Some stuff from Churchill Re: Harden/Burnett/Hudson etc....

[erik316wttn]

I think I like Hudson better than Harden/Burnett/etc. I'd go hard after him first.

 

Z/Hudson to counter Sheets/Sabathia? I could live with that.

[erik316wttn]

Is there any chance SF might be interested in dealing Cain?

 

None.

Thanks, Mr. Sabean!

 

Why would they trade him? They have a hell of a 1-2 with Lincecum and Cain, and can rebuild around those two. Why trade that away?

[USSoccer]

It would be so fun to watch Atlanta violate our farm system in a Hudson deal.

[Rob]

why on earth would anyone think that beane would be interested in colvin?

 

"billy, here's a big mistake we made, but really, he's a prospect."

 

colvin is not a prospect. he's an example of wilken out-thinking himself again, trying to find a diamond in field of bigger diamonds.

 

For what it's worth, Colvin's BA is certainly lower than it should be right now, given how many line drives he's hit. At minimum, it's about 20 points low. If the "unknown" batted ball types were liners (and they probably were), it's closer to 30 points low. Just for the sake of argument, his best-case adjusted line is around .270/.335/.415.

 

Is that line particularly good? No. But it gels much more closely with what most expectations were from him... and he'd still have some projection left to work with. He'd have some slight value in a trade as a 3rd or 4th piece.

 

Wait, why would they probably be liners? And who determines what a liner is anyway?

 

Colvin has been consistently poor at hitting baseballs as a professional. I have a hard time believing it's about bad luck.

 

Taken from the glossary of the fine folk over at minorleaguesplits.com/

 

U: Unknown. Most of the time, a batted-ball type is unknown when a play results in an error on an outfielder. I assume that most unknowns are line drives or fly balls, but the number is small enough to remain fairly unimportant.

 

And he's right, it's just 10 points of BA (6 unknown batted ball types all season for him so far). That's why I didn't feel terrible about calling them liners when giving off what I admitted was a best-case adjustment.

 

And I'm not entirely sure why you think he's been "consistently poor at hitting baseballs", he put up BA's of .291 and .306 in Tennessee and Daytona last year and has had solid IsoPs. Before this season, the complaint was never about his bat, it was about his patience (and possibly his defense)... a problem he seems to be making significant strides with. He just appears to need a good consolidation season.

[CubColtPacer]

i mean, he's trying to find the next alex rios when he should be trying to find the next player who can put up a .900 ops in any season.

 

So is Colvin a small diamond or coal?

 

Too early to tell. His K percentage and BB percentage are getting much better lately.

 

2007 K percentage: 20.5%

2008 April through May 15th K percentage: 28.9%

2008 May 16th through present K percentage: 11.96%

 

2007 BB percentage: 3.05%

2008 April through May 15th BB percentage: 7.54%

2008 May 16th through present BB percentage: 10.87%

 

Unfortuantely, at the same time his batting average is way down this year, and the loss of all those singles is really killing his slugging (his ISOP is also down a little bit, but the batting average being down is the bigger cause of the really bad numbers). So he was actually more productive last year, but his peripherals are a lot better these last couple months. It's obvious the Cubs are working with him quite a bit to make him more comfortable deeper in counts.

 

Now when he gets more comfortable, will the batting average go back up a ways? Next year maybe? It's really hard to tell. All we know for sure right now is that he has shown the ability to hit for average last year. He has shown the ability to have a good K/BB percentage over the last couple months. What he hasn't done yet is put it together, and while I'm willing to give him a year or two before I write him off due to his adjustments, he can't be an exciting guy until he starts to put it together.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It would be so fun to watch Atlanta violate our farm system in a Hudson deal.

 

Atlanta might be a good fit for a trade. They often value the same things in prospects that we do. They are just better at it and better at developing them.

[javy knows my name]

It would be so fun to watch Atlanta violate our farm system in a Hudson deal.

I agree. Sometimes Hendry seems so over-matched it's really entertaining

[Post Count Padder]

I can't wait to see how Hendry responds. It better be a Harden/Burnett/Harang and not Wolf/Maddux/Redding.

