Cubs acquire Kevin Gregg for Jose Ceda

[TheRaven]

Stop trying to ct like I think Ceda is some great player who we'll regret getting rid of.

 

That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?

 

Edit: Oh, and WHIP wasn't the only stat I was looking at for Gregg. It was just an example I gave because you kept asking for stats like yopu were unable to find them yourself.

 

HE'S NOT THAT GOOD

 

Ah, yes, my mistake. I did not know how to reference a WHIP stat, even though I brought up one. You, sir, are good.

[UK1679666180]

Wuertz and Gregg aren't very similar. Gregg's best pitch is his sinker, he doesn't have near the slider that Wuertz does and Wuertz doesn't have the same FB, change, splitter as Gregg. Even though Gregg has below avg. command/control it is still better than Wuertz.

[imb]

 

He's talking about the difference between wood and gregg for this year

 

which is stupid considering wood's contract will run another 3 years or so past this one

 

Just wait until Hendry signs Gregg longer term, and Wood winds up somewhere for reasonable dollars.

 

Come on IMB, you've seen this movie before.

 

It's still not a comparison at all. What is Gregg's top-end contact? 3-12? 3-15? We're still talking about a saving over well over $20 million dollars, and at least Gregg is a safe bet to still be pitching by the end of that deal.

 

Signing Woody would have been a stupid move. Not that that fact would make a Gregg long-term deal palatable, but the Woody ship had sailed, regardless.

[JeffH]

Someone said something about trading Gregg next year...we can't he'll be a FA.

 

If we're lucky. More likely, Old Punch Drunk will sign him to a ridiculous extension.

[TheRaven]

 

Sample size alert, but...

 

Ceda's MLE for his 2008 relief stats:

FIP=3.68

Average against: 261

BABIP: 346

BB/9: 3.67

K/9: 9.17

 

Gregg's 2008 stats

FIP=3.80

Average against: 208

BABIP: 261

BB/9: 4.85

K/9: 7.60

 

Its not out of the realm of possibility. You act as if I'm saying Larry Suarez could be better than Kevin Gregg next year.

 

The numbers aren't valid for comparison as they were not facing even remotely the same talent pool.

 

It is highly unlikely that Jose Ceda is major league ready next year, and to the point that he is ready to be an above average major league reliever.

 

Those are not his actual numbers, those are his MLE (major league equivalents). Most players make the jump from AA to the majors. It is not highly unlikely that Ceda will pitch in the majors next year by any stretch of the imagination.

 

I did miss the part where you began with MLE and just looked right at the numbers. My mistake on that aspect.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

He's talking about the difference between wood and gregg for this year

 

which is stupid considering wood's contract will run another 3 years or so past this one

 

Just wait until Hendry signs Gregg longer term, and Wood winds up somewhere for reasonable dollars.

 

Come on IMB, you've seen this movie before.

 

It's still not a comparison at all. What is Gregg's top-end contact? 3-12? 3-15? We're still talking about a saving over well over $20 million dollars, and at least Gregg is a safe bet to still be pitching by the end of that deal.

 

Signing Woody would have been a stupid move. Not that that fact would make a Gregg long-term deal palatable, but the Woody ship had sailed, regardless.

 

Gregg's top end contract is way higher than 3-12. 3-24 probably would get him to sign this offseason. Otherwise he'll get 45 saves closing for a team that's good in spite of its management and get 5-60 next year. This is awful.

[17 Seconds]

Stop trying to ct like I think Ceda is some great player who we'll regret getting rid of.

 

That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?

 

Edit: Oh, and WHIP wasn't the only stat I was looking at for Gregg. It was just an example I gave because you kept asking for stats like yopu were unable to find them yourself.

 

HE'S NOT THAT GOOD

 

Ah, yes, my mistake. I did not know how to reference a WHIP stat, even though I brought up one. You, sir, are good.

 

"That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?"

 

Oh my god. BECAUSE HE HAS TRADE VALUE. This really isn't hard to understand. Everybody and their mothers understand how trade value works and that Gregg's value is less than Ceda's....except you.

