The Junior Lake thread

[BleacherBadger]

bleacher report > rant sports

[Guest]

I thought that was a pretty fair write up. I'm not sure if Lake is a core player though. He hasn't yet shown enough to be a lock as a starter. If I had to guess, I'd say if he hits moderately well he'll be a a guy the Cubs hang on to as long as he's cheap or until Solar/Bryant are ready. He is also a good trade candidate.

[d_money]

Schmelzer?

 

 

I don't even know her.

Awesome

[Pushfrog98]

Schmelzer?

 

 

I don't even know her.

This is the reason I want Doug Fister on the team.

[mul21]

I asked this in the game thread yesterday but I'll put it here too:

 

For you swing experts out there: Is it possible that there's something to Mueller getting Lake's hands quieter before the swing that's clicked here at the end of spring that's going to make a long term difference? From everyone who's scouted him, all the raw tools are there and just need some fine tuning.

[RynoRules]

Junior leads team in ISO - .294. Not surprisingly, also striking out quite a bit - 35.1%.

[sneakypower]

Lake is one of the worst hitters in the league for plate coverage; he makes contact with pitches out of the zone only about 1/2 of the time

 

well, everyone knows this is all bad. what this post presupposes is...maybe it isn't

 

intuitively, we understand hitters are going to put better contact on pitches in the zone, and the data bears this out:

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/babip_xy.png

 

it's worth considering that if Lake can't hit pitches out of the zone, he can't make feeble contact to waste an AB (despite his struggles on pitches outside of the zone, he's been perfectly acceptable with the rate he's made contact on pitches in the zone)...one has to wonder if he has the ideal skillset (hard contact in the zone, top-end speed, a relative fly-ball avoidance) to do a really good job of cheating BABIP's orthodoxy

 

the downside here of all this is obvious, though: as pitchers start to give him fewer & fewer pitches in the zone to hit, he'll need to become more willing to take walks to combat that

 

but it's also important to remember he'll provide enough value elsewhere (32.5 uzr/150, lol) and he'll carry an inflated ISO, so his performance in the batter's box needn't be better than "merely adequate" to really provide a lot of value to a team

 

but while others seem to be sure they know exactly what he'll become, i honestly wouldn't be surprised at any future outcome for him falling in the range of Starling Marte, to present-day BJ Upton

Edited April 15, 2014 by sneakypower

[jersey cubs fan]

Lake is one of the worst hitters in the league for plate coverage; he makes contact with pitches out of the zone only 2/5 of the time

 

I am surprised that 2/5 is the among the worst for out of the zone contact.

[KingCubsFan]

Lake is one of the worst hitters in the league for plate coverage; he makes contact with pitches out of the zone only 2/5 of the time

 

I am surprised that 2/5 is the among the worst for out of the zone contact.

The list of the best isn't exactly an impressive list of hitters either: Barney, Pierre, Scutaro, Callaspo, Votto (obvious outlier).

[neely crenshaw]

maybe this is a dumb question but why is it a problem if he doesn't hit pitches that are out of the zone well?

[Clem Fandango]

The way I see it it's bad because he chooses to swing at pitches he can't hit instead of laying off them and working the count. That and it probably means he has poor pitch recognition skills and a bad understanding of the strike zone.

[EhDubya]

maybe this is a dumb question but why is it a problem if he doesn't hit pitches that are out of the zone well?

 

Just because he doesn't hit pitches that are out of the zone well doesn't mean that he won't stop trying to.

[Guest]

That begs the question, how often does he swing at pitches outside of the zone? Edited April 15, 2014 by CubinNY

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What happens when a player who is crushing pitches inside the zone suddenly figures out how to stop swinging at pitches outside the zone?

 

 

http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/sosa12.jpg

 

 

 

Probably not though. He sucks.

 

[sneakypower]

maybe this is a dumb question but why is it a problem if he doesn't hit pitches that are out of the zone well?

makes him susceptible to high K totals

 

The way I see it it's bad because he chooses to swing at pitches he can't hit instead of laying off them and working the count. That and it probably means he has poor pitch recognition skills and a bad understanding of the strike zone.

he swings at 35% of pitches out of the zone (average is about 30-31%), and swings at 71% of strikes (average is around 66%) so the bolded doesn't seem to be a major problem

 

also, the one pitch he's proven himself to be totally helpless against is the curve...he has positive scores against FB, CH, SL, and seems to love to hit cutters

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm at least on board with playing him every day now, especially when the apparent alternative are non-factors like Ryan Kalish or Emilio Bonifacio

[Clem Fandango]

The way I see it it's bad because he chooses to swing at pitches he can't hit instead of laying off them and working the count. That and it probably means he has poor pitch recognition skills and a bad understanding of the strike zone.

he swings at 35% of pitches out of the zone (average is about 30-31%), and swings at 71% of strikes (average is around 66%) so the bolded doesn't seem to be a major problem

 

Fair enough then. I just kind of interpreted it as he'll swing at anything.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

What happens when a player who is crushing pitches inside the zone suddenly figures out how to stop swinging at pitches outside the zone takes a crap load of steroids?

 

 

http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/sosa12.jpg

 

 

 

Probably not though. He sucks.

[Sammy Sofa]

I loathe you.

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, it's crazy when you think about how many guys simply choose to not take a crapload of the bottle that magically makes you a good hitter.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I loathe you.

 

Yeah, I shouldn't have done that. I love Sammy, too.

 

Apologies to everyone on the board.

[Elwood]

I'm at least on board with playing him every day now, especially when the apparent alternative are non-factors like Ryan Kalish or Emilio Bonifacio

 

Huh?

[RynoRules]

Interesting point re Sammy. Probably too simple, but interesting. If Lake can't hit a curve, then lay off it all together and make the pitcher throw it for strikes.

[XZero771679666304]

As much as he struck out, Sosa never really struck out nearly as much as Lake has thus far. Sosa obviously got more selective, though his K rate actually didn't change all that much over the course of his career. He just started approaching pitches on or off the outer half differently (either taking them the other way or not swinging at them). Lake just seems completely befuddled by just about all breaking pitches.

 

It's early, and while there's still some hope for Lake, I'm not sure his pitch recognition issues can be remedied enough to allow him to become a useful regular. I fear what Wainwright did to him on Saturday will turn out to be a microcosm of his career.

 

If he can figure it out, he could be pretty good. And while I'd prefer he figure it out in AAA, I'm not completely opposed to giving him 400+ ABs on the big league club this year.

[sneakypower]

I fear what Wainwright did to him on Saturday will turn out to be a microcosm of his career.

i hope you're right