[jersey cubs fan]

why on earth would anyone think that beane would be interested in colvin?

 

"billy, here's a big mistake we made, but really, he's a prospect."

 

colvin is not a prospect. he's an example of wilken out-thinking himself again, trying to find a diamond in field of bigger diamonds.

 

For what it's worth, Colvin's BA is certainly lower than it should be right now, given how many line drives he's hit. At minimum, it's about 20 points low. If the "unknown" batted ball types were liners (and they probably were), it's closer to 30 points low. Just for the sake of argument, his best-case adjusted line is around .270/.335/.415.

 

Is that line particularly good? No. But it gels much more closely with what most expectations were from him... and he'd still have some projection left to work with. He'd have some slight value in a trade as a 3rd or 4th piece.

 

Wait, why would they probably be liners? And who determines what a liner is anyway?

 

Colvin has been consistently poor at hitting baseballs as a professional. I have a hard time believing it's about bad luck.

 

Taken from the glossary of the fine folk over at minorleaguesplits.com/

 

U: Unknown. Most of the time, a batted-ball type is unknown when a play results in an error on an outfielder. I assume that most unknowns are line drives or fly balls, but the number is small enough to remain fairly unimportant.

 

And he's right, it's just 10 points of BA (6 unknown batted ball types all season for him so far). That's why I didn't feel terrible about calling them liners when giving off what I admitted was a best-case adjustment.

 

And I'm not entirely sure why you think he's been "consistently poor at hitting baseballs", he put up BA's of .291 and .306 in Tennessee and Daytona last year and has had solid IsoPs. Before this season, the complaint was never about his bat, it was about his patience (and possibly his defense)... a problem he seems to be making significant strides with. He just appears to need a good consolidation season.

 

Does he not have a career minor league OPS of about 750? That's why I think he's been consistently bad at hitting the ball. I'm not talking about average. I don't care about average. I'm talking about production.

 

 

Again though, how do balls in play get labeled? Who or what makes the distinction? I mean, I've seen balls labeled as "line outs" that were hardly what I would call a line drive.

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

Is there any chance SF might be interested in dealing Cain?

 

None.

Thanks, Mr. Sabean!

 

Why would they trade him? They have a hell of a 1-2 with Lincecum and Cain, and can rebuild around those two. Why trade that away?

 

SF has an abundance of pitching and nothing position player wise. Cain does have good trade value and could bring in players that can help SF build up. I like Cain, but he has been erratic this year. He pitches an excellent game against the Cubs then goes out yesterday and has a bad outing against the Dodgers. It has been like that for him this year. So this could be an example of selling high.

 

Sabean has a two year deal (I think). So, he may feel the need to acquire some good talent (ie: good young hitters) in hopes that next year they can compete/win the division. Which isn't entirely impossible in that division. Although, it's possible that any move/non-move that Sabean makes will blow up in his face and I say this because he is Brian Sabean.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I can't wait to see how Hendry responds. It better be a Harden/Burnett/Harang and not Wolf/Maddux/Redding.

 

How about Jamie Moyer? Hendry obviously has a thing for former Cubs pitchers coming back. I wonder if he knows how to get a hold of Kevin Tapani.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

maybe Seattle will freak out and unload Felix Hernandez

[TruffleShuffle]

It would be so fun to watch Atlanta violate our farm system in a Hudson deal.

 

too late; hendry, wilken, fleita and co. have rape-proofed our minor league system.

[Rob]

 

Does he not have a career minor league OPS of about 750? That's why I think he's been consistently bad at hitting the ball. I'm not talking about average. I don't care about average. I'm talking about production.

 

Like it or not, his batting average is going to have an effect on his production... and in the context of this season, his bad luck on balls in play is resulting in his OPS being about 70 points lower than you'd expect. (30 points of missing batting average in this case translates to about 30 points of missing OBP and 40 points of SLG).