[17 Seconds]

Wuertz and Gregg aren't very similar. Gregg's best pitch is his sinker, he doesn't have near the slider that Wuertz does and Wuertz doesn't have the same FB, change, splitter as Gregg. Even though Gregg has below avg. command/control it is still better than Wuertz.

 

I was talking about performance and statistics, not about how they get there

[imb]

 

He's talking about the difference between wood and gregg for this year

 

which is stupid considering wood's contract will run another 3 years or so past this one

 

Just wait until Hendry signs Gregg longer term, and Wood winds up somewhere for reasonable dollars.

 

Come on IMB, you've seen this movie before.

 

It's still not a comparison at all. What is Gregg's top-end contact? 3-12? 3-15? We're still talking about a saving over well over $20 million dollars, and at least Gregg is a safe bet to still be pitching by the end of that deal.

 

Signing Woody would have been a stupid move. Not that that fact would make a Gregg long-term deal palatable, but the Woody ship had sailed, regardless.

 

Gregg's top end contract is way higher than 3-12. 3-24 probably would get him to sign this offseason. Otherwise he'll get 45 saves closing for a team that's good in spite of its management and get 5-60 next year. This is awful.

 

i keep forgetting about those [expletive] saves

 

if 4-40 for woody is too much, hendry is not going to drop a stack half that big on gregg

[Soul]

 

He's talking about the difference between wood and gregg for this year

 

which is stupid considering wood's contract will run another 3 years or so past this one

 

Just wait until Hendry signs Gregg longer term, and Wood winds up somewhere for reasonable dollars.

 

Come on IMB, you've seen this movie before.

 

It's still not a comparison at all. What is Gregg's top-end contact? 3-12? 3-15? We're still talking about a saving over well over $20 million dollars, and at least Gregg is a safe bet to still be pitching by the end of that deal.

 

Signing Woody would have been a stupid move. Not that that fact would make a Gregg long-term deal palatable, but the Woody ship had sailed, regardless.

 

Gregg's top end contract is way higher than 3-12. 3-24 probably would get him to sign this offseason. Otherwise he'll get 45 saves closing for a team that's good in spite of its management and get 5-60 next year. This is awful.

 

I'll admit I'm running on emotion here, but this is exactly the kind of thing I fear.

[TheRaven]

Stop trying to ct like I think Ceda is some great player who we'll regret getting rid of.

 

That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?

 

Edit: Oh, and WHIP wasn't the only stat I was looking at for Gregg. It was just an example I gave because you kept asking for stats like yopu were unable to find them yourself.

 

HE'S NOT THAT GOOD

 

Ah, yes, my mistake. I did not know how to reference a WHIP stat, even though I brought up one. You, sir, are good.

 

"That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?"

 

Oh my god. BECAUSE HE HAS TRADE VALUE. This really isn't hard to understand. Everybody and their mothers understand how trade value works and that Gregg's value is less than Ceda's....except you.

 

Then take the time to show it to me. If you can take the time to respond to all of my messages, then surely that is not too much for you to do.

 

What are you basing this statement of absolute truth off of? Surely there must be a better reason than 'because I said it was'. That is all you have shown thus far.

 

And how can a player that isn't that great, that we won't miss, have such a high value that it is worth publicly trashing the GM over?

[cubsfan26]

Gregg a free agent after 2009 or 2010? Another way to look at it, is the Cubs could get a bunch of picks from Wood/Gregg and hopefully one of them at least replaces Ceda. Then you also save money to use towards other players this offseason. Gregg isn't as good as Wood, but it would have been hard to get a reliever much better then Gregg for the price.

[17 Seconds]

Stop trying to ct like I think Ceda is some great player who we'll regret getting rid of.

 

That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?

 

Edit: Oh, and WHIP wasn't the only stat I was looking at for Gregg. It was just an example I gave because you kept asking for stats like yopu were unable to find them yourself.

 

HE'S NOT THAT GOOD

 

Ah, yes, my mistake. I did not know how to reference a WHIP stat, even though I brought up one. You, sir, are good.

 

"That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?"

 

Oh my god. BECAUSE HE HAS TRADE VALUE. This really isn't hard to understand. Everybody and their mothers understand how trade value works and that Gregg's value is less than Ceda's....except you.

