Rizzo

SABR Gamer · September 27, 2013

Okay, one last try with bullet points:

- No one thinks this year was great or "part of the plan" for Rizzo. Then why the argument when I say he needs to be better?

Where did anyone argue with that? Actually please find one person who said Rizzo doesn't need to get better than he is now. People are just saying you should stfu because you aren't saying anything remotely useful or adding any kind of new information to the discussion.

- If Rizzo OPS's .820 next year he'll be a 4 win player and undoubtedly one of the Top 10 1B in MLBPuts him roughly 12-14th, if no other young guys improve

You don't understand WAR.

- Regardless of what Rizzo does, the Cubs need to add talent to be contenders-that's my point entirely, having an improved Rizzo is not enough

Similar to the first point, show me one person who said Rizzo turning into a 4 WAR player is all the Cubs need to contend.

- If Rizzo is a 4 win player next year the Cubs can be contenders with the right improvements elsewhereyes, but until we see those moves how can we judge if Rizzo is the middle of the order bat

A 4 WAR 1B is going to be a good option for the middle of the order for pretty much any team.

- It's obviously easier for the Cubs to be contenders if Rizzo reaches his potential and is a 5-6 win player next yearExactly my statement, again why is this being argued?

Again, where did anyone say this wasn't true.

Hopefully that covers it. You're bouncing from bad argument(lol Rizzo isn't a generational talent) to bad argument(Rizzo isn't all that great if he OPS's .820) to bad argument(the Cubs can't be contenders if Rizzo doesn't reach his ceiling) to really obvious point(the Cubs need to add players to be contenders).

I don't know how we argue generational(what is generational, and what is his generation) but he sure hasn't been so far, and with the amount of young talent out there, it will be tough.
A number 3 hitting first baseman posting an .820 OPS is good but not great. Leon Durham had a .831 career OPS, he is not considered great. I guess those are bad arguments because I'm right?

Nobody called him generational. I suggested it wasn't impossible earlier in the year when he was on a tear around the time of his extension, that's the closest I'm pretty sure anyone got to saying that. Do you really not realize that? Because it really seems like you don't.

I clearly never said the cubs couldn't be contenders, I, once again, simply said that how quickly and how much he improves directly correlates to how quickly the cubs rebound.

So did everyone else. I'm not sure you know how to comprehend this language.

As for bouncing around perhaps that is from having to defend my stance against posters who would rather talk mis-spelling shin-soo choo instead of the point of the argument.

Lol, not at all. It's all you buddy.

weis21 · September 28, 2013

Seriously, guys, it was just a mis-spelling. BACK OFF

neely crenshaw · September 28, 2013

DHNY Cub fan-

When a large part of your war comes from defense, which is the case and will always be the case with Rizzo, 4.0 does not make you a good candidate for a 3 hitter. Darwin Barney posted a 4.7 last season...not a 3 hitter.

As I said I am not talking about his total value to the team, I am simply talking about his offensive ability and how that fits in our lineup.

Simply talking about a player hitting in the middle of the order, and about Rizzo "maybe"bringing it up to a .820 OPS:

The fact is for every playoff team for the last 3 seasons, none had a #3 guy hitting that low - not 1. So if we want to be a playoff team that simply isn't good enough regardless of how well he plays defense.

I can't quote anyone saying "the cubs are a playoff team if this happens " that's true.

However there are several(including you) who continue to argue that at this proposed offensive performance, he is a middle of the order bat for the cubs.

So either you guys are saying "we would compete with that type of performance" or you are fine with the cubs never competing.

As for a 4 war guy hitting 3rd for pretty much any team. At that proposed level, would he hit 3rd for LA, St.Louis,Cincy,Pittsburgh,Atlanta?

I'll stop because you know the answer.

A better question would be if he did put up an .820, other than us who would he hit 3rd for?

San Diego? Houston? Seattle? maybe the Sox.

He'd be valuable (and he is) but he would not hit 3rd for very many teams even at that output.

davell · September 28, 2013

Oh sweet Moses.