 

And considering that about 32% of his professional PA have come this season, the missing 70 points has a pretty huge effect on his career OPS too. My little back of the napkin calculation would have his career OPS at .788 instead of .765 if he hadn't been so unlucky this season. Would you respond differently if told we have a 22 year old CF having a bit of a down year in AA but with a career OPS near .800, making significant strides on his only real problem and a lot of untapped potential?

 

I'm not trying to say that Colvin is a knockout prospect here. He isn't. But passing him off as a bust who has never hit is downright irresponsible. He's still worth keeping an eye on in our system, if for no other reason than the fact that he is making progress in the one area of his game that was truly lacking before this season. Simply rediscovering his stroke from last season would make him a pretty nice prospect in a system without much in the way of positional talent.

 

Again though, how do balls in play get labeled? Who or what makes the distinction? I mean, I've seen balls labeled as "line outs" that were hardly what I would call a line drive.

 

And we've all seen hard hit liners that stay up just long enough and somebody calls it a fly ball. Or a liner that lands two feet in front of the SS playing all the way back in the grass, who nabs it on the short hop and all of a sudden it's called a ground ball. All in all, you're probably gonna break pretty close to even on that account over the course of the season.

 

I can't speak exactly as to where minorleaguesplits.com obtains their data, but I know a multitude of places (professional operations like STATS Inc and BIS) make their own calls on it... and they all tend to have fairly similar data, last I remember hearing.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

Does he not have a career minor league OPS of about 750? That's why I think he's been consistently bad at hitting the ball. I'm not talking about average. I don't care about average. I'm talking about production.

 

Like it or not, his batting average is going to have an effect on his production... and in the context of this season, his bad luck on balls in play is resulting in his OPS being about 70 points lower than you'd expect. (30 points of missing batting average in this case translates to about 30 points of missing OBP and 40 points of SLG).

 

And considering that about 32% of his professional PA have come this season, the missing 70 points has a pretty huge effect on his career OPS too. My little back of the napkin calculation would have his career OPS at .788 instead of .765 if he hadn't been so unlucky this season. Would you respond differently if told we have a 22 year old CF having a bit of a down year in AA but with a career OPS near .800, making significant strides on his only real problem and a lot of untapped potential?

 

I don't know what you mean by respond differently, but none of those numbers are impressive to me, so I'd probably think of him fairly close to how I think of him now.

 

 

I'm not trying to say that Colvin is a knockout prospect here. He isn't. But passing him off as a bust who has never hit is downright irresponsible. He's still worth keeping an eye on in our system, if for no other reason than the fact that he is making progress in the one area of his game that was truly lacking before this season. Simply rediscovering his stroke from last season would make him a pretty nice prospect in a system without much in the way of positional talent.

 

Yeah okay, umm where did I pass him off as a bust who has never hit? He's been a poor professional hitter. I don't care about his average, but his overall production has been disappointing. He's done nothing as a pro that suggests to me he's got a great future in front of him. I'm not saying he can't do anything good in the majors, but he's got a heck of a lot of improvement to do before I'd say he's got a great chance of succeeding.

 

 

I'm still unclear on how line drives are determined. Do they go by the official scorekeeper at each minor league stadium or do they have their own people charting things? I have a hard time believing those things even out over a course of a season. That type of data seems incredibly flawed to me.

[rawaction]

 

Does he not have a career minor league OPS of about 750? That's why I think he's been consistently bad at hitting the ball. I'm not talking about average. I don't care about average. I'm talking about production.

 

Like it or not, his batting average is going to have an effect on his production... and in the context of this season, his bad luck on balls in play is resulting in his OPS being about 70 points lower than you'd expect. (30 points of missing batting average in this case translates to about 30 points of missing OBP and 40 points of SLG).

 

And considering that about 32% of his professional PA have come this season, the missing 70 points has a pretty huge effect on his career OPS too. My little back of the napkin calculation would have his career OPS at .788 instead of .765 if he hadn't been so unlucky this season. Would you respond differently if told we have a 22 year old CF having a bit of a down year in AA but with a career OPS near .800, making significant strides on his only real problem and a lot of untapped potential?