 

Then take the time to show it to me. If you can take the time to respond to all of my messages, then surely that is not too much for you to do.

 

What are you basing this statement of absolute truth off of? Surely there must be a better reason than 'because I said it was'. That is all you have shown thus far.

 

And how can a player that isn't that great, that we won't miss, have such a high value that it is worth publicly trashing the GM over?

 

Take time to show you what? His trade value? Are you being serious right now? How could I possibly do that?

 

How about this..... show me that he doesn't have the best trade value of any player ever... in the history of baseball. SHOW ME OR IT ISN'T TRUE.

 

Seriously, you're saying some pretty dumb things right now.

[mul21]

Soul, if you think the contract Woody is going to get will be cheap or reasonable, you either haven't been paying attention or don't have any idea about the concept of either term. He's going to get at least 3 years, probably 4 or 5, and more than likely $10 million per at the minimum.

 

Not cheap or reasonable for any "closer", let alone one with the injury history Wood has. Not a risk that can be taken with as many backloaded contacts for aging players this team has to deal with over the life of what that contract would be.

[nilodnayr]

And yeah, Gregg's pretty comfortably in the middle of the Type A pack, so as long as hes fairly decent again next year we should get nice draft pick compensation for him...silver lining.

[abuck1220]

i think the marlins got more for crummy ass kevin gregg than they did for willingham and olsen.

[JeffH]

Gregg a free agent after 2009 or 2010? Another way to look at it, is the Cubs could get a bunch of picks from Wood/Gregg and hopefully one of them at least replaces Ceda. Then you also save money to use towards other players this offseason. Gregg isn't as good as Wood, but it would have been hard to get a reliever much better then Gregg for the price.

 

After 2009. If someone can hide Hendry's checkbook so he doesn't re-sign Gregg, the trade could work out just fine.

 

Regardless, Hendry is dreadful.

[SouthSideRyan]

Pitchers currently in the system that aren't starters that I'd rather see on the mound than Kevin Gregg with the game on the line.

 

Marmol, Gooz, Samardzija, Cotts, Gaudin, Wuertz, Marshall(if he's not a starter)

 

THAT IS 7 GUYS

 

A FULL BULLPEN.

 

That's without even getting into whether Gregg is even better than Ceda right now.

[17 Seconds]

Stop trying to ct like I think Ceda is some great player who we'll regret getting rid of.

 

That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?

 

Edit: Oh, and WHIP wasn't the only stat I was looking at for Gregg. It was just an example I gave because you kept asking for stats like yopu were unable to find them yourself.

 

HE'S NOT THAT GOOD

 

Ah, yes, my mistake. I did not know how to reference a WHIP stat, even though I brought up one. You, sir, are good.

 

"That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?"

 

Oh my god. BECAUSE HE HAS TRADE VALUE. This really isn't hard to understand. Everybody and their mothers understand how trade value works and that Gregg's value is less than Ceda's....except you.

 

Then take the time to show it to me. If you can take the time to respond to all of my messages, then surely that is not too much for you to do.

 

What are you basing this statement of absolute truth off of? Surely there must be a better reason than 'because I said it was'. That is all you have shown thus far.

 

And how can a player that isn't that great, that we won't miss, have such a high value that it is worth publicly trashing the GM over?

 

Forgot to respond to this gem. dear god. I DID NOT SAY HE HAS GREAT TRADE VALUE. I SAID THAT HE HAS BETTER TRADE VALUE THAN KEVIN GREGG, WHICH IS NOT HARD TO DO.

 

The real question is why are you singling me out on this one, when virtually everybody else in this thread has agreed that it was too much to give up for gregg. Is everybody wrong and you're the one voice of sanity?

[mul21]

Also, enough with the $4-5 million per year savings. It's 4-5 in 2009 and then Gregg is off the books and that money can be allocated to other resources. If Wood gets $40 over 4 or $50 million over 5, it's a total savings of $35 or $45 million. Or and average of almost $9 million over the life of the deal.

 

This is assuming Hendry doesn't lose his mind and sign him long term.

[TheRaven]

Stop trying to ct like I think Ceda is some great player who we'll regret getting rid of.