Boris · September 28, 2013

It's the Battle of Evermore.

pccubfan · September 28, 2013

DHNY Cub fan-
When a large part of your war comes from defense, which is the case and will always be the case with Rizzo, 4.0 does not make you a good candidate for a 3 hitter. Darwin Barney posted a 4.7 last season...not a 3 hitter.
As I said I am not talking about his total value to the team, I am simply talking about his offensive ability and how that fits in our lineup.

Simply talking about a player hitting in the middle of the order, and about Rizzo "maybe"bringing it up to a .820 OPS:

The fact is for every playoff team for the last 3 seasons, none had a #3 guy hitting that low - not 1. So if we want to be a playoff team that simply isn't good enough regardless of how well he plays defense.

I can't quote anyone saying "the cubs are a playoff team if this happens " that's true.
However there are several(including you) who continue to argue that at this proposed offensive performance, he is a middle of the order bat for the cubs.
So either you guys are saying "we would compete with that type of performance" or you are fine with the cubs never competing.

As for a 4 war guy hitting 3rd for pretty much any team. At that proposed level, would he hit 3rd for LA, St.Louis,Cincy,Pittsburgh,Atlanta?
I'll stop because you know the answer.
A better question would be if he did put up an .820, other than us who would he hit 3rd for?
San Diego? Houston? Seattle? maybe the Sox.
He'd be valuable (and he is) but he would not hit 3rd for very many teams even at that output.

How is Boston competing with Pedroia's numbers?

It's been made very clear to you by every other poster that the team needs better players in order to compete. Pedroia proves a player batting third with an OPS less than .820 can be competitive if there are good players surrounding that player. Can we just let this arguement end?

SABR Gamer · September 28, 2013

Oh sweet Moses.

Yeah this is hopeless, but I knew that going in, so shame on me.

neely crenshaw · September 28, 2013

DHNY Cub fan-
When a large part of your war comes from defense, which is the case and will always be the case with Rizzo, 4.0 does not make you a good candidate for a 3 hitter. Darwin Barney posted a 4.7 last season...not a 3 hitter.
As I said I am not talking about his total value to the team, I am simply talking about his offensive ability and how that fits in our lineup.

Simply talking about a player hitting in the middle of the order, and about Rizzo "maybe"bringing it up to a .820 OPS:

The fact is for every playoff team for the last 3 seasons, none had a #3 guy hitting that low - not 1. So if we want to be a playoff team that simply isn't good enough regardless of how well he plays defense.

I can't quote anyone saying "the cubs are a playoff team if this happens " that's true.
However there are several(including you) who continue to argue that at this proposed offensive performance, he is a middle of the order bat for the cubs.
So either you guys are saying "we would compete with that type of performance" or you are fine with the cubs never competing.

As for a 4 war guy hitting 3rd for pretty much any team. At that proposed level, would he hit 3rd for LA, St.Louis,Cincy,Pittsburgh,Atlanta?
I'll stop because you know the answer.
A better question would be if he did put up an .820, other than us who would he hit 3rd for?
San Diego? Houston? Seattle? maybe the Sox.
He'd be valuable (and he is) but he would not hit 3rd for very many teams even at that output.

How is Boston competing with Pedroia's numbers?

It's been made very clear to you by every other poster that the team needs better players in order to compete. Pedroia proves a player batting third with an OPS less than .820 can be competitive if there are good players surrounding that player. Can we just let this arguement end?

Probably because Ortiz is sporting a .960 ops behind him, or that Carp/Nava sport an .850, or Victorino at .809, Saltalamacchia at .803.

Also this is not a normal year for Pedroria. He was at .860 in 2010 and 2011 before injury. Even so in that scenario, Ortiz is their main bat, you would compare Rizzo to him.

Certainly you could compete with a guy having a .600 ops hitting 3rd, if you drop a couple .900's at 4 and 5.

Exactly where do you plan on these 4-5 bats coming from, and when do you suppose they'll get here.

I'm talking now, and near future not some fairy tale.

pccubfan · September 28, 2013

Probably because Ortiz is sporting a .960 ops behind him, or that Carp/Nava sport an .850, or Victorino at .809, Saltalamacchia at .803.
Also this is not a normal year for Pedroria. He was at .860 in 2010 and 2011 before injury. Even so in that scenario, Ortiz is their main bat, you would compare Rizzo to him.

Certainly you could compete with a guy having a .600 ops hitting 3rd, if you drop a couple .900's at 4 and 5.
Exactly where do you plan on these 4-5 bats coming from, and when do you suppose they'll get here.
I'm talking now, and near future not some fairy tale.

Yea, those better players Rizzo needs to be surrounded by comes to mind, but why try to understand that when there is no way a team can compete with a guy putting up an .820 OPS and batting third.

neely crenshaw · September 28, 2013

I just have to ask.

Do you seriously thinks that the argument is about whether you can write Rizzo in as "the 3rd hitter" in the line-up on a competitive team?

When I say someone is a middle of the order bat, he is your guy. your main stick, the guy you depend. I do not mean he simply is written down in the middle of your order. He is your Votto, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Ortiz, McCutcheon or Davis.

Of course you can write in Darwin Barney at number 3 if your lineup is good enough around him. That's not the point.

This is so much like the argument where someone said Jackson can't be our #2 and the point was made that he can if 3-4-5 all perform better than him.

treebird · September 28, 2013

i bet if you guys keep arguing with neely he eventually changes his mind

weis21 · September 28, 2013

i bet if you guys keep arguing with neely he eventually changes his mind

Yeah, before I went to bed last night I started to reply to his post but got about 30 seconds into it and said [expletive] it. It would be futile, anyway.

October 17, 2013

I hate to be all "yeah, that" but NORTH over at PSD posted some good analysis of Rizzo that I wanted to pass along here.

On Fangraphs, I argued with one of the authors who claimed Rizzo was making weak contact against lefties, indicated by his pop ups. He does have a .266 xBABIP against lefties, with a .207 BABIP. That is correct.

Here's where the author of that article was wrong. Rizzo wasn't making weak contact. His pop ups didn't affect his xBABIP, and it didn't rationalize a low BABIP at all.

Look at his zone charts for lefties: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=519203&startDate=04/01/2013&endDate=10/17/2013&minmax=ci&var=babip&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=L

The left part of the zone is pitches outside in this graphic. He is a combined 0/28 with pitches on the left side of the plate outside the zone (I'm not focusing on that out of the zone high BABIP because, as you'll see below, he hit mostly line drives in those instances). Here's his pop up % in that part of the plate: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=519203&startDate=04/01/2013&endDate=10/17/2013&minmax=ci&var=pu&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=L

Look at that, basically no pop ups. But, wait! They could be weak fly balls still! Nope. His ISO is a combined .272 on that portion of the plate. So a .000 BABIP with a .272 ISO? What does this mean? Home runs. Rizzo is hitting the ball strong on the outside portion of the plate and is showing a .000 BABIP. This, POTENTIALLY, could explain a .207 BABIP. It's not a matter of weak contact. He has shown the ability to hit the ball far in that area of the zone.

Rizzo does have a .266 xBABIP with a .207 BABIP, and I'd expect some mean approaching in 2014.

Also, his BBIP distance this year was 273. The year before: 273. Those home runs have the potential to increase as well.

If we use his .306 xBABIP this year, that equates to about a .280ish batting average. His HR/FB% in 2012 was 18.1 and 12.6 in 2013. For no reason other than being arbitrary, let's say he can put a HR/FB% in 16. He is hitting more fly balls, which should see a nice spike in homers. His FB% in 2013 with a 16% HR/FB rate equates to 27 homers. His trend in FBs lines up well historically (http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hitteragigall.jpg). As does his increase in walks (http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hitteragigall.jpg).

That being said, regressing these extreme BABIP numbers and HR/FB measures to the mean, putting them into a wOBA calculator, you get a .367 wOBA with a 138 wRC+ when the desired league wOBA is .315.

Add in some positive development (continuing walking more, hitting more fly balls, maybe a bit more BBIP distance), and there is no reason Rizzo can't hit 30 homers and have a wOBA pushing .375ish-.380ish.

Rizzo is pretty damn good guys, more so when you take into account his defensive value.

Edited October 17, 2013 by David

Soul · October 17, 2013

Hope it turns out. I really do. We need something like a bounce-back Rizzo season around here.

ConstableRabbit · October 17, 2013

I hate to be all "yeah, that" but NORTH over at PSD posted some good analysis of Rizzo that I wanted to pass along here.

On Fangraphs, I argued with one of the authors who claimed Rizzo was making weak contact against lefties, indicated by his pop ups. He does have a .266 xBABIP against lefties, with a .207 BABIP. That is correct.

Here's where the author of that article was wrong. Rizzo wasn't making weak contact. His pop ups didn't affect his xBABIP, and it didn't rationalize a low BABIP at all.

Look at his zone charts for lefties: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h...es=-1&b_hand=L

The left part of the zone is pitches outside in this graphic. He is a combined 0/28 with pitches on the left side of the plate outside the zone (I'm not focusing on that out of the zone high BABIP because, as you'll see below, he hit mostly line drives in those instances). Here's his pop up % in that part of the plate: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h...es=-1&b_hand=L

Look at that, basically no pop ups. But, wait! They could be weak fly balls still! Nope. His ISO is a combined .272 on that portion of the plate. So a .000 BABIP with a .272 ISO? What does this mean? Home runs. Rizzo is hitting the ball strong on the outside portion of the plate and is showing a .000 BABIP. This, POTENTIALLY, could explain a .207 BABIP. It's not a matter of weak contact. He has shown the ability to hit the ball far in that area of the zone.

Rizzo does have a .266 xBABIP with a .207 BABIP, and I'd expect some mean approaching in 2014.

Also, his BBIP distance this year was 273. The year before: 273. Those home runs have the potential to increase as well.

Is this mean or median?

Hairyducked Idiot · October 17, 2013

It says "average," so it should be obvious whether it's mean or median.

ConstableRabbit · October 17, 2013

I know which joke you're making, but it doesn't say "average" anywhere and I've never heard of the stat before.

jersey cubs fan · October 17, 2013

I know which joke you're making, but it doesn't say "average" anywhere and I've never heard of the stat before.

So are you trying to make a joke about the missing A in BBIP, which I assume is BABIP, which does include the word average? Or is that just batted balls in play? I've never heard of the distance stat either, how is that measured? Would a liner caught by a 1B be measured at 90 ft with a shallow fly be measured where it's caught?

Edited October 17, 2013 by jersey cubs fan

October 17, 2013

I know which joke you're making, but it doesn't say "average" anywhere and I've never heard of the stat before.

So are you trying to make a joke about the missing A in BBIP, which I assume is BABIP, which does include the word average?

No, I think it's batted balls in play distance.

ConstableRabbit · October 17, 2013

I know which joke you're making, but it doesn't say "average" anywhere and I've never heard of the stat before.

So are you trying to make a joke about the missing A in BBIP, which I assume is BABIP, which does include the word average?

Given that I had never seen the stat BBIP Distance before, I had no reason to assume anything, and I'm not quite sure what "Batting Average of Balls in Play Distance" would mean.

I assumed the stat was "Batted Ball in Play Distance" and was trying to determine whether the 273 was mean distance of a batted balls in play or median distance of batted balls in play.

ConstableRabbit · October 22, 2013

Anyone?

October 22, 2013

Mean.

Gmoney08 · October 27, 2013

Do you seriously thinks that the argument is about whether you can write Rizzo in as "the 3rd hitter" in the line-up on a competitive team?

When I say someone is a middle of the order bat, he is your guy. your main stick, the guy you depend. I do not mean he simply is written down in the middle of your order. He is your Votto, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Ortiz, McCutcheon or Davis.

Well then your arguing over two different things. Your verbiage is wrong, not our fault? If you meant Rizzo cant be your best bat, your "main stick," your Sultan of Swat, your number 1 OPS hitter on a championship team.... then why didnt you say that? Most here would probably agree we will likely need to get a bat or few that are better than Rizzo.

But, when you use a term like middle of the order and whine because people argue effectively he could be a decent middle of the order guy, it is your fault for not using the proper words.

Rizzo can definitely be a decent 4, 5, 6 hitter on a championship team. Hopefully he reaches that potential.

October 27, 2013

I'm feeling pretty safe with my assumption that he's going to improve on his age 23 season going forward.

Sammy Sofa · October 27, 2013

Why are national treasures like da Bum banned but this monster is free to wander the Earth?

Rizzo

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