 

I don't know what you mean by respond differently, but none of those numbers are impressive to me, so I'd probably think of him fairly close to how I think of him now.

 

 

I'm not trying to say that Colvin is a knockout prospect here. He isn't. But passing him off as a bust who has never hit is downright irresponsible. He's still worth keeping an eye on in our system, if for no other reason than the fact that he is making progress in the one area of his game that was truly lacking before this season. Simply rediscovering his stroke from last season would make him a pretty nice prospect in a system without much in the way of positional talent.

 

Yeah okay, umm where did I pass him off as a bust who has never hit? He's been a poor professional hitter. I don't care about his average, but his overall production has been disappointing. He's done nothing as a pro that suggests to me he's got a great future in front of him. I'm not saying he can't do anything good in the majors, but he's got a heck of a lot of improvement to do before I'd say he's got a great chance of succeeding.

 

 

I'm still unclear on how line drives are determined. Do they go by the official scorekeeper at each minor league stadium or do they have their own people charting things? I have a hard time believing those things even out over a course of a season. That type of data seems incredibly flawed to me.

 

To be fair, you did say he's not good at hitting baseballs. His past batting averages shows he's good at hitting baseballs. His past OPS just shows he's not that good at hitting baseballs hard.

 

:blink:

[Jehrico]

Colvins only 22 years old, and while he doesnt hold any trade value at this time, he's still young enough to pan out. I know Ryan Harvey, Brian Dopirek, and Luis Montanez were all once 22 as well, but that doesnt mean that Colvin will go that rout.

Guys like Soriano and Pujols go from 21 to 23 or 24. They don't do 22.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Would a deal of Pie, Ceda, and Castillo get the A's attention?

[rawaction]

Would a deal of Pie, Ceda, and Castillo get the A's attention?

 

I think so. May take 1 more player though.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Would a deal of Pie, Ceda, and Castillo get the A's attention?

 

I think so. May take 1 more player though.

 

What about Pie, Ceda, Castillo, and Hart? Enough to get it done?

[Hall7810]

Phil Rogers pimping trading for Maddux on Tribune Live. Also confirmed The Cubs are really interested in Wolf and Harden.

[rawaction]

Would a deal of Pie, Ceda, and Castillo get the A's attention?

 

I think so. May take 1 more player though.

 

What about Pie, Ceda, Castillo, and Hart? Enough to get it done?

 

I don't know. Hard to imagine the Cubs making a deal without involving a close to ML ready starter. Hart is more of a reliever to me. Maybe Pie, Ceda, Castillo and Veal, with a throw-in prospect coming from the A's?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Would a deal of Pie, Ceda, and Castillo get the A's attention?

 

I think so. May take 1 more player though.

 

What about Pie, Ceda, Castillo, and Hart? Enough to get it done?

 

I don't know. Hard to imagine the Cubs making a deal without involving a close to ML ready starter. Hart is more of a reliever to me. Maybe Pie, Ceda, Castillo and Veal, with a throw-in prospect coming from the A's?

 

Well then what about Colvin, Castillo, Hill, and Fox?

[Magnetic Curses]

i mean, he's trying to find the next alex rios when he should be trying to find the next player who can put up a .900 ops in any season.

 

So is Colvin a small diamond or coal?

 

colvin was a piece of coal in the first round. a pick made out of the collective hubris of wilken and hendry, just as jeremy brown was picked out of arrogance and pride. the difference is that brown was one of like 7 picks whereas colvin was all alone.

 

we're crazy if we think that beane will be fooled into thinking that he has any value beyond perception.

Edited July 7, 2008 by Stannis

[Little Slide Rooter]

Phil Rogers pimping trading for Maddux on Tribune Live. Also confirmed The Cubs are really interested in Wolf and Harden.

 

That gets me that they say the Cubs are interested in Wolf and Harden, like their of equal value. It's like saying that I really want this new Audi, but if I cant afford it, I've had my eye on a '98 Kia Spectra at the lemon lot down the road.