 

That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?

 

Edit: Oh, and WHIP wasn't the only stat I was looking at for Gregg. It was just an example I gave because you kept asking for stats like yopu were unable to find them yourself.

 

HE'S NOT THAT GOOD

 

Ah, yes, my mistake. I did not know how to reference a WHIP stat, even though I brought up one. You, sir, are good.

 

"That is the whole point of this thread. You summed it up beautifully. If Ceda isn't that great of a player and we won't really regret getting rid of him, why is everyone up in arms about it?"

 

Oh my god. BECAUSE HE HAS TRADE VALUE. This really isn't hard to understand. Everybody and their mothers understand how trade value works and that Gregg's value is less than Ceda's....except you.

 

Then take the time to show it to me. If you can take the time to respond to all of my messages, then surely that is not too much for you to do.

 

What are you basing this statement of absolute truth off of? Surely there must be a better reason than 'because I said it was'. That is all you have shown thus far.

 

And how can a player that isn't that great, that we won't miss, have such a high value that it is worth publicly trashing the GM over?

 

Take time to show you what? His trade value? Are you being serious right now? How could I possibly do that?

 

How about this..... show me that he doesn't have the best trade value of any player ever... in the history of baseball. SHOW ME OR IT ISN'T TRUE.

 

Seriously, you're saying some pretty dumb things right now.

 

I can show you what relief minor league prospects typically get traded for. That is what trade value is. It shows what the market values of that type of player in that type of position.

 

Trust me, I am aware I say lots of dumb things. It does happen. I am just wondering how smart it is to say for fact that Ceda has more trade value than Gregg, and then come out and say you have no way to show that.

[cubsfan26]

If Ceda comes up and performs....

 

I don't even want to think about that.

 

Thats the risk here, but by replacing Gregg with Wood, we also get draft picks for letting Wood go. Then as long as Gregg is good next year he will most likely get us more draft picks. Odds are we will be able to replace Jose Ceda in our system. Hopefully the 4-6m we save, also goes to a good player that makes us better next season.

Edited November 13, 2008 by cubsfan26

[SouthSideRyan]

Pitchers currently in the system that aren't starters that I'd rather see on the mound than Kevin Gregg with the game on the line.

 

Marmol, Gooz, Samardzija, Cotts, Gaudin, Wuertz, Marshall(if he's not a starter)

 

THAT IS 7 GUYS

 

A FULL BULLPEN.

 

That's without even getting into whether Gregg is even better than Ceda right now.

 

What I'm trying to say is we may have literally been better off releasing Jose Ceda. The fact that that can even be a stretch of the imagination is mind-blowing.

[nilodnayr]

Gregg a free agent after 2009 or 2010? Another way to look at it, is the Cubs could get a bunch of picks from Wood/Gregg and hopefully one of them at least replaces Ceda. Then you also save money to use towards other players this offseason. Gregg isn't as good as Wood, but it would have been hard to get a reliever much better then Gregg for the price.

 

Hes a FA after 2009. Assuming we don't sign him long term and offer him arbitration (which we'd be fools not to), we would receive a sandwhich pick and possibly the signing teams 1st rounder. If the signing team picks in the top 15 (which means they are in the lower half of the standings...the type of team to sign a mediocre closer) then their pick is protected and we'd get their 2nd rounder. If that team signes a "beter" (as in higher points) Type A FA, then we'd get their 3rd rounder (probably most likely scenario). So we are probably looking at a back end of the sandwhich round pick and a 3rd rounder.

 

Its nice to have some more picks, but really after the first 15 or so, the talent drops way off. And the fact that Ceda dominated at AA means puts A TON of room inbetween what hes shown us and what a draft pick has to do to get to that level. Theres a lot more uncertainty there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can we wait to panic about signing Gregg long term until there's any indication that something like that is going to happen?

 

I agree with UK that we could use another reliever. Look at it this way, are we better off with Wood(long-term deal) + Ceda or Gregg + Jeremy Affeldt(shorter-than-Wood-term deal) + 2 picks this year + 2 picks next year? The main problem with this deal isn't necessarily that Gregg was the player acquired, it was that Gregg was acquired at the cost of Ceda.