and hitting the ball far), however. He exhibited a 65% contact rate too. Again, only Ryan Howard is .7% worse.

 

He also doesn't hit the ball that far either. His batted ball distance on flyballs and homers was 270 feet. The equivalent of this are players like: Jayson Nix, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Crawford, Josh Phegley, David DeJesus, Matt Carpenter, etc. The lists, as you can imagine is quite long because 270 is pretty standard. These guys don't hit many homers.

 

I'm not sure where the optimism is grounded in. He is a big, strong looking guy. But, he doesn't really have good hitting skills. On top of it, just by qualitative assessment, many scouts are turned off by his little hitch-like maneuver when the pitcher is at his release point. It points to the potential volatility he has in his approach.

That's a very roundabout way to say he strikes out too much. He does and it's a definite red flag. But, he also hits line drives at a very high percentage and he's at an age where his peers are in AA. Those two things alone give reason for optimism.

[North]

There you go with that jackass attitude again, being all politely smug with your statistical analysis and your facts. You got some nerve, buddy.

 

Not sure if you're serious. Reading text can leave others open to their own imaginative paralinguistic cues. But, I'm not trying to be smug at all. I know I'm this new guys coming in throwing stuff around. Believe me, I'm not that intelligent when it comes to this stuff compared to a lot of people. I'm not the one actually formulating some of the advanced metrics like many do.

 

He hits line drives at a very high percentage and he's at an age where his peers are in AA. Those two things alone give reason for optimism.

 

Yeah, the thing is though, line drives are an odd little hit type. It's really unexplainable what leads to a line drive. What I mean by this is that while groundballs and flyballs tend to take 80 BBIPs to be "stabilize," line drives take 600 BBIPs.

 

I took the 250 PA qualifying number to see the highest LD%'s this year, and I got some surprising numbers. Leading the way was Nick Punto at 29%, followed by Avila at 28%, and Gregor Blanco at 27.7%. Not too far below we have Skip Schumaker at 27.2%.

[Sammy Sofa]

Logan was being sarcastic; keep doing what you're doing.