What's Behind Edward Cabrera's Struggles?

After getting shot out of a cannon to start the 2026 campaign and looking ultra-impressive, Cubs right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera is hitting his first slump as a member of the North Siders. Today, we’ll dive into what’s gone south for him, specifically in the month of May.

Setting The Table
As a reminder, the Cubs acquired Cabrera in a trade for outfield prospect Owen Caissie, the jewel of their farm system who got a cup of coffee in the major leagues last season. That was a high price to pay, but with Justin Steele being set back and Cade Horton going down (among a litany of injuries that have popped up with this starting pitching staff), it looks like addressing the rotation was a pretty smart choice. Now, let’s dive into his struggles, because those very injuries make Cabrera indispensable for the team.

A Rough Month Of May
After a strong first couple of starts in the 2026 season, Cabrera has an earned run average north of 6.00 in the month of May. He allowed a season-high five earned runs a couple of starts ago, and he has now given up at least three earned runs in seven consecutive starts, a streak I’m sure he’d love to break Wednesday night against the Brewers. What’s contributing to this drop-off from the Cabrera who didn’t allow a single earned run over his first pair of starts? Let’s take a look.

Hard Contact, XBA
Quality of contact is a great place to start. We mentioned that the earned runs have spiked in the last few starts. For the culprit, look no further than the home run ball. Cabrera has allowed the long ball five times in his last three combined starts, and he has now given up at least one round-tripper in five consecutive starts. For an opposing hitter to get a home run, two factors need to go right: quality of contact and launch angle.

The hard contact box is certainly checked off. Cabrera is allowing one of the highest average exit velocities of any pitcher in baseball, at 91.6 mph. That’s in the bottom 6 percent of all pitchers. Not far from exit velocity is its cousin, barrel percentage. Cabrera is getting barreled up 12.9% of the time, which puts him in the bottom 8 percent of pitchers. How about the launch angle? Well, Cabrera is allowing an average launch angle of 12.5 degrees. That’s the second-highest mark of his six-year career, and it’s not missing the watermark he set in 2022 by much, which was 12.7°. Consequently, the righty’s ground ball rate is right around league average at 44.2%. Hitters aren’t just teeing off on Cabrera, but they’re getting optimal launch angles in the process.

The Sinker Is Getting Mashed
Another way to slice up a hurler’s struggles is to go pitch-by-pitch. We know Edward Cabrera is known for his changeup. It’s his bread and butter, and so far, so good—for the most part. He has an opposing batting average of .241 with that selection. It’s a bit of a spike from his .203 mark a year ago, but this pitch isn’t the main issue. The sinker is yet again looking like his Achilles heel. A year removed from a campaign wherein Cabrera’s sinker was hit at a clip of .370, he’s allowing a .364 opposing batting average. This is far and away the highest of any of the five options in his arsenal. 

Brighter Skies Ahead?
On the bright side, Cabrera still has five options to choose from. Pitchers who have a more limited list of pitches are sometimes stuck with what they have, but Cabrera has the changeup, curveball, sinker, four-seamer and a slider. The changeup is supposed to be one of the most lethal weapons in the game, and I think he can be one of the more impressive righties out there with it. Now it’s just about keeping the ball down and preventing hard